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Old 07-03-2021, 08:32 PM   #1
Biggs
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Default The Current Real Estate Market

Is insane. Just insane.

Iím selling a lower-middle class home an hour north of Austin, nothing real fancy. Out of state buyers offering $30k-Over asking price CASH offers is commonplace now.

1. Lower-middle class families are now priced out of the current market.
2. Lower-middle class families that already own a home will have their property taxes skyrocket, edging them more into lower class.
3. Skyrocketing property (ďvaluesĒ) taxes will get passed from Landlords through to Tenants and Renters, driving families to less disposable income or moving to cheaper areas that arenít experiencing the insanity.

Is this the new norm? Or will it settle out?
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Old 07-03-2021, 08:51 PM   #2
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I hope it stays like for another 6 months lol. I'm doing some minor remodeling right now and fixing to try and sell our house while it's crazy like this. 10 year old houses in my area are being listed for $165/sq ft...if people are paying that kinda coin for a house, I'll sell mine tomorrow and figure out what to do afterwards..
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Old 07-03-2021, 08:51 PM   #3
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No we have been marching in this direction a long time. My twin brothers best friends hung with the Clintons for the last 40 years. All of this was planned a long time ago..............
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Old 07-03-2021, 09:13 PM   #4
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No we have been marching in this direction a long time. My twin brothers best friends hung with the Clintons for the last 40 years. All of this was planned a long time ago..............
Would love to hear more on this
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Old 07-03-2021, 09:15 PM   #5
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It's crazy

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Old 07-03-2021, 09:16 PM   #6
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Everything goes in cycles. Good times and bad. It's just we've been in good times so long many younger people don't know the cycle.

Long ago it was common for people to actually consider what gas would cost to go on vacation..or food. And actually look at prices when at stores. Maybe even buy generic. Teachers back then really made squat compared to today. Most have to save pennies to make house payments each month and had no money left for iphones and cable.

I see more waste these days than I ever thought possible. That's about to change IMO
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Old 07-03-2021, 09:25 PM   #7
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Everything goes in cycles. Good times and bad. It's just we've been in good times so long many younger people don't know the cycle.

Long ago it was common for people to actually consider what gas would cost to go on vacation..or food. And actually look at prices when at stores. Maybe even buy generic. Teachers back then really made squat compared to today. Most have to save pennies to make house payments each month and had no money left for iphones and cable.

I see more waste these days than I ever thought possible. That's about to change IMO
Sad but more than likely true.

Saw a report that said there were 5 million millionaires created in 2020 despite the pandemic, same as 2019.

My guess is people in the top 20% all over the world are gonna be just fine but those at the bottom 20% or 30% are going to get even further behind. It doesn't matter if they raise minimum wage from $9 an hour to $15 or even $20 per hour if a median house price goes from $200,000 to $425,000. Think about it... the $20 guy couldn't afford the $200,000 house.

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Old 07-03-2021, 09:51 PM   #8
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I sure need to get mine on the market!!!


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Old 07-03-2021, 10:02 PM   #9
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We are taking the gamble and selling.. temporary stay with the in laws. Hoping we donít get priced out of our market. Hard to turn away from prices being paid - we had a move in our future within 5 years, this just accelerated it.

Not uncommon to see $200/sq ft sales price in our area for a regular old cookie cutter home.


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Old 07-03-2021, 10:11 PM   #10
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Sad but more than likely true.

Saw a report that said there were 5 million millionaires created in 2020 despite the pandemic, same as 2019.

My guess is people in the top 20% all over the world are gonna be just fine but those at the bottom 20% or 30% are going to get even further behind. It doesn't matter if they raise minimum wage from $9 an hour to $15 or even $20 per hour if a median house price goes from $200,000 to $425,000. Think about it... the $20 guy couldn't afford the $200,000 house.

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The erosion of wages (adjusted for inflation) over the last 40-50 years is directly tied to the shift from single income homes to double income homes. When you almost double the percentage of citizens in the work force, you lose value as an individual to a company. Add that to increased house sizes and expected amenities from the second income over the last 25 years, and you price normal people out of the market.

The current market is the wave of densely populated liberal cities shedding citizens (who unfortunately bring their politics with them) for more favorable cost of living options.


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Old 07-03-2021, 10:47 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
Is insane. Just insane.

Iím selling a lower-middle class home an hour north of Austin, nothing real fancy. Out of state buyers offering $30k-Over asking price CASH offers is commonplace now.

1. Lower-middle class families are now priced out of the current market.
2. Lower-middle class families that already own a home will have their property taxes skyrocket, edging them more into lower class.
3. Skyrocketing property (ďvaluesĒ) taxes will get passed from Landlords through to Tenants and Renters, driving families to less disposable income or moving to cheaper areas that arenít experiencing the insanity.

Is this the new norm? Or will it settle out?
One and two are correct. #3. That's not how the market works. Supply and demand sets rental rates. Not land owner expenses. Rents are generally flat due to an increase in supply of new apartments. I own a number of rentals and every year my net worth goes up while my net income actually goes down.
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Old 07-03-2021, 11:08 PM   #12
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I have seen houses with less acreage than mine sell for a couple hundred grand more than I paid for my place 3 years ago. I would bet I could easily sell my place for double what I paid for it.
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Old 07-03-2021, 11:20 PM   #13
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Itís one of two things. 1. Itís a short lived bump or bubble in the market 2. The cost of living in Texas will no longer be low and it will permanently progress towards areas like Chicago, LA, Denver , etc..


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Old 07-03-2021, 11:34 PM   #14
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Yep. Iím afraid the secret is out on Texas and this is the new norm. As a builder I have been hearing about the cheap cost to build in Texas for at least 10 years. Those days are about to be gone my friends!


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Itís one of two things. 1. Itís a short lived bump or bubble in the market 2. The cost of living in Texas will no longer be low and it will permanently progress towards areas like Chicago, LA, Denver , etc..


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Old 07-03-2021, 11:58 PM   #15
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Default The Current Real Estate Market

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Originally Posted by RJK70 View Post
Itís one of two things. 1. Itís a short lived bump or bubble in the market 2. The cost of living in Texas will no longer be low and it will permanently progress towards areas like Chicago, LA, Denver , etc..


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Yep I think itís the latter. Even at these prices, land and homes are still a huge bargain for the people moving here.
We will be selling our home next April. Iím going to be selfish and hope home prices continue to rise as expected, but at the same time, hope building prices are a lot cheaper a year from now.


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Old 07-04-2021, 12:09 AM   #16
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I sold a house last month. Listed at 549 and sold for 598. Iím listing my rental at the end of July. Iím gonna put that money into a place I can shoot a deer on.
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Old 07-04-2021, 12:21 AM   #17
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My sister sold her house in Steiner Ranch(Austin) in the last month. They bought it for approximately $700k a few year ago so it was a nice place. Listed it for $1.1 million, had a ton of offers and accepted a $1.37 million cash offer on it within the first week of listing. Absolutely insane. They work from home so now they just have to decide where they want to move to.
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Old 07-04-2021, 06:30 AM   #18
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Our first home we bought was a small 3/2 with detached 2 car garage. Right at 1325 sq ft
We bought it in 2001 for 78k & sold it in 2012 for 97k
It just hit the market for 195k
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Old 07-04-2021, 06:52 AM   #19
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It makes me wonder what I could get for mine.. but makes me worry how difficult it would be to find another.

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Old 07-04-2021, 07:07 AM   #20
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We sold last October and buying this month. Horrible timing but that’s the way life worked out. Had my equity invested for that time so it wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been.

Don’t know if it’s a bubble or a new norm and don’t really care as we intend to live in this house a long time.
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Old 07-04-2021, 08:00 AM   #21
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We tried to sell while the market is high and build...didn’t realize covid would make material prices skyrocket. So we are living in our rent house waiting on material prices to normalize somewhat so that we can build on our lot. I’m hoping in another 3 months we can start. It’s insane out there right now. We bought the house next door to our rent house and are renovating it. We already have renters lined up for when we move into the house next door.
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Old 07-04-2021, 08:04 AM   #22
Johnny Dangerr
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I just did the math and we could barely make a 15 year note for this house if we bought it at todays price. {double what we paid}
My kids and grandkids could not.
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Old 07-04-2021, 08:05 AM   #23
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No we have been marching in this direction a long time. My twin brothers best friends hung with the Clintons for the last 40 years. All of this was planned a long time ago..............
George Clinton???
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Old 07-04-2021, 08:14 AM   #24
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George Clinton???
No Bill & Hillary in London and New York

My twin was a International Baccalaureate professor. He new a bunch of confused people....................
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Old 07-04-2021, 08:14 AM   #25
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had a ton of offers and accepted a $1.37 million cash offer on it within the first week of listing. Absolutely insane.
Some of it is migration and investors but remember the Dow was 8,000 in 2009 and the Nasdaq was 2,000. Right now Dow is 34k and Nasdaq is 14k. That's 4 fold and 7 fold increases for those that were invested and kept investing the entire time. Even more for those who bought Facebook at $18 a share or Tesla or Amazon.

There have been some pullbacks here and there but if a person followed an aggressive plan of investing, was job hopping for better opportunities and more money, and then buying and selling their houses for profit 2-3 times over the last 10-12 years things should be looking quite good right now in their portfolio.



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Old 07-04-2021, 09:08 AM   #26
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If you sell your house you sure better have a good plan for a place to go. A dude could wind up homeless!
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Old 07-04-2021, 09:16 AM   #27
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I cant imagine this being sustainable. The prices in Austin have already made it unaffordable for a large group of people and that number will continue to grow. Once demand goes down because the group of people can afford the houses is so small is when we will see the prices go down........... or god forbid the dow drops 50%.
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Old 07-04-2021, 09:32 AM   #28
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The median home price in Austin/Round Rock for May 2021 was $465k. We have a massive migration of East and West Coast people coming to town where their median home price is over $1m; sometimes $1.3m depending on which market you look at. And that $1m median home in San Fran is not as nice as the $500k home here in Austin. Many real estate experts have said for years that Austin is undervalued and this correction was due.

Of the 56 headquarters that have left California this year alone, half of them are coming to Texas; and half the ones coming to Texas are coming to Austin.

One good sign for buyers is the past two months has been the lowest number of mortgage applications since pre-Covid; I’m definitely seeing buyer fatigue set in and homes that had 20-30 offers in April are now seeing 5-10 offers.

I think we will see the market level off (not decline) in the next 6 months or so. Which for Austin, a normal market is a Seller’s market. I’m curious what next spring/summer will be like. Is there going to be another big wave/push in the market.

In the meantime, somebody come purchase the 1 acre lot listing I have on Lake Austin I’ll cut you a deal. 3963Westlake.com
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Old 07-04-2021, 06:02 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Biggs View Post
Is insane. Just insane.

I’m selling a lower-middle class home an hour north of Austin, nothing real fancy. Out of state buyers offering $30k-Over asking price CASH offers is commonplace now.

1. Lower-middle class families are now priced out of the current market.
2. Lower-middle class families that already own a home will have their property taxes skyrocket, edging them more into lower class.
3. Skyrocketing property (“values”) taxes will get passed from Landlords through to Tenants and Renters, driving families to less disposable income or moving to cheaper areas that aren’t experiencing the insanity.

Is this the new norm? Or will it settle out?
X2

But I believe the market will re-set, and some or most will loose money in the long run..

Last edited by day0082; 07-04-2021 at 06:04 PM. Reason: Adding word
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Old 07-04-2021, 06:31 PM   #30
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X2

But I believe the market will re-set, and some or most will loose money in the long run..
What they going to "loose" and where are you getting your info?

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Old 07-04-2021, 11:44 PM   #31
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Count me in!
Iím gonna put my place on the market in the next week, and canít wait.
Iím hoping for $135/sqft or more.
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Old 07-04-2021, 11:50 PM   #32
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Was just looking at B/CS numbers. Might just be gettgetting rolling for us. Active listings have fallen off a cliff.

https://www.bcsrealtor.com/index.php...y=forConsumers
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Old 07-05-2021, 06:25 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Everything goes in cycles. Good times and bad. It's just we've been in good times so long many younger people don't know the cycle.

Long ago it was common for people to actually consider what gas would cost to go on vacation..or food. And actually look at prices when at stores. Maybe even buy generic. Teachers back then really made squat compared to today. Most have to save pennies to make house payments each month and had no money left for iphones and cable.

I see more waste these days than I ever thought possible. That's about to change IMO
I agree with this totally.
My grandparents lived through the Depression and didnít waste anything.
We were poor but had a good life when we were kids because we lived in the country and had countless acres to roam (hunt and fish, trap) nobody cared back then.
I learned the lesson of life from my grandparents. If you donít need it donít buy it.
Now all my grandkids over 21/2 years old has an I phone.
The Depression was a hard time for lots of people but it made people learn how to save and in the long run made the country stronger
I believe at the rate the country is going handing out money for nothing will cause a lot of damage in the future.
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Old 07-05-2021, 07:51 AM   #34
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Count me in!
Iím gonna put my place on the market in the next week, and canít wait.
Iím hoping for $135/sqft or more.
Houses in my neighborhood are going for $160-$200 sq. ft
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Old 07-05-2021, 08:00 AM   #35
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Not just the housing market, but the vehicle market as well. Weird financial roller coaster this country is on following a global pandemic and record unemployment.
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Old 07-05-2021, 08:35 AM   #36
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Bubble.
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Old 07-05-2021, 08:40 AM   #37
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Count me in!
Iím gonna put my place on the market in the next week, and canít wait.
Iím hoping for $135/sqft or more.
Where are you moving to? I hope you already have your next home

Good luck on the sale.

BP
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Old 07-05-2021, 08:49 AM   #38
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Got a call yesterday about my place and it's not on the market officially.....shot her $1.35 million and they didn't bat an eye. We had a debate over whether we are leaving money on the table or not but it's a game of hot potato now, sell for 1.35 or sit and get 2 million or goes bust and get $500,000......I'm risk averse at this point in my life.
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Old 07-05-2021, 08:51 AM   #39
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What goes up must come down. Interest rates will start to rise and cool the market back down. When exactly that happens, unsure. But its coming and be prepared.
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Old 07-05-2021, 08:54 AM   #40
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Got a call yesterday about my place and it's not on the market officially.....shot her $1.35 million and they didn't bat an eye. We had a debate over whether we are leaving money on the table or not but it's a game of hot potato now, sell for 1.35 or sit and get 2 million or goes bust and get $500,000......I'm risk averse at this point in my life.
Congratulations! Good for you guys.

Wife and I looked at a house in Ft. Collins in 2012 for $675k. Didn't buy it because we were concerned about having "that big of a mortgage". Same house went on the market and sold for $950k three years later.

Lesson learned. Sit on the sidelines and whine or get in the game. Risk = Reward.



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Old 07-05-2021, 08:55 AM   #41
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If you do sell, then what? Find a rental and ride it out? I have 2 homes currently and have been talking about selling both. I guess renting is the best option? We are empty nesters but I have 2 big dogs for pets. If not for them I would park our class A in an RV park and ride it out there.
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Old 07-05-2021, 09:05 AM   #42
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We had an opportunity to buy our dream property at very fair market value recently. We had moved in with Mom to take care of her and our house had been empty for a year. I called the realtor. It sold before it even went on the market for what I wanted as is cash no inspections. I probably left money on the table but it was gone immediately. That money enabled us to buy our dream property. When the market crashes or at least comes back to normal I’ll buy a small house with a small yard or maybe a condo. Our other house was a maintenance hog and I don’t want to repeat all that. How long y’all think this housing market is going to stay crazy?
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Old 07-05-2021, 09:09 AM   #43
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Congratulations! Good for you guys.

Wife and I looked at a house in Ft. Collins in 2012 for $675k. Didn't buy it because we were concerned about having "that big of a mortgage". Same house went on the market and sold for $950k three years later.

Lesson learned. Sit on the sidelines and whine or get in the game. Risk = Reward.

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I bet it's well over 2 million by now

For those selling and "waiting for market to cool" be sure and do the math. How much will it cost you to sell? It's usually a lot more than people realize, like 10% plus having to move and then rent + everything that goes along with renting.
Then if you're correct and the markets cool you're going to have fees plus expenses when you buy and then moving again and all that goes along with that.

IMO markets would have to correct 20% at the minimum to break even. 30% to be worth it. I just can't see that happening unless you time it exactly perfect by selling at the peak and then lowballing when you buy and buying at the exact bottom.

Last edited by RiverRat1; 07-05-2021 at 09:13 AM.
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Old 07-05-2021, 09:20 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by HogHunter34 View Post
Our first home we bought was a small 3/2 with detached 2 car garage. Right at 1325 sq ft
We bought it in 2001 for 78k & sold it in 2012 for 97k
It just hit the market for 195k
In 1995 I bought a 1565sft 3/2/2 brick home with 20x24 detached game room on 2 acres for $85K. I sold it in 2015 for $169K and thought I'd hit a homerun. I believe that same house would sell for $275K-$300K right now.

My nephew just bought a 60-year-old 2/2/2, 1200sft house on a 1/4 acre lot for $189K
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Old 07-05-2021, 09:28 AM   #45
Drycreek3189
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Location: Troup
Hunt In: Cherokee, Rusk Counties
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hully1029 View Post
It makes me wonder what I could get for mine.. but makes me worry how difficult it would be to find another.

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And that my friend, is gonna be the fly in the ointment ! Itís exactly the same as the truck market, I could get a great price on mine, but I would have to rob a **** bank to get another one !
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Old 07-05-2021, 09:38 AM   #46
Goldeneagle
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My neighbors just sold their house. The first offer they got was $50k over asking price.
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Old 07-05-2021, 09:42 AM   #47
thegrouse
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Hunt In: Wilson and San Saba County
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Anybody know where the surplus of cheap houses are? They do not appear to be in the liberal cities on the West Coast. Our local paper reported a shortage of houses are causing the increase of prices. Certainly some CA city has to have a ton of vacant houses? Everywhere I have looked in OR, NV, CA, UT and AZ have hot markets also.
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Old 07-05-2021, 09:45 AM   #48
M16
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If your real estate is not on the market and somebody shows an interest. Never ever tell them a price. Tell them to make you an offer you can’t refuse and go from there. He who speaks first always leaves money on the table.
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Old 07-05-2021, 12:13 PM   #49
Aggie PhD
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We closed on a place in January 2020 with the intent to rehab and finish a barndominium that was never finished. Well having a baby in March of 2020 and grand designs by my wife put those plans on pause. Around Mother's Day my wife came up with a more realistic scope of renovation work. So since then I have been spending every waking hour when I am not at my job working there. We ordered cabinets, and unfortunately they will not be here until October.......

But I have plenty to work on til then. And if I finish I can start working on my current house. I figure that this winter and next spring will not be as crazy as this spring/summer. But I hope it holds out long enough for us to sell at these prices

I have seen price per sq ft listings of 175 on the low end to 189 within 1/2 mile of our current house. And am not sure if people paid above the ask.

If it all works out close to plan, it would be a huge blessing on our family
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Old 07-05-2021, 12:43 PM   #50
friscopaint
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thegrouse View Post
Anybody know where the surplus of cheap houses are? They do not appear to be in the liberal cities on the West Coast. Our local paper reported a shortage of houses are causing the increase of prices. Certainly some CA city has to have a ton of vacant houses? Everywhere I have looked in OR, NV, CA, UT and AZ have hot markets also.
My brother ran into same in Georgia, had a tough time finding a place.
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