ERCOT Power Grid Update.... Level 3 Emergency Alert

[Texasniper]

Anybody here work for ERCOT? If so what is the forecast load for the Texas Grid in the next 24 hours? Latest information I am finding says Texas is still at Level 3 Emergency status...

Feb 02 2011 05:58:39 CST At 05:43, ERCOT declared Level 3 of the Energy Emergency Alert (EEA). Emergency Notice Active


Looks like peak load on the grid at 0700 was at 52537.61 MW. No updates have been release since 0700. Very curious to see what 0800 and 0900 will look like since everybody is getting to work and school. Hopefully the rolling blackouts will help the numbers. In my mind I can't see how it will get any better with heaters now running in homes as well as business and schools now!

[Old Goat1]

Don't work for Ercot but use to work in the Utility industry,
Here is a load congestion flow projection for 2.2.11 2400.

http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/actual_loads_of_weather_zones

[Shane]

We had several brief outages here yesterday. They're saying today we'll have rolling blackouts. Gotta love it.

[Texasniper]

Goat what I find strange is that they have not updated the loads since 0700 hours. I am real curious to see what the load figures will look like from then till now. We are having rolling blackouts here in CS every hour at 15 min intervals.

[DeadeyeDeb]

Maybe they don't have any power to run their computers!!!!!

[Texasniper]

Well I guess anything is possible DEB but I seriously doubt it. If ERCOT does not have power at their offices where they monitor the State grid then Texas is in big big trouble. I am certain they have backup systems in place should they actually loose power from their main distribution feeder line.

[Txnrog]

Would suspect they're a little more focused on managing the load than communicating at this point. Since they are manipulating the load with the rolling blackouts, forecast doesn't matter that much. I would be amazed if their dispatch orders don't have every spinning reserve & functional peaker online right now, unless there's a jam on some lines.

[rtread]

Looks like peak load on the grid at 0700 was at 52537.61 MW. No updates have been release since 0700. Very curious to see what 0800 and 0900 will look like since everybody is getting to work and school.

I don't or didn't work for ERCOT but I had a career in power plant ops. and worked with ERCOT. On a weekday, the peak loads during cold weather are the early morning (0600-0900) hours and evening hours (1700-2000).
With the weather like it is, people are at work now but their thermostats at home are working overtime. When they get home in the evening and turn their ovens, TVs, computers, whatever.....the load demand skyrockets. The problem we have right now is very similar to '89 with a huge area in the bitterly cold weather for an extended period of time. Energy conservation at home is crucial.

[Blue Tick]

Explain to me how the use of heaters in winter, what winter we do have is any worse on the grid than everyone in Texas running AC's when it's hot?

[rtread]

Explain to me how the use of heaters in winter, what winter we do have is any worse on the grid than everyone in Texas running AC's when it's hot?

The situation in the hottest part of the summer is very similar....it gets dicey. The peak loads get larger every year....the power companies have to keep up with the demand. You can't store it so you have to have the available generation to produce it when needed. Right now, we don't have enough. If you can't keep up with demand, you get in a low frequency condition. There are serious limits with low frequency.

[Old Goat1]

Goat what I find strange is that they have not updated the loads since 0700 hours. I am real curious to see what the load figures will look like from then till now. We are having rolling blackouts here in CS every hour at 15 min intervals.

Yup even rural Brazos county. What will even be more funny is the rate under nodal for spinning reserve. I won't be able to see the operational report till tomorrow.

[Oneway]

Outages in Paris Today, no school, but Maxey is rolling.............

[Old Goat1]

Well I guess anything is possible DEB but I seriously doubt it. If ERCOT does not have power at their offices where they monitor the State grid then Texas is in big big trouble. I am certain they have backup systems in place should they actually loose power from their main distribution feeder line.

Ercot Taylor is fully redundantly backed up on power and equipment, they also have a fully functional alternate dispatch center in Austin. Ercot isn't down.

[Scrambler]

I have been without for 5 hours now!

[rtread]

I have been without for 5 hours now!

I'd call CPS and let them know. That's too long for rolling outages.