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Old 05-06-2021, 11:17 PM   #1
justletmein
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Default Vehicle speculation (truck prices)

I didn't wanna hijack the other thread. I was planning to drive my 2016 Ram 6.7 into the ground but with the market the way it is now I'm considering selling it. I work from home so no commute and wife has a truck so towing the boat is no issue and we've got a spare car. Wondering if anyone can speculate when the dealers will get more vehicles on the lot and when/if prices will go back to a more reasonable level. I'm over 100k miles already so it's not bad timing to refresh. I just don't wanna have to overpay because Elk season hits and I need a truck. I'm thinking though we're looking ar 2022 if it ever gets back to normal.

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Old 05-06-2021, 11:40 PM   #2
Leaverrite
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Great topic, in same boat. No idea on timing, but I posted my ‘18 Yukon on Craigslist and my phone about exploded with offers. I’m still holding out and about to sell for 4000 over blue book/givemethevin offer. Best offers were directly from dealer buyers, I assume they are skipping the auction middleman?
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Old 05-07-2021, 01:46 AM   #3
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Same here, KBB says I can get 15k over what I paid selling Private Party on my truck. May just buy a beater for now and buy once the supply catches up and prices get normal if ever.
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Old 05-07-2021, 05:24 AM   #4
WItoTX
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First, 100k on that truck, it's barely broke in. I got 172k on my Ford, and wouldn't hesitate to drive it elk hunting this fall (If we weren't going to MT this year).

BUT, I did just sell my Charger Hellcat for $7,500 more than I paid for it a year ago. If I had gone private sale, I was looking at $10k over what I paid. Probably will be the only time in my life I sell a car for more than I paid. (The only reason I didn't go private was because I track my cars, and I didn't need to get a call a month, or year from now that something broke due to being tracked).

I honestly don't think that suppliers will ever "catch up". I am betting these prices are the new normal.
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Old 05-07-2021, 06:15 AM   #5
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Two things....

Dealers don't have inventory

You're gonna over pay for a used truck

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Old 05-07-2021, 06:27 AM   #6
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I was thinking about doing the same thing. Kbb says my trade is $10k less then what we paid three years ago brand new. But, as mentioned, youre going to pay a premium for what you buy so I believe im going to keep what I have just for that reason. Maybe in another year or two my truck will still be up and there with cheaper options available. If so, ill trade out then.


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Old 05-07-2021, 07:43 AM   #7
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Man, I’m in the same boat. It is extremely tempting not to sell mine right now. KBB says I could get 10k more than I paid for it 18 months ago on trade in, and that didn’t include all the extras on it. I know I could get more than that private party. I could get by for a little while with no truck if I had to. I guess if I do it I’m waging on the fact that the new truck market is gonna come down when all these trucks waiting on chips hit the market
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Old 05-07-2021, 07:45 AM   #8
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Just remember like houses. You can make big money selling, but the same goes on the other end when buying!!!!

Stick to your plan of driving it until the wheels fall off
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Old 05-07-2021, 07:57 AM   #9
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All manufactures that use Chips in their electronics are going to feel this. The chips used the electronics are on GLOBAL shortage. Inventory is what it is now and it will be mid 2022 before the supply catches back up with the demand.
Cars are where we see it now.
Playstations, Xbox, TV's are all going to be next
I have my tin foil hat thoughts but Gold, Platinum and other metals are all needed to produce these plus resin. if you stop the flow of raw materials finished goods will also stop
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:11 AM   #10
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It really is ridiculous right now. I wanted to buy a new truck and the salesman point blank said this one is 5k over sticker price. I politely declined and drove off in my 16 Chevy. Still a great truck. I have also had my trolling motor in the shop for about a year now. Used twice and the motherboard fried. Brand new. Still waiting.
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:20 AM   #11
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No way I would buy right now...i am hearing last quarter things should be back normal(er)
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:21 AM   #12
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It’s not going to change anytime soon. We buy our vehicles through enterprise fleet. They are the second largest vehicle buyer in the US. They sent out an email last week that if you want to guarantee having a new vehicle by the end of the year you need to order it in the next week or two. Said 2022 vehicles will not be available until summer 2022.

I know this because I am due for a new vehicle. But we can’t find hat we are looking for. And if we do it’s too much. With the volume Enterprise buys, the dealerships normally come down off price about $5k for them but right now with how low inventory is they won’t come off any so it is tough.
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:25 AM   #13
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I thought about trading my truck in about a year ago to get and f250 and they offered me $24k about everywhere. I an now doing a deal and they are giving me 37.5k. Its crazy.
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:30 AM   #14
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Yeah, I'm in the market for a new truck. What I'm worried about is the prices never coming down, or worse continuing to go up.....

So it's like, should I just bite the bullet and find the best deal I can find and buy one now, or hold out another year.

If I would have bought a year ago, I could have got the Tundra's I'm looking at now for over $10,000-$15000 less then what they're going for now. And they're selling them fast.

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Old 05-07-2021, 08:45 AM   #15
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I was trying to work a deal on a new F250 at the end of last month but the salesman wouldn't/ couldn't come off MSRP. He said the owner of the dealership told them not to sale anything for less than MSRP and to hold out until they got the price they were asking. End of the month didn't matter, he wasn't budging. He said in some cases folks are paying 2k to 3k over MSRP. That ain't me.

He also said that if I could hold off for another 4 or 5 months (don't need the truck, just wanted it) that they should be able to come off 4k to 6k off MSRP. Semi back to normal. I'll check back in Aug or Sept and see where they are.
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:49 AM   #16
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I read an article the other day that said this will be the new normal. The dealerships finally figured out that if they keep the inventory low and the demand high, they actually make more money with less overhead. They have a higher margin on the vehicle sold and less expenses of inventory.
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:53 AM   #17
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This is the best time EVER to upgrade to a new truck if you're not buying a truck that usually sells for 25% below MSRP.

I'm getting great $$ for my Tacoma and am buying a new one for 6% off sticker which is what they were selling for before all this mess. Used can't go much higher or they'll cost more than new. It's insane.
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Old 05-07-2021, 08:54 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by powderburner View Post
All manufactures that use Chips in their electronics are going to feel this. The chips used the electronics are on GLOBAL shortage. Inventory is what it is now and it will be mid 2022 before the supply catches back up with the demand.
Cars are where we see it now.
Playstations, Xbox, TV's are all going to be next
I have my tin foil hat thoughts but Gold, Platinum and other metals are all needed to produce these plus resin. if you stop the flow of raw materials finished goods will also stop
I heard yesterday that Ford has had to keep their manufacturing lines at 50% because of this. Keep in mind that, because of stupid union contracts, they have to pay workers to do nothing on top of this. Prices will remain high for the foreseeable future.
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Old 05-07-2021, 09:05 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by USMC View Post

He also said that if I could hold off for another 4 or 5 months (don't need the truck, just wanted it) that they should be able to come off 4k to 6k off MSRP. Semi back to normal. I'll check back in Aug or Sept and see where they are.
See that's what I'm looking at. If I could sell private sale now and sit without maybe I can pick something up at less than insane prices in Aug/Sept for the fall. Just wondering if I should gamble on it or if it's a really unsafe bet.
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:00 AM   #20
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Based on what Iím hearing from manufacturers, new vehicle supply will be constrained until mid 2022. It may be months after that when we see prices / discounts start to come back to normal.

Unless I absolutely had to, I wouldnít purchase a new vehicle until the end of 2022 or early 2023. Used inventory prices will remain elevated until then as well.
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:03 AM   #21
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Ain't no truck out there................
Worth, what their asking................
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:08 AM   #22
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I was going to buy an f250 last year but instead decided to put about 500 in a savings account(yes I know that won't pay it).

Still driving my 06 tundra with 180k miles.

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Old 05-07-2021, 10:09 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sailor View Post
Ain't no truck out there................
Worth, what their asking................
That's how I feel. I'm too stubborn to pay it. I'll keep mine running forever, even if it means dropping an engine in it.

Only Problem is I've got I boy coming up on driving age.....so eventually he'll need transportation. Sucks too, because I've been waiting along time to upgrade to a new truck, and now is around about the time I was going to do it. Talk about bad timing. Good thing we fixed the house up before the lumbar, and everything else went through the roof.

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Old 05-07-2021, 10:30 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sailor View Post
Ain't no truck out there................
Worth, what their asking................
AMen!

BUt if you don't have a brand new F250 to drive in the city you wont be cool
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:35 AM   #25
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One of my co-workers just paid 84k on his F-250. Dealer charged him 12k for the lift and wheel/tire combo. I just shook my head knowing that he doesn't tow anything.
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:38 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by andre3k View Post
One of my co-workers just paid 84k on his F-250. Dealer charged him 12k for the lift and wheel/tire combo. I just shook my head knowing that he doesn't tow anything.
GOSH THIS IS GREAT!!!! I laugh so hard

The typical city american life. Pay what I can't afford, stretch out my payment to 6-8 years, throw it on plastic, get big tires and a lift, and drive all my miles on pavement

And likely doesn't have a pot to **** in!
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:52 AM   #27
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I work in the electronic distribution industry. Right now they are talking about things improving Q4 or Q1 of 2022. Unless there is a correction it will be next year. The semiconductor side can not produce enough chips for global demand.
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Old 05-07-2021, 10:55 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by captainsling View Post
I read an article the other day that said this will be the new normal. The dealerships finally figured out that if they keep the inventory low and the demand high, they actually make more money with less overhead. They have a higher margin on the vehicle sold and less expenses of inventory.
I don't think the dealerships have anything to do with this. They WANT the inventory, they just can't get the allocation from the OEMs right now with the shortages and other issues. Margin compression has been the norm for a while, but at the end of the day, they'd rather have cars to sell than a bunch of demand they can't handle.
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Old 05-07-2021, 01:30 PM   #29
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So it's sounding like I may be better off holding on to the truck until after the fall hunting season and then assess the market situation again.

Man I have a '96 4x4 that was destined to go down to fish camp and die and now I'm wondering if I could cash out big on that maybe I should list it for some ridiculous price and see if a buyer pops up lol...
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Old 05-07-2021, 01:35 PM   #30
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My truck 18 years old with 185k miles on a gas engine. It’s a v-10 but whatever. Crew cab, leather, decked out in 2003 specs, 4x4 and I paid cash. I have a company truck so I don’t drive it much. Admittedly I get the itch many times a year but I just throw that payment into my budget and it dosent make sense. I want a new one so bad but it’s just insane to buy right now.
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Old 05-07-2021, 02:38 PM   #31
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I’m kicking it around, I have a 2016 F350 SRW 6.7 King Ranch with only 59k miles on it! Right now it’s valued at more than what I paid for it! It’s black on Brown and I’m kicking it around because I recently moved and I travel down 3 miles of red gravel road ( it can’t stay clean and that eats me up) ! I’m thinking about putting it on Craigslist! I don’t want another King Ranch but instead a Lariat and I can find those in lighter colors ! The Prices are highly elevated but I have gotten call backs from dealers talking about a close to even trade for a Lariat although it may be a 250 with a shorter box!Go figure....

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Old 05-07-2021, 02:45 PM   #32
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Man I guess I just don’t get the current market.

There’s used vehicles almost or the same price as new ones. Been helping someone look for a Trail Boss and used with 20k-30k miles is dang near or exactly the same price.

Insane
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Old 05-07-2021, 02:56 PM   #33
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I talked with 3 salesmen during lunch today. They said almost verbatim what has been posted already. They don't have inventory(new or used), when/if they get it...it is gone or already spoken for, can't/won't budge on price, and they say it may be this time next year before things straighten out. I am thinking it will be longer. Hang on to what you have or sell for more than you paid.
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Old 05-07-2021, 03:21 PM   #34
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The only way you come out ahead today in selling a used vehicle is if you don't have to replace it.

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Old 05-07-2021, 03:39 PM   #35
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Just looked up the value of my 2016 f250 with 83k miles.
It’s within 5k of what I paid for it 5 years ago.
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Old 05-07-2021, 03:54 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jessBsemple View Post
I talked with 3 salesmen during lunch today. They said almost verbatim what has been posted already. They don't have inventory(new or used), when/if they get it...it is gone or already spoken for, can't/won't budge on price, and they say it may be this time next year before things straighten out. I am thinking it will be longer. Hang on to what you have or sell for more than you paid.
Done producing 21 fords and the salesman I talked to today said the 22ís wonít be out until august of next year! They might as well skip the 22ís and go ahead with the 23ís!
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Old 05-07-2021, 04:03 PM   #37
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Quote:
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Just looked up the value of my 2016 f250 with 83k miles.
Itís within 5k of what I paid for it 5 years ago.


Then you have to buy something to replace itÖ Thatís where youíll ending up paying the difference.

My wife asked me yesterday why I wouldnít trade my truck now since I can get top dollar. Itís because I donít want to pay too dollar on the replacement.


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Old 05-07-2021, 04:48 PM   #38
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I don't think the dealerships have anything to do with this. They WANT the inventory, they just can't get the allocation from the OEMs right now with the shortages and other issues. Margin compression has been the norm for a while, but at the end of the day, they'd rather have cars to sell than a bunch of demand they can't handle.
They are making more margin per truck. They donít need more inventory when people will pay sticker. More money for the dealerships. They are already making higher profits. Look at the stock prices and read up on why they are so high.
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Old 05-07-2021, 06:33 PM   #39
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They are making more margin per truck. They donít need more inventory when people will pay sticker. More money for the dealerships. They are already making higher profits. Look at the stock prices and read up on why they are so high.
No doubt they are adapting to the current situation, but it is not what the majority of dealers want. That well dries up quick especially when allocation from the OEMs is as bad as it is, and less vehicle sales (even with slightly better margins) impacts a lot of their other income streams outside of just how much they made on one truck deal.
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Old 05-07-2021, 06:37 PM   #40
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Everyone excited to get more than you paid for your truck, remember the inflation of new prices.

I was excited when I saw my 2015 Ram 2500 about $2000 higher kbb than I paid new. Problem is the comparable 2021 is $15k more. As mentioned above the only way to take advantage of these prices if you don’t have to replace what you trade in.
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Old 05-08-2021, 05:54 PM   #41
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Then you have to buy something to replace it… That’s where you’ll ending up paying the difference.



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Nope...
I already have an extra vehicle just sitting at the house. I wouldn’t have replace till I get ready.
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Old 05-10-2021, 11:43 AM   #42
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https://www.whas11.com/article/money...5-f9cd7058c13b
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Old 05-10-2021, 12:13 PM   #43
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From what I was told by someone that is deeply connected in the industry, it will take 26 weeks from when they started back up making the wafers. Covid shut them down for some time. It’s sort of a gestational period of sorts. It takes 26 weeks to start production. Once production of the wafers are underway, there is a buildup of backlog that will need to be filled. Like someone else posted, vehicles will not be the only thing effected. We are only seeing the beginning of the cycle.
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Old 05-10-2021, 12:24 PM   #44
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I have a 2014 F350 Lariat that I am probably going to sell. Was going to keep it for the kiddo but she has no interest in driving. Not sure what to ask but Kelly Blue book says trade in is $27K
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Old 05-10-2021, 01:19 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Ace View Post
From what I was told by someone that is deeply connected in the industry, it will take 26 weeks from when they started back up making the wafers. Covid shut them down for some time. Itís sort of a gestational period of sorts. It takes 26 weeks to start production. Once production of the wafers are underway, there is a buildup of backlog that will need to be filled. Like someone else posted, vehicles will not be the only thing effected. We are only seeing the beginning of the cycle.
Man this leads me to believe that once those chips start hitting the market there's gonna be a sharp rise in availability and resulting sharp drop in prices.
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Old 05-10-2021, 01:30 PM   #46
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Then you have to buy something to replace itÖ Thatís where youíll ending up paying the difference.

My wife asked me yesterday why I wouldnít trade my truck now since I can get top dollar. Itís because I donít want to pay too dollar on the replacement.


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Its mind blowing how people don't realize this!!!

+5 - 5 equals a wash
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Old 05-10-2021, 03:35 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by gingib View Post
AMen!

BUt if you don't have a brand new F250 to drive in the city you wont be cool
They don't come any cooler, than this............
And the 350TBI, runs, like a new one.......
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Old 05-10-2021, 05:42 PM   #48
kumathebear
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One of my son's had to take his truck in to a Ram dealer in Abilene for repairs this morning, radiator leaking. It's a 2019, 4x4 loaded he bought used less than a year ago. They offered him $8k more than he paid for it in Lubbock? He's considering trading in but the new inventories are really low as most know these days. Crazy times!!
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Old 05-10-2021, 06:07 PM   #49
TreyRo
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It's been mentioned but...

Car dealers aren't your friend. You are taking it in the shorts one way or another. If you have an over supply of used vehicles you won't miss. Then by all means... Cash in now...

If you are trying to upgrade... I promise they aren't doing you any favors.
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Old 05-10-2021, 08:41 PM   #50
ctom87
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So you guys are saying this is accurate? I paid $27,500 Jan 3, 2017...

It's just crazy to think I bought a used truck with 7,500 miles on it and nearly 5 years later the value has gone up 20%
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Last edited by ctom87; 05-10-2021 at 08:47 PM.
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