Crazy Inflated Home Construction Costs?

[Matt_C]

No chance it goes back down!

People are paying it now, why would they lower the prices

This same principle applys to everything. Presently ammo and ammo components. Berger raised there bullet prices recently.

[RiverRat1]

This same principle applys to everything. Presently ammo and ammo components. Berger raised there bullet prices recently.

It does not apply all the time. In true rare shortages (like ammo) once supply catches up prices can come back down. This is why lumber could/maybe come down some.. Not back down like ammo has the chance to though.

One needs to know why demand for lumber is so high or why supply is so low.

[Fordnandez]

FED printing trillions can hold it up.

Lumber prices may come down some and housing prices may stabilize and stop selling over asking prices...But I can't see homes ever coming down even remotely close to what they were a year ago. Not a chance.

Did price of homes drastically drop in 08-10 vs what they were worth on 06-07? Fact of the matter is people are over extending themselves and it will all come crashing down and prices will dip when foreclosures start saturating the market and it is no longer a sellers market. With that said it will all come back around just like it has now.

[tps7742]

I think you will find the timber growers prices haven’t increased much at all but “others” profits as we know has skyrocketed.

[jmeghunts]

Did price of homes drastically drop in 08-10 vs what they were worth on 06-07? Fact of the matter is people are over extending themselves and it will all come crashing down and prices will dip when foreclosures start saturating the market and it is no longer a sellers market. With that said it will all come back around just like it has now.

Please tell me that you know when this will happen!

[tps7742]

Did price of homes drastically drop in 08-10 vs what they were worth on 06-07? Fact of the matter is people are over extending themselves and it will all come crashing down and prices will dip when foreclosures start saturating the market and it is no longer a sellers market. With that said it will all come back around just like it has now.

This sounds all too familiar, as we know history of these cycles do repeat themselves.

[Notaguide]

This sounds all too familiar, as we know history of these cycles do repeat themselves.

Exactly! Only difference today than '08 is most also have a 20yr RV note, 15yr boat loan, and 7yr car loan on top of their 30yr mortgage. Insane the amount of credit that has been extended in the last few years. Great for the economy until it's not.

[BlackoutRam2500]

This sounds all too familiar, as we know history of these cycles do repeat themselves.

Every crash is different though. For all we know last year was our crash when the stock market went to 17,000 and oil -$40 a barrel.


No one really knows what's going to happen tomorrow or 6 months from now. What we do know today is that lumber is at record highs and it's the major sawmills making all the profits. They have been losing money for years though so I have no issues with them getting theirs.

We also know new construction housing permits were up 17% nationwide year over year in February, which means stick lumber isn't going down in price anytime soon on it's own.

Powell says he is keeping rates low throughout 2021. And the government is preparing to offer all those people who were in fed backed loans and haven't been paying their mortgages a 40 year loan modification, which means the market won't see a ton of foreclosures from Covid.

Now what we don't know is will there be another Covid? Or another September 11th? Or some crazy hack on Bitcoin? Or something else that will crash everything? Only time will tell

[Fordnandez]

Please tell me that you know when this will happen!

This is the multi million/billion/trillion dollar question. In 07 most people would say "not a chance" it would all come crashing down. Now that is convienent to say otherwise people will say "I saw it coming". Fact of the matter is none of us know but I will maintaing the position that we can't sustain these prices.

[RiverRat1]

Did price of homes drastically drop in 08-10 vs what they were worth on 06-07? Fact of the matter is people are over extending themselves and it will all come crashing down and prices will dip when foreclosures start saturating the market and it is no longer a sellers market. With that said it will all come back around just like it has now.

No, they didn't.

For years and years my brother saved every dime he could thinking the housing market would crash. Then when it started to drop the FED bailed out underwater home owners, banks, etc..

They at least didn't drop enough for him to buy anything. I was watching also and didn't see much drop. I'm sure there may have been a few quick good deals but the overall housing market didn't tank.

I could be wrong. Any realtors want to chime in on this?

[manwitaplan]

Received my new wood prices today from my supplier.

2x4x16. Grade 2 $18.79
2x12x16 $76.00 [emoji857][emoji857][emoji857]

Absolutely crazy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jmeghunts]

Exactly! Only difference today than '08 is most also have a 20yr RV note, 15yr boat loan, and 7yr car loan on top of their 30yr mortgage. Insane the amount of credit that has been extended in the last few years. Great for the economy until it's not.

Good point.

[jmeghunts]

This is the multi million/billion/trillion dollar question. In 07 most people would say "not a chance" it would all come crashing down. Now that is convienent to say otherwise people will say "I saw it coming". Fact of the matter is none of us know but I will maintaing the position that we can't sustain these prices.

I think you’re right about that.

[glen]

When we get a repeat of Jimmy Carter double digit inflation and interest rates it will downturn and the first two I mentioned are coming. Only factor im not sure on is building costs and housing costs may not go downward

[JonBoy]

When people quit paying the prices.

This. My buddy is a custom home builder and he's got people moving here from Cali who've cashed out and paying market prices for new construction here without batting an eye. What he was quoting at $160/sqft a few years ago he's pricing at $225 and they just keep coming.

Median price of houses in S.A. is over $300k now and our wages haven't gone up. Its all outside buyers pushing prices through the roof. Locals won't sell their their homes because they can't afford to buy something else so the inventory is super low also leading to higher prices.