Real Estate Questions for experts (that's all of you)

[armadillophil]

I think it will be triggered by an unforeseen event. At this point who knows what it will be, Chinks could release another virus, Biden dies and the whore takes over. Who knows but this market is not normal.

[RMW]

No crash coming anytime soon, buy as much as possible now.

[friscopaint]

True, but the replacement fee will be the same, unless you downgrade.

I'll be leaving the area

[sharpstick35]

most of the transplants are from the west coast where the prices are insane even in their supressed economy. the austin s/a area is hot for that reason. bay area people offering 100k over asking price because they have cash in hand from selling where they are at. north and east of there ae the transplants from the pacific northwest, mostly oregon. they are buying up the 2-5 acre lots

[ken]

The "crash" mentality is from people that think that all booms are followed by a crash. The most recent real estate crash was 2008 but was caused by crazy loose sub-prime lending. Though $100 per barrel oil at the time largely insulated Texas from the sub-prime crash.
Current mortgage lending underwriting is fairly strict.

Certainly the current real estate market will slow down at some point. This would likely be caused by a general economic slowdown or rise in interest rates.

[Deadfall65]

In my opinion, and that’s all it is, is once the rent and mortgage forbearance is lifted allowing evictions to occur, you will have a surge of housing come into the market within a few months time period. Those that truly can’t afford rent/mortgage won’t be able to go out and move into a new place so most will end up moving in with family and/or friends. The last report I heard stated 2 million households nationwide have not been paying rent/mortgage. According to the census bureau, there are currently about 140 million housing units in the US. 2 million represents just over 1% of all households.


There are still a LOT of other variables though that can push housing one way or another. One pattern that seems to be emerging though is a lot of similarities between the 2008 crash and today. Oh, you can’t afford it? No problem, we will just stretch out your payments for a few more years.

This is kinda what I predict as well.
But I thought this a year ago and it hasn’t happened yet so I guess we’ll see.


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[flywise]

Maybe it will crash when the millions who won’t get the jab get fired and can’t make their mortgage payments.

[Maddox]

Wife and I downsized and just put our house in The Woodlands up on the market last weekend. Its crazy seeing the variations in $/sqft. You can tell who got bad advice on their pricing or who just wanted to sell it quickly.

MLS# 42102769 if anyone is interested in a house in The Woodlands.

[boy wonder]

No expert, not even by TBH standards , but how does the West Coast market stay so high with a seemingly exodus of people with money?

[91cavgt]

Well, Zillow has stopped buying houses, then they laid off 25% of their employees!!


They say they stopped buying houses because of a lack of labor and parts to flip the houses. However, I highly doubt that is the truth. If it was the truth then why lay off so many people? I have insider info because I did sell my house to Zillow. On August 30th is when the papers were signed. The house was only 1 year old and needed nothing at all to flip. It even had upgrades that other houses in the area do not have. But yet, 2 months later the house has never been put back up for sale at all.



Since I last posted in this thread, I’m now seeing price reductions on houses being common place around here. Time on market has also gone up. All of these signs point towards us now being past the peak of the housing market. The bubble has not popped yet, but we are past the peak.


The good news for some of you is that small markets lag behind large markets. So, while the peak is past in large markets, small markets are peaking right now.

[kyle1974]

Real Estate Questions for experts (that's all of you)

I think it will decline because of the same reason I thought it would crash in back 2008. “Crash” probably isn’t the right term, but you could also ask, what’s keeping it so ridiculously propped up?

When new people can’t afford to get into the housing market, it’s not sustainable. You have young people going into the job market right now making above average pay that can’t afford to buy a house of any sort.

Despite how many realtors jump up and down talking about how wonderful higher prices that they base their 6% terrorism fee on is, it simply is not sustainable when people die everyday, and people who historically entered the house ownership market can’t afford to because of hyper inflated prices.

Markets here or there might be ok, but nation wide the average price is going to drop

[Maddox]

Zillow was using AI and Analytics to but houses. They came out and said their algorithm was wrong and they over bought/over spent.

Well, Zillow has stopped buying houses, then they laid off 25% of their employees!!


They say they stopped buying houses because of a lack of labor and parts to flip the houses. However, I highly doubt that is the truth. If it was the truth then why lay off so many people? I have insider info because I did sell my house to Zillow. On August 30th is when the papers were signed. The house was only 1 year old and needed nothing at all to flip. It even had upgrades that other houses in the area do not have. But yet, 2 months later the house has never been put back up for sale at all.



Since I last posted in this thread, I’m now seeing price reductions on houses being common place around here. Time on market has also gone up. All of these signs point towards us now being past the peak of the housing market. The bubble has not popped yet, but we are past the peak.


The good news for some of you is that small markets lag behind large markets. So, while the peak is past in large markets, small markets are peaking right now.

[ctom87]

I don't have a strong understanding of economics or housing markets, but I live in a blue collar neighborhood. The neighbors are all fairly rough around the edges. One neighbor came up and asked me to spot him $5 for a joint because the other neighbor next to him only sells them 2 for $10. So this guy didn't have a car, a job, or $10 in his name. Kinda irrelevant and judgemental, but here's the 2nd part of my point...

The houses in my neighborhood are small and only sit on about 1/10th an acre. The homes are about 20 years old, but since they were built, they have doubled and probably sometimes tripled in price. There are currently 1900 sq ft homes selling for $340k+ and only being listed for similar prices.

Like I said, I am not an economist and haven't paid much attention, but that feels very bubbly to me.

Edit...not to mention at some point people's budgets stop accounting for how much inflation and gas causes everyday items to skyrocket. At some point people with less than $10, no job and a $350,000 mortgage will miss a payment.

[91cavgt]

Zillow was using AI and Analytics to but houses. They came out and said their algorithm was wrong and they over bought/over spent.

Their algorithm was wrong, but yet they have more info than almost anyone in regards to real estate. But they still missed it? To me that screams the market has passed its peak. If housing prices were to keep rising then Zillow would not be having any problems right now. So this is still evidence that shows we are now past the peak.

[Chad C]

Seems like the current rate of inflation should/will create a problem for the market. Up 0.9% in the month of October alone...