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Old 01-24-2021, 12:19 AM   #1
W E H
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I know everyone is stirred up about ammo ďshortagesĒ but can someone explain to me why 2x4 framing studs went from $2 to $8 and OSB Decking went from $8 to $30?

Iím not buying supply and demand. Somewhere someone is making some coin because those are the prices from regular lumber yard and Home Depot/Lowes. Not some dude that stood in line outside of Home Depot for 3 hours to but 5 2x4ís and resell them on the internet
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:22 AM   #2
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Hate to tell ya but been that way for about 8 months now. Take a look at the lumber stock futures and you’ll see the crazy spikes in prices steadily becoming the norm. Although I I don’t think I’ve ever seen OSB for $8 a sheet.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:25 AM   #3
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They were climbing all year last year after Covid and dropped right before Christmas to $4.25-$4.40. They have shot right back through the roof again. I've put several projects on hold because of it.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:27 AM   #4
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Itís insane...we waited a year too long to build an addition on the house. What should have been close to $20k is over $40k now. But I ainít waiting on prices to change, the boys ainít getting any younger and the house is getting smaller with 3 15 year olds in it
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:29 AM   #5
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Its ridiculous! I bought some 2 x 4s today at $5.79 apiece!
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:31 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Bradical BH View Post
Hate to tell ya but been that way for about 8 months now. Take a look at the lumber stock futures and youíll see the crazy spikes in prices steadily becoming the norm. Although I I donít think Iíve ever seen OSB for $8 a sheet.
I know itís been going on for a while, Iím in real estate business too. I just havenít got an answer as to why.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:32 AM   #7
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I work in the residential building industry and the two hurricanes that went thru Louisiana damaged the mills causing shut downs which shut down milling and created a supply and demand issue. Once one distributor pays what they have to, to keep filling their orders, the pricing then gets raised to a new level and on and on. This is not my opinion rather what I was told by my salesman at the lumber yards. We also saw price gouging which screws the curve for a reset. Add on top of that a huge surge in new home sales and it’s a perfect storm. It’s slowly coming back down though.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:33 AM   #8
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Mills shutting down from the virus is what I’ve been told.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:36 AM   #9
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I heard both hurricane and COVID as excuses but I didnít the mills were that shut down. Those make some sense. If the mills are operating. But usually the hurricane thingy levels out in 6 months. But still the cost is being inflated somewhere.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:37 AM   #10
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Hate to tell ya but been that way for about 8 months now. Take a look at the lumber stock futures and youíll see the crazy spikes in prices steadily becoming the norm. Although I I donít think Iíve ever seen OSB for $8 a sheet.
My builder friend was buying decking for $6.35 a sheet this time last year. Crazy prices now.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:42 AM   #11
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My builder friend was buying decking for $6.35 a sheet this time last year. Crazy prices now.
I went in to reroof one of my houses in July Was banking on $8 a sheet and ended up a $25. That left a mark but I had to do it so I just paid it.

Shingles have gone up but not like that.
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Old 01-24-2021, 12:55 AM   #12
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It’s a combination of things. Long term interest rates are at historic lows (and have been low for a while). Which means that people can afford to build bigger houses, thus elevating the demand side. Then you have large corporations controlling the supply side, and they are setting the market price to take advantage of the demand side. And the consumer is caught in the middle taking it up the shorts.

Walk into any lumber yard, and their lumber prices are 30-50% higher than they were a year ago. Then, go find 20-50 landowners and ask them how much they are getting for their timber (saw logs). I guarantee you that you won’t find a raw timber supplier getting 20% more for his trees this year than he was last year. So a reasonable conclusion is that the saw mills and OSB/particle board plants are controlling the price and market. GP is basically a monopoly (in the south at least)
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Old 01-24-2021, 01:21 AM   #13
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I haven't paid attention to lumber prices in a couple if years.. I bought the lumber to build stairs and finish decking a storage space in my shop.. my jaw dropped when the lady told me the price.. 48 dollars a piece for 16 ft 2x12s.. I figured 350 to 400 bucks for what I needed. Ended up almost 700 dollars. Everything but the 2x12s would fit in the bed of my truck.
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Old 01-24-2021, 02:17 AM   #14
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FYI - Hurricane Laura destroyed over 750,000 acres of timber resulting in a loss of $1.6B for LA

People in Lake Charles are having lumber and roofing supplies shipped in from Houston.
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Old 01-24-2021, 02:53 AM   #15
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I did notice the prices dropped down some in December but has climbed back up. I do know the 2x4 studs were down to like 4.65 at Lowe’s in decent in Lufkin Tx. The reason I say this is because I seen a few people loafing up on them in which made me go look.
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Old 01-24-2021, 03:30 AM   #16
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Covid, wild fires , hurricanes and low interest rates on homes. Everyone needs wood so they raise the market. People are still paying it
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Old 01-24-2021, 06:56 AM   #17
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We pushed back building on our land in Harper for a year and it will be costing us an extra 32K in increased lumber and material cost. I feel your pain.
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:09 AM   #18
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I was born hundreds of years late. But definitely prefer it before Spaniards arrived. I’d rather lance some Buffalo, chop a few trees, and live in a teepee. Price of lumber is insane, but I’m still building my house. Life goes on..
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:09 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by texasdeerhunter View Post
Itís a combination of things. Long term interest rates are at historic lows (and have been low for a while). Which means that people can afford to build bigger houses, thus elevating the demand side. Then you have large corporations controlling the supply side, and they are setting the market price to take advantage of the demand side. And the consumer is caught in the middle taking it up the shorts.

Walk into any lumber yard, and their lumber prices are 30-50% higher than they were a year ago. Then, go find 20-50 landowners and ask them how much they are getting for their timber (saw logs). I guarantee you that you wonít find a raw timber supplier getting 20% more for his trees this year than he was last year. So a reasonable conclusion is that the saw mills and OSB/particle board plants are controlling the price and market. GP is basically a monopoly (in the south at least)
This is pretty spot on
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:19 AM   #20
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When you got something called "lumber futures" there's a lot of people in the middle trying to squeeze out there nickel by doing nothing...
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:30 AM   #21
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I read that higher lumber prices are adding an average of $16,000 to the cost of a new house. I was in HD yesterday buying wood for a new shop project and was shocked to see they wanted $19 for a 1x6x8 piece of select pine
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:35 AM   #22
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at least McDonalds prices have dropped.
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:04 AM   #23
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Being on an East Tx timber lease right now is like playing Russian roulette.
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:18 AM   #24
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U.S. housing starts, building permits accelerate


Quote:
U.S. homebuilding and permits surged in December as historically low mortgage rates supported the housing market, but momentum could slow amid surging lumber prices and a shortage of labor.

Housing starts jumped 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.669 million units last month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would rise to a rate of 1.560 million units in December. Homebuilding increased 5.2% on a year-on-year basis. Starts totaled 1.380 million in 2020, up 7.0% from 2019.

Permits for future homebuilding accelerated 4.5% to a rate of 1.709 million units in December. Permits, which typically lead starts by one to two months, totaled 1.452 million last year, a 4.8% increase from 2019.

Single-family homebuilding, the largest share of the housing market, soared 12.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.338 million units. Single-family starts have increased for eight straight months.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/hous...mber-2020.html

Whatís happening to Lumber Prices?

Quote:
The boom in the building/remodeling industries turned the tables on the lumber industry. Mills and other processing facilities went from having an excess supply of wood to a shortfall in what seemed like a momentís notice.

Ultimately, as the demand for lumber continued to increase over the past few months, supply has not been able to catch up, resulting in an increase in lumberís cost by 340% or more in particular locations.

https://www.trinitybuildingsystems.c...umber-so-high/
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:19 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by texasdeerhunter View Post
Itís a combination of things. Long term interest rates are at historic lows (and have been low for a while). Which means that people can afford to build bigger houses, thus elevating the demand side. Then you have large corporations controlling the supply side, and they are setting the market price to take advantage of the demand side. And the consumer is caught in the middle taking it up the shorts.

Walk into any lumber yard, and their lumber prices are 30-50% higher than they were a year ago. Then, go find 20-50 landowners and ask them how much they are getting for their timber (saw logs). I guarantee you that you wonít find a raw timber supplier getting 20% more for his trees this year than he was last year. So a reasonable conclusion is that the saw mills and OSB/particle board plants are controlling the price and market. GP is basically a monopoly (in the south at least)
Thatís sadly what I wanted to hear. Theyíre the ones that are making to money. I know my local guys have a standard markup. Now I have someone to be mad at.
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:39 AM   #26
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Everything is going up. The price of metal is skyrocketing.
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:41 AM   #27
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Well I can tell you it ain’t us small tree farm owners.
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:43 AM   #28
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Made these gliders for my kids. $280 per glider for the cedar. On a good note, I have enough cedar to turn a bunch of pens


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Old 01-24-2021, 08:53 AM   #29
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Well I can tell you it ainít us small tree farm owners.
Yea. I read on another forum a guy was offered 22 dollars a ton for pine logs.

We haven't cut in over 10 years and got more than that then

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Old 01-24-2021, 09:18 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Bayouboy View Post
Being on an East Tx timber lease right now is like playing Russian roulette.
May I ask what you were expecting by being on a Industrial timberland lease?

I can say, this isn't being caused by the timberland owners. High prices are being driven by the mills and all the middleman handlers. Im sure it has alittle to do with covid issues at the mills,, but I also think they are running at nearly full tilt and still can't keep up with demand thus driving prices up.
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Old 01-24-2021, 09:19 AM   #31
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10pc - 1"x8"x16' cypress boards are costing me $600.00
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Old 01-24-2021, 09:46 AM   #32
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It’s not just lumber either. I have a friend that is an electrical supplier for Beazer and Perry homes. They are waiting on 250 electrical panels at the moment that are back ordered. He predicts the average 2200sq ft house will cost a builder $300,000 to build by the end of the year.
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Old 01-24-2021, 09:49 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Bayouboy View Post
Being on an East Tx timber lease right now is like playing Russian roulette.
The mills are not paying anything for lumber right now. They have it sitting on their lots and canít cut it fast enough. Thatís why the prices are so high. They are making a killing because of this.
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Old 01-24-2021, 10:02 AM   #34
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Mills shutting down from the virus is what Iíve been told.
This/\
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Old 01-24-2021, 03:32 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by tdwinklr View Post
at least McDonalds prices have dropped.

Wait until that new minimum wage goes into effect.


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Last edited by Deadfall65; 01-24-2021 at 03:39 PM.
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Old 01-24-2021, 05:09 PM   #36
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What do you think they are using to board up all the businesses in this country?
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Old 01-24-2021, 05:22 PM   #37
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My wife works for a builder and between Covid and hurricanes it really hurt the Mills.

Try and get windows for a new build right now. Way back ordered.


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Old 01-24-2021, 05:36 PM   #38
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Bought 2x6x10 ww boards were $14 each couple yrs ago when built fence was less than $5 and last yr I whined about $10
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Old 01-24-2021, 06:18 PM   #39
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Demand is high and add on Trump tariffs to Canadian lumber....tariffs have been reduced but not to zero.

"Commerce Department Cuts Lumber Tariffs from 20% to 9% | NAHB Now | The News Blog of the National Association of Home Builders" http://nahbnow.com/2020/12/commerce-...-from-20-to-9/
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Old 01-24-2021, 06:21 PM   #40
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Man it sucks! I just broke ground on a new house. Luckily I’m building metal so the only lumber I need is for interior framing. But with the way it’s going I might be doing all my frame out in metal!
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Old 01-24-2021, 06:35 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by texasdeerhunter View Post
It’s a combination of things. Long term interest rates are at historic lows (and have been low for a while). Which means that people can afford to build bigger houses, thus elevating the demand side. Then you have large corporations controlling the supply side, and they are setting the market price to take advantage of the demand side. And the consumer is caught in the middle taking it up the shorts.

Walk into any lumber yard, and their lumber prices are 30-50% higher than they were a year ago. Then, go find 20-50 landowners and ask them how much they are getting for their timber (saw logs). I guarantee you that you won’t find a raw timber supplier getting 20% more for his trees this year than he was last year. So a reasonable conclusion is that the saw mills and OSB/particle board plants are controlling the price and market. GP is basically a monopoly (in the south at least)
All true...lots of things contributing to this perfect storm. But it’s mostly increase demand IMO. Ridiculously low interest rates and folks staying home during CV’s peak found out just how small their homes really were with everybody IN it.....so they want to move to bigger homes.

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Originally Posted by captainsling View Post
It’s not just lumber either. I have a friend that is an electrical supplier for Beazer and Perry homes. They are waiting on 250 electrical panels at the moment that are back ordered. He predicts the average 2200sq ft house will cost a builder $300,000 to build by the end of the year.
And this as well.....it’s SUPPLY and DEMAND!

We are having a house built right now and I am so glad we decided to not go Cost Plus like so many people suggested. We’ve been under a Hard Cost contract with our builder since July. He showed me his invoice on just the lumber package and his cost was more than 35% higher than when he bid it. Lumber and windows are stupid crazy right now. He ordered our windows the first week of November and they aren’t even in production yet.
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Old 01-24-2021, 06:39 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Acameron52 View Post
Man it sucks! I just broke ground on a new house. Luckily Iím building metal so the only lumber I need is for interior framing. But with the way itís going I might be doing all my frame out in metal!

Metal is 30-40% and rumors of another big jump in a few months.
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:03 PM   #43
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Has any one built a home with aluminum studs like a wearhouse?
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:10 PM   #44
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PINE has been taking more and more market share. It is stretching further north than ever. The beetle -kill situation for the Canadian producers has limited their production. We have seen numerous Canadian producers build and buy mills in the south.

But it is supply and demand. Demand for multi-family has been strong and now low interest rates allow buyers to ignore the additional cost of material. Supply has been impacted by covid for sure. Also some mills had to spend capital so there were some upgrades Transportation cost are up as well. But I can assure you, mills want to make as much wood as absolutely possible at these prices.
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:15 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by LFD2037 View Post
Mills shutting down from the virus is what Iíve been told.
That would seem to make sense since since there is usually a 6-month storage of stuff manufactured, then when there is an interruption in the supply chain (like Covid) the "they don't have anything and what is available is outrageous" thing happens.
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:36 PM   #46
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We hope to be building a home Summer of next year. I hope and pray material prices are lower, and that mortgage rates remain low at that time!
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Old 01-24-2021, 07:44 PM   #47
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Was going to put a new floor on my lowboy today. $30 for a treated 2x10x16, I’ll wait a bit
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:19 PM   #48
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Yes, I just bought lumber for a chicken coop build and raised garden beds. I wonít say how much I paid. But it was freakin ridiculous.
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Old 01-24-2021, 08:31 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Kmiles84 View Post
Was going to put a new floor on my lowboy today. $30 for a treated 2x10x16, Iíll wait a bit
Look around your area for saw mills that sell cut-up telephone poles, for trailer beds.

About 7-8 years ago, I put in a new bed on a 16' trailer for less than $150, and I will never have to replace that bed again. Prices have gone up, since then, but it is still probably a cheaper/better option than buying treated lumber, from a box-store.
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Old 01-25-2021, 07:25 AM   #50
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And this as well.....itís SUPPLY and DEMAND!

We are having a house built right now and I am so glad we decided to not go Cost Plus like so many people suggested. Weíve been under a Hard Cost contract with our builder since July. He showed me his invoice on just the lumber package and his cost was more than 35% higher than when he bid it. Lumber and windows are stupid crazy right now. He ordered our windows the first week of November and they arenít even in production yet.
You better hope your builder makes it to the end of your project. Then if he does hope he makes through warranty period. He is not very smart if he doesn't have a clause in his contract stating that once "x" amount of increase in material that cost is passed on to the buyer as it should be.
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