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Old 04-08-2021, 09:24 AM   #51
CaptainDave
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Although inflation is a factor, I don't believe it's a significant factor at this point. I believe it mostly has to do with a home building market that already had high demand from all the people moving to this State in addition to historically low interest rates. Then combine that with the significant amount of damage caused by the February freeze. I know a couple insurance adjusters and the amount of damage caused by the freeze is eye opening to say the least.

I do agree the bubble will pop or at least start to deflate at some point. My guess is that repairs from the freeze damage will eventually get caught up and interest rates will eventually start to increase. Actually, rates have trickled up slightly over the last few weeks.
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Old 04-08-2021, 10:14 AM   #52
Chad C
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Originally Posted by Rubberdown View Post
I just paid 6.50 for a stud. Jeezum Pete.
10' stick No.1? You got a deal if so.
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Old 04-08-2021, 10:15 AM   #53
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I thought the housing bubble would pop in 2018, yet here we are. This isn't going to change any time soon.
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Old 04-08-2021, 10:19 AM   #54
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We looked at buying a house here in Dfw and offered 7k over asking plus free rent back and other things. Thought it would be a decent offer. We where not in the top 25 I guess offered.
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Old 04-08-2021, 10:26 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by scott.str View Post
We looked at buying a house here in Dfw and offered 7k over asking plus free rent back and other things. Thought it would be a decent offer. We where not in the top 25 I guess offered.
Have some friends looking in our area, Waco, Hewitt etc, and offered 25k over asking on the last one they put in and still lost it. Crazy market around here.
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Old 04-08-2021, 11:41 AM   #56
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The guys I know in Montana who have lumber yards selling primarily to contractors say its not going down if demand stays where it is now. An economic crash/ bubble bursting changes everything.

Our son is a builder and agreed. Low interest rates and people not spending discretionary $ during covid are fueling the demand.

Land and house prices in Montana are going up and supply is low.


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Old 04-08-2021, 11:46 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by apkleinschmidt View Post
Does anyone have an educated guess as to when these super inflated material costs will normalize? End of 2021? 2022? I don't ever expect them to get back to pre COVID numbers but this is ridiculous.

We got the bid for our planned build and material costs are 70-120k more than anticipated on a 2200 sqft house. We will probably hit the pause button on construction and hang tight for a year or two to let costs go down if we have to. Any opinions on possibly giving up these low interest rates on the hope that material goes down in the next couple years? If it was a 20-30k difference I would just build but 100k difference is pretty substantial.

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Its a 50/50 kind of deal you just don't know what's going to happen in a year from now it might just get worst.
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Old 04-08-2021, 11:57 AM   #58
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The lumber futures today are record high. Almost 1,100 per thousand board feet.
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:14 PM   #59
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Theee will be a lumber price drop in the next 2-3 weeks but it wont be back to normal.

At the mills at least, no clue what retail will do.
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:14 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scott.str View Post
We looked at buying a house here in Dfw and offered 7k over asking plus free rent back and other things. Thought it would be a decent offer. We where not in the top 25 I guess offered.
My wifes sister and family are trying to move from Manhattan, KS to HEB or Keller area. They placed multiple offers on homes, most in the $360-370k range and offered between 390-400 and lost on 5 or 6 and finally got one in Keller over the weekend. I cant wrap my head around it. And neither of them have landed a job yet.
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:28 PM   #61
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Don't see it anytime soon if ever. I would go ahead and get your build under contract before things go up anymore. I have been a real estate appraiser for over 35 years and I have never seen anything like what is going on. Just got an appraisal assignment in with list price of 349,900 and a contract for 450,000. 5 days on market. Here is a list of a few sales in a very small area in Austin. Multiply these 10 fold and that is the market in the Austin area. Look at the list price vs sale price. Just stupid crazy right now.
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:40 PM   #62
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Remember all those Trump tariffs? That is a huge part of this.
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:01 PM   #63
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Im just curious what its gonna take for people to start living within their means.
We just moved into a 800 sq ft living area in a pole barn we built with cash from selling our house on some land we bought a couple of years ago. Yes it is small and nothing fancy and we dont drive fancy vehicles but they are paid for and I am blessed to make a good living. People would be so further along to learn to live within their means (its easy to do) and find their joy in Jesus instead of a big house and a new F250.

Stepping off my soap box
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:08 PM   #64
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I recently tore out my old deck and was planning on replacing it this spring. Wood prices have put a halt to those plans right now. Just crazy.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do now. I have a mud pit that my dogs and kids love, but my wife is not a fan....
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:13 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by bboswell View Post
Theee will be a lumber price drop in the next 2-3 weeks but it wont be back to normal.

At the mills at least, no clue what retail will do.
Thought process?
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:20 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by BrianL View Post
Remember all those Trump tariffs? That is a huge part of this.
Not true tariffs were removed when the USMC trade deal was made. Lumber shortage from Canada is mostly due to Covid as many lumbering operations were suspended by the Canadian government. Pipeline dried up so now they have to basically get the trees down and to the mills. Takes time.
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:26 PM   #67
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Remember all those Trump tariffs? That is a huge part of this.
Yea.... That's categorically false. Reading dates on articles is important.

Last edited by SB09; 04-08-2021 at 01:29 PM.
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:35 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by DedDuk View Post
Thought process?


Came from a senior employee at UFP. Im not gonna claim to understand the why.
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:41 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by bboswell View Post
Came from a senior employee at UFP. Im not gonna claim to understand the why.
Not arguing, I hope you're right. Im buying lumber for a house build in the next few weeks. If prices have not dropped by then, Ill tell them Mr. Boswell said they were suppose to.
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:43 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by DedDuk View Post
Not arguing, I hope you're right. Im buying lumber for a house build in the next few weeks. If prices have not dropped by then, Ill tell them Mr. Boswell said they were suppose to.


Lol. Good luck with that
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:49 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by texan4ut View Post
Don't see it anytime soon if ever. I would go ahead and get your build under contract before things go up anymore. I have been a real estate appraiser for over 35 years and I have never seen anything like what is going on. Just got an appraisal assignment in with list price of 349,900 and a contract for 450,000. 5 days on market. Here is a list of a few sales in a very small area in Austin. Multiply these 10 fold and that is the market in the Austin area. Look at the list price vs sale price. Just stupid crazy right now.
So are the appraisals on these sales matching the offers are are people pulling the extra money out of their accounts? I can't believe many folks have an extra 100k sitting around to make up the difference.
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:10 PM   #72
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If houses are selling for much more than asking so often, why aren't sellers starting out higher? I have no experience in real estate, so I always thought that was odd.
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:13 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Eastwood View Post
If houses are selling for much more than asking so often, why aren't sellers starting out higher? I have no experience in real estate, so I always thought that was odd.
This is new territory - I have mentioned before, but the neighbors listed for $60k over what they listed at last Summer. They still got multiple offers and bids.

Market is being reset.
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:22 PM   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SB09 View Post
Yea.... That's categorically false. Reading dates on articles is important.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN23H2YD

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/b...da-lumber.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-t...-s-11598294456

https://www.constructiondive.com/new...prices/595412/

Last edited by BrianL; 04-08-2021 at 02:32 PM.
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:30 PM   #75
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They could boost production in Canada. Just sayin'
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:37 PM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chad C View Post
They could boost production in Canada. Just sayin'
Canada has ammo and cheap lumber. This was self infected. They are probably laughing and and having a bit of "I told you so"

Last edited by BrianL; 04-08-2021 at 02:39 PM.
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:51 PM   #77
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Values on built homes are up as well. It's really tempting to sell my house and land for double what we have in it (we saved a ton building ourselves, and the value has shot up), but then we'd have to pay the insane prices for materials to build again.
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:08 PM   #78
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We've been planning for years to buy some land and build at this point in our life, after our kids graduated college and got married. Perfect timing for interest rates, but terrible for materials cost and demand. We're getting close on some land, but I'm still trying to decide whether we'll start building ASAP or wait a few months. Trump's tariffs definitely played a major role in kicking off this perfect storm in lumber prices. Hopefully they'll cut the remaining tariffs soon, and hopefully the mills will kick it back into gear. I'm not holding my breath for either of those to happen though. Too much money being sent to the government and the mills, so there's not much incentive for either to do what they could be doing to get prices to come down.

Some interesting reading.....

https://www.trinitybuildingsystems.c...-2021-reality/

https://candysdirt.com/2021/03/10/sk...ly-and-demand/

https://timberlinemag.com/2021/03/ho...r-tariff-cuts/
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:23 PM   #79
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Is this a good time to call a logger and sell some pine trees off of my land?
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:27 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Chew View Post
Is this a good time to call a logger and sell some pine trees off of my land?
Nope
I couldnt give mine away. They are pulling like like crazy off of our lease. More this year than past 5 years. The loggers say they aren't getting anything for it.
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:29 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by DedDuk View Post
Nope
I couldnt give mine away. They are pulling like like crazy off of our lease. More this year than past 5 years. The loggers say they aren't getting anything for it.
Wow. Thanks.
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:36 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chew View Post
Is this a good time to call a logger and sell some pine trees off of my land?
Logging prices haven't changed much, so bottleneck must in refining and processing.
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:38 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by huntingfanatic View Post
My buddy is a custom builder and is about to begin building our house. Price is $90,000 more now than it was 7 months ago. He said he thought MAYBE end of 2022. He keeps apologizing and showing us the bids. Lumber package bids are no good until they are paid for. They wont even hold them a couple weeks

Metal building material costs are also climbing, but not as fast as lumber.
We closed on our home back in September and feel like we got in on low interest rate and not as much inflation as we are seeing now. Hope it all levels out so the housing market can normalize.
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:53 PM   #84
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I wish a few local appraisers would read this thread and reconsider their recent assessments...comps cant even keep up with rising costs.
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:06 PM   #85
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I wish a few local appraisers would read this thread and reconsider their recent assessments...comps cant even keep up with rising costs.
Do you feel the same about your local tax appraiser? :-)
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:08 PM   #86
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This thread is depressing. I just bought 3 acres and the plan is to build a house on said 3 acres. Luckily it'll be a year or so before I am in a position to do so, but I'm just hoping it gets close to what it was before I'm ready to build.
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Old 04-08-2021, 05:42 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by RR 314 View Post
Do you feel the same about your local tax appraiser? :-)

Ha! If my local tax appraiser appraised new homes wed always come in over value!
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Old 04-08-2021, 06:55 PM   #88
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This popped up in my YouTube feed today. Buckle up because it's gonna get worse.

https://youtu.be/iepZC3HdS8E



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Old 04-09-2021, 12:26 AM   #89
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Our addition was pretty much double what it would have been at the beginning of 2020. And we are helping our contractor as much as we can to get his newer jobs moving. He had 89 employees when he started our addition at the end of January. He now has 160 and is trying to hire more workers. The freeze exploded the remodeling industry. Its insane, absolutely insane. He might get close to breaking even on our job, because the bid quickly lost profit with the freeze. We are being patient, and allowing him to send guys up as often as possible, so that he can make money off of other jobs. Some might say we are crazy, but his work is impeccable and worth waiting on. That being said, Im ready for them to finish and get out of our hair

I dont see prices dropping for a while, its a statewide remodeling boom after the Feb freeze
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Old 04-09-2021, 04:41 AM   #90
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sounds like I might need to take a look at my homeowners insurance policy ...
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Old 04-09-2021, 07:13 AM   #91
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We are in the final stages of building and we timed it pretty well. Our lumber package did go up $20,000 but it would be a lot worse now and with the interest rates being under 3% I think it will pay off in the long run.
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Old 04-09-2021, 09:21 AM   #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shane View Post
We've been planning for years to buy some land and build at this point in our life, after our kids graduated college and got married. Perfect timing for interest rates, but terrible for materials cost and demand. We're getting close on some land, but I'm still trying to decide whether we'll start building ASAP or wait a few months. Trump's tariffs definitely played a major role in kicking off this perfect storm in lumber prices. Hopefully they'll cut the remaining tariffs soon, and hopefully the mills will kick it back into gear. I'm not holding my breath for either of those to happen though. Too much money being sent to the government and the mills, so there's not much incentive for either to do what they could be doing to get prices to come down.

Some interesting reading.....

https://www.trinitybuildingsystems.c...-2021-reality/

https://candysdirt.com/2021/03/10/sk...ly-and-demand/

https://timberlinemag.com/2021/03/ho...r-tariff-cuts/

Trumps tariffs increased lumber prices? Please explain since lumber grows in the US and Canada and prices soared with the Wuhan Flu,


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Old 04-09-2021, 09:47 AM   #93
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We have planned for them to flatten-out mid summer, but the old prices will not return.

Lumber isn't the only issue now. HVAC, electric, and plumbing roughs are rising 8-12% after today for us.
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Old 04-09-2021, 09:51 AM   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill View Post
Trumps tariffs increased lumber prices? Please explain since lumber grows in the US and Canada and prices soared with the Wuhan Flu,


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Trump imposed 20% tariffs on Canadian lumber, which allowed US mills to jack their prices up accordingly. That's the purpose of tariffs - to artificially add cost to foreign competitors who are selling at lower prices in order to allow local producers to increase their prices and profit margins. The links I posted have quotes from home builder associations talking about it.
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Old 04-09-2021, 10:05 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by BrianL View Post
Logging prices haven't changed much, so bottleneck must in refining and processing.
Plywood and other sheet goods in our cabinet shop have gone up 40-50%, but solid wood has only gone up a few percent in most cases.
The quality and availability of hardwoods has fallen off quite a lot. I have a stash out at our property I may have to dig into...
An industry economist predicated this sort of thing a few years back, with a lot of data to back it up. I bit on what he said in 2016 and leveraged our business with cheap money to add automation and better equipment to the point I could barely stomach it. Now we’re debt free again and running on all cylinders.
Glues and resin used in panel products are creating shortages for us. Years of paying our bills and being easy customers has paid off now when we need something. It’s still a weekly slap in the face struggle having a solid backlog and fighting to feed the materials into the machine. We’re building the war chest now for an eventual slow down with hopes of picking up some deals on equipment from those who missed the window.
Same economist presented the statement back in 2016, that if you don’t own your first home by 2020, you’ll likely struggle to get one and it will be a larger financial burden than ever before. Having bought my first house in ‘04, and some rentals in ‘06 and paying a mortgage on these houses in ‘09 that I owed twice what they were worth had an impact on me. Now I’m on the other side looking to cash out some single family rentals back into the first time home buyer market. Now with Covid and redevelopment happening, the one city expects me to notify them 90days before I list a rental for sale and do something to re home my tenants.
I don’t envy anyone needing a home, but they’re not my problem.
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Old 04-09-2021, 03:27 PM   #96
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I just received this from a trader we deal with regarding the structural panel market:

Quote:
It was another wild week in the panel markets. Order files pushed out even further, inventories got leaner, and prices surged. Mills, wholesalers, and distributors were extremely busy, and customers were frantically trying to cover anything they could find.



OSB:
7/16 +35
15/32 +40
19/32 +65
23/32 +65

*Mills remain off the market on all OSB items

*Secondaries selling anything they can get their hands on at massive premiums to Random Lengths

*Best guess on order files is July/August



Plywood:
3/8 RS +25
15/32-23/32 RS +50
23/32 STF +40
23/32 Plyform +60
-23/32 AC/BC Sanded +10/+20/+40/+50/+50
11/32 Pine Sidings +40
19/32 Pine Sidings +50

*Mills remain off the market on most items

*Limited offerings are sold at massive premiums to Random Lengths

*All high grade panels like Sanded AC/BC, Pine Sidings, and STF are virtually impossible to buy
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Old 04-09-2021, 04:38 PM   #97
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A General Contractor here in Houston resorted to using Maple or Birch plywood for wall protection in lieu of typical plywood since he could get it cheaper. Steel is up, paint is up since the freeze screwed up some latex plants here in Texas.

The largest project here in Houston for the next couple of years just got shelved this week. Oil needs to get up in price, and production needs o get going again for Houston to recover. Austin is booming on the commercial construction side due to all of the Tech companies building there.
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Old 04-09-2021, 05:26 PM   #98
bcmuzzy
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Some where Texas
Hunt In: Grayson county/ Oklahoma
Default Crazy Inflated Home Construction Costs?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eastwood View Post
If houses are selling for much more than asking so often, why aren't sellers starting out higher? I have no experience in real estate, so I always thought that was odd.

My son built a 950sq ft house 6 yrs ago, it cost him $89,000 to build. He lived there 3.5 yrs and sold it for $175,000. The people who bought it from him listed it this past Monday for $279,000, and bam they had a contract on it by yesterday, for there asking price! Things have gone nuts in north Texas.


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Old 04-09-2021, 05:34 PM   #99
RiverRat1
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Leander
Hunt In: San Saba
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This is how massive inflation works. One or two items sky rocket at a timeand excuses are made as to why. They scream every excuse except inflation.

Get ready. No telling what's next. IMO everything will triple in the next 5-10 years.
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Old 04-09-2021, 08:44 PM   #100
flywise
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Location: Tx
Hunt In: Blanco, Nacadoches,NewMexico,Colorado
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Home Depot has 3/4 standard plywood for $95
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