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Old 10-14-2021, 07:11 AM   #1
RiverRat1
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Default Why are weather apps so wrong?

Is it not logical to think that weather apps make money just like most other internet sites. More clicks=more money?

So when there's a chance of rain they bump the chance way high 5-8 days out and then lower closer to real odds as the possible rain nears?

I see this happen almost every single time. 30-50% chance of rain 7 days out slowly changes to 90-100% chance of rain about 3 days out and then down to 0-10% the day it was supposed to rain.

Just yesterday at 8:30pm they had rain ALL day today 60-90%. I woke up at 5am and they took all rain out of the forcast for today
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:39 AM   #2
crxshooter
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You're asking about folks that go stand in a hurricane in front of a camera to tell you it's raining and windy.
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:42 AM   #3
Mbbriggs05
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Is it not logical to think that weather apps make money just like most other internet sites. More clicks=more money?

So when there's a chance of rain they bump the chance way high 5-8 days out and then lower closer to real odds as the possible rain nears?

I see this happen almost every single time. 30-50% chance of rain 7 days out slowly changes to 90-100% chance of rain about 3 days out and then down to 0-10% the day it was supposed to rain.

Just yesterday at 8:30pm they had rain ALL day today 60-90%. I woke up at 5am and they took all rain out of the forcast for today
I guess I could have put this as one of my pet peeves on the pet peeve thread. So aggravating!
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:43 AM   #4
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WeatherBug app is useless
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:45 AM   #5
Kong
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All weathermen suck as far as I’m concerned but in this instance I’m truly happy we didn’t get anywhere near what they were calling for. The forecast was for 4-7 inches and we got a little over an 1 3/4’s, we needed a little rain but 7”s would have been devastating on our season up here in the river bottoms.

I’ve come to the conclusion that they way over predict in order to get more views and to draw more Interest to the situation,, aka money/attention “bad word” looking to make a splash.
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:45 AM   #6
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You know this happens yet you are still surprised by it?!

I think they rely solely on computer mods and they are only so accurate on the location of where the rain will hit….

I wonder how the old school weatherman did the forecast, or was it only two or three days out?
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:57 AM   #7
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Tim there is not one person that can predict Mother Nature- If they could the name would change to father nature
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:00 AM   #8
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Tim there is not one person that can predict Mother Nature- If they could the name would change to father nature
That's funny
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:00 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kong View Post
All weathermen suck as far as Iím concerned but in this instance Iím truly happy we didnít get anywhere near what they were calling for. The forecast was for 4-7 inches and we got a little over an 1 3/4ís, we needed a little rain but 7Ēs would have been devastating on our season up here in the river bottoms.

Iíve come to the conclusion that they way over predict in order to get more views and to draw more Interest to the situation,, aka money/attention ďbad wordĒ looking to make a splash.
Its better to over predict on a weather event than under estimate it for safety reasons. Glad y'all didn't get the 7" of rain.
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:04 AM   #10
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Tim this has been a long standing argument here. Wife watches local news and comes to a decision about todays weather and I watch a weather station 2 blocks from the house. The guy on Fox is reporting on an area from Conroe to Galveston and does a very generic report. My station is always different and usually right.
We live just south of downtown and the buildings break up most fronts coming in from the north. North of I10 is almost always different from South of I10 - fronts, rain fall, temps, etc.
I want to know how a weather ststion at a school 2 blocks over can make todays guess??
I use weather bug to connect to the school...
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:15 AM   #11
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Weatherman and politician are the only two jobs you can be wrong EVERY SINGLE DAY and still get paid.
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:17 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glen View Post
Tim there is not one person that can predict Mother Nature- If they could the name would change to father nature
LOL

I brought this up because I thought..Geez it's literally impossible to be wrong every single time!

I think it has to be a type of click bait.
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:24 AM   #13
ThisLadyHunts
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Quote:
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Tim there is not one person that can predict Mother Nature- If they could the name would change to father nature
Hah! Snarkiness becomes you.
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Old 10-14-2021, 09:33 AM   #14
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Because it’s an educated, scientific WAG. You know…kinda like the science we keep hearing about all the time.
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:51 AM   #15
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God has a sense of humor. He sees the weather forecast too. If I was him I would swap it up also.
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Old 10-14-2021, 11:05 AM   #16
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As I understand it all the weather apps base their longer term forecasts on the same info they get from NOAA. Any difference is in how they interpret/present it. I had a meteorologist tell me they know full well that forecasting 7 days out with any accuracy is essentially pointless but they do it because the public wants it.
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Old 10-14-2021, 11:52 AM   #17
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I gives us ranchers hope just to be let down time after time after time. LOL!!
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Old 10-14-2021, 12:04 PM   #18
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I think you are right, its like any other social media.. the engagement drives more revenue so frequent changing makes you check it more frequently, in turn generate ads.
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Old 10-14-2021, 01:12 PM   #19
RiverRat1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jerp View Post
As I understand it all the weather apps base their longer term forecasts on the same info they get from NOAA. Any difference is in how they interpret/present it. I had a meteorologist tell me they know full well that forecasting 7 days out with any accuracy is essentially pointless but they do it because the public wants it.
I get this. Point is they seem to be wrong almost all the time. Not some or half or even most but nearly all the time.
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Old 10-14-2021, 01:17 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JES View Post
You know this happens yet you are still surprised by it?!

I think they rely solely on computer mods and they are only so accurate on the location of where the rain will hitÖ.

I wonder how the old school weatherman did the forecast, or was it only two or three days out?
We had one in East Texas that was about 90% right. His name is Bob Peters, he is blind, but he knows weather ! I miss him so much since he retired ! These slugs we have now send the dog out and if he comes back wet they tell you itís rainingÖÖ..
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Old 10-14-2021, 01:17 PM   #21
jerp
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Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
I get this. Point is they seem to be wrong almost all the time. Not some or half or even most but nearly all the time.
You are right that they are mostly wrong but for some reason I can't help myself. If I have a weekend hunting/fishing trip planned I check the weather 4-5 times a day starting Monday even though I know it's likely to change
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Old 10-14-2021, 01:38 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jerp View Post
You are right that they are mostly wrong but for some reason I can't help myself. If I have a weekend hunting/fishing trip planned I check the weather 4-5 times a day starting Monday even though I know it's likely to change
Someone needs to combine a betting App with the weather App It would be easy money.

For instance they had Saturdays high at 70 the last 2-3 days. I'd wager it goes up. Let me go look. Only up to 72 now LOL I'd still bet it goes higher.
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Old 10-14-2021, 01:48 PM   #23
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Weather Apps suck in general...they are computer automated. I don't have one single weather app on my phone.

Probably the best thing to do if you are wanting to get a decent grasp on your weather for the next week is go to the National Weather Service homepage, type in your location and read the "forecast discussion" that is put out I believe 3 times a day.


https://www.weather.gov/

Last edited by Johnny; 10-14-2021 at 01:51 PM.
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Old 10-14-2021, 02:24 PM   #24
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I'm always baffled by people who actually get mad that other people can't predict the future....


If you're so **** smart, you tell us how much it's going to rain!
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Old 10-14-2021, 05:24 PM   #25
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Bad weather has become such a profit machine for news networks that it was to unbearable for me to watch anymore.

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Old 10-14-2021, 07:06 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Moser View Post
I'm always baffled by people who actually get mad that other people can't predict the future....


If you're so **** smart, you tell us how much it's going to rain!
Agreed.

Why does it upset you so much, Tim? Would you rather them just not predict anything and simply state they donít know? Geez. R.E. L. A. X.
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:17 PM   #27
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One must understand that weather is like the female mind. It changes every 15 minutes and not always for the best. It is however always right. Deal with it!
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Old 10-14-2021, 09:07 PM   #28
RiverRat1
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Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
Agreed.

Why does it upset you so much, Tim? Would you rather them just not predict anything and simply state they donít know? Geez. R.E. L. A. X.
Just trying to find out if they're wrong on purpose to get clicks. Not upset LOL

And I think you missed the point.

You can predict a stock goes up to your price target on Tuesday and I promise you'll be right a few times When these guys predict rain or cool weather in summer they're always wrong.
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Old 10-15-2021, 01:31 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
Weather Apps suck in general...they are computer automated. I don't have one single weather app on my phone.

Probably the best thing to do if you are wanting to get a decent grasp on your weather for the next week is go to the National Weather Service homepage, type in your location and read the "forecast discussion" that is put out I believe 3 times a day.


https://www.weather.gov/
Heck, I was gonna say that itís because they donít check with you
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