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Old 09-11-2018, 01:09 PM   #201
johnpaul
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Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
Are you flying meat home (Assuming you get one)? What is your set up for that? I only ask because the only reason I drive is to get meat home, and to be 100% sure all my gear makes it to my destination.

Sorry OP, I know its off topic.
We are not flying meat home. If the storm is supposed to dump 10”~ of rain on Houston still by Thursday morning forecasts then we are just going to have to drive I think.
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Old 09-11-2018, 01:38 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by johnpaul View Post
We are not flying meat home. If the storm is supposed to dump 10”~ of rain on Houston still by Thursday morning forecasts then we are just going to have to drive I think.
At this point in time, I don't think anyone knows for sure what types of conditions Houston may have. Going to have wait and make a call on that late tomorrow or Early Thursday most likely.

Looking at latest batch of computer runs, not seeing a whole lot being made up of this at this point.. meaning not seeing a Strong TS/Hurricane type situation. Never know though when talking about the bath water GOM though so don't take my opinions as more than just that. Euro hasn't run yet this afternoon(will be shortly) and it has been the most bullish on this one. It showed a TS most likely coming ashore around Corpus on Friday. 12Z GFS doesnt do much with it, and never closes it off at surface but the highest vorticity comes ashore slightly N of Corpus Friday morning. Others vary in solutions, but basically the same at this time. Trend is weak & sloppy.. Hopefully it stays that way.

Isaac is still one to watch. GFS & Euro both buried it into Central America, but need to keep an eye on that one as well.
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Old 09-11-2018, 01:55 PM   #203
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Don't know how accurate/reliable the CMC model is, but it has Issac passing through the Yucatan slot.

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Old 09-11-2018, 01:57 PM   #204
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My hurricane tracker app just alerted 95L now has a high probability of developing into a cyclone.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:01 PM   #205
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My hurricane tracker app just alerted 95L now has a high probability of developing into a cyclone.
Same!
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:03 PM   #206
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Great...I am supposed to land in Houston from an Argentina business trip Friday morning at 5:30am. Wonder if I can sneak in before this hits?
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:09 PM   #207
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The NAM is showing a 1008mb TD or TS making landfall around Corpus Christi Friday afternoon. This is just one models output. Either way looks defiant that additional moisture will be streaming into Texas over the weekend
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:11 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by SaltwaterSlick View Post
Just got a text from our ranch foreman and looks like we've had 7-9 inches on most parts of our ranch in the past few days!! We sure needed it!!
Good news! I figured you guys got it too!

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Old 09-11-2018, 02:20 PM   #209
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Yea, couple of our dirt tanks have a bunch of catfish in them and I'm pretty sure they weren't far from being overheated in the low water... Looks like that issue has been averted for now!
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:25 PM   #210
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Looks like my guided teal hunt in Katy,Tx for Saterday morning will still be a go then.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:34 PM   #211
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where do you guys go to get these future model runs?
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:39 PM   #212
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Looks like my guided teal hunt in Katy,Tx for Saterday morning will still be a go then.
Other than the birds (what few there are) will be scattered out pretty good...
I was out there last week and saw a grand total of 4 teal buzzing probably 2,000 acres of rice. Lots of rice on the prairie and now lots of other water for them to work...

Teal hunting can be boom or bust depending on timing... One day none, next day they're everywhere, then back to none... Just gotta get out there and try to get lucky with timing as they come thru this part of the country on their way farther south...

Good luck!
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:40 PM   #213
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12z Euro looks about the same as last night's run. Weak TS into the Corpus area.
Also you can see how this particular model run wants to spread the rain.. I wouldn't use that as a take it to the bank number, but gives an idea of what the model is thinking.

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Old 09-11-2018, 02:40 PM   #214
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Originally Posted by Cur_Dog View Post
where do you guys go to get these future model runs?
This is one site I visit.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:42 PM   #215
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Thank you! Perfect.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:47 PM   #216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cur_Dog View Post
where do you guys go to get these future model runs?
Storm2k
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:54 PM   #217
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:56 PM   #218
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https://weather.us/

This is also a great site. You can get a lot of information from the various models similar to Tropical Tidbits, but can get a bit more detail from this one for certain things. Tropical Tidbits can also get really slow when a ton of people are looking at it during the peak run times, like currently with Florence threatening.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:58 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by 2coolforschool View Post
From what I’ve seen, there isn’t really a place in Texas that absolutely “needs” it, especially after last week. As always, it’s feast or famine with the rainfall.


San Angelo water supply is Twin Buttes reservoir and it went from 2.8% to 3.5% of capacity with last weeks rain. Still in serious NEED of it in most of West Texas. 4” of rain and very little runoff. Most creeks and rivers still show 0 CFS. Just puddles in the rivers when I was there this weekend. Ground just sucked up all of it.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:59 PM   #220
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Hopefully it goes a little farther North
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Old 09-11-2018, 03:02 PM   #221
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Thanks for the websites!
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Old 09-11-2018, 03:03 PM   #222
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we have only gotten a little over an inch in Lee County where i live in the last couple months. rain keeps missing us and grass is dead. Would love for another 3-4 inches plus to fall. The ponds have really taken a hit here and people are having to feed hay already.
going to be a long winter if we don't get some growth back
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Old 09-11-2018, 03:03 PM   #223
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I wouldn't worry about it. I flew outta Houston last year for a wedding in Colorado when it was still forecasted that Harvey would be a TS. Truck stayed at the parking spot, high and dry the whole time.
Lol, you were in the right parking garage. Those at the terminal were OK, the surrounding less expensive lots were hit and miss. I took 2 buddies over to retrieve their vehicles and it was up to the axles on both trucks. The Mercedes, Volvos and Porsches didn't fare well in those lots.
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Old 09-11-2018, 03:41 PM   #224
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This is a pretty cool site with enhanced color from the GOES-16 satellite showing the Gulf and East Coast.

Be forewarned, it's a huge image and takes a bit to load.
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Old 09-11-2018, 03:48 PM   #225
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Looks like it is trying to gets its act together and become better organized

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...b-animated.gif
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Old 09-11-2018, 03:50 PM   #226
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Wont sniff the gulf!
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:02 PM   #227
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Well great, another possible flood at my place. 43" in June of '15, 48" in April of '16, 53" in June of '16 and Harvey gave us 55"..........

Maybe I can talk my wife into moving to our place in Colorado?
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:05 PM   #228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1369 View Post
Don't know how accurate/reliable the CMC model is, but it has Issac passing through the Yucatan slot.

Attachment 924003

Link
Space acid rocks!
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:08 PM   #229
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Just not seeing where any models are bringing this to Houston at this point. Am I missing something?


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Old 09-11-2018, 04:10 PM   #230
ateague11
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Originally Posted by RJK70 View Post
Just not seeing where any models are bringing this to Houston at this point. Am I missing something?


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I dont see any at this time, however the east side of a land falling system on the Texas coast is the wet side of the storm
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:19 PM   #231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateague11 View Post
I dont see any at this time, however the east side of a land falling system on the Texas coast is the wet side of the storm


That’s true. Hopefully there is not a strong high pressure system keeping it from moving out of the area once it makes landfall like happened with Harvey. My home flooded in Harvey so even outside chances of a system in the area get my attention.


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Old 09-11-2018, 04:25 PM   #232
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Lots of great sites linked here but ^^^that one is slick!
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:35 PM   #233
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Have a scheduled dove hunt around Pearsall this weekend. Talked to the outfitter and he said there are tons of birds and that scattered showers should be no big deal and we should still have a good hunt. I would hate to pay for a hotel, plus hunting fee, only to be in the truck all evening. Hmmm.
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Old 09-11-2018, 04:42 PM   #234
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Originally Posted by 44mAG View Post
Have a scheduled dove hunt around Pearsall this weekend. Talked to the outfitter and he said there are tons of birds and that scattered showers should be no big deal and we should still have a good hunt. I would hate to pay for a hotel, plus hunting fee, only to be in the truck all evening. Hmmm.


You ain’t gonna melt.

Had one of my best ever bird hunts outside of Crystal City and it rained the entire hunt.




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Old 09-11-2018, 05:26 PM   #235
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Berger Update:

https://spacecityweather.com/tuesday...-rain-tropics/

Good evening. I wanted to throw up a quick post to get you the latest on the Gulf tropical system for later this week. Here are the key takeaways:

* Risk of a depression or weak to moderate tropical storm in the Gulf have grown since this morning.
* But based on all data we have today, the track of this system is likely to stay to the south of Houston, closer to the Corpus Christi area.
* Impacts will occur well away from the center of the system, and in Houston that will likely mean primarily some rainfall on Friday and Saturday.
* Locally heavy rain is possible along the coast and mainly to the south of Houston. Widespread flooding is *not* anticipated at this time.
* Whatever this disturbance does, it will likely keep moving inland over the weekend, away from Southeast Texas.
* Yes, this forecast can change, so stay tuned just in case, but this is what we've got to work with now.
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:32 PM   #236
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what are the chances of 95L making it to Just west of San Angelo and parking there for a few days?
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:42 PM   #237
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Originally Posted by 44mAG View Post
Have a scheduled dove hunt around Pearsall this weekend. Talked to the outfitter and he said there are tons of birds and that scattered showers should be no big deal and we should still have a good hunt. I would hate to pay for a hotel, plus hunting fee, only to be in the truck all evening. Hmmm.


If you have a lot of birds and good solid ground to hunt them on (ie not a plowed field. Of black gumbo.. or you have dog, I wouldn’t hesitate to hunt in the rain. Take a popup canopy and paint it tan or green. Walmart sells a 4x6 for $35. TBHers lsmith did this when we needed it for the sun in soTX. We killed 5 limits under it and near it.


Last edited by Smart; 09-11-2018 at 06:45 PM.
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Old 09-11-2018, 11:04 PM   #238
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Hopefully it won’t be too bad. Heading to the ranch in Falfurrias for opening weekend of dove hunting.


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Old 09-11-2018, 11:10 PM   #239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 44mAG View Post
Have a scheduled dove hunt around Pearsall this weekend. Talked to the outfitter and he said there are tons of birds and that scattered showers should be no big deal and we should still have a good hunt. I would hate to pay for a hotel, plus hunting fee, only to be in the truck all evening. Hmmm.


The only question is "how many can you kill if you don't go?"


The rain can mess it up for sure, but it's my opinion that some scattered rain will help you 50% of the time. Downpours are not much fun, but take a pop up shade hootus, small grill, and a full cooler and make the best of it, is generally the way to go.


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Old 09-12-2018, 12:47 AM   #240
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I’m in Rock Hill, SC tonight and the Hotel is packed with evacuees. Flying back tomorrow and hope we don’t have a Hurricane on the Texas Coast this weekend. This is a crazy tropical season.
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:22 AM   #241
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looks like 95l is fizzling out this morning?
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Old 09-12-2018, 05:55 AM   #242
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looks like 95l is fizzling out this morning?


Folks on the Khou forum seem to think that’s normal and expected. That was the talk last night anyway. Might not do much for a bit.


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Last edited by TexasBob; 09-12-2018 at 06:44 AM.
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Old 09-12-2018, 07:13 AM   #243
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Quote:
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Folks on the Khou forum seem to think that’s normal and expected. That was the talk last night anyway. Might not do much for a bit.


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Looks like the cone has tracked farther south than it was yesterday, away from Houston.




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Old 09-12-2018, 07:42 AM   #244
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https://spacecityweather.com/heavy-r...ats/#more-8493

Eric doesn't seem at all concerned about rain totals in the Houston area. You guys agree?
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Old 09-12-2018, 07:42 AM   #245
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RJK70 View Post
Looks like the cone has tracked farther south than it was yesterday, away from Houston.




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Old 09-12-2018, 07:48 AM   #246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
https://spacecityweather.com/heavy-r...ats/#more-8493

Eric doesn't seem at all concerned about rain totals in the Houston area. You guys agree?


I love the way every bit of this sounds. Except for the jog to the south once Florence gets inland. Praying for everyone’s safety there.


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Old 09-12-2018, 08:06 AM   #247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
https://spacecityweather.com/heavy-r...ats/#more-8493

Eric doesn't seem at all concerned about rain totals in the Houston area. You guys agree?
I myself put a lot of faith in Eric Berger.
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:19 AM   #248
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Looks like Issac is starting to project a north eastern turn when it enters the gulf.
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:30 AM   #249
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Following. I have a travel trailer in Port A that I may need to go grab.
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:38 AM   #250
xman59
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Hopefully it goes a little farther North
nope heck no! I am still homeless from Harvey,,, my construction is supposed to start next week,,, south and west can have all of it,, I had 10" this week already
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