The Market Bottom?

[FF316]

I just need to know which ones to invest in!

[Pintail45]

Rule #1: Never trust anyone that proclaims to know when the bottom is.

The easiest way I've found to buy NEAR the bottom is to place limit orders to take advantage of the dips. The more savvy investors may also wish to sell puts.

[Hoggslayer]

It's Up big time today.

[bowhntrmatt]

For those that think we are at/near the bottom.... what stocks are you jumping into since everything is a bargain?
Oil seems to me to be a no-brainer, but wondering about others.

[RiverRat1]

CLVS - NOT long term play

AMZN calls 8 months out.


IMO market won't set new lows below 19k It may be a very rocky ride up from here. If tomorrow is up again I think that shows people know it's finally almost over. But geez it needs a breather instead of straight up.

[Hardware]

Right now I think it's foolish to try and predict what the Market will do in the coming months. What many experts think based on years of knowledge is going to be drastically different going forward since the Stimulus package politicians recently passed basically Nationalized our business model. The Federal Reserve will hold notes on all business giving them far to much power to manipulate capital markets.

[Shane]

Rule #1: Never trust anyone that proclaims to know when the bottom is.

Yep. My best indicator of a bottom has always been when the most people freak and decide that there's no way THIS can be the bottom. In all the past declines, I've had one client call and refuse to be talked out of selling on the bottom day each time. It was the same client in the previous two big crashes in 2003 and 2009, actually. I refused to buy stocks for them any more in April of 2009 when they called to get back in after selling in March. I was making money on their bad decisions, but they were losing every time. Not a good situation. They're not clients anymore. There always seems to be 1 at the bottom of every correction and crash.

I had a client call and sell on March 23rd this time, when the Dow closed at 18K. I'll let you know in a couple months if they were the ones that sold on the bottom day this time or not. They're the only ones that have sold so far.

[RiverRat1]

Why say anything if/when they sell? I thought no one could time the market top or bottom?

Stocks go up...and I mean WAY up and I get talked as a fool for saying maybe people should sell.

[Artos]

Yep. My best indicator of a bottom has always been when the most people freak and decide that there's no way THIS can be the bottom. In all the past declines, I've had one client call and refuse to be talked out of selling on the bottom day each time. It was the same client in the previous two big crashes in 2003 and 2009, actually. I refused to buy stocks for them any more in April of 2009 when they called to get back in after selling in March. I was making money on their bad decisions, but they were losing every time. Not a good situation. They're not clients anymore. There always seems to be 1 at the bottom of every correction and crash.

I had a client call and sell on March 23rd this time, when the Dow closed at 18K. I'll let you know in a couple months if they were the ones that sold on the bottom day this time or not. They're the only ones that have sold so far.

Talked to my FA that same day to discuss & should have went with my gut...I'll let you know in a couple of months if I'm a putz for not buying a little that day.

[Shane]

Why say anything if/when they sell? I thought no one could time the market top or bottom?

Stocks go up...and I mean WAY up and I get talked as a fool for saying maybe people should sell.

Well, because it's my job to give them the best advice I know how to give them, and selling in a panic - especially when the market is really low already - is never a good idea.

99% of the time when people are as panicky as you were, they're wrong. You were a genius this time though.

[Burnadell]

Depends on what one means by "recovered".

Markets went up 100% off bottom in less than 2 years. But took 4 years to reach new all time highs.

If you take the average 2 year high from pre- 08/2008 then ??

The difference is the markets drifter lower from 10/2007 until they hit bottom in 03/2009 So it's opinion on where we recovered from exactly.

Simple. I'm talking from the market level when it started dropping in Oct, 2007, until it got back to that level. It was not 18mos.

[RiverRat1]

Simple. I'm talking from the market level when it started dropping in Oct, 2007, until it got back to that level. It was not 18mos.

Then you'd be correct.. But it did take 2.5 years to hit bottom also LOL

To me "recovered" doesn't have to mean setting new all time highs.

But I have no dog in this fight.

[Burnadell]

Then you'd be correct.. But it did take 2.5 years to hit bottom also LOL

To me "recovered" doesn't have to mean setting new all time highs.

"Recovered" means "recovering" back to the peak where it was when it started falling.

I don't know where you and Tevor73402 get your information/numbers, but 2.5 years to hit bottom is incorrect and 18 months to recover is incorrect.

S&P 500 peaked on October 10, 2007 @ 1565, then it bottomed on March 9, 2009 @ 676, a drop of 56% over 17 months.

Then, it did not get back to the previous peak of 1565 until March 28, 2013, which was about 5 1/2 years from peak until it recovered back to that peak. It took 4 years from the market bottom on March 9, 2009 to get back to the previous market high.

[RiverRat1]

Well, because it's my job to give them the best advice I know how to give them, and selling in a panic - especially when the market is really low already - is never a good idea.

99% of the time when people are as panicky as you were, they're wrong. You were a genius this time though.

I must be the only guy that panics before markets drop.

I still don't think you get what I'm saying..maybe one day. What I'm talking about only happens once every decade or so...so it doesn't matter. We will all be conditioned (again) to buy and hold is the only game. Until the next debacle

[coker737]

At first it seems funny. But overall I'd wager you get better advise from conservative hunters versus the media or pretty much everywhere else that's biased.

Always have to pay attention...which is why I said "overall"

Yep, I always have trusted my Retirement Financial Advisory. And after 9/11 while working for Southwest Airlines, I trusted Herb Kelleher and set up my retirement confident and conservative. "Manage In The Good Times To Protect The Company (me) In The Bad Times".

Good advise for all of us IMHO