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Old 10-06-2022, 10:10 PM   #451
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GE is doing bad this year as are multiple corporations . They just announced a 20% layoff in their wind generation division. Stock is at near 66. Seems like it might be getting time to consider if it gets into the mid 50s.

What are the GS thoughts on GE at mid to low 50s??
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Old 10-07-2022, 11:45 AM   #452
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GE is doing bad this year as are multiple corporations . They just announced a 20% layoff in their wind generation division. Stock is at near 66. Seems like it might be getting time to consider if it gets into the mid 50s.

What are the GS thoughts on GE at mid to low 50s??
I'm not a good stock picker! But there should be plenty of value in index funds sooner or later. Take a look as case Schiller PE charts.

I would sure run from any company that has too much debt! And dismiss their forecasts completely! This will be survival of the fittest for a while.
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Old 10-07-2022, 12:06 PM   #453
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I am staying the course Like I have always done. I trust my financial planner.

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Old 10-07-2022, 12:12 PM   #454
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Over the near future most my money is going into VOO
Other than that, I'm staying the course on my other investments.
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Old 10-07-2022, 12:14 PM   #455
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I am staying the course Like I have always done. I trust my financial planner.

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Thatís where I am.
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Old 10-11-2022, 12:43 PM   #456
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Bank of England just began bond buying again. They haven't even gotten inflation under control or started QT, they are already back to QE. Just one of many signs how bad things are and what may be coming for to the US once QT really begins here. Remember Bond yields and rates go up when prices fall and the US govt has not even begun selling bonds yet.
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Old 10-11-2022, 12:48 PM   #457
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Bank of England just began bond buying again. They haven't even gotten inflation under control or started QT, they are already back to QE. Just one of many signs how bad things are and what may be coming for to the US once QT really begins here. Remember Bond yields and rates go up when prices fall and the US govt has not even begun selling bonds yet.
I'd rather have a depression than more QE. Last thing we need is 20% inflation (or 40% in real life).
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Old 10-14-2022, 11:50 AM   #458
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Quite a volatile day yesterday. Can't make sense of a rally when core inflation went up. Still waiting to buy in. Bank earnings coming out now.
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Old 10-14-2022, 11:54 AM   #459
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I am staying the course Like I have always done. I trust my financial planner.

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Down too much to make a move now.
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Old 10-14-2022, 07:46 PM   #460
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I am staying the course Like I have always done. I trust my financial planner.

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Good luck.

I learned the hard way to not trust them. As I posted 10 or 11 months ago when the FED raises rates stocks go down. FED flat out said they would raise all year long. Baffles me FA's couldn't see this coming. Maybe they did but they make no money if they put all clients in cash...Just a slight conflict of interest.

And I was told bonds would still be a good investment as people would go to bonds if stocks go down all year. Luckily I flat out told my FA to sell most bond funds before they tanked also.

IMO another 15-20% lower for the S&P before it hits a possible bottom. But at this point nothing is a sure thing with crap hitting the fan all around the globe.
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Old 10-20-2022, 09:20 AM   #461
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Everyone's situation is different brother. I will and continue to cost average invest weekly. When it gets dangerous, timing the markets.



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Good luck.

I learned the hard way to not trust them. As I posted 10 or 11 months ago when the FED raises rates stocks go down. FED flat out said they would raise all year long. Baffles me FA's couldn't see this coming. Maybe they did but they make no money if they put all clients in cash...Just a slight conflict of interest.

And I was told bonds would still be a good investment as people would go to bonds if stocks go down all year. Luckily I flat out told my FA to sell most bond funds before they tanked also.

IMO another 15-20% lower for the S&P before it hits a possible bottom. But at this point nothing is a sure thing with crap hitting the fan all around the globe.
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Old 10-20-2022, 09:48 AM   #462
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Cost averaging now is a good idea. I even have my 20 and 23 year old kids doing that. Great time for people that young to start.

But in zero way was a year ago a good time to start with markets at all time highs and the FED telling us they would raise rates all year. I really do not understand why people can't grasp that.
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Old 10-20-2022, 09:53 AM   #463
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100% I'm 38 funding 2- 529s, 401k, IRA and mutual funds weekly all while paying triple principle on my home. Finding this as an opportunity to set us up.



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Cost averaging now is a good idea. I even have my 20 and 23 year old kids doing that. Great time for people that young to start.

But in zero way was a year ago a good time to start with markets at all time highs and the FED telling us they would raise rates all year. I really do not understand why people can't grasp that.
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Old 10-20-2022, 10:02 AM   #464
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Turned my wifes 401k into a self directed roth ira and put it into Kingdom choise's crypto ira. Waiting on the last dip to totally buy in and ride the wave up this next year.
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Old 10-20-2022, 10:26 AM   #465
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Good luck.

I learned the hard way to not trust them. As I posted 10 or 11 months ago when the FED raises rates stocks go down. FED flat out said they would raise all year long. Baffles me FA's couldn't see this coming. Maybe they did but they make no money if they put all clients in cash...Just a slight conflict of interest.

And I was told bonds would still be a good investment as people would go to bonds if stocks go down all year. Luckily I flat out told my FA to sell most bond funds before they tanked also.

IMO another 15-20% lower for the S&P before it hits a possible bottom. But at this point nothing is a sure thing with crap hitting the fan all around the globe.
Do you think we are going to see a V recovery, like we did when covid crashed the market?

Personally I think we are near bottom, but we are going to move sideways to slightly up for years. May take 10 years before we see all time highs again.
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Old 10-20-2022, 10:29 AM   #466
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If the Republicans take both the house and the senate we will see a good jump. Sustainable, probably not.
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Old 10-25-2022, 02:56 PM   #467
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If the Republicans take both the house and the senate we will see a good jump. Sustainable, probably not.
I doubt it but let's hope so.
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Old 10-25-2022, 03:39 PM   #468
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Do you think we are going to see a V recovery, like we did when covid crashed the market?

Personally I think we are near bottom, but we are going to move sideways to slightly up for years. May take 10 years before we see all time highs again.
My guess is no "V" recovery. If that happens it could ignite inflation again(or more) FED goal is to squash inflation so stocks need to come down.
SPY under 300 before this is over. I don't think it will take 10 years because there's too much cash floating around. But very well could take 4 or 5 years.

If earning are not bad enough to tank stocks FED will continue to raise rates IMO. They must push rates to the breaking point.

SPY 390 and I'll start buying Jun 2023 SPY 360 puts. Simply because if markets rally much over 400 I think we're all screwed.
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Old 10-27-2022, 04:39 PM   #469
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Looking like a bloodbath tomorrow. AMZN down over 20% afterhours on earnings.
AAPL is all over the place from -5 to -11 points.

But my wild guess is this may be a temp bottom after things tank tomorrow (and maybe Monday) Good flush and then we can start a bear market bounce right smack in the face of horrible press, earnings, etc.


BTW - SPY got so close to 390... So I only bought a few starter puts. Grrr.... But some are already up 300%
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Old 10-27-2022, 09:15 PM   #470
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Between them and meta just a couple hundred billion of market cap wiped out. Meta trading at 9x earnings....hmm. I think the first budget to get cut in the corporate world is marketing so expecting ads sales for these types to get worse.
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Old 10-28-2022, 11:40 AM   #471
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Looking like a bloodbath tomorrow. AMZN down over 20% afterhours on earnings.
AAPL is all over the place from -5 to -11 points.

But my wild guess is this may be a temp bottom after things tank tomorrow (and maybe Monday) Good flush and then we can start a bear market bounce right smack in the face of horrible press, earnings, etc.


BTW - SPY got so close to 390... So I only bought a few starter puts. Grrr.... But some are already up 300%

What happened to the expected blood bath today? When I looked yesterday evening the nasdaq futures was down about 4%.


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Old 10-28-2022, 11:45 AM   #472
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What happened to the expected blood bath today? When I looked yesterday evening the nasdaq futures was down about 4%.


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We live in opposite world now.

In the 90's and even 00's if one of the top 5 tech companies was down 10% it made markets tank.

We've had AMZN down 20%, GOOGL down 10%, META down 25%+ plus a few others... Yet markets don't go down.

And AAPL rallies on even earning I assume because they were not bad? But they refuse to give guidance which, in the past would make a tech stock tank LOL

I'm not sure if there will ever be a breaking point where people stop investing because markets make zero sense. I guess just too many people buying through 401ks and the like that don't even realize how stupid it all is.

Wild times
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Old 10-31-2022, 04:56 PM   #473
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New euro Inflation numbers in per wsj.

Euro zone 10.7%
Italy 12.8%
Germany 11.6%

Fed meeting this week.
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Old 10-31-2022, 06:16 PM   #474
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Some technical traders are thinking stocks hit bottom a while back. Saying future inflation is baked in. Not sure I believe that but markets are so crazy there's no telling.

I do know that in past bear markets caused by rising rates there are long periods of time where markets seem to be recovering before being smacked back down.
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Old 11-02-2022, 07:55 PM   #475
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Markets have stabilized and are creeping back up and I moved back in today.
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Old 11-02-2022, 08:03 PM   #476
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I guess I need your watchlist
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Old 11-02-2022, 08:16 PM   #477
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Markets have stabilized and are creeping back up and I moved back in today.

I agree. I think they will rise between now and the end of the year. How much remains to be seen.


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Old 11-04-2022, 02:22 PM   #478
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Markets have stabilized and are creeping back up and I moved back in today.
Powell probably had the jobs report in advance of his comments Wednesday. I have zero confidence that the market bottom is upon us. He will likely take the fed rate to 5%. Seems there are many that still doubt his plans. Inflation won't subside until unemployment rises probably to 5 or 6%.
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Old 11-04-2022, 03:30 PM   #479
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Powell probably had the jobs report in advance of his comments Wednesday. I have zero confidence that the market bottom is upon us. He will likely take the fed rate to 5%. Seems there are many that still doubt his plans. Inflation won't subside until unemployment rises probably to 5 or 6%.
So far he has done exactly what he said he would do. Market seems to think this is still 2018 where they can bluff the fed into changing course.

Yield curves are screaming recession is imminent. Jobs still holding strong though. That and we know there are rate hikes still on the table.

I'm still putting money to work, but keeping a lot on the sidelines. Have to imagine that there will be a big flight to bonds that will further depress equity valuations before things start to firm up.

CPI report next week will be interesting.
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Old 11-10-2022, 05:42 PM   #480
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So far he has done exactly what he said he would do. Market seems to think this is still 2018 where they can bluff the fed into changing course.

Yield curves are screaming recession is imminent. Jobs still holding strong though. That and we know there are rate hikes still on the table.

I'm still putting money to work, but keeping a lot on the sidelines. Have to imagine that there will be a big flight to bonds that will further depress equity valuations before things start to firm up.

CPI report next week will be interesting.
And boom...CPI comes in and markets jump. I was up 4.8% across all my accounts today. Absolutely crazy. One of my accounts is back at its all time high.
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Old 11-10-2022, 07:18 PM   #481
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This was expected IMO. Inflation looks to be cooling, stocks rise, and then it creeps back up. I bet the FED still raises 75 and then they still raise again early 2023.

Earning will suck really bad.. Enough to get stocks down to new lows. Once people give up then bottom will be put in.

But I'm still in 50% stocks because down this low and with everything backwards in todays world I can't risk missing out if FED goes stupid and lowers rates in spite of inflation.
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Old 01-24-2023, 02:35 PM   #482
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Seems like the tech sector is taking care of most of the employment issues lately. Will be a few months before their severance runs out. Tesla cutting car prices by 20%.

Earning 4.5% on cash equivalents right now which is nice. Fed may go to 25 bps increase at next meeting. Seems like things are better but still not confident in buying back in right now.
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Old 01-24-2023, 02:44 PM   #483
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Seems like the tech sector is taking care of most of the employment issues lately. Will be a few months before their severance runs out. Tesla cutting car prices by 20%.

Earning 4.5% on cash equivalents right now which is nice. Fed may go to 25 bps increase at next meeting. Seems like things are better but still not confident in buying back in right now.
I'm not sure things are that much better, eggs are $10?

Anyone have a feel on YETI for a longish holding?
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Old 01-24-2023, 02:45 PM   #484
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If you look at the past high inflation times, there's a point where inflation appears to be under control and markets rally... Then soon after earnings come crashing down and markets tank. And some of the times inflation that appeared to be under control roared back.

Question is how far can they run the markets up this time? Have to convince most people the bottom is in and get them back in the markets. Then they can flip it and drop markets until people give up and sell. And that will be the true bottom 2-6 months from now is my WAG.
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Old 01-24-2023, 02:50 PM   #485
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If you look at the past high inflation times, there's a point where inflation appears to be under control and markets rally... Then soon after earnings come crashing down and markets tank. And some of the times inflation that appeared to be under control roared back.

Question is how far can they run the markets up this time? Have to convince most people the bottom is in and get them back in the markets. Then they can flip it and drop markets until people give up and sell. And that will be the true bottom 2-6 months from now is my WAG.
Agree with this.
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