Anyone moving stocks to more conservative safe haven areas?

[Redfeathers]

Bump

[Planner]

Originally Posted by boy wonder

If the rate increases are common knowledge, wouldn’t that already be “baked in” to stock prices? I’m certainly a novice on the market and really have no idea.

Yes, this is how efficient markets respond to information. With the speed and efficiency of the transmission of information, prices are reflected with all known information relatively quickly. By the time your barber is giving you ‘a heads up’, it’s already reflected in the market price.


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[IkemanTX]

The DOW is back down below 32,000 today.

I’ll echo what I said earlier, I will put everything back into a market index fund if this will drop to 26,000 or 27,000. (aside from one small account where I play with individual stocks).

I doubt they will let it drop that far with all the manipulation they have been doing the past few years, though. If it doesn’t get a decent ways into the 20k’s, I will have to pay a lot more attention to when I think things are turning around.


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[tdwinklr]

yep. Portfolio was looking worse the other day and now my financial tool has gone away. Found another one and moved some things around according to their recommendations. Guess we'll see if it works now.

[60 Deluxe]

There are lots of ways to skin a cat. I got tired of the market swings due to the actions of irrational people. Cashed out six or seven years ago and bought rent houses. I'm retired so I need cash flow. That part is working great. On paper, we've seen some great gains recently. My kids should be happy when I croak.

[IkemanTX]

Originally Posted by 60 Deluxe

There are lots of ways to skin a cat. I got tired of the market swings due to the actions of irrational people. Cashed out six or seven years ago and bought rent houses. I'm retired so I need cash flow. That part is working great. On paper, we've seen some great gains recently. My kids should be happy when I croak.

I would LOVE to be able to transition our retirements into real estate at some point. In fact, I am specifically planning to change employers (or perhaps go self employed) at some point so I can roll my current accounts into a 401K that allows fully self directed investing just for that reason. My current employer is pretty restrictive as to what we can invest in.
It would be perfect if I could get it moved shortly before the next big correction (which I assume will happen in the next 10-15 years), so I could get out of the market at reasonably good prices, and then get into real estate on its dip shortly after.

Either way, 15 years from now I want to be in a heavier cash flow position than a market one.


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[Etxbuckman]

Today is one of those days you just don't look at the market. Tomorrow it's liable to be up 1,000 points when all the people who sold buy back in at lower prices.

[Walker]

Originally Posted by Etxbuckman

Today is one of those days you just don't look at the market. Tomorrow it's liable to be up 1,000 points when all the people who sold buy back in at lower prices.

Don't hold your breath. Nothing has changed.

[RiverRat1]

Today was not the bottom. No capitulation.

They may rally hard again (I hope they do). Then I'll start buying PUTS back.

[TeamAmerica]

Fed current rate target is 1.5% and will likely rise to 4% by next year. Mortgage rates (currently at 5.75%) will be 7% to 8% and it is obvious the inflation is not "transitory" in the slightest. I agree there is a ways to go before we hit bottom. Earnings forecasts from public companies are dropping and no longer isolated to big Tech stocks. Buckle up boys and girls!

[Walker]

Originally Posted by TeamAmerica

Fed current rate target is 1.5% and will likely rise to 4% by next year. Mortgage rates (currently at 5.75%) will be 7% to 8% and it is obvious the inflation is not "transitory" in the slightest. I agree there is a ways to go before we hit bottom. Earnings forecasts from public companies are dropping and no longer isolated to big Tech stocks. Buckle up boys and girls!

And all that spells RECESSION

[IkemanTX]

Originally Posted by Etxbuckman

Today is one of those days you just don't look at the market. Tomorrow it's liable to be up 1,000 points when all the people who sold buy back in at lower prices.

We are still only down 17% since the 52 week high, so I would be prepared to see it keep going down…

I’m hoping to buy back in when the Dow gets down to around 26,000. We will see if I am patient enough.


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[7sdad]

We received a little money a few months ago and are just setting on it waiting. It's not making anything but it's not loosing anything either.

[EastTexasTiger]

[Pedernal]

Horrible few days for the markets… anyone think we might be near bottom territory?? Are we in store for an additional 10 % drop overall??

[RiverRat1]

No bottom until FED pivots. I'm 80% sure they won't this time. At least not until Sept/Oct.
But by then it will be too late.

It's all a gamble at this point.

But one things for sure...A lot of money is gone out of markets and won't come back until inflation is under control. That can't happen if FED pivots.

May be time to "pay the piper". Been saying since 2008 it will happen once FED is out of magic tricks. This may be it...

[TheHammer]

Originally Posted by RiverRat1

No bottom until FED pivots. I'm 80% sure they won't this time. At least not until Sept/Oct.
But by then it will be too late.

It's all a gamble at this point.

But one things for sure...A lot of money is gone out of markets and won't come back until inflation is under control. That can't happen if FED pivots.

May be time to "pay the piper". Been saying since 2008 it will happen once FED is out of magic tricks. This may be it...

I think it will be years before these losses are gained back. Going to be a stagnant few years.

[Pedernal]

Stocks tumbling out of the blocks again today.

[Capt.Brown]

Originally Posted by Pedernal

Horrible few days for the markets… anyone think we might be near bottom territory?? Are we in store for an additional 10 % drop overall??

I think another 15-20%.

[S-3 Ranch]

Originally Posted by Pedernal

Stocks tumbling out of the blocks again today.

I am trying not to look till after 4:30

[Pedernal]

Originally Posted by Capt.Brown

I think another 15-20%.

So S&P 500 under 3000? Wow, that is going to hurt a lot of folks.

[RiverRat1]

Originally Posted by Pedernal

So S&P 500 under 3000? Wow, that is going to hurt a lot of folks.

My wild guess is that's how far they try and take it..Capitulation day that ends this downtrend.

But that won't happen for 1-5 months from now. They need to weaken all longs. Slowly make everyone that swore they would hold through this entire mess doubt themselves until they cave...= capitulation.

Plus far too many "buy the dip" people still around.


Another way to look at it is this... THE day/week you look at markets and say.. No way in hades I'm buying into this market! That's when you're close to bottom. If you can actually just hit the buy button we are not near bottom.

[IkemanTX]

Originally Posted by RiverRat1

My wild guess is that's how far they try and take it..Capitulation day that ends this downtrend.

But that won't happen for 1-5 months from now. They need to weaken all longs. Slowly make everyone that swore they would hold through this entire mess doubt themselves until they cave...= capitulation.

Plus far too many "buy the dip" people still around.


Another way to look at it is this... THE day/week you look at markets and say.. No way in hades I'm buying into this market! That's when you're close to bottom. If you can actually just hit the buy button we are not near bottom.

I’m looking for as low a number on that market as I can, since I’m already out of it.
I wouldn’t mind the DOW in the mid 20’s
For a little bit there (on the rise) I didn’t think it was going to get down to may ultimate target of 25,000-26,000, but I think it is inevitable at this point.
I’m holding out for 26 now or some long sustained gains. I may miss the bottom because of it, but that is life.

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[SabineHunter]

Well, it got into the 20s for a little bit, still more to go down. Like I said, 25k by Nov. Hopefully, 19k, but I'll take 25k as that has been my prediction since Jan. When we stomp the libtards in Nov, the stock market will increase. I'm buying back in come mid October. I've been playing the puts game with Gme and adding to my account.

[ww1984]

I went to cash equivalents in my 401K about 3 months ago. I put 20% back into the markets for every 10% drop in the indices from all time highs.

[WRasco]

Originally Posted by Pedernal

Stocks tumbling out of the blocks again today.

Could not take it any longer, I pulled mine out of the market and put it in bonds.
Not much return but it is no longer dropping.

[bbqfan5909]

You do not lose money until you sell. I do not know your situation, but you played the game the market wants.

Originally Posted by WRasco

Could not take it any longer, I pulled mine out of the market and put it in bonds.
Not much return but it is no longer dropping.

[nocam7]

Sp500 if valued by the books is 2800. I'm holding until it hits 3500.

Many good stocks have been sold off. Sp500 has too many unprofitable companies.

Oil will continue it's run and associated companies will earn well. Look at the supply side.
The USA will be bailing out EU with LNG shipments. Look at those tanker companies. They make money and offer a dividend.

Pipeline and oil service companies do look great for the continued well expansion.

The bigger concern we should watch is what the fed is doing and what our offshore treasuries are doing. I'm not sure if everyone knows yet but we are going to be stagflationary. Think about the 70s what did well then. History is repeating.



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[SabineHunter]

Originally Posted by bbqfan5909

You do not lose money until you sell. I do not know your situation, but you played the game the market wants.

Now, you sound like one of those investment advisors. If the market goes down, you will lose money, sold or not. You don't 'realize' that loss but you still lose.

Example: we both have 100k in an account. Market drops 25 percent. I sell for 75k, you stay in. Three months later, the market is at 50 percent. My account is worth 75k and yours is at 50k. I jump back in and I get 50 percent more stock for the come back than you have. Who lost?

[bbqfan5909]

Time the market, I wish you the best. History shows time and time again, market will rebound.

And your example is if you again sell, just like I stated.

Cost average buy, market prays on people just like you.

Originally Posted by SabineHunter

Now, you sound like one of those investment advisors. If the market goes down, you will lose money, sold or not. You don't 'realize' that loss but you still lose.

Example: we both have 100k in an account. Market drops 25 percent. I sell for 75k, you stay in. Three months later, the market is at 50 percent. My account is worth 75k and yours is at 50k. I jump back in and I get 50 percent more stock for the come back than you have. Who lost?

[Outback]

I am using free cash to buy dividend stocks, particularly SBLK and GOGL. These are ocean freight companies that pay great dividends. When the market goes up, they have really gone up. When they peaked I sold them. When the market drops, they drop and I buy back in. I've done this several times. I'm buying in on dips now. When the market improves, they will increase 30% asap. Plus, I will get a dividend in the next 60 days of 15-20%.

[SabineHunter]

Originally Posted by bbqfan5909

Time the market, I wish you the best. History shows time and time again, market will rebound.

And your example is if you again sell, just like I stated.

Cost average buy, market prays on people just like you.

I don't know what you mean by sell again. But, I do know that this is definitely not the time to be in the market. How much are you down since Jan? Don't tell me but think about it. Me, I'm up because I sold 100 percent in Jan and using some of that to play the GME put game, which does require good solid timing.
And, trust me, the market hasn't preyed on me in 30 years.

[SabineHunter]

Originally Posted by Outback

I am using free cash to buy dividend stocks, particularly SBLK and GOGL. These are ocean freight companies that pay great dividends. When the market goes up, they have really gone up. When they peaked I sold them. When the market drops, they drop and I buy back in. I've done this several times. I'm buying in on dips now. When the market improves, they will increase 30% asap. Plus, I will get a dividend in the next 60 days of 15-20%.

Good info, thank you.

[bbqfan5909]

Up a fair amount, just keep plugging away. Won’t time the market nor know when a true bottom happens.

Originally Posted by SabineHunter

I don't know what you mean by sell again. But, I do know that this is definitely not the time to be in the market. How much are you down since Jan? Don't tell me but think about it. Me, I'm up because I sold 100 percent in Jan and using some of that to play the GME put game, which does require good solid timing.
And, trust me, the market hasn't preyed on me in 30 years.

[rtp]

Originally Posted by Outback

I am using free cash to buy dividend stocks, particularly SBLK and GOGL. These are ocean freight companies that pay great dividends. When the market goes up, they have really gone up. When they peaked I sold them. When the market drops, they drop and I buy back in. I've done this several times. I'm buying in on dips now. When the market improves, they will increase 30% asap. Plus, I will get a dividend in the next 60 days of 15-20%.

Looks like the dividend payments are all over the place including near zero at times. What gives you the confidence these stocks will continue to pay high dividends in the future? I get the next dividend has already been announced and is priced into the stock price currently.

[Pedernal]

Wow looks like Bitcoin took another tumble over night. Anyone got some educated thoughts on where this whole crypto currency thing is head…

[Gumbo Man]

Originally Posted by Pedernal

Wow looks like Bitcoin took another tumble over night. Anyone got some educated thoughts on where this whole crypto currency thing is head…

My son in law is enjoying the dip and is buying like crazy. I hope that he knows what he is doing.

[TENRMORE]

Stocks are on sale, buy more, the market will recovery. Its still not as bad a 2008, All that money recovered over time. Its seems like human nature to be negative about everything instead of being positive.

[Pedernal]

Originally Posted by Gumbo Man

My son in law is enjoying the dip and is buying like crazy. I hope that he knows what he is doing.

Best of luck to him and your daughter. I considered buying a while back but just too much of a chicken to buy in now.

Originally Posted by TENRMORE

Stocks are on sale, buy more, the market will recovery. Its still not as bad a 2008, All that money recovered over time. Its seems like human nature to be negative about everything instead of being positive.

I agree that there is a high probability the markets will recover. I just wonder how much of the losses are for folks that bought in too late and jumped back out.

Additionally, if the markets don’t recover we are all screwed. Lots of folks think that is impossible. I don’t think is likely but at some point with so much national debt the poop is going to hit the fan blades.

[Gumbo Man]

Originally Posted by Gumbo Man

My son in law is enjoying the dip and is buying like crazy. I hope that he knows what he is doing.

I was shocked that he didn’t sell last year when it hit 64,000

[SabineHunter]

Originally Posted by TENRMORE

Stocks are on sale, buy more, the market will recovery. Its still not as bad a 2008, All that money recovered over time. Its seems like human nature to be negative about everything instead of being positive.

Yeah, right. With this idiot in chief and this congress, why would you buy in? Oct/Nov, yes, but not now. Like Aerosmith put it, Going Down.

[Greenheadless]

I’m gonna fire my financial advisor and start following this thread!

Nostradamus had nothing on these future see’ers

[RiverRat1]

Originally Posted by bbqfan5909

Up a fair amount, just keep plugging away. Won’t time the market nor know when a true bottom happens.

If you're up a fair amount since Jan. simply from holding then you are a market god.

Almost nothing is higher now than in Jan..

[RiverRat1]

Originally Posted by Greenheadless

I’m gonna fire my financial advisor and start following this thread!

Nostradamus had nothing on these future see’ers

Any FA that kept you fully invested after December when FED flat said they would be raising rates a lot should be fired. And also if they kept you in bond funds "for the long haul".

Go read my posts back in Dec and Jan. Did I just get really lucky?

[SabineHunter]

Originally Posted by Greenheadless

I’m gonna fire my financial advisor and start following this thread!

Nostradamus had nothing on these future see’ers

You should fire your FA.I'm sure you can do better handling your own money and not pay fees. I have a good friend making a lot of money advising people and they all are losing money because her firm has a policy of not selling to go to cash. Just follow the money.

[joey1656]

I have 15 more until retirement and 11 more for my boys 529. I am still very aggressive and have increased my contributions. it's a good time to buy... i hope lol

[RiverRat1]

Originally Posted by bbqfan5909

You do not lose money until you sell. I do not know your situation, but you played the game the market wants.

So if you start with 100k and look at your account 2 years later and it's 150k what do you tell the wife, that you're still break even because you have not sold or that you're up 50k.

Be honest!

[SabineHunter]

There is one self proclaimed expert that doesn't comment on this thread anymore who thinks that way. Lol.

[tigerscowboy]

Turned 1/3 of held stocks to cash back in Feb. Looking to put it back in this month. Maybe some in Aug and rest in Sept.

[rut-ro]

Originally Posted by Walker

I only have mutual funds with histories. I haven't moved anything. Down 7%

Same here down 15 but staying where I am.