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Old 05-05-2021, 10:47 AM   #1
Gclyde28
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Its coming. Just nuts.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:11 AM   #2
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I'm supposed to start building our new house later this year. Praying it starts coming down by winter, I don't see how people can afford to build with prices getting to 160 a sq. ft.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:13 AM   #3
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I'm on the luxury residential side of things. I just got a lumber pack quote back that was $30 / sq ft just for the lumber.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:13 AM   #4
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Wife had 100 sheets of 3/4" plywood stolen from a job site last week. They got it delivered early, which they've never done, to lock in pricing.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:18 AM   #5
TX Outlaw
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3/4 plywood $75 already here
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:20 AM   #6
TheHammer
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I paid $65 a sheet for 3/4” plywood a week ago.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:22 AM   #7
Gclyde28
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I bet 7/16" zip is going to be north of $80 here shortly as well.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:24 AM   #8
Eastwood
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Lumber futures are bumping around 1,600 per thousand ft. right now.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:31 AM   #9
El Paisano
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I just talked with my forester last week. Timber prices have been dropping for last 3 months, and look to go to rock bottom if we have a dry summer on top of the freeze stress...lots of trees will die.
Log yards are full and some not accepting timber through May.
He said that the increased prices are not going to the landowners or the loggers. He thinks the mills and wholesalers are pocketing the profits.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:35 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El Paisano View Post
I just talked with my forester last week. Timber prices have been dropping for last 3 months, and look to go to rock bottom if we have a dry summer on top of the freeze stress...lots of trees will die.
Log yards are full and some not accepting timber through May.
He said that the increased prices are not going to the landowners or the loggers. He thinks the mills and wholesalers are pocketing the profits.
And I hope there is a special place in He** for them folks!

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Old 05-05-2021, 11:41 AM   #11
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Another good reason I am going ICF and cement pillars. What is a good alternative to wood for my 30x40 2nd floor patio? 3 floor beach house.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:50 AM   #12
Slick8
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I glanced at 2x4's in Lowes yesterday, $8 and change...
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:54 AM   #13
Hoggslayer
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Quote:
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Wife had 100 sheets of 3/4" plywood stolen from a job site last week. They got it delivered early, which they've never done, to lock in pricing.
They unloaded a half truckload of stolen copper to make room for the plywood.
Plywood was worth more.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:01 PM   #14
CSanders
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclyde28 View Post
I'm on the luxury residential side of things. I just got a lumber pack quote back that was $30 / sq ft just for the lumber.
I don’t doubt it one bit. Only thing helping me out is my dad is my builder. My brother is getting ready to break ground on his house and the lumber package was 86k as of yesterday for 2350 ish sq. ft.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:05 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Hoggslayer View Post
They unloaded a half truckload of stolen copper to make room for the plywood.
Plywood was worth more.
Ha. I was in the AC game for a few years. Know all too well about copper theft.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:06 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Gclyde28 View Post
I'm on the luxury residential side of things. I just got a lumber pack quote back that was $30 / sq ft just for the lumber.
For reference, what was it when prices were "normal"?
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:17 PM   #17
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I paid $65 a sheet for 3/4” plywood a week ago.

Wonder what will happen late summer if a hurricane is bearing down and there is a run on plywood to cover windows
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:18 PM   #18
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Stop buying....good grief
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:19 PM   #19
Hoggslayer
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Wonder what will happen late summer if a hurricane is bearing down and there is a run on plywood to cover windows
Probably cheaper to use tin nowadays to cover the windows.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:20 PM   #20
gingib
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Hate to be buying/building a house now or a new vehicle!

Outrageous

Some people will be upside down on new home builds in these conditions
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:35 PM   #21
bowaddict40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by El Paisano View Post
I just talked with my forester last week. Timber prices have been dropping for last 3 months, and look to go to rock bottom if we have a dry summer on top of the freeze stress...lots of trees will die.
Log yards are full and some not accepting timber through May.
He said that the increased prices are not going to the landowners or the loggers. He thinks the mills and wholesalers are pocketing the profits.
I bet part of that is transportation. I know our containers have gone up like $3000 just because of transporting it.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:39 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by MacDaddy67 View Post
Stop buying....good grief
We're selling standard 7/16" 4x8 OSB @ $45 right now and literally can't get/keep enough. If you can find a truckload on the open market, it sells @ premium of $400-$600 over Random Lengths. I heard yesterday that a large chain lumber yard bought multiple trucks of 7/16" OSB Radiant-Barrier decking @ $2000/M ($64/sheet). That's crazy....
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:44 PM   #23
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I feel like we have been in the twilight zone since last year. I never thought I'd see the price of things get to where they are now... and so rapidly.
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:58 PM   #24
Kong
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I have 3 stacks in the shop, maybe I should auction it off lol I bought it last year for a build that never happened.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:00 PM   #25
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:00 PM   #26
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I'll bet prices will never come back down. The people that sell it will think "if they paid that much for X amount of months why bring the prices down".
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:04 PM   #27
AgHntr10
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My question is will it ever come back down or is this just signs of inflation and going to be the new normal?
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:05 PM   #28
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As long as people continue to purchase at these high prices, there will be no decrease. Free market economy at work.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:10 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by riverbowman View Post
For reference, what was it when prices were "normal"?
Wife built our house in 2018/2019 at that time $9.00 per sf was the normal price.

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Old 05-05-2021, 01:31 PM   #30
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This was a reciept from a small project I did at the barn in Aug. of 2019. Crazy
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:33 PM   #31
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Prices will come down when the interest rates go up and people stop building.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:35 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by riverbowman View Post
For reference, what was it when prices were "normal"?
Granted we don't build houses that are economically driven in any way shape or form but we've been as low as $11 / sq ft for a lumber pack. I would say more typical for us would be $13-$14. I would guess production homes at the lumber low's from 15ish months ago would have been down around $5 / sq ft.
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Old 05-05-2021, 01:53 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by 7sdad View Post
Prices will come down when the interest rates go up and people stop building.
I don't think so. Historically you are right BUT we are dealing with hyper inflation in every sector **** near. My guess is people are going to keep buying because they need safe places to park large sums of cash to protect themselves from the diminishing value of the dollar. Even with rising rates, where will people want to park their cash? The stock market is very volatile and the bears have been screaming "correction coming" from the rooftops.

The housing crash of 2008 means that we are already low on inventory when measuring the 2010- 2020 decade and the amount of houses built. I think they could raise rates a full 2% right now and it wouldn't do a **** thing.

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Old 05-05-2021, 02:06 PM   #34
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In the middle of building a bow blind that was supposed to be from lumber. Got as far as the floor gonna wait to see if prices start to decrease. If not I’ll just finish it out with metal.
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Old 05-05-2021, 02:28 PM   #35
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[quote=BlackoutRam2500;15603780]I don't think so. Historically you are right BUT we are dealing with hyper inflation in every sector **** near. My guess is people are going to keep buying because they need safe places to park large sums of cash to protect themselves from the diminishing value of the dollar. Even with rising rates, where will people want to park their cash? The stock market is very volatile and the bears have been screaming "correction coming" from the rooftops.

The housing crash of 2008 means that we are already low on inventory when measuring the 2010- 2020 decade and the amount of houses built. I think they could raise rates a full 2% right now and it wouldn't do a **** thing.

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Inflation does appear to be present, definitely agree but seems reversible if America’s supply chains can catch up..

Stock market has seen more volatility but investing is the only way to beat inflation.

‘08 happened due to bad loans and builders just building away saying “the people will come and buy”, we have the opposite situation right now with way more buyers than available properties for sale and builders are trying to catch up.

The “stock market will see a down turn” crowd sure missed out on a lot of money in 2011-2020. Each year, practically, was a new record high. If you didn’t invest due to this, you lost. That decade forged a lot of millionaires.

I agree with you on rising rates being slow to stop this train we have but I think it might tap the breaks at least a bit and pose a reality check to those willing to listen.

Just my thoughts.


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Old 05-05-2021, 02:39 PM   #36
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Price went up again today- I work at an OSB manufacturing plant. We have gone past stupidly high prices to insanely high prices.
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Old 05-05-2021, 02:42 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj7zrcool View Post
We're selling standard 7/16" 4x8 OSB @ $45 right now and literally can't get/keep enough. If you can find a truckload on the open market, it sells @ premium of $400-$600 over Random Lengths. I heard yesterday that a large chain lumber yard bought multiple trucks of 7/16" OSB Radiant-Barrier decking @ $2000/M ($64/sheet). That's crazy....
Right now 7/16 is selling for $1450/M. In the past we thought $400/M was insane.
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Old 05-05-2021, 02:42 PM   #38
Heath
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Sounds like the loggers need to find a way to go direct to the consumer if they are getting squeezed by the middle men like that.
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Old 05-05-2021, 02:44 PM   #39
Dale Moser
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At least you can still GET lumber.


I've got brick on order that I can't get until November, and some I've been trying to get since January. It's beginning to make my physically ill dealing with it, and not having any answers.
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Old 05-05-2021, 02:56 PM   #40
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Talked a builder super for Taylor Morrison homes he said they were paying 70.00 a sheet for OSB when they can get it.
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:23 PM   #41
cj7zrcool
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Russ79 View Post
Right now 7/16 is selling for $1450/M. In the past we thought $400/M was insane.
Agreed. At this point, I can't even imagine what the top of the market will be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Moser View Post
At least you can still GET lumber.....
Unfortunately that's not the case with us. We're having to turn away homeowners, remodelers, and "new" builders from sales of some allocated material so we'll have enough for our loyal builders.
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:28 PM   #42
Dale Moser
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Originally Posted by cj7zrcool View Post



Unfortunately that's not the case with us. We're having to turn away homeowners, remodelers, and "new" builders from sales of some allocated material so we'll have enough for our loyal builders.
Yes sir, I am as well. I've done some "culling" as well....some that felt good to let go. But I'm still struggling to get brick in a reasonable amount of time for the people I want to help the most. The worst part is not having any answers. I've been in this business my whole life, and never seen anything like this. It's miserable to go to work every day.
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:36 PM   #43
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If prices do not drop....does this not open the door for entrepreneur/innovation to come in and create a comparable product for much much cheaper? (I'm not in this industry so I do not understand the product).
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:48 PM   #44
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How do metal studs compare in price
?
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Old 05-05-2021, 03:51 PM   #45
Dale Moser
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Quote:
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If prices do not drop....does this not open the door for entrepreneur/innovation to come in and create a comparable product for much much cheaper? (I'm not in this industry so I do not understand the product).
OSB is basically cheap plywood, I'm in the brick business. What it SHOULD open the door for is newer/bigger/faster manufacturing facilities. I can't speak for the OSB industry, but the government, and all of its environazis, make that a very slow, very difficult, and EXTREMELY expensive task in the brick industry, even with unprecedented demand. (you can thank the likes of the Sierra Club for that) It's really the only thing they are good at, holding back progress.

Plus, we'll be in a bust by the time a new plant comes on line.
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:00 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by Dale Moser View Post
Yes sir, I am as well. I've done some "culling" as well....some that felt good to let go. But I'm still struggling to get brick in a reasonable amount of time for the people I want to help the most. The worst part is not having any answers. I've been in this business my whole life, and never seen anything like this. It's miserable to go to work every day.
I watched an interview with the former Zillow CEO and he said from 1970-2010 the USA built roughly 25 million houses per decade. After 2008 that changed and from 2010- 2020 only 6.8 million homes were built. That is a 18 million home shortfall with the population actually increasing not decreasing.

Add to that:

Record low interest rates
Lock downs (people not being able to travel internationally like they used to = more money to spend domestically)
Covid fears
Work from home being the new norm
Government printing money like crazy
Crypto boom
Stock market boom
More regulations
$15 minimum wage
Shutting down drilling on public lands

It has all created the perfect storm we are seeing now and I predict it gets way worse before it gets better.



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Old 05-05-2021, 04:10 PM   #47
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Builders in our area are now getting $300 plus a foot to build on your land. I would think now is the time to sell off rental and investment homes.
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:39 PM   #48
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I almost sold my dads 50 sheets of 3/4" AC Plywood for $45 last year. I might have to sell at these rates or hire a security guard.
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:40 PM   #49
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Another good reason I am going ICF and cement pillars. What is a good alternative to wood for my 30x40 2nd floor patio? 3 floor beach house.
Been leaning same direction
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Old 05-05-2021, 04:45 PM   #50
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we are upping our homeowners insurance
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