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Old 09-01-2018, 08:58 AM   #1
Johnny
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Default Tropical Weather Discussion 2018

There might be a thread on this but I couldn't find it.

All eyes on the gulf for potential tropical development as we head into next week. This is the area to watch.



The latest Euro run has this hitting around New Orleans then skirting the coast westward towards Texas dumping 20-30 (Houston area) inches along the way before coming inland along the middle Texas coast. Not saying this will happen but most models are now showing development in some fashion.

Maybe a few others will posts up some maps later...just figured I'd get this one going.

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Old 09-01-2018, 09:03 AM   #2
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Thanks for the heads up Johnny.
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:04 AM   #3
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In.
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:18 AM   #4
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In
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:25 AM   #5
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:32 AM   #6
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In


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Old 09-01-2018, 09:33 AM   #7
stickerpatch59
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hope some comes our way.
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:34 AM   #8
brianlg31
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I was hoping you would start this
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:35 AM   #9
ccbluewater
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
There might be a thread on this but I couldn't find it.

All eyes on the gulf for potential tropical development as we head into next week. This is the area to watch.



The latest Euro run has this hitting around New Orleans then skirting the coast westward towards Texas dumping 20-30 (Houston area) inches along the way before coming inland along the middle Texas coast. Not saying this will happen but most models are now showing development in some fashion.

Maybe a few others will posts up some maps later...just figured I'd get this one going.

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Well that escalated rather quickly. Interested to see if the next Euro run shows a similar solution, or backs off. As well, interested to see if any of the other globals come around to what the Euro is showing. Big change from yesterday though with now almost all of the models showing development of some sort. The state could use the rain, just don't want to see a deluge like the Euro was showing last night.
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:38 AM   #10
laredoarcher
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In. Webb is dry !!!!!
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:45 AM   #11
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Following
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:52 AM   #12
Cur_Dog
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Following
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:53 AM   #13
Etxbuckman
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So are we talking Harvey level rainfall here?
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:08 AM   #14
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Following.

Just moved to Houston and apparently into a area that floods badly.... sucks arse but only had a week to look before starting a new job
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:11 AM   #15
thegrouse
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In.


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Old 09-01-2018, 10:14 AM   #16
Capt.Brown
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Boy I sure hope it somehow makes it to central Texas!
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:18 AM   #17
ttaxidermy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stickerpatch59 View Post
hope some comes our way.
You can have it...
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:18 AM   #18
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Watching
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:19 AM   #19
ttaxidermy
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Boy I sure hope it somehow makes it to central Texas!
AND you can also have it..
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:27 AM   #20
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Quote:
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You can have it...
Right.

I'll take some rain but flooding but so much

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Old 09-01-2018, 10:28 AM   #21
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Crap
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:34 AM   #22
ttaxidermy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quackerbox View Post
Right.

I'll take some rain but flooding but so much

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Exactly..
My place a year ago today exactly!! Water for miles and miles and miles!!!!



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Old 09-01-2018, 10:45 AM   #23
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I wish it could skip Houston and come directly to the northwest hill country.
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:46 AM   #24
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AND you can also have it..
That's a lot more PC than what I was gonna say!
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:48 AM   #25
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I hope that you east coast folks dont get hit too hard again, but man Im desperate for rain here.
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:51 AM   #26
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Send it all our way!
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Old 09-01-2018, 11:01 AM   #27
savin yours
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ttaxidermy View Post
Exactly..
My place a year ago today exactly!! Water for miles and miles and miles!!!!



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I know exactly where this is! I was in the same “boat” as you. I hope it goes somewhere else!


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Old 09-01-2018, 11:05 AM   #28
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Default Potential Tropical Development

Quote:
Originally Posted by savin yours View Post
I know exactly where this is! I was in the same “boat” as you. I hope it goes somewhere else!





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Yep and that's before it really got bad.. Both our pics are just showing the clear rain water being pushed ahead of the river swell. When that red water hit it got ugly quick.. A lot of current and strong flow..

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Old 09-01-2018, 11:29 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quackerbox View Post
Right.

I'll take some rain but flooding but so much

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Yep, this was my place a year ago last tuesday! A lot of folks will be nervous and watching this one!
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Old 09-01-2018, 11:32 AM   #30
ttaxidermy
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Yep, this was my place a year ago last tuesday! A lot of folks will be nervous and watching this one!
OUCH!!! Dang..
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Old 09-01-2018, 12:53 PM   #31
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Hate to hear I saw that euro right this morning. After last year, I won’t say there’s no way a crazy model run can be right.


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Old 09-01-2018, 12:57 PM   #32
drop dead fred
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Won’t sniff the gulf
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Old 09-01-2018, 12:59 PM   #33
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Be careful what you ask for
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Old 09-01-2018, 01:07 PM   #34
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About right, we’re going to the coast for a few days. I’ll take the rain, but not the rest.
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Old 09-01-2018, 02:25 PM   #35
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Following.


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Old 09-01-2018, 03:33 PM   #36
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This definitely has my attention. Euro continues to show a lot of rain for TX. Storm comes ashore as a TS this run(weaker) in SE LA on Wednesday, but gets shunted W & SW by the strengthening ridge to the N & E in the days following.. Near Lake Charles Thursday,Over Houston area Friday morning, further S&W towards San Antonio by Saturday, then just kinda meanders around South & Central Texas until the run ends on Tuesday. Some big time rain for San Antonio & Austin areas if that were to verify, and pretty healthy totals for the Houston area. Doesn't appear to be a wind threat at this time, but certainly a widespread rain threat at this time. If this slows down while in the Gulf, all bets are off as it will have more time to get going. Still talking a good ways out if this verifies, and there is lots of time for things to evolve so keep an eye on the weather services in the coming days.

Last edited by ccbluewater; 09-01-2018 at 03:36 PM.
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Old 09-01-2018, 03:34 PM   #37
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Hope this storm doesn’t grow into one of the Cape Verde systems.
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Old 09-01-2018, 04:22 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drop dead fred View Post
Won’t sniff the gulf


There's always that one...


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Old 09-01-2018, 05:09 PM   #39
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There’s definitely a cat 5 Hurricane rolling into Dallas at 6:30 pm tomorrow night!
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Old 09-01-2018, 05:33 PM   #40
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There’s definitely a cat 5 Hurricane rolling into Dallas at 6:30 pm tomorrow night!







Lol


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Old 09-01-2018, 05:48 PM   #41
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Yeah, we can definitely do without 30 inches of rain in Houston. Barely been a year...

I know most of the state could use some rain though.
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Old 09-01-2018, 09:59 PM   #42
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I am praying it doesn't drop that much rain here in Houston.
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:31 AM   #43
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Tag
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:37 AM   #44
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watched an update from one of our local Beaumont channels tonight. It said that the storm is almost for sure going to enter the gulf in about a day without significantly hitting Florida or Cuba to weaken it. The two most likely scenarios mentioned are for it to make landfall as a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane near the Mississippi/Bama/Fla panhandle area, and then shoot straight west and dump 8-20 inches of rain on us around Thursday, or... get pushed south further into the gulf, then hook up northwest and hit somewhere on the upper Texas coast or Louisiana as possibly a stronger storm. Of course, there are a couple of days for things to change, and hopefully something does, because neither of those options is particularly appealing for southeast Texas.
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:40 AM   #45
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We for sure don't even want to hear about storms in SETX.
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:43 AM   #46
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Figures. Just in time for my gator hunt in La. next week.
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:43 AM   #47
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We for sure don't even want to hear about storms in SETX.
No we do not.
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:48 AM   #48
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Figures. Just in time for my gator hunt in La. next week.
Might be able to hunt from your hotel lobby
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Old 09-02-2018, 12:52 AM   #49
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I hope it stays away
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Old 09-02-2018, 08:06 AM   #50
captainsling
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Euro and GFS seem to be in agreement this morning on it heading toward NOLA. After that it is a crap shoot on it going North or West. We don't need that much rain again is SE Tx. People are still putting their lives back together.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/****...018090200&fh=0

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