Stock market

[timoub007]

While it is very hard to time markets they do sometimes give you an off balanced risk/reward one can take advantage of.

https://discussions.texasbowhunter.com/forums/showthread.php?t=758290

IMO - After it just fell 10+% it's too risky to sell. Just look for good buy in prices.

We are about to start releasing true infected numbers here IMO. Stock market may dive this week..

But on the flip side China is recovering so we now have a time line which should remove a lot of the fear. If China infection rate was still rising then everyone would really be scared.

RR1,

Maybe I missed but I did you ever say if you sold three weeks ago when you started that other thread? Did you listen to your gut or ride it down a bit?

T

[bbqfan5909]

Doubled down on my index funds, but I have 20-30 years to recover losses.

[armadillophil]

Super Tuesday might cause another sell off if Bernie shows well.

[scubasteven25]

I invest largely in the Thrift Savings Plan for military and government employees. I had been playing it mostly safe over the past few months but I saw last week as my opportunity to transfer alot of my funds to riskier funds. Stock market history has shown that for every down, there will be a recovery back up. It may not be the bottom but I'm betting the market will come back over 28K at some point and the VIX will drop back down to the low teens once the Coronavirus fears subside. I've also got 16 years before I start drawing on these investments so taking risks is fine by me if it pays out in the long run.

[GarGuy]

Monday should be buy day. I wouldn't be surprised if the market contracts more but I think dow 25k will look like a steal this time next year .

[Charles]

It will drop some more, than go up, than drop again, than go back up, this cycle will continue forever.

[progater]

Right now to me it's just paper. It has risen and fallen all these years I've had my money invested. I let it ride, then in a few years when I get closer to start drawing it out I'll look at it a little better. But for now let it do the roller coaster ride and just watch it.

[Runnin4D]

It will drop some more, than go up, than drop again, than go back up, this cycle will continue forever.

Wow, I didn’t know this.

[RiverRat1]

RR1,

Maybe I missed but I did you ever say if you sold three weeks ago when you started that other thread? Did you listen to your gut or ride it down a bit?

T

I sold the stocks in my personal accounts that I trade before any market drop. My only mistake was waiting too long to buy SPY puts but I was up 600% and 300% on those Friday.

So my personal accounts are up a couple percent. Which is great. Bad news is I did not sell in my main account. Luckily I was only 50% (maybe a little less) in stocks. So I plan to start buying more this week in my main and watching for bottom in my trading accounts.

[RiverRat1]

Monday should be buy day. I wouldn't be surprised if the market contracts more but I think dow 25k will look like a steal this time next year .

You are most likely correct. My only worry is IF we start releasing real numbers of those infected what will happen. Close down Vegas? Schools?

We know there are tons more infected than being reported. Can they just never tell anyone how many are infected until it's all over?

[BigL]

Is here something to buy into while it’s low?

There are a lot of good companies who got pulled down because of the panic. Look for good companies with positive cash flow and enough in reserves to sustain themselves for a while. Also consider stocks that are just a deferred downtrend not ones that missed sales that they will not recoup.

For example:
Missed sales that they can't recoup - Starbucks, Airlines, Cruises. While I expect all of them to eventually recover, people aren't going to go buy 2 coffees because they missed one last week or 2 flights or 2 cruises. Their lower numbers will be both quarterly and annually. These will take a while to recover. While I expect SBUX to recover I don't expect it to be fast especially since I believe 85% of the stores are still closed in China.

Deferred sales - Companies like Apple. Yea they are having supply chain issues but people who want to upgrade and can't right now will still want to as soon as the supply chain issues are resolved. They were going to upgrade this year anyway and will still do it this year.

I think there is good opportunity in the stay at home stocks. Ones like Roku, Netflix, etc. Companies like Amazon as people buy more online to have it delivered.


As for me, I'm not doing much with my stocks. Most of them I bought protective puts before this happened. I'm sitting in pretty good shape right now without selling anything yet. Even if the stock is still below the contract price on it's expiration date, I'm still good as my sell price is much higher and I won't lose any money on mine when I sell it. Most of my options expire in June/July so would still need to be low around that time.

If I don't have options on them, I'm mixed in what I'm doing. Some I'm holding just for the re-invest dividends because I'll pick up more "free" shares from dividends than normal. Most of these are not big positions for me, so have a lot more downside risk tolerance on them because they won't hurt too bad if I miss it on them.

Others I'm watching closely or selling as I get the signals from the charts that it's crossed below my triggers. So far the ones that I plan to use this strategy on are still above on their technicals so it's hold and watch. Some are even up through all this. Stocks like SQ are still up and had a great earnings report. I'm close to a 100% gain in SQ and if it hits that, I may sell half my shares and take my money out and then let someone else's money ride and see what happens.

No need to panic, just staying disciplined. Also there are a lot of great stocks that have been pulled down without a good reason. Look for those especially if they are ones that may have deferred sales later when all is back to normal.

[BigL]

My daughter just received the largest bonus of her career last week. She called for advice and I suggested she sit tight and ride it out with her existing assets. Wait a bit then begin to ladder in 10 percent of your cash weekly.

While no one can predict the bottom I will wait till the news cycle stabilizes a bit and we see a couple of positive days in the market. I would not try to catch a “falling knife”.

Not that I am a financial genius but as I told the young guys at the Texas Shootout who were complaining about having to get back to work on Monday - work hard for 40 yrs, save more than you spend and you too can hunt whenever you choose. It’s really that easy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You can't predict the bottom but you can do more to tell when it's stabilized and is a good time to buy back in. Look at the 20 Day Moving Average, MACD, and RSI charts. If the price is crossing the 20DMA, RSI is approaching or just crossed 50% and trending up, and if the MACD has a bullish crossover that stock is one to consider buying as it's current momentum is positive (I call these the BigL Triple Threat). This approach doesn't have you trying to find the bottom or catch a "falling knife" so you'll miss a few $ below it but you'll have a higher probability of being right than not with this approach because the stock has already showed it could sustain the bounce. There will be a few "dead cat bounces" in there that will go the other way but if you use some stop losses, trailing stops, etc. you can also minimize the impact of those. You can use the reverse of this to when you should sell a stock.

The key is being disciplined and not trading on emotions or when you think it's a good time to get back in. There is a lot of data and charts out there. Use data to help make the decision or at least confirm when you think it's a good time to get back in.

[GarGuy]

I'm not trying to absolutely call bottom. It may drop lower than 25 . I'm just saying that a buy in the Dow at 25 will look great next spring. Some individual stocks that will be better I'm sure.

[BTLowry]

I am not doing anything, just riding it out

3 options I see in the future

1) If the stock market never recovers then there will be millions in the same situation as I am and some solution will rise to the top

2) The stock market will bounce back and I will get back to where I need to be before I retire. Plus while it is down I am buying in lower on my 401k purchases

3) Bernie get's elected and the Democratic devils have not nearly as much of my retirement money to take and share with illegals, deadbeats and the like

[bbqfan5909]

If Bernie gets elected, you will be taxed on those capital gains in 401k, which would mean most will dump 401k.

I am not doing anything, just riding it out

3 options I see in the future

1) If the stock market never recovers then there will be millions in the same situation as I am and some solution will rise to the top

2) The stock market will bounce back and I will get back to where I need to be before I retire. Plus while it is down I am buying in lower on my 401k purchases

3) Bernie get's elected and the Democratic devils have not nearly as much of my retirement money to take and share with illegals, deadbeats and the like