Lumber prices are falling fast

[Dusty Britches]

Two consecutive days of limit down on cash price.

The Wall Street Journal June 15, 2021

Lumber prices are falling back to earth.

Futures for July delivery ended Monday at $996.20 per thousand board feet, down 42% from the record of $1,711.20 reached in early May. Futures have declined 14 of the past 15 trading days, the last two by the most allowed by exchange rules.

Cash lumber prices are also crashing. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks on-the-spot sales, dropped $122 to $1,324, its biggest ever weekly decline. The pullback came just six weeks after the index rose $124 during the first week of May, its most on record. Random Lengths described a chaotic rout in which sawmill managers struggled to provide customers with price quotes.

[TreyRo]

I've got my fingers and toes crossed. We paused building our house for the moment and are stuck in Limbo building/buying. Neither of which is fun or cheap.

[Smart]

Man that is great news .......maybe after painting and flooring, I can start back up with some of my wood based projects.


Doesn't look like Home Depot got the message quite yet. Hopefully We'll see some movement soon.

[ken800]

I paused a fence... deck... and so on. I've not bought a single piece of lumber in a year. Worked on everything else. I've been watching this as well and hoping enough people stay on the sidelines and refuse to pay the crazy prices until they come back to Earth. $51 now at Lowes for a 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB. That's a $7.X piece of lumber pre covid.

[Snowflake Killa]

Man that is great news .......maybe after painting and flooring, I can start back up with some of my wood based projects.


Doesn't look like Home Depot got the message quite yet. Hopefully We'll see some movement soon.

This is about right. I just built to bases for my blinds 700.00

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[TreyRo]

I paused a fence... deck... and so on. I've not bought a single piece of lumber in a year. Worked on everything else. I've been watching this as well and hoping enough people stay on the sidelines and refuse to pay the crazy prices until they come back to Earth. $51 now at Lowes for a 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB. That's a $7.X piece of lumber pre covid.

We build lots of large crates for our projects out of state but not enough that I can really buy in bulk. Plywood has been brutal.

[Playa]

I’m hopeful. Would like to build a gabled pergola, but I ain’t doing it at current lumber prices.

[duckhunter1]

C'mon normalcy

[Gclyde28]

Futures pricing will take a little while to reach the market. I would expect to start seeing declines at the big box stores in another month or so.

[LivinADream]

Almost too good to be true. I am being "forced" into an add on. 3 kids on the ground and twins on the way. I can almost cut my cost in half if lumber gets back to normal before I order.

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[ken800]

Futures pricing will take a little while to reach the market. I would expect to start seeing declines at the big box stores in another month or so.

It's the old Gas story... Prices of gas at the pump jump instantly on any geopolitical issues then they slowly creep back down. When asking why, it's because they have to sell off the expensive stuff that is already in the channel. My question is always, "Why, then, did prices jump instantly? There was cheap gas in the channel..."

[ultrastealth]

Lumber prices killed new home construction, so prices are falling due to decreased demand. The market wins again!

[Gclyde28]

It's the old Gas story... Prices of gas at the pump jump instantly on any geopolitical issues then they slowly creep back down. When asking why, it's because they have to sell off the expensive stuff that is already in the channel. My question is always, "Why, then, did prices jump instantly? There was cheap gas in the channel..."

I hear what your saying, but the lumber prices at the store didn't immediately skyrocket. They were delayed behind the futures...

[Pony1971]

The weather really hurt a lot for new homes. There is some job sites delayed or opening up, but treaters and box stores have really pulled out of the market. This is a digestion phase of people working thru inventory and loads still coming in to yards. We will hit levels where people will start covering existing jobs on the books and things will level out. In my mind that will be weeks, not months. Then we will stair-step down if normal type business continues.

And futures does little to affect the daily price of material. With that futures sector mainly focusing on the SPF market, which is becoming a smaller factor to SYP lumber.

We aren't going back to the old normal, but can't stay at this current situation either on lumber. If I were building a home, deck, or fence - I would sure pat my wood and be patient. BUt do not expect things to go back to pre-covid pricing. Now panel goods is anybody's guess, since that market has really consolidated over the last few years.

Another major impact could develop as banks lift the ban/delay on foreclosures. It could push more inventory into the market. The reality is the cost of living is up and many families have been priced out of the market due to increases.

[bowhuntertex]

Lumber prices killed new home construction, so prices are falling due to decreased demand. The market wins again!

Not around Austin it hasn't. They can't build houses fast enough around here.