Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Heads up- winter weather and potential arctic air end of week

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Heads up- winter weather and potential arctic air end of week

    I haven’t seen this discussed here or really anywhere. But a good portion of the state looks to get a shot of cold air accompanied by some winter precip (hallelujah!) at the end of the work week.

    Models aren’t in full agreement on the details, but the big picture they all pretty much paint the same picture. That picture includes a cold 1050mb high pressure system entering the northern tier US and dumping the coldest air of the season, not that that is saying much for this winter. This cold air mixes with a low pressure system across much of Texas Wed/thurs and gives most of the state some snow and freezing mix precipitation. The cold is going to come in a couple of waves where we get the initial cold air that brings to or below freezing and then later even colder air filters in behind.

    Where models aren’t in full agreement is how much frozen precip falls, how cold it gets and for how long. Models have temps as cold as 0° in much of NTX and staying below freezing until Monday. Others have temps in teens and warming up by Saturday.

    Bottom line, expect some of the coldest air this season, and make necessary preparations. ERCOT may get tested again.

    My personal opinion is that this won’t be as cold as last Feb, but I believe we may see more winter precip over the state that would likely cause power outages.

    I’ll try to add some screenshots of various model runs later. Any other weather followers are free to add on their observations/interpretations or disagree, always interested in others opinions
    Last edited by Playa; 01-30-2022, 08:11 AM.

    #2
    I think the big difference with this one is the cold doesn't remain under freezing for 4 days.

    Comment


      #3
      Bring it

      Comment


        #4
        Could get pretty icy around DFW - rain Wednesday turning to snow Thursday with a low around 10 and a high of 22

        Comment


          #5
          Another feature worth mentioning of this evolving system is the fact that it will come through with negative tilt. You often hear that in severe weather season. This could potentially lead to more copious amounts of precip and convective outbursts that would lead to lightning. So thunder sleet/thunder freezing rain is looking likely as the system ejects across n tx. It will be interesting to see how soon the colder air can overcome the initial shallow air mass. It will be plenty cold/below freezing for frozen precip but it will initially be freezing rain. The longer it takes to change completely over to snow the more ice we will see. If the system slows down we can get more ice. Speeds up and more snow. The models have come into good agreement on this system and by tonight/tomorrow we should be getting a better picture of who gets what and how much. The models have some crazy amounts of ice/snow but it all hinges on the time it will take to completely change over to snow. I wouldn't plan on driving anywhere starting Wednesday night and especially Thursday. The ice underneath the snow will make it impossible. As far as warm up, the national weather service seems to think a quick warmup and above freezing by Friday. If we get a good snow/icepack it's not going to get above freezing until maybe Monday. Be careful out there and thanks Playa for bringing this up.

          Comment


            #6
            The coldest I see for southeast TX is 36. Tx storm chasers are saying 10% chance of snow and 55% of sleet freezing rain.

            Nothing burger for me at this point

            Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
            Last edited by Quackerbox; 01-30-2022, 09:15 AM.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Quackerbox View Post
              The coldest I see for southeast TX is 36. Tx storm chasers are saying 10% chance of snow and 55% of sleet freezing rain.

              Nothing burger for me at this point

              Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
              yes but, all texans share the same grid...

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by camoclad View Post
                yes but, all texans share the same grid...
                Never even fired the generator last year and everything was good. We'll survive

                Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

                Comment


                  #9
                  Where was this weather during the rut?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Below freezing here for a couple of days
                    Then just real cold.
                    Feeding my deer and cows heavy next three days.

                    BP

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by hopedale View Post
                      I think the big difference with this one is the cold doesn't remain under freezing for 4 days.
                      I’m not totally convinced that duration of cold may not happen

                      Comment


                        #12
                        The cold ain’t gonna bother me but I’m not gonna “hallelujah” over freezing rain or sleet. I can’t imagine anyone liking that.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Im looking forward to it

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Drycreek3189 View Post
                            The cold ain’t gonna bother me but I’m not gonna “hallelujah” over freezing rain or sleet. I can’t imagine anyone liking that.
                            I’m not fond of sleet & freezing rain, but frankly range conditions are poor and worsening and we need any moisture we can get

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Quackerbox View Post
                              Never even fired the generator last year and everything was good. We'll survive

                              Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
                              Thumbs up emoji

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X