Will truck prices go down or is this the new normal?

[Swampa]

Like most everything else, they aren’t coming down much if any. Maybe they will offer interest rate incentives on last yr models of the inventory gets back to “normal”


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[tomcat8910]

Supply and demand! Supply is low, which makes for high demand!

[91cavgt]

I guess I’m in the minority here. Prices will most certainly come back down and here is why.


1. All signs point towards gas prices going up over the next few months. Without fail, when gas prices start heading up towards $3.50-$4.00 a gallon, the demand for trucks drops off a cliff, and price drops and incentives quickly follow.


2. Low interest rates won’t be around forever. It seems like most people forget about how high interest rates were in the early 80’s when double digit rates were the norm. The FED has already mentioned that rates will probably start rising next year.


3. The chip shortage will not continue forever. Eventually, those chip orders will be filled and those thousands of trucks sitting in lots will start to move. More than likely the government will be assisting the automakers when this happens.


4. As the economy gets worse, banks are starting to get picky on who they lend money to. It won’t be long before you will need an 800+ credit score AND $10k+ down before they will even consider approving a loan.


Prices WILL come down. How far they come down is wide open for debate.

[BlackoutRam2500]

I guess I’m in the minority here. Prices will most certainly come back down and here is why.


1. All signs point towards gas prices going up over the next few months. Without fail, when gas prices start heading up towards $3.50-$4.00 a gallon, the demand for trucks drops off a cliff, and price drops and incentives quickly follow.


2. Low interest rates won’t be around forever. It seems like most people forget about how high interest rates were in the early 80’s when double digit rates were the norm. The FED has already mentioned that rates will probably start rising next year.


3. The chip shortage will not continue forever. Eventually, those chip orders will be filled and those thousands of trucks sitting in lots will start to move. More than likely the government will be assisting the automakers when this happens.


4. As the economy gets worse, banks are starting to get picky on who they lend money to. It won’t be long before you will need an 800+ credit score AND $10k+ down before they will even consider approving a loan.


Prices WILL come down. How far they come down is wide open for debate.

It's already started. People walking were walking into dealerships 3 months ago and paying $10,000 over sticker. Then it was MSRP being offered as a deal everywhere, and now it's 1% under dealer invoice.

My guess is Ford won't go back to offering their usual $12,500 off of Platinum trucks during "truck month" but we might see 0% for 60 months because that program is already out there for the F150's.

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[js4242]

I swear everything is rigged and a scam now. Chip shortage is like the bullet shortage, a bunch of BS.

Bottom line is if we had capitalism (unhindered) supply would never get this far behind demand. And it would surely catch up quicker when it was behind. Not sure why people can't see everything is manipulated and make up excuse after excuse after excuse. I mean we see the crap our own government does daily and how they spend our tax money but nah, this is just one chip plant that burned down and catching up from covid.
So one chip plant on planet Earth burns down and the whole planet is screwed?

Um - there is a lot more to it than the above and not BS. Fabs are expensive (2 BILLION on the low end) and take over two years to build. A clean room in a fab is 1000x cleaner than the most sterile operating room. As the world electrifies, becomes "smarter", the need for semis grow exponentially. When you hear of certain companies investing in fabs, what technology are they investing in? 7nm, 28nm, 45nm, Etc. They would make the most money investing in 7nm as that is the newest, but the world needs investment in 28nm-90nm where a lot of parts that are short are needed to be made due to physics and limitations of moving to a smaller node. The semi industry is about 5x short in manufacturing capabilities needed to supply the demand created from 5G, EV, smart home, etc. There are over 800 steps in making a semi conductor. In average times, leadtimes are 16-26 weeks and that's with die banks and other short cuts built in. I wish the shortage was BS and Scam, but its NOT.

[CaptainDave]

I think it's inevitable that prices will come down a bit eventually, once the chip shortage is leveled out. I don't believe MSRP will go down much, but I think there will be more manufacturer incentives and/or dealer incentives offered. The used prices would follow suit. The issue is nobody seems to know when this chip shortage will end.

With that said, unless it's some crazy sought after vehicle, I'm not sure who is paying over MSRP. Just bought the wife a new Lexus RX 350 after looking for a few months. Inventory was very low, with only a few coming in each week. You literally had to either find one you liked due in within the next couple months and put down a deposit for them to hold it for you, or you had to order one and wait 3-4 months. Either route, I checked with 3 dealers and all offered literally the same deal. Straight up MSRP, less a small Lexus cash incentive or 2.9% for 60 months. Perhaps trucks are different, but Lexus was not charging a "premium" over MSRP. There just wasn't much incentives to come down from MSRP.

Do I feel like we got ripped off? Not really, but there's no question, pre-shortage, that same vehicle would have been a couple grand less as the incentives would have been much better. We also traded in a 2018 Audi and received a premium on the trade-in, so that basically offset the lack of incentive on the new vehicle and helped a lot with the Sales Taxes.

[sharpstick35]

If people would quit buying the trucks at these prices then the dealers would be forced to drop the prices. too many people driving too much vehicle, and needing a new one every 2 years has caused this as much as anything.

[175gr7.62]

Then I'll never buy a new truck. I refuse to pay sticker for a truck.

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So if they increase the MSRP price $5k, and then give you a $5k discount you'd be okay since you got them to "come off sticker price"?

It's all smoke and mirrors. I remember specifically on here hundreds of people asking "how much are you guys getting off of sticker on (insert truck here)? The general consensus on a $60,000 3/4 ton you could get $10-$13k off 2 years ago. If everyone comes off sticker $10-$13k then sticker price is actually $47k-$50k. If I have a truck on the lot that has a window sticker of $70k and there are people in line that will pay $75k, the the price of truck is now $75k and I dang sure ain't selling it for $70k.

I have been kicking around buying a new truck for the last 5 years. I have looked at least once a month. It just makes no sense anymore. I am a pretty good mechanic and there are very few things on a truck that you can't fix for what 1 or 2 new truck payments would run you.

[WItoTX]

OP, they will come down. If you can hold off a year, there are about to be plenty of lightly used trucks on the market from folks getting kicked off unemployment, and not to mention all the people who panic purchased right now, who just need to get out from under their loans.

We are seeing it with campers right now. The market has come way back down, nearly back to normal (plus inflation). The lots are still fairly empty, but the market is flooded with lightly used units. I see lots of folks posting 2020 models for sale, at the same price point as a brand new one. I'd hazard a guess they sell for much lower than the posted price, because who would buy used when they can get new for the same price? Their description is always like new, or barely used. Trucks will get there. Give it time.

[BlackoutRam2500]

too many people driving too much vehicle, and needing a new one every 2 years has caused this as much as anything.

Demand has already come way down but there is still a healthy market for these trucks because they predominantly sell to businesses. As a small business owner myself there are tons of tax advantages that come with getting a new work truck every few years. It's better to use that money on my business than give it to the government so they can spend it on someone else.



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[gingib]

Truck prices are based off of what idiots will pay for them. So as long as idiots are willing to pay $80,000 to $120,000 for a truck the manufactures will gladly keep the prices there and then try to see if they can push them upwards. If 90% of the truck buyers refuse to pay those numbers, the manufactures will come down on the prices. Most people who spend that type of money on a truck, it's a status/image thing, most have very little use for a truck at all. So those people drive the prices way up for the people who really need a good reliable truck. The manufactures make ridiculous profits off of trucks and have done so for many years now. They could drop the prices by half and still make a very healthy profit. But certain types of people keep that from happening, by going out and spending $100,000 on a truck that will likely never have anything in the bed, other than some plants from Lowes or their luggage on the way to air port. Those people have completely screwed up the truck market. Until those people decide they don't need another truck or the economy actually gets to the point where the majority of those people can not afford to buy a new truck. The truck prices will stay about what they are.

Amen! City drivers pounding concrete with big jacked up trucks. It is comical. living in debt and on CC payments

[Keith]

Amen! City drivers pounding concrete with big jacked up trucks. It is comical. living in debt and on CC payments

But they look so good driving around town.

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[Txhunter3000]

I bought my first non regular cab truck in 2017 (age 64). All of my trucks have been work truck models and I pay cash. I feel better driving around with no debt.

[sr1209]

I ordered my 2022 F250 from Jeremy at Bill Flick and got around 4k off a 80k truck. They offered me 57k on my 2017 f250 with 57k miles on it so i couldn’t pass up getting into a 2022 for 19k before taxes.

I’m doing an in and out so I’ll be around 22k out the door.

Did you have to haggle pretty good to get them to come down or were they easy to work with?

[Black Ice]

Did you have to haggle pretty good to get them to come down or were they easy to work with?

Easy but my dad has bought 3 straight 350’s every two years since 2017. He worked his deal and I told him to have his guy call me and I’d do the same.


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