Tropical Weather Discussion 2018

[DamonJ]

Not looking good for the south opener...


In to follow the reports

Not at all.. I may go even if I have to sit on the porch and watch it rain all weekend...

[Pineywoodkiller]

Not at all.. I may go even if I have to sit on the porch and watch it rain all weekend...

Ya same here. We shall see. I was planning dove for Friday and teal on Saturday morning


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[Smart]

Not at all.. I may go even if I have to sit on the porch and watch it rain all weekend...

I've had two great weekends of bird killing since the Central opener and been out of town every weekend since July 28th. I'm think I'm gonna pass on driving 6 hours to watch it rain and stomp in the mud from my brother's back porch if that's what we get.. I'll see them at Thanksgiving.

[sqiggy]

Has your place missed all this moisture this last week? I think we picked up close to 7 inches.

It seems like it hasn't done anything but rain in Spring for a week straight.

I took a peak at my neighbor's rain gauge yesterday. Just a little over a inch here at my place in Robertson Co. Been missing all the rain. I need a good 3 day soaking and then some!!!

[rut-ro]

I took a peak at my neighbor's rain gauge yesterday. Just a little over a inch here at my place in Robertson Co. Been missing all the rain. I need a good 3 day soaking and then some!!!

We got about 2 inches in Normangee this past weekend. Hope to get some more the next couple weeks. Grass is turning green and he acorns are blooming. Time to move deep into the woods.

[Cur_Dog]

Couple of early guesses

[txwhitetail]

Bring the rain to west Texas!

[Mjjust]

Bring the rain to west Texas!

Amen

I like that light green track above.

[Jaybo31]

Sept 13th is the 10 year anniversary of Ike landfall on Galveston. Go...way

[ccbluewater]

Sept 13th is the 10 year anniversary of Ike landfall on Galveston. Go...way

20 years ago today, Tropical Storm Frances made landfall and dumped a ton of rain in areas, especially Harris County.

[Jaybo31]

20 years ago today, Tropical Storm Frances made landfall and dumped a ton of rain in areas, especially Harris County.

Yep forgot about that one

[ccbluewater]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff Lindner with HCFCD regarding 95L:

Tropical cyclone formation remains possible for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane plans and kits in place.

There has been little change in organization of the tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea overnight. Sporadic deep convection continues to develop in an near what is most likely a mid level low pressure system. Thus far there have not been any surface observations to support any surface low pressure formation. Upper level winds remain fairly strong out of the WSW/W as the system is on the eastern side of a weakening upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this upper trough weakens and the tropical wave axis moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico upper level winds will become somewhat more favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone.

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models either maintain an open tropical wave or attempt to close off a surface low pressure system along the wave axis in the Thursday and Friday period as the feature moves NW toward the TX coast. It is unclear at this point if the system will be able to close off a surface low, but development chances increase as it nears the TX coast late this week…so things can and will likely change quickly on Thursday and Friday.

Regardless of actual development of a closed low pressure system the main impacts appear to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Wet and soggy grounds are already in place over much of coastal TX and additional rainfall is likely both today and Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture with the tropical feature will begin to arrive on the TX coast late Friday with bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading along the TX coast Friday and into Saturday.

At the moment it is still too early to discuss specific impacts, but the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding late this week into this weekend along the entire TX coast is increasing. For now will leave tides, winds, and seas alone and await better trends in any center track and intensity of the feature. Even an open wave axis will likely produce 20-30kts across the NW Gulf waters. This could be a system where much of the adverse conditions will occur to the north and east of any actual surface center.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week and weekend is low and residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the next few days for changes.

[Traildust]

Bring the rain to west Texas!

Hope yall get all of it. We are saturated!

[TexasBob]

Sept 13th is the 10 year anniversary of Ike landfall on Galveston. Go...way

10 years... dang. But not long enough.

So I see all the convection north east if the low which to me slings it over Houston based on those model tracks. Would that be plausible? Even the space city weather guys didn’t have much to say about rainfall for the weekend


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[SaltwaterSlick]

Has your place missed all this moisture this last week? I think we picked up close to 7 inches.

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We hadn't gotten anything on our place up until this week since a small shower back in early July... Rancher moved the cattle out to other parts of the ranch that has gotten some good rains... We're off Vaquillas Rd. South of Mirando City. Some parts of the ranch closer to Mirando City got good rain in July and August, but I guess we ain't payin' the preacher right or somethin'...

Haven't talked to the rancher this week but intend to... sure hope we got at least some rain... need a tank filler tho.