*Winter Weather Coming*

[eradicator]

Man give him a break, he is usually suspect and not one given to hype in these cold snaps. He is pointing out that forecast models are not grasping the cold and are warmer than reality, moreover they aren’t adjusting to real data. This due in part to how models collect data and the formulas they use to determine the 2M temps. Temps are measured much higher in the atmosphere and formulas are used to extrapolate the surface temps. That works over much of the country where the cold air mass tends to be thicker. But down here, especially the closer to sea level you get there is often a very thin layer of much colder air at the surface that the models cannot predict.

Bottom line is forecasts today were a bust.

I'm giving him a hard time. He's my go to weather consultant. I don't even watch the local weather anymore. I'm ready for some winter weather finally!

[SaltwaterSlick]

Nasty morning north side of Houston this morning... Misty/foggy and zero wind. Temp was 64 driving in from the Cleveland area... Lot of moisture... If this front hits while this moisture is hangin' round, it's gonna be a rodeo for sure...

[unclefish]

From the Ft Worth NWS:

Quick Summary: Arctic outbreak will last through early to mid
next week. The coldest conditions will be Sunday through Tuesday,
when lows in the single digits to teens, and highs in the 20s are
expected. There will be multiple opportunities for freezing or
frozen precipitation: Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday night-Monday.

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period, as
isentropic lift above the frontal layer persists out ahead of the
shortwave off to the west. The better lift and subsequent chances
for precipitation will shift south during the day as the shortwave
drops southeast across Mexico. Unfortunately it looks like rain
falling in areas that are below freezing may last as late as
midday Thursday, which means additional accumulations of freezing
rain will remain possible Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty as to exactly where the freezing line will lie and
will need to closely monitor temperature and precip timing trends
in later forecasts. Either way, there will likely be some ongoing
travel impacts on area roads on Thursday, particularly for areas
in the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.

The cold rain will move south of the Central Texas counties
Thursday evening and will be followed by the next push of arctic
air. Friday highs will hold mainly in the 30s, and will be
followed by lows from the teens in the northwest to right around
freezing across the south. The next shortwave will swing across
the region on Saturday, bringing a quick shot of sleet or snow to
the area. Limited moisture should preclude any accumulations. The
more significant outcome will be a stronger surge of arctic air,
dropping temperatures into the 20s Saturday evening. Sunday
morning lows will bottom out in the teens with some single digits
possible across the northwestern zones. North winds of 15-25 MPH
will yield wind chills from the single digits to below zero.

This will start the 3 or so day stretch of some of the most frigid
conditions this area has experienced in decades. Meanwhile, the
conveyor belt of mid level disturbances will continue as the next
wave passes overhead Sunday night through Monday. Run to run and
model to model consistency continues with regard to widespread
good chances for measurable snow with this system. Considerable
variability still exist, however, regarding accumulations, so will
continue holding off any mention of heavy snow at this time.
Whatever the case, another cold air push will follow as the system
exits to the east Monday night. This will keep the streak of teens
to single digit lows and sub-freezing highs going through at least
Tuesday. It looks like a gradual warming trend should commence mid
to late next week as the arctic high begins to finally shift east
of the Plains.Quick Summary: Arctic outbreak will last through early to mid
next week. The coldest conditions will be Sunday through Tuesday,
when lows in the single digits to teens, and highs in the 20s are
expected. There will be multiple opportunities for freezing or
frozen precipitation: Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday night-Monday.

Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the period, as
isentropic lift above the frontal layer persists out ahead of the
shortwave off to the west. The better lift and subsequent chances
for precipitation will shift south during the day as the shortwave
drops southeast across Mexico. Unfortunately it looks like rain
falling in areas that are below freezing may last as late as
midday Thursday, which means additional accumulations of freezing
rain will remain possible Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty as to exactly where the freezing line will lie and
will need to closely monitor temperature and precip timing trends
in later forecasts. Either way, there will likely be some ongoing
travel impacts on area roads on Thursday, particularly for areas
in the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory.

The cold rain will move south of the Central Texas counties
Thursday evening and will be followed by the next push of arctic
air. Friday highs will hold mainly in the 30s, and will be
followed by lows from the teens in the northwest to right around
freezing across the south. The next shortwave will swing across
the region on Saturday, bringing a quick shot of sleet or snow to
the area. Limited moisture should preclude any accumulations. The
more significant outcome will be a stronger surge of arctic air,
dropping temperatures into the 20s Saturday evening. Sunday
morning lows will bottom out in the teens with some single digits
possible across the northwestern zones. North winds of 15-25 MPH
will yield wind chills from the single digits to below zero.

This will start the 3 or so day stretch of some of the most frigid
conditions this area has experienced in decades. Meanwhile, the
conveyor belt of mid level disturbances will continue as the next
wave passes overhead Sunday night through Monday. Run to run and
model to model consistency continues with regard to widespread
good chances for measurable snow with this system. Considerable
variability still exist, however, regarding accumulations, so will
continue holding off any mention of heavy snow at this time.
Whatever the case, another cold air push will follow as the system
exits to the east Monday night. This will keep the streak of teens
to single digit lows and sub-freezing highs going through at least
Tuesday. It looks like a gradual warming trend should commence mid
to late next week as the arctic high begins to finally shift east
of the Plains.

[Johnny]

I will try to chime in on this over the next few days but time is limited for me at the moment.

The short version: If you have exposed pipes, rap them. Also, it doesn't take much ice to weigh down branches which will snap and hit power lines. Make sure you have a back up plan if electricity goes out. Similiair to hurricane prep but instead of it being hot n muggy with no electricity, it's going to be cold as hell. lol I'm hoping more of the models start trending more towards snow than ice. I cannot stand freezing rain...just makes a serious mess of things.

Most of Texas looks to be impacted by a big winter storm in some way starting Sunday evening and into Monday. More details over the next few days.

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[dphillips62]

Supposed to head to Fredericksburg on the 17th-19th for my Wife's birthday hope everything is thawed out by then? I don't drive well on ice and she hates cold weather.

[.243 WSSM]

Yes its good to plan for the winter storm sun-mon but I think north texas needs to be planning for a possible ice storm tonight and have a contingency plan in effect. We are past forecasts and need to be doing nowcasts and look at current conditions and see how past models handled them and what we can actually expect vs purely model hugging. NWS has dallas reaching 35. We are very likely done seeing above freezing temps and will most likely remain below freezing from today thru next Wednesday. So those in north texas should already be in prep mode. Regarding tonight the radar reflectivity is quite impressive and we could see not thunder sleet but thunder freezing rain. The local guys all want to put the freeze line tonight into play but they are still model hugging as far as temps and the freeze line tonight will be well south of what they are speculating. Be careful late tonight and tomorrow. Looking very treacherous on the roadways the way things are shaping up.

[rut-ro]

Just went and bought all the pex, copper , and pvc I could find. Gonna make my money back on them ammo gouges next week. Just kidding. Wrap your pipes, and protect your pets.

[Mike D]

This is what it already looks like in north Texas. Trees starting to ice over from freezing drizzle/fog.




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[breederbuck33]

I just checked my weather for Beaumont, and we're looking at 24 on Monday... Might sound silly to you guys, but if we get ice on the roads in BMT you might as well shut it down! lol Ya'll stay safe out there!

[Grant2]

Man I hate ice storms. Last one we had was in 1997 and my guys working for months picking up all the trees that snapped. Y’all be safe and stay home if all possible.

[Playa]

Yes its good to plan for the winter storm sun-mon but I think north texas needs to be planning for a possible ice storm tonight and have a contingency plan in effect. We are past forecasts and need to be doing nowcasts and look at current conditions and see how past models handled them and what we can actually expect vs purely model hugging. NWS has dallas reaching 35. We are very likely done seeing above freezing temps and will most likely remain below freezing from today thru next Wednesday. So those in north texas should already be in prep mode. Regarding tonight the radar reflectivity is quite impressive and we could see not thunder sleet but thunder freezing rain. The local guys all want to put the freeze line tonight into play but they are still model hugging as far as temps and the freeze line tonight will be well south of what they are speculating. Be careful late tonight and tomorrow. Looking very treacherous on the roadways the way things are shaping up.

Looks like the finally issued a winter weather advisory for basically Waco north for freezing rain, but it’s still referring to it as drizzle to light rain.

[perow]

Kinda cold here in garland-lol

[aclark0495]

Kinda cold here in garland-lol

I like your style. Your truck looks like mine. A little dust adds character.

[sasqy]

A friend working up there sent me this !

[bloodstick]

Houston News saying teens in Houston early next week. Legit or just for views? My weather bug app still showing mid 20’s for the low and i’m north of town in Huntsville.






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