The Market Bottom?

[glen]

Captain- You did good. I’m actually researching a company called PLUG. I can see it possibly being good investment in 5-6 years

[jaime1982]

OP, 12-13k? What are you smoking?

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[Huntingfool]

OP, 12-13k? What are you smoking?

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-should-prepare-for-a-coronavirus-induced-vicious-spiral-more-than-twice-as-bad-as-the-financial-crisis-says-jp-morgan-2020-04-06?mod=article_inline

[Huntingfool]

Some of you may want to go back and read my original post. I discussed where different people are in their investment lives.

My clients are mostly very near retirement or in retirement. They do not have large exposure to the market. Why? Because they were diligent in saving money over many years and are in a position that they do not have to have a lot of market exposure to live out their lives on the money they have. Yes, most all of them are in "buy and hold" because they do not have their life savings at risk in the market. Pretty good position to be in wouldn't you say?

Once again - if you are years away from retirement and not needing to live off of your investments then by all means - trade away.

My post was not to be negative - as I stated - my post was simply what I think could potentially happen in this current market. If you think that is "doom and gloom" then I am sorry but I am certainly not the only one out there who thinks the market could tank for awhile.

If you read the link I posted before this post then you will see there are some other pretty experienced folks saying the same the same thing.

[Artos]

When do you see or how far out is the next low if throwing out a wag??

[Huntingfool]

I have no idea. I have said here many times - timing the market is useless.

I simply stated that based on my many years of going through recessions, savings and loan debacles, 911, the credit crisis in 2008 both personally and with clients that it is wise to be careful in times like this. I stated that I thought the market could go very low so proceed with caution. That is not fear mongering - that is just based on having lived through many up and down markets.
Obviously some here do not like hearing that and that is OK - to each his own.

[JBJTX81]

He won't answer questions like that. They almost always hold. I'd love to find a good FA that told clients to reduce holdings to avoid risk while this was heading our way.[/QUOTE]

I got out at 27960 in late Feb. I got the SARS EBOLA H1N1 its just going to be a little dip bs thrown at me all day long. I'm like "Tom they we welding folks into their apartments and shooting folks in the head at road blocks in China. Trump just said in a presser that we could lock down entire cities. This crap is blowing up in Europe. I'm getting out!" It was fight I'm glad I fought!

[texasdeerhunter]

OP, 12-13k? What are you smoking?

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Don’t throw stones. If the government keeps the economy shut down past May into June or July, I think the low predicted here is possible.

[A&M 90]

Say the government allowed restaurants to reopen today. Are you going to take your family to enjoy a sit down meal?

Would you feel comfortable meeting your elderly parents or grandparents there?

This virus will likely have effects for a good while on how we as a society socialize. That in-turn will likely impact our economy which has considerable dependence on consumer spending at restaurants, entertainment, personal services (hair, nails, etc.)

[A&M 90]

^^^^^
Wrong thread.

[RiverRat1]

IMO the market is nowhere near its bottom. I think it could go to 12-13,000. If you are young and a long term investor then it will eventually recover. In the credit crisis of 2008 with 40-50% losses, the market eventually recovered those loses and made nice gains but that happened over a number of years. That is why younger investors can afford to take more risk because they have time on their side.

If you are at or near retirement then that is a different story. The combination of withdrawing money for income coupled with a severe decline in the market is a bad combination. This is why investing models gradually decrease the percentage in stocks as one ages and nears retirement.

Hope I am wrong but I think we will see the DOW continue to decline for awhile.

Getting further away from your call each day. Long ways to drop now!

Again I ask...What could/would make the markets fall that far? Or even below 20k again? Everything is known at this point..We know unemployment will be high...we know Q1 will be horrible.

[RiverRat1]

Dadgummit, Tim. I don't mean to keep arguing with you, but I have something in my DNA that just cannot accept wrong information and feel the need to correct it.

The S&P 500 was NOT up 90% in 13 months. a 90% increase would have been 1284, and it did not achieve that until Jan, 2011...or 22 months.

It also was not up 150% in 18 months. Remember, it has to double in order to increase by 100%. (if something loses 50% of its value, it has to increase 100% to get back to even.) It took considerably longer than 18 months to increase 150%.

I don't understand your logic to "leave out the two peaks in summer and fall of 2007." Why do that? That is manipulating your numbers. The market peaked in October, 2007, so that is what the drop and recovery is based on/off.

I apologize for my compulsion to correct wrong information.

What was the low on 03/02/2009?
What was the high 13 months later on 04/02/2010?

You are a financial guy. All I ever hear from you guys is that no one can time markets (or peaks/bottoms). Just because a stock or market does a quick jump that does not mean that's exactly what it was worth.

If "recovered" means getting back 100% of previous peak then no athlete ever recovers from an injury. And market dynamics are different going forward after a crash. And people average in to the markets... I'm sure there are a very slim few people who bought at the peak but 99% didn't.

Are you telling clients to not buy now because markets are up 5,500 points off the low?
If a client asks how much he's down AFTER the drop off 2008.. Do you say you could have sold for "x" on the peak day? Hell no you don't. You most likely tell them what they're averaged in at which is WAY lower than the peak.

[Shane]

Say the government allowed restaurants to reopen today. Are you going to take your family to enjoy a sit down meal?

Would you feel comfortable meeting your elderly parents or grandparents there?

This virus will likely have effects for a good while on how we as a society socialize. That in-turn will likely impact our economy which has considerable dependence on consumer spending at restaurants, entertainment, personal services (hair, nails, etc.)

Yes.

No, old sick people need to quarantine.

Yep, but the impact won't be nearly as bad if we get the economy opened back up sooner rather than later. That doesn't mean things will instantly be "back to normal" as if the virus didn't exist. But we can open up and still take reasonable precautions.

[RiverRat1]

IMO the market is nowhere near its bottom. I think it could go to 12-13,000. If you are young and a long term investor then it will eventually recover. In the credit crisis of 2008 with 40-50% losses, the market eventually recovered those loses and made nice gains but that happened over a number of years. That is why younger investors can afford to take more risk because they have time on their side.

If you are at or near retirement then that is a different story. The combination of withdrawing money for income coupled with a severe decline in the market is a bad combination. This is why investing models gradually decrease the percentage in stocks as one ages and nears retirement.

Hope I am wrong but I think we will see the DOW continue to decline for awhile.

Some of you may want to go back and read my original post. I discussed where different people are in their investment lives.

My clients are mostly very near retirement or in retirement. They do not have large exposure to the market. Why? Because they were diligent in saving money over many years and are in a position that they do not have to have a lot of market exposure to live out their lives on the money they have. Yes, most all of them are in "buy and hold" because they do not have their life savings at risk in the market. Pretty good position to be in wouldn't you say?

Once again - if you are years away from retirement and not needing to live off of your investments then by all means - trade away.

My post was not to be negative - as I stated - my post was simply what I think could potentially happen in this current market. If you think that is "doom and gloom" then I am sorry but I am certainly not the only one out there who thinks the market could tank for awhile.

If you read the link I posted before this post then you will see there are some other pretty experienced folks saying the same the same thing.

Why in the world would one hold long when DOW is at 24,000 if their FA says the DOW will drop to half of that?

If you said there's a 10% chance the markets drop 10-20% then I could see holding. But to seem sure it will fall 40-50% and to have them hold is plain wrong.

I don't care if one has a billion in cash.. Why hold 100k in stocks if you seriously think they will lose half their value?

[jaime1982]

just 41 years as a financial planner with a securities license - over four decades of seeing every kind of market and situation you can imagine. Working first hand with hundreds of successful clients. Your background and why folks should deem you relevant?

I'm guessing this was a market situation that nobody could have ever imagined lol.

I'm glad this isnt going as predicted although we aren't in the clear just yet.

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