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Old 12-25-2018, 09:15 AM   #1
RiverRat1
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Default Markets tanking - Trumps fault?

So the entire stock market rise since Trump took office was because of Obama's policies. Now the markets tanking are 100% Trumps fault?

I swear people have become so stupid it can drive a person crazy.

Just wait until inflation sets in. We all should know it's coming. It should have hit 8-12 years ago. Interest rates should have never been below 1% much less at zero for years....All the while the FED was printing trillions. Gee what could go wrong with that?

But don't worry whatever bad happens will be Trumps fault. Forbid he support raising interest rates so savers stop getting the entire shaft.
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Old 12-25-2018, 09:36 AM   #2
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Yup Obama set the next president up to fail.............
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:16 AM   #3
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Live by the sword, die by the sword. Since Trump took full credit for the stock market doing well, then should he not take full credit for when it does poorly?

The real truth of the matter is that people don't understand that Presidents' don't have absolute control over the economy. They don't get to push a button that makes it do well or poorly. The fed (which is independent of any branch of the gov't) has an affect on the market by raising or lowering interest rates. Policies like taxes, subsidies, and regulations can affect the market, but it only does so much.

The real reason the market has blown up since Trump came in is because the tax cuts (expected and realized) gave companies the impetus to buy back insane amounts of stock. It didn't hurt that the economy was doing well, but stock market is not a perfect reflection of the economy. Consider the economy grew by 2.3% in 2017, and the stock market went up by ~20% (S&P 500). It's begging for a correction.

Lastly, we've been in a recovery for almost a decade. Historically speaking (looking at BLS data), the economy and market will have to cool off some point soon (or maybe right now), and then there will likely be a downturn.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:25 AM   #4
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Trump blames the lower numbers on the FED.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:34 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
Forbid he support raising interest rates so savers stop getting the entire shaft.
Wait, he supports raising interest rates?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...31267559755776

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...58100149309441

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...87981020729344
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:37 AM   #6
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Yup...if you are gonna thump your chest & let the world know your policies created the entire market bliss??

He's his own worse enemy most the time
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Old 12-25-2018, 07:08 PM   #7
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Yup...if you are gonna thump your chest & let the world know your policies created the entire market bliss??

He's his own worse enemy most the time
Word!
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Old 12-25-2018, 09:40 PM   #8
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If anyone cant see or admit that this is a orchestrated effort to take Trump down then your just not being honest OR you hate the man so bad that you refuse to see what is really taking place.. Barry has been taking credit for the great economy since Trump took office even as recent as a few weeks ago when he was speaking at the University of Houston.... All of the sudden he is silent..

Don't worry Barry the feds have your back on this one.. They will make Trump look real bad for you..
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Old 12-25-2018, 09:42 PM   #9
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Yup Obama set the next president up to fail.............
Oh and he had plenty of help and still does... The deep state is alive and well..
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:44 PM   #10
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If anyone cant see or admit that this is a orchestrated effort to take Trump down then your just not being honest OR you hate the man so bad that you refuse to see what is really taking place.
So you're saying there's a cabal that was able to cause a huge downturn in a 30 trillion dollar market? And do it in secret? And for the sole purpose that they didn't like the President? And they waited until right after the midterms? You know, the LEAST damaging time for anything negative to happen during a Presidency?

Color me skeptical.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:33 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by sir shovelhands View Post
So you're saying there's a cabal that was able to cause a huge downturn in a 30 trillion dollar market? And do it in secret? And for the sole purpose that they didn't like the President? And they waited until right after the midterms? You know, the LEAST damaging time for anything negative to happen during a Presidency?

Color me skeptical.
I'm not "saying" anything.. Its actually happening.. How many times did the FED raise rates during Barry's 8 years in office? Coincidence? I don't think so..
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:04 AM   #12
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Yea. It's his fault. There's no stability in his leadership at this moment. Where can anyone have faith in the US and our future at this moment.

People can chest thump all they want about the cabinet attrition we've seen but, "people dont quit bad jobs they quit bad bosses."

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Old 12-26-2018, 01:35 AM   #13
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Yea. It's his fault. There's no stability in his leadership at this moment. Where can anyone have faith in the US and our future at this moment.

People can chest thump all they want about the cabinet attrition we've seen but, "people dont quit bad jobs they quit bad bosses."

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So people don't quit bad jobs?? Hmmm. Ok.
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:01 AM   #14
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Not intending to single you out but you made two points that I wanted to ask about. Hope you don't take offence.

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Originally Posted by ttaxidermy View Post
Oh and he had plenty of help and still does... The deep state is alive and well..
I don't do much in the way of politics so I did some looking and have found nothing firm about a deep state. Perhaps you can explain that or even better if you have some links I could read I'd appreciate it.

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So people don't quit bad jobs?? Hmmm. Ok.
To this one I can answer personally. I'm currently in a job that infuriates me on a weekly basis. One of the reasons I've not quit is because my supervisor and superintendent back me up. I'd have left if it wasn't for them.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Richard
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:35 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by ttaxidermy View Post
I'm not "saying" anything.. Its actually happening.. How many times did the FED raise rates during Barry's 8 years in office? Coincidence? I don't think so..
True, it's not a coincidence. It's same the fiscal policy the Fed has followed for over a century. But I'll explain if it helps.

When the economy is doing poorly, the Fed reduces interest rates. This makes money more easily accessible in the form of cheaper loans to consumers and corporations. The Fed believes this will allow consumers to buy more crap/invest, and encourage corporations to invest and grow.

When the economy is on fire, the fed increases rates to prevent (it hopes) overspending by consumers and encourage savings, and to prevent companies from over-leveraging themselves. It's how the Fed tries to keep a bubble from forming and reduce inflation.

But you don't have to believe me, just look at historical interest rates and trend them with GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and see for yourself.


As for the rates during Obama's years:
From 2008 to the early 2010s, the US experienced the worst recession since the great depression. So the Fed, following it's century long policy, dropped rates down to 0.25% from 2009 to 2015. Starting in Dec 2015, they began raising them, reaching 0.75% by the end of 2016.

Since Trump came into office, the economy has been doing quite well, so the rates have gone from 0.75% to 2.5% in two years.

If you think that's a high interest rate, it's actually pretty low; consider that from 1981 to 2001, rates never dropped below 3%, hell Reagan never had rates below 6%.

If you think the rates are going up abnormally fast, you'd be wrong: consider Bush's Presidency, rates spiked from 1.25% to 4.25% in less than 1.5 years (between July 2004 and Dec 2005). If you look at the data, you'll find quite a few instances of much faster increases in rates than we're seeing right now.

I can see how you might come to the conclusion that this is all a terrible conspiracy if you're only looking back at the last 10 years. Look at a bigger slice of time and you'll see the Fed's interest rate policy is relatively predictable.

But don't assume I endorse their policies (or even the Fed's existence), I'm just pointing out the trend.

Last edited by sir shovelhands; 12-26-2018 at 02:39 AM.
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Old 12-26-2018, 07:17 AM   #16
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2.75% is huge compared to 0.25%

And "the worst recession" since the great depression is a load of BS. Maybe 2% of people turned off their cable TV during those "bad" times.

His point is..Name one President who had rates lower than 1.5%? Much less one that had rates that low for 8 freaking years.

But you're right about how they use rates during good and bad times.
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Old 12-26-2018, 07:54 AM   #17
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Pretty easy to understand why the Fed lowers interest rates during a democrat presidency. The democrats policies are the worst for stifling business and growth so the Fed lowers the rates to help keep the whole economy from tanking. Once the democrat is gone and regulations eased and executive orders canceled the stifling of business is relieved. Raising interest rates at this point helps keep inflation in check and allow the stock market to correct itself back to it's real value. Not many people are in the red right now and their portfolio is still way above what they actually invested. The market will need to lose another 10% I'm guessing before it levels out again. Don't panic just yet.
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Old 12-26-2018, 08:11 AM   #18
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There’s ups and downs it’s natural, and yes the president can rattle the markets with there policy.
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Old 12-26-2018, 11:29 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
2.75% is huge compared to 0.25%
There's no doubt rates were at their lowest, for the longest during Obama's term. But compared to the average since the inception of the Fed, 2.75% is still really low.
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And "the worst recession" since the great depression is a load of BS.
To prove my point, I'll list 8 year periods where recessions start (including the great depression), and you can see why I called it the worst since the depression. FYI I'm using real dollars (inflation adjusted) to calculate growth rates.


-Depression, 1930 - 1937 (data for 1929 is hard to find): average growth rate 1.09%, average unemployment rate 18.26%.

-Post war (not really a recession, but a major contraction nonetheless), 1945 - 1952: average growth rate 1.325%, average unemployment rate 3.8%.

-Recession, 1970 - 1977, average growth rate 2.96%, average unemployment rate 6.475%

-Recession, 1980 - 1987: average growth rate 2.925%, average unemployment rate 7.675%.

-Recession 1990 - 1997: average growth rate 2.875%, average unemployment rate 6.0875%.

-Recession, 2007 - 2014:The average growth rate 1.25%, average unemployment rate 7.525%.


You'll notice no recession since the great depression has had such low average growth over an 8 year span (most had more than twice as much growth) as seen in 2007-2014, and the highest average unemployment rate during another recession was only .1% higher than 2007-2014.

Based upon this, I think the description of "worst recession since the depression" is appropriate.

Now there were several 3 year periods where recessions start that had worse averages than any 3 year period during the 2007-2014 recession, but these were followed by swift and strong recoveries, which is why I decided to use 8 year periods.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverRat1 View Post
2.75% is huge compared to 0.25%
His point is..Name one President who had rates lower than 1.5%? Much less one that had rates that low for 8 freaking years.
Let's not move those goal posts. His point was that there was a conspiracy by the Fed to raise rates at a rapid pace in order to stifle the economy and make Trump look bad, which I disagreed with. I do not disagree that the rates during Obama's tenure were the lowest, and held for an extensive period of time, nor did I ever claim they were otherwise.

Last edited by sir shovelhands; 12-26-2018 at 11:32 AM.
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Old 12-26-2018, 11:49 AM   #20
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1982 was the worst ever for me. I was an independent HVAC contractor and many of the jobs I had sold got canceled mostly due to the developers and builders running out of $$$ and not being able to get interim money. Left me with no cash flow to pay my people so I tried going it alone for a while. Finally had to go to work for somebody else in early 1983. Them was some hard times for lots of people in the construction bidnez.
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:10 PM   #21
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Yes, a large part of this is from his recent executive decessions. Some of which sure look stupid right now.
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:20 PM   #22
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Yes, a large part of this is from his recent executive decessions. Some of which sure look stupid right now.
Smart people don't think they are that stupid.
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:27 PM   #23
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Smart people don't think they are that stupid.
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Old 12-26-2018, 12:32 PM   #24
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Sir Shovelhands, you have likely observed that some people's heads here are so far up trump's butt, they are unable/unwilling to see nor read or research the real facts. Facts don't matter, and it's sad how society has been so dummied down. Out...
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:38 PM   #25
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Sir Shovelhands, you have likely observed that some people's heads here are so far up trump's butt, they are unable/unwilling to see nor read or research the real facts. Facts don't matter, and it's sad how society has been so dummied down. Out...
Remember.......

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Old 12-26-2018, 03:20 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by sir shovelhands View Post



Let's not move those goal posts. His point was that there was a conspiracy by the Fed to raise rates at a rapid pace in order to stifle the economy and make Trump look bad, which I disagreed with. I do not disagree that the rates during Obama's tenure were the lowest, and held for an extensive period of time, nor did I ever claim they were otherwise.
I was just saying what I think he was trying to say. The FEDs kept rates super (and can't stress SUPER enough) low for Obamas entire 8 years. Once Trump gets in they raise rates when most think rates should not be moving up.

None of us know if it's a conspiracy or not. But I can see why people would think it is...and why people refuse to think it's possible to be one also.
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Old 12-26-2018, 04:03 PM   #27
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Had he wanted liberal and low rates, he should have left Yellen in there.
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Old 12-26-2018, 04:07 PM   #28
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And the reason he is screaming at the Fed about rates is he doesn't want people talking about the shutdown, tariffs, and trade wars.
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Old 12-26-2018, 05:00 PM   #29
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Old 12-26-2018, 05:00 PM   #30
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But I'm sure this is because of Barry..



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Old 12-26-2018, 05:13 PM   #31
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That's a knee slapper
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Old 12-26-2018, 05:15 PM   #32
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Up today big
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Old 12-26-2018, 05:18 PM   #33
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I guess the Fed dropped rates so market could start to recover
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Old 12-26-2018, 06:17 PM   #34
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Heck of a day. Set your AA and stay the path..
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Old 12-26-2018, 06:58 PM   #35
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Biggest one day run in history today.
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Old 12-26-2018, 07:08 PM   #36
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Y’all remember 2008/2009 it was swinging wildly like it has been lately. Hopefully it’s just a correction. Unfortunately the trump kin is his own worst enemy allot of times.
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Old 12-26-2018, 10:07 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by sir shovelhands View Post
Live by the sword, die by the sword. Since Trump took full credit for the stock market doing well, then should he not take full credit for when it does poorly?

The real truth of the matter is that people don't understand that Presidents' don't have absolute control over the economy. They don't get to push a button that makes it do well or poorly. The fed (which is independent of any branch of the gov't) has an affect on the market by raising or lowering interest rates. Policies like taxes, subsidies, and regulations can affect the market, but it only does so much.

The real reason the market has blown up since Trump came in is because the tax cuts (expected and realized) gave companies the impetus to buy back insane amounts of stock. It didn't hurt that the economy was doing well, but stock market is not a perfect reflection of the economy. Consider the economy grew by 2.3% in 2017, and the stock market went up by ~20% (S&P 500). It's begging for a correction.

Lastly, we've been in a recovery for almost a decade. Historically speaking (looking at BLS data), the economy and market will have to cool off some point soon (or maybe right now), and then there will likely be a downturn.
This is pretty spot on
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Old 12-27-2018, 08:03 AM   #38
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Retail sales have hit record highs for the last quarter for most of the big companies. Retail doesn't do that unless the economy is super strong where people have extra cash to spend. This report is what more than likely led to the surge yesterday. I still expect some more correction yet to come. Don't panic. It ain't over by a long shot. Lots of investors were taking big profits the last 3 weeks and yesterday they were buying back in cheap. MAGA!
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Old 12-27-2018, 05:36 PM   #39
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This is what Chuck Butler said in his daily Pfenning:

Quote:
.. the Fed is hell bent and whiskey bound to hike rates, and Fed Chairman Powell, basically said that, when he commented that he would be hiking rates more in 2019, and… this is the part that most pundits and economists forget about… He said that the Fed would be continuing to reduce their balance sheet by $50 Billion a month… Well, if that’s so… then that would be equal to $600 billion in 2019. That equates to 3 extra rate hikes on top of the two announced in his statement.

If that doesn’t bring down the house of cards economy here in the U.S. I’ll be a monkey’s uncle! ....
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Old 12-30-2018, 09:28 AM   #40
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And the reason he is screaming at the Fed about rates is he doesn't want people talking about the shutdown, tariffs, and trade wars.
In case you hate Trump so much you lose sleep at night.... Try to relax your brain a minute and think.. Government shutdowns mean nearly nothing. We had several of them before Trump. It's how politicians operate.

Tariffs and trade wars. What about them? You think America should always take the shaft? Do you not think we should negotiate the best terms for US?

Please explain
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Old 12-30-2018, 02:27 PM   #41
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.. Government shutdowns mean nearly nothing. We had several of them before Trump. It's how politicians operate.


Please explain
If the govt is a business and should be run like one, how many businesses shut down and only operate with "essential staff only" because of financial reasons?

Does trump run his personal companies like this?

Of the Top 10 countries in the world, how many have these govt shut downs and how many do they have every 10 year period?

Please explain.
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Old 12-30-2018, 05:51 PM   #42
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Markets started tanking when Dems won over the House even thought the do not have it until January! Feds are screwing this up also!
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Old 12-30-2018, 07:01 PM   #43
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Markets started tanking when Dems won over the House even thought the do not have it until January! Feds are screwing this up also!
Exactly
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Old 12-30-2018, 07:39 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by texansfan View Post
If the govt is a business and should be run like one, how many businesses shut down and only operate with "essential staff only" because of financial reasons?

Does trump run his personal companies like this?

Of the Top 10 countries in the world, how many have these govt shut downs and how many do they have every 10 year period?

Please explain.
the gov. isn't shut down because of financial reasons, it's shut down because of political differences.
how many companies lay off employees only to rehire them in a few months with all of their back pay; you know.. like a paid vacation at our expense.

apples and oranges.

and who cares what the rest of the world does??
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Old 12-31-2018, 03:54 AM   #45
Jon B
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Guys I am a Trump supporter. I do wish he would keep his mouth and twitter account shut . He looks weak when he plays to the critics. Let them think what they want and do the job you were elected to do.
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Old 12-31-2018, 08:20 AM   #46
muzzlebrake
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Originally Posted by Mudslinger View Post
Markets started tanking when Dems won over the House even thought the do not have it until January! Feds are screwing this up also!
Please don't confuse the liberals with this logic. It makes them cry.
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Old 12-31-2018, 12:18 PM   #47
RiverRat1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texansfan View Post
If the govt is a business and should be run like one, how many businesses shut down and only operate with "essential staff only" because of financial reasons?

Does trump run his personal companies like this?

Of the Top 10 countries in the world, how many have these govt shut downs and how many do they have every 10 year period?

Please explain.
I can't explain your rambling.

Trump has to work with how our government works..period. It's not his fault it's a broke system and he has to play by the broke systems rules.
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Old 12-31-2018, 03:06 PM   #48
ttaxidermy
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Please don't confuse the liberals with this logic. It makes them cry.






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Old 12-31-2018, 05:54 PM   #49
stickerpatch59
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spot on!!
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Old 01-02-2019, 09:28 AM   #50
kck
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Guys I am a Trump supporter. I do wish he would keep his mouth and twitter account shut . He looks weak when he plays to the critics. Let them think what they want and do the job you were elected to do.
This. Not much ****** a liberal off more than being completely ignored.
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