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Old 09-10-2018, 05:18 PM   #151
160class
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Originally Posted by DamonJ View Post
So heading to my lease Just west of Tilden to top off feeders and shoot birds will most likely be a wash out this weekend?
Yep, we were gonna do the same in Catarina but probably wonít be able to, Iíll know more Thursday and Friday as I will be working down there those days
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Old 09-10-2018, 05:32 PM   #152
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Yes, as ccb pointed out, all eyes on 95L along the Texas coast. Early forecast thinking weak tropical storm coming ashore along the lower to middle Texas coast bringing a ton of rain with it.

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That means Houston on the wet end


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Old 09-10-2018, 05:50 PM   #153
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Tuned in!


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Old 09-10-2018, 06:01 PM   #154
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Well another weekend working at the lease looks to be screwed. Guess Iíll be working remotely on Wednesday.
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Old 09-10-2018, 06:08 PM   #155
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Well another weekend working at the lease looks to be screwed. Guess Iíll be working remotely on Wednesday.
I'd gladly give that up to get raid on our lease east of Laredo!! It's pretty dang dry there! I'm hoping that "thing" that they're talking about coming into the Gulf late this week hits the happy medium of little wind and lots of rain inland! ...don't need no wind tearing up stuff, but South Texas sure could use the moisture... one of those tank filling rains.
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Old 09-10-2018, 06:34 PM   #156
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Hopefully it makes landfall in Deep South Texas down near padre. That country needs the rain from a big depression/small TS in a bad way (hopefully depression). I also Hope the upper coast is spared, donít think they need anymore rain.
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Old 09-10-2018, 07:18 PM   #157
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Old 09-10-2018, 08:00 PM   #158
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going to wait until it has a name. still too far out to forecast.
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Old 09-10-2018, 08:26 PM   #159
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Chances keep going up at 60% of forming something now per abc but who knows with them
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:02 PM   #160
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So this friday/Saturday landfall on the 60% chance storm?
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:07 PM   #161
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I'd gladly give that up to get raid on our lease east of Laredo!! It's pretty dang dry there! I'm hoping that "thing" that they're talking about coming into the Gulf late this week hits the happy medium of little wind and lots of rain inland! ...don't need no wind tearing up stuff, but South Texas sure could use the moisture... one of those tank filling rains.
Has your place missed all this moisture this last week? I think we picked up close to 7 inches.

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Old 09-10-2018, 09:20 PM   #162
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Hopefully it makes landfall in Deep South Texas down near padre. That country needs the rain from a big depression/small TS in a bad way (hopefully depression). I also Hope the upper coast is spared, don’t think they need anymore rain.
One of the weather experts at the Houston Chronicle, Eric Berger, indicated on his Facebook page today that at present the track seems to have shifted further south. Time will tell though.

If it's not mentioned before y'all check out the Eric Berger: Space City Weather Facebook page. He's no hype, no bull, just straight facts. Outside of Johnny and CCBluewater you won't find a better source to get this kind of information.

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Has your place missed all this moisture this last week? I think we picked up close to 7 inches.

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It seems like it hasn't done anything but rain in Spring for a week straight.
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Old 09-10-2018, 09:47 PM   #163
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Berger is the best. He got me through Harvey.

In addition to the track farther south, he also mentioned that 95L should run into some decent wind shear in the Gulf that will limit its development into anything more that a TS.
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:07 PM   #164
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So heading to my lease Just west of Tilden to top off feeders and shoot birds will most likely be a wash out this weekend?



Not looking good for the south opener...


In to follow the reports
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:41 PM   #165
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Default Potential Tropical Development

Our place near Catarina in Webb County has gotten a pretty good soaking this last week. We needed it to make up for only 6 Ē rain since January of this year. Tanks are where near dry. Hopefully this fill them back up and gets us they the winter. Bucks are going to be eating green and not coming to corn very well until it gets cold.
Looks like South zone dove opener and first week of teal season will be a rainout.


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Old 09-10-2018, 11:03 PM   #166
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Not looking good for the south opener...


In to follow the reports
Not at all.. I may go even if I have to sit on the porch and watch it rain all weekend...
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Old 09-10-2018, 11:14 PM   #167
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Not at all.. I may go even if I have to sit on the porch and watch it rain all weekend...


Ya same here. We shall see. I was planning dove for Friday and teal on Saturday morning


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Old 09-10-2018, 11:41 PM   #168
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Not at all.. I may go even if I have to sit on the porch and watch it rain all weekend...



I've had two great weekends of bird killing since the Central opener and been out of town every weekend since July 28th. I'm think I'm gonna pass on driving 6 hours to watch it rain and stomp in the mud from my brother's back porch if that's what we get.. I'll see them at Thanksgiving.
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Old 09-11-2018, 02:32 AM   #169
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Has your place missed all this moisture this last week? I think we picked up close to 7 inches.
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Originally Posted by Etxbuckman View Post

It seems like it hasn't done anything but rain in Spring for a week straight.
I took a peak at my neighbor's rain gauge yesterday. Just a little over a inch here at my place in Robertson Co. Been missing all the rain. I need a good 3 day soaking and then some!!!
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Old 09-11-2018, 05:21 AM   #170
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I took a peak at my neighbor's rain gauge yesterday. Just a little over a inch here at my place in Robertson Co. Been missing all the rain. I need a good 3 day soaking and then some!!!
We got about 2 inches in Normangee this past weekend. Hope to get some more the next couple weeks. Grass is turning green and he acorns are blooming. Time to move deep into the woods.
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:59 AM   #171
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Couple of early guesses
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Old 09-11-2018, 07:23 AM   #172
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Bring the rain to west Texas!
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Old 09-11-2018, 07:45 AM   #173
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Bring the rain to west Texas!


Amen

I like that light green track above.
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:17 AM   #174
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Sept 13th is the 10 year anniversary of Ike landfall on Galveston. Go...way
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:32 AM   #175
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Sept 13th is the 10 year anniversary of Ike landfall on Galveston. Go...way
20 years ago today, Tropical Storm Frances made landfall and dumped a ton of rain in areas, especially Harris County.
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:35 AM   #176
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20 years ago today, Tropical Storm Frances made landfall and dumped a ton of rain in areas, especially Harris County.
Yep forgot about that one
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:35 AM   #177
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Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff Lindner with HCFCD regarding 95L:

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Tropical cyclone formation remains possible for the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system and have hurricane plans and kits in place.

There has been little change in organization of the tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea overnight. Sporadic deep convection continues to develop in an near what is most likely a mid level low pressure system. Thus far there have not been any surface observations to support any surface low pressure formation. Upper level winds remain fairly strong out of the WSW/W as the system is on the eastern side of a weakening upper level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. As this upper trough weakens and the tropical wave axis moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico upper level winds will become somewhat more favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone.

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models either maintain an open tropical wave or attempt to close off a surface low pressure system along the wave axis in the Thursday and Friday period as the feature moves NW toward the TX coast. It is unclear at this point if the system will be able to close off a surface low, but development chances increase as it nears the TX coast late this weekÖso things can and will likely change quickly on Thursday and Friday.

Regardless of actual development of a closed low pressure system the main impacts appear to be heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Wet and soggy grounds are already in place over much of coastal TX and additional rainfall is likely both today and Wednesday. Deep tropical moisture with the tropical feature will begin to arrive on the TX coast late Friday with bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds spreading along the TX coast Friday and into Saturday.

At the moment it is still too early to discuss specific impacts, but the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding late this week into this weekend along the entire TX coast is increasing. For now will leave tides, winds, and seas alone and await better trends in any center track and intensity of the feature. Even an open wave axis will likely produce 20-30kts across the NW Gulf waters. This could be a system where much of the adverse conditions will occur to the north and east of any actual surface center.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week and weekend is low and residents along the TX coast should closely monitor forecasts over the next few days for changes.
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:36 AM   #178
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Bring the rain to west Texas!

Hope yall get all of it. We are saturated!
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:38 AM   #179
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Sept 13th is the 10 year anniversary of Ike landfall on Galveston. Go...way


10 years... dang. But not long enough.

So I see all the convection north east if the low which to me slings it over Houston based on those model tracks. Would that be plausible? Even the space city weather guys didnít have much to say about rainfall for the weekend


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Old 09-11-2018, 08:38 AM   #180
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Has your place missed all this moisture this last week? I think we picked up close to 7 inches.

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We hadn't gotten anything on our place up until this week since a small shower back in early July... Rancher moved the cattle out to other parts of the ranch that has gotten some good rains... We're off Vaquillas Rd. South of Mirando City. Some parts of the ranch closer to Mirando City got good rain in July and August, but I guess we ain't payin' the preacher right or somethin'...

Haven't talked to the rancher this week but intend to... sure hope we got at least some rain... need a tank filler tho.
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:43 AM   #181
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From what I’ve seen, there isn’t really a place in Texas that absolutely “needs” it, especially after last week. As always, it’s feast or famine with the rainfall.
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:43 AM   #182
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We hadn't gotten anything on our place up until this week since a small shower back in early July... Rancher moved the cattle out to other parts of the ranch that has gotten some good rains... We're off Vaquillas Rd. South of Mirando City. Some parts of the ranch closer to Mirando City got good rain in July and August, but I guess we ain't payin' the preacher right or somethin'...

Haven't talked to the rancher this week but intend to... sure hope we got at least some rain... need a tank filler tho.
Gotcha, I bet you guys picked up some. Most of Webb county has been slammed the last 4 or 5 days.

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Old 09-11-2018, 08:56 AM   #183
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10 years... dang. But not long enough.

So I see all the convection north east if the low which to me slings it over Houston based on those model tracks. Would that be plausible? Even the space city weather guys didnít have much to say about rainfall for the weekend


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Yea, for the most part this will probably stay pretty sloppy, with most of the moisture displaced N & E of wherever the center comes ashore. Just my non-professional thoughts!

7 Day QPF chart is attached. They will update as these details start ironing out, but looks like some pretty healthy rain totals for South TX & The coastal areas. If it becomes clear that the areas N & E will have more rain, then you will start seeing the higher totals reflect that, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of confidence yet to what this does, per JL's update above.

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Old 09-11-2018, 09:05 AM   #184
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Yea, for the most part this will probably stay pretty sloppy, with most of the moisture displaced N & E of wherever the center comes ashore. Just my non-professional thoughts!

7 Day QPF chart is attached. They will update as these details start ironing out, but looks like some pretty healthy rain totals for South TX & The coastal areas. If it becomes clear that the areas N & E will have more rain, then you will start seeing the higher totals reflect that, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of confidence yet to what this does, per JL's update above.

Assuming this thing turns into a tropical storm, when are we looking at it making landfall?

I have a flight out of Houston to go elk hunting Friday afternoon and if it makes landfall around Houston I'm thinking about cancelling and just driving.
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:15 AM   #185
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I tell you what, this years rain and storm activity has put the capias gotcha on nearly every out of town trip Ive had planned.

We're supposed to dove hunt north of del rio in two weeks. RIght now it looks like this 91L will be gone but wheres issac gonna be?
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:17 AM   #186
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I tell you what, this years rain and storm activity has put the capias gotcha on nearly every out of town trip Ive had planned.

We're supposed to dove hunt north of del rio in two weeks. RIght now it looks like this 91L will be gone but wheres issac gonna be?
Not your year bubba:0

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Old 09-11-2018, 09:29 AM   #187
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I tell you what, this years rain and storm activity has put the capias gotcha on nearly every out of town trip Ive had planned.

We're supposed to dove hunt north of del rio in two weeks. RIght now it looks like this 91L will be gone but wheres issac gonna be?
Pretty selfish thinking on your part......those cattle need grass to eat. How else you gonna be able to pay $ 12lbs for ribeyes. How else is them po ranchers gonna make the payments on those F250 King Ranches?
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:37 AM   #188
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Not your year bubba:0

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Dont tell Charlie


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Pretty selfish thinking on your part......those cattle need grass to eat. How else you gonna be able to pay $ 12lbs for ribeyes. How else is them po ranchers gonna make the payments on those F250 King Ranches?
This dove hunt is around Pumpville. I dont think theres much grass out that way even with rain. And its someone elses lease and Im just taggin along and bringing my own steak
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:44 AM   #189
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Dont tell Charlie




This dove hunt is around Pumpville. I dont think theres much grass out that way even with rain. And its someone elses lease and Im just taggin along and bringing my own steak
Oh believe me, I got my eye on you suck'a!

It's gonna all be blow'd outta here by then... gotta think pos-tiv! Otherwise you gonna be about 5 for 5... We gonna start callin' you "Bad Penny"!
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:47 AM   #190
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Bringing my old shelter half to the A&M game this weekend I guess. Maybe my canoe as well
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:53 AM   #191
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Dont tell Charlie




This dove hunt is around Pumpville. I dont think theres much grass out that way even with rain. And its someone elses lease and Im just taggin along and bringing my own steak

My deer lease is north of Pumpville and I was headed out there Friday to spend the weekend killing pigs and sheep. I may stay home and go the following weekend. It turns into a muddy mess out there pretty quick with any amount of rain.
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:57 AM   #192
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Oh believe me, I got my eye on you suck'a!

It's gonna all be blow'd outta here by then... gotta think pos-tiv! Otherwise you gonna be about 5 for 5... We gonna start callin' you "Bad Penny"!
I have proof that I'm not bad luck! And tbh brethren as witness
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My deer lease is north of Pumpville and I was headed out there Friday to spend the weekend killing pigs and sheep. I may stay home and go the following weekend. It turns into a muddy mess out there pretty quick with any amount of rain.
That's what I'm afraid of. We quail hunted over in langtry a few years ago and I saw huge atv ruts from just a sprinkle

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Old 09-11-2018, 10:05 AM   #193
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I tell you what, this years rain and storm activity has put the capias gotcha on nearly every out of town trip Ive had planned.

We're supposed to dove hunt north of del rio in two weeks. RIght now it looks like this 91L will be gone but wheres issac gonna be?
If you could plan a goat hunt in West Texas this weekend that would great, thanks
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Old 09-11-2018, 10:08 AM   #194
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Old 09-11-2018, 11:18 AM   #195
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Dang it..................
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Old 09-11-2018, 11:48 AM   #196
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Weíve had a total of 1.4Ē as of this morning since June at our place in Weesatche, we still need rain.


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Old 09-11-2018, 11:54 AM   #197
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I wouldn't worry about it. I flew outta Houston last year for a wedding in Colorado when it was still forecasted that Harvey would be a TS. Truck stayed at the parking spot, high and dry the whole time.
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Originally Posted by johnpaul View Post
Assuming this thing turns into a tropical storm, when are we looking at it making landfall?

I have a flight out of Houston to go elk hunting Friday afternoon and if it makes landfall around Houston I'm thinking about cancelling and just driving.
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Old 09-11-2018, 11:59 AM   #198
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Just got a text from our ranch foreman and looks like we've had 7-9 inches on most parts of our ranch in the past few days!! We sure needed it!!
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Old 09-11-2018, 12:00 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by Merc View Post
I wouldn't worry about it. I flew outta Houston last year for a wedding in Colorado when it was still forecasted that Harvey would be a TS. Truck stayed at the parking spot, high and dry the whole time.

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The only reason I am considering driving is because I don't want to worry about flights being delayed or missing my connecting flight and in turn missing a half or even whole day of hunting. I am not worried about my car flooding or not getting back home.

There is a chance that Houston gets absolutely no rain but I need to make the decision 24 hours in advance in order to get refunded the money for my flight and rental car.
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Old 09-11-2018, 12:06 PM   #200
WItoTX
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Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Katy
Hunt In: Wisconsin, New Mexico, Colorado, Montana
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Originally Posted by johnpaul View Post
The only reason I am considering driving is because I don't want to worry about flights being delayed or missing my connecting flight and in turn missing a half or even whole day of hunting. I am not worried about my car flooding or not getting back home.

There is a chance that Houston gets absolutely no rain but I need to make the decision 24 hours in advance in order to get refunded the money for my flight and rental car.
Are you flying meat home (Assuming you get one)? What is your set up for that? I only ask because the only reason I drive is to get meat home, and to be 100% sure all my gear makes it to my destination.

Sorry OP, I know its off topic.
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