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Old 02-10-2021, 05:47 PM   #1
Ryan81
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Default Future Real Estate Markets

Curious to see what the opinions are around here on what the real estate markets in NE Texas will do over the next 6-18 months.

I may be looking to move or build in this time frame but I canít get adjusted to what current prices are. I currently own but would be upgrading from 1 acre and a small house to 20-30 acres with a moderate sized house.

I know interest rates are low but With Biden being elected, fuel prices creeping up, and lumber prices staying up, is anyone else thinking that the real estate markets will come down some?

Anyone thinking the opposite and that real estate will continue to boom as more people move out of the DFW metroplex and in from other states?


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Old 02-10-2021, 05:50 PM   #2
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There’s no guarantee either way but I am betting the influx of people into Texas will outweigh the damage done to the national economy. It’s pretty hard to find any period over the last 40 years where land didn’t appreciate at a healthy pace when looked at over at least 5 years.
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Old 02-10-2021, 05:53 PM   #3
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A housing shortage will maintain through the end of this year and probably most of 2022 keeping the market red hot. Inventory low, prices high and continuing to rise and as long as the Fed keep mortgage rates low the embers will continue to burn. The only thing that could slow this juggernaut is is price creeps too much higher too fast but even in that case we have 6-12 months of momentum prior to any change.

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Old 02-10-2021, 05:53 PM   #4
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Let me start off by saying, this is just my opinion. I have been in Real Estate for 15 plus years and I have never seen raw real estate go down in value or price. Structures and stuff like that can decrease in value over time which in turn can decrease overall value of property, but raw Real Estate will not.
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Old 02-10-2021, 05:56 PM   #5
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Raw Real Estate went down in the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
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Old 02-10-2021, 06:16 PM   #6
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It's BOOMING and no end in sight at the moment. I'm helping out my Land company I retired from in 2017 this weekend at a site about 20 miles west of Weatherford. Smaller acreage than you referenced, 2-5 acres, and they are booked solid...160 appointments for Saturday alone. My "retired company" has developed and sold out 5 land projects in the last 2 years alone and yep, BIG influx of out of state folks plus those fleeing the Metro areas. The sites have been around Decatur, Weatherford, Granbury and Brock. Don't fool yourself, buy now if you can and the old saying is true..."You can build a house but they ain't making more land."
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Old 02-10-2021, 06:22 PM   #7
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There have been 93 places sold since then beginning of the year in Gonzales county. People are paying outrageous prices. It's crazy.
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Old 02-10-2021, 06:28 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrandonA View Post
Raw Real Estate went down in the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
I agree, was in the middle of it. And I guess more accurately during a financial crisis, nuclear war, giant fireballs hitting the Earth and other like, all might have an effect on Real Estate value temporarily. However overall you will never buy today or tomorrow what you could of bought 10 years ago at the same price per acre.
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Old 02-10-2021, 06:30 PM   #9
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Yep. Bought a few years ago and the value has doubled. Don’t wait. Liberals are flocking to Texas. And it ain’t the poor ones.
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Old 02-10-2021, 06:41 PM   #10
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Hope it stays up so I can sell and move to Florida. Hopefully someone from out of state wanting a wedding venue
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Old 02-10-2021, 06:44 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kumathebear View Post
It's BOOMING and no end in sight at the moment. I'm helping out my Land company I retired from in 2017 this weekend at a site about 20 miles west of Weatherford. Smaller acreage than you referenced, 2-5 acres, and they are booked solid...160 appointments for Saturday alone. My "retired company" has developed and sold out 5 land projects in the last 2 years alone and yep, BIG influx of out of state folks plus those fleeing the Metro areas. The sites have been around Decatur, Weatherford, Granbury and Brock. Don't fool yourself, buy now if you can and the old saying is true..."You can build a house but they ain't making more land."

I drive right by some of the places in Weatherford on the way to my lease. They have for sure been booming.


Anyone currently building or is a GC? Curious to see what the average price/sq ft. cost of building a Barndominium and cost of a traditional home is?


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Old 02-10-2021, 06:52 PM   #12
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Cost of building materials is whats nuts. Bare land next to me went for $16,000 an acre for 24 acres. My fear is interest rates going up with inflation. Keep it together for another year or two !!!

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Old 02-10-2021, 06:55 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan81 View Post
I drive right by some of the places in Weatherford on the way to my lease. They have for sure been booming.


Anyone currently building or is a GC? Curious to see what the average price/sq ft. cost of building a Barndominium and cost of a traditional home is?


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They are offering a 1100 sq.ft Barndominium "Shell, not finished inside" but on a slab for $43K. Most of the developments have gone with traditional builds in my experience. Barndo's really vary in price just like traditional builds all dependent on the finish. I've never owned a Barndo, but like many, I've done a lot of research on them and just from TBH responses who have built them, most are really pleased. As usual, most of the 80 + "ranchettes" will sell out this weekend even with the cold weather. And no, not advertising at all, just initially responding to the OP on real estate in our neck of the woods.
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Old 02-10-2021, 06:58 PM   #14
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House prices in NE San Antonio are ridiculous but people keep paying it. Subdivision i live in is all full now within a year.
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Old 02-10-2021, 08:10 PM   #15
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Prices are headed higher in Texas with the influx of people moving here. I don’t expect it to slow down until the migration to Texas slows down and interest rates rise.
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Old 02-10-2021, 08:42 PM   #16
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I’m in the middle of a build right now. I was kind of on the fence myself. Build now while supplies are up but interest rates are crazy good or take the chance and wait for prices to go down but interest to go up. I figured I’ll be paying interest for the next 30 years so I should prob take advantage of it. That being said, I’ve got money from my last house sitting in the bank. I’m hoping for a downturn in the real estate market so I can jump on a couple rental properties!
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Old 02-10-2021, 08:45 PM   #17
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Iíve been in the business for almost 20 years. Prices can come down or stay flat and if interest rates go up youíll still end up paying more.


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Old 05-18-2022, 04:35 PM   #18
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Single ownership of property in today's world is becoming too expensive and burdensome.
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Old 05-18-2022, 04:44 PM   #19
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I hope land value stays high, we live between Round Top and La Grange and seriously looking at selling soon. Just trying to get our ducks all in a row. Lol
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Old 05-18-2022, 04:47 PM   #20
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This thread started over a year ago, and prices have gone up 15-25%. Rarely is it a benefit to wait when it comes to Real Estate.
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Old 05-18-2022, 04:50 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianL View Post
This thread started over a year ago, and prices have gone up 15-25%. Rarely is it a benefit to wait when it comes to Real Estate.
This is true.

But from right where we sit now it's a toss up. All depends on if the FED actually raises rates 2-3 more times to slow inflation. If they do then prices will fall. Maybe not below when this thread was started though.
If they don't raise inflation is here to stay and you'll wish you bought a year ago for sure.
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Old 05-18-2022, 05:37 PM   #22
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Quote:
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This is true.

But from right where we sit now it's a toss up. All depends on if the FED actually raises rates 2-3 more times to slow inflation. If they do then prices will fall. Maybe not below when this thread was started though.
If they don't raise inflation is here to stay and you'll wish you bought a year ago for sure.

Each time the rates go up a basket of marginal buyers are taken out of the market. Less buyers mean flat to dropping prices. I have divested myself of all real estate (last property is under contract) other than my home. I have made an absolute killing on each property so Iím happy to stuff that cash away for now.

Iíll be looking to pick up properties or equities again once the feds get through shaking the trees.


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Old 05-18-2022, 05:44 PM   #23
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My house went on the market last Friday in the Austin area. No interest so far. Maybe things are cooling off around central texas.

Travis county raised my appraised value by about 120% this year. Good thing my over 65 exemption kicks in.
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Old 05-18-2022, 05:46 PM   #24
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^dang I’ve heard of 20% to 75% but 120%.. wow!
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Old 05-18-2022, 05:49 PM   #25
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I own several properties that are paid for an ag exempt that will be my daughter's in 15 years or so. That's her retirement so she doesn't have to worry as she's an only child.

I don't see land prices going down much and for very long as unsustainable as it might seem. All cities are fighting for growth that they can't sustain.
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Old 05-18-2022, 05:55 PM   #26
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I bought 10 acres in Burnet county almost 3 years ago. I get offers in the mail to purchase the property about once a week.

Plan is to build out there once we retire.
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Old 05-18-2022, 05:58 PM   #27
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i get the same offers which are about 1/5 0f what it's worth. I guess they find a dumbass once in a while cause the postage has to kill them.
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Old 05-18-2022, 05:59 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slaunch View Post
^dang Iíve heard of 20% to 75% but 120%.. wow!
I crunched the numbers and was off. 442 to 905K so it was about 105% still crazy high increase.
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Old 05-18-2022, 06:04 PM   #29
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i get the same offers which are about 1/5 0f what it's worth. I guess they find a dumbass once in a while cause the postage has to kill them.
I get these all the time. They use the Tax office for parcels they want to buy. They also offer about 20% of todays market price. In the trash before I finish reading it.
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Old 05-18-2022, 07:05 PM   #30
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I just did some work for a guy who is a manager on the McCoys professional desk. He said that the larger window company's sent out an email to their largest distributors stating that window production is at an 8 to the 12-month backlog. Sign of the times, I guess.
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Old 05-18-2022, 07:21 PM   #31
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Rockport house +188% in 2 years
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Old 05-18-2022, 07:42 PM   #32
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Quote:
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I just did some work for a guy who is a manager on the McCoys professional desk. He said that the larger window company's sent out an email to their largest distributors stating that window production is at an 8 to the 12-month backlog. Sign of the times, I guess.
No, they just cut back back production to keep profit margins up and blame it on the economy and no workforce. If everyone would just sit tight and quit paying blackmail it would correct itself pretty quick.
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Old 05-18-2022, 08:05 PM   #33
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More work than they can keep up with is the issue. We have a major housing shortage and its simple supply and demand that is driving prices. Once supply catches up with demand prices will stabilize.
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Old 05-18-2022, 08:11 PM   #34
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I disagree, it's a perfect round robin of everyone selling and upgrading. Interest rates being so low for so long created this IMHO. I wish we only knew what the debt load was for the average person.
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Old 05-18-2022, 08:33 PM   #35
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Lumber market is falling off a cliff. Itís usually a good indicator of whatís to come in the housing market. Will be interesting to watch.
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Old 05-18-2022, 08:37 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cookiemonster1 View Post
More work than they can keep up with is the issue. We have a major housing shortage and its simple supply and demand that is driving prices. Once supply catches up with demand prices will stabilize.
when/if we sell our house we'll be looking to lease something in your area. Looks to be slim pickens though. I get mail weekly to buy my 10 acres in Burnet county though.
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Old 05-18-2022, 08:47 PM   #37
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At what price?
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Old 05-18-2022, 08:57 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRL View Post
Lumber market is falling off a cliff. Itís usually a good indicator of whatís to come in the housing market. Will be interesting to watch.
This is what Im watching.....if the housing market goes, it all goes.
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Old 05-18-2022, 08:58 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Paul View Post
Let me start off by saying, this is just my opinion. I have been in Real Estate for 15 plus years and I have never seen raw real estate go down in value or price. Structures and stuff like that can decrease in value over time which in turn can decrease overall value of property, but raw Real Estate will not.

You just havenít been it the business long enough if you havenít seen land prices drop in value. They said the same thing in the late 70ís/early 80ísÖthenÖcheck this graph and see what happened in the mid 80ís:


https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/r...#!/state/Texas
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Old 05-18-2022, 09:57 PM   #40
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At what price?
the prices vary. from 100k to 163K

I am just finishing up a 30x40 shop, cost me 45K. property has a well on it.

not looking to sell.
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Old 05-19-2022, 04:38 AM   #41
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I disagree, it's a perfect round robin of everyone selling and upgrading. Interest rates being so low for so long created this IMHO. I wish we only knew what the debt load was for the average person.
I'm not sure on how much upgrading is going on unless they're taking on more debt.

Ex: I have some land, paid for, that I was planning on building on. My thought was to keep the same amount of debt I have plus equity in my current house (2000 sqft + 30x60 shop) and upgrade. This would put me in the ballpark of 360K-380K to spend.

Take 50k to build an equal shop and I now have 310k-330k.

At $180sqft (low end) I could build 1830sqft

At $220sqft (upper end) I can build 1500sqft

This is without having to buy land. Then you can knock quite a bit off of that even still for dirt/septic/elec. Not much of an upgrade other than the land (55 acres vs 7) unless I'm missing something.



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Old 05-19-2022, 06:30 AM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRL View Post
Lumber market is falling off a cliff. Itís usually a good indicator of whatís to come in the housing market. Will be interesting to watch.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtp View Post
This is what Im watching.....if the housing market goes, it all goes.
Is there something specific you folks watch or just lumber futures?
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Old 05-19-2022, 06:44 AM   #43
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My house went on market Saturday, 3 showings Sunday and 3 on Monday..
Under contract Monday evening $$$ over asking price. As i was signing the offer, another offer came in at full-asking price, which was 10K under what my realtor recommended I should list due to Market Analysis. Comp's went up 30K in three months in my area. Didn't even put a sign up or lock box on door.
located between Copperas Cove and Lampasas area..
20 year old house, 1997 sq ft, 3 bedroom 2 bath on an acre..

Market isn't slowing. But believe current interest rates may be knocking out first time buyers..
Once you go above 250k value you have a limited pool of buyers in my area. And, people are selling in Austin, Georgetown, Round Rock and moving up to this area to escape high taxes and they're commuting to work or work remotely. And, they're leaving Killeen due to crime..

Last edited by rossn2; 05-19-2022 at 07:37 AM.
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Old 05-19-2022, 07:46 AM   #44
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tag
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Old 05-19-2022, 07:50 AM   #45
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Quote:
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Raw Real Estate went down in the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
This is the future. IMO
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Old 05-19-2022, 07:56 AM   #46
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I don't necessarily think the market is cooling but rather stabilizing. I've been looking to buy in the eastern Williamson county/ wester Milam county area only to put myself in the middle of where i work and where my kids live. Lot's of people took advantage of the boom, especially because of the Samsung plant in Taylor, and are cashing in. The properties i see listed that are having to do price reductions are the knock-down shacks that overpriced themselves. The good properties are still going fast and probably over asking.
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Old 05-19-2022, 08:04 AM   #47
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it's going to crash. there is no market, of any item that can survive when it's impossible for new buyers to enter that market.
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Old 05-19-2022, 09:12 AM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rossn2 View Post
My house went on market Saturday, 3 showings Sunday and 3 on Monday..
Under contract Monday evening $$$ over asking price. As i was signing the offer, another offer came in at full-asking price, which was 10K under what my realtor recommended I should list due to Market Analysis. Comp's went up 30K in three months in my area. Didn't even put a sign up or lock box on door.
located between Copperas Cove and Lampasas area..
20 year old house, 1997 sq ft, 3 bedroom 2 bath on an acre..

Market isn't slowing. But believe current interest rates may be knocking out first time buyers..
Once you go above 250k value you have a limited pool of buyers in my area. And, people are selling in Austin, Georgetown, Round Rock and moving up to this area to escape high taxes and they're commuting to work or work remotely. And, they're leaving Killeen due to crime..
Congratulations! Key to getting multiple offers or a quick sale is pricing it
correctly in this market.
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Old 05-19-2022, 09:23 AM   #49
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Real Estate is headed for a big correction. The FED is going to raise rates. Its very reasonable to see the FED rate at 5-6% minimum in the next year, year and a half. That will put mortgage rates in the 8-10% range if not higher. The days of cheap money are over at least for the next couple of yrs
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Old 05-19-2022, 09:37 AM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Paul View Post
Let me start off by saying, this is just my opinion. I have been in Real Estate for 15 plus years and I have never seen raw real estate go down in value or price. Structures and stuff like that can decrease in value over time which in turn can decrease overall value of property, but raw Real Estate will not.
I know that I am a Dinosaur but back in the 80's when I was President of Menard National Bank, I saw land sell for $400/acre that two years earlier sold for $800. This was when all the S&L's in Texas went under and nearly half the banks. Was not a fun time.
Unfortunately, it appears that Uncle Joe and the Dems have us on a "fast track" to get us into a deep recession. If that happens, I feel that we will see a downturn in values, first in home values and then in raw land. It is really very simple to see this happening, high interest rates and cost of living driven by high food and fuel prices will erode buying power. Less buyers, less demand, lower prices.
Adios,
Gary
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