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Old 06-15-2021, 10:43 AM   #1
Dusty Britches
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Smile Lumber prices are falling fast

Two consecutive days of limit down on cash price.

The Wall Street Journal June 15, 2021

Lumber prices are falling back to earth.

Futures for July delivery ended Monday at $996.20 per thousand board feet, down 42% from the record of $1,711.20 reached in early May. Futures have declined 14 of the past 15 trading days, the last two by the most allowed by exchange rules.

Cash lumber prices are also crashing. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks on-the-spot sales, dropped $122 to $1,324, its biggest ever weekly decline. The pullback came just six weeks after the index rose $124 during the first week of May, its most on record. Random Lengths described a chaotic rout in which sawmill managers struggled to provide customers with price quotes.
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Old 06-15-2021, 10:45 AM   #2
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I've got my fingers and toes crossed. We paused building our house for the moment and are stuck in Limbo building/buying. Neither of which is fun or cheap.
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Old 06-15-2021, 10:47 AM   #3
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Man that is great news .......maybe after painting and flooring, I can start back up with some of my wood based projects.


Doesn't look like Home Depot got the message quite yet. Hopefully We'll see some movement soon.
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Old 06-15-2021, 10:48 AM   #4
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I paused a fence... deck... and so on. I've not bought a single piece of lumber in a year. Worked on everything else. I've been watching this as well and hoping enough people stay on the sidelines and refuse to pay the crazy prices until they come back to Earth. $51 now at Lowes for a 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB. That's a $7.X piece of lumber pre covid.
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Old 06-15-2021, 10:50 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart View Post
Man that is great news .......maybe after painting and flooring, I can start back up with some of my wood based projects.


Doesn't look like Home Depot got the message quite yet. Hopefully We'll see some movement soon.
This is about right. I just built to bases for my blinds 700.00

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Old 06-15-2021, 10:52 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by ken800 View Post
I paused a fence... deck... and so on. I've not bought a single piece of lumber in a year. Worked on everything else. I've been watching this as well and hoping enough people stay on the sidelines and refuse to pay the crazy prices until they come back to Earth. $51 now at Lowes for a 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB. That's a $7.X piece of lumber pre covid.
We build lots of large crates for our projects out of state but not enough that I can really buy in bulk. Plywood has been brutal.
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:02 AM   #7
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I’m hopeful. Would like to build a gabled pergola, but I ain’t doing it at current lumber prices.
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:14 AM   #8
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C'mon normalcy
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:17 AM   #9
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Futures pricing will take a little while to reach the market. I would expect to start seeing declines at the big box stores in another month or so.
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:27 AM   #10
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Almost too good to be true. I am being "forced" into an add on. 3 kids on the ground and twins on the way. I can almost cut my cost in half if lumber gets back to normal before I order.

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Old 06-15-2021, 11:28 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Gclyde28 View Post
Futures pricing will take a little while to reach the market. I would expect to start seeing declines at the big box stores in another month or so.
It's the old Gas story... Prices of gas at the pump jump instantly on any geopolitical issues then they slowly creep back down. When asking why, it's because they have to sell off the expensive stuff that is already in the channel. My question is always, "Why, then, did prices jump instantly? There was cheap gas in the channel..."
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:28 AM   #12
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Lumber prices killed new home construction, so prices are falling due to decreased demand. The market wins again!
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:30 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by ken800 View Post
It's the old Gas story... Prices of gas at the pump jump instantly on any geopolitical issues then they slowly creep back down. When asking why, it's because they have to sell off the expensive stuff that is already in the channel. My question is always, "Why, then, did prices jump instantly? There was cheap gas in the channel..."
I hear what your saying, but the lumber prices at the store didn't immediately skyrocket. They were delayed behind the futures...
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Old 06-15-2021, 11:51 AM   #14
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The weather really hurt a lot for new homes. There is some job sites delayed or opening up, but treaters and box stores have really pulled out of the market. This is a digestion phase of people working thru inventory and loads still coming in to yards. We will hit levels where people will start covering existing jobs on the books and things will level out. In my mind that will be weeks, not months. Then we will stair-step down if normal type business continues.

And futures does little to affect the daily price of material. With that futures sector mainly focusing on the SPF market, which is becoming a smaller factor to SYP lumber.

We aren't going back to the old normal, but can't stay at this current situation either on lumber. If I were building a home, deck, or fence - I would sure pat my wood and be patient. BUt do not expect things to go back to pre-covid pricing. Now panel goods is anybody's guess, since that market has really consolidated over the last few years.

Another major impact could develop as banks lift the ban/delay on foreclosures. It could push more inventory into the market. The reality is the cost of living is up and many families have been priced out of the market due to increases.
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:03 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by ultrastealth View Post
Lumber prices killed new home construction, so prices are falling due to decreased demand. The market wins again!
Not around Austin it hasn't. They can't build houses fast enough around here.
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:05 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Gclyde28 View Post
Futures pricing will take a little while to reach the market. I would expect to start seeing declines at the big box stores in another month or so.
I was hoping a bit sooner. Opening up back of house and need to frame out three temporary walls and install LVLs. Hoping for a crash between now and next week.
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:06 PM   #17
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Best news I've heard in a while. My construction loan opens on 6/21 so this is great news.
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:10 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by ultrastealth View Post
Lumber prices killed new home construction, so prices are falling due to decreased demand. The market wins again!
Killed it? It was at a 15 year high where was it gonna go? I believe permits have continued to increase have they not?
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:18 PM   #19
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Oh perfect...now that I’ve got all my wood building projects finished. Timing is everything.
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:21 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultrastealth View Post
Lumber prices killed new home construction, so prices are falling due to decreased demand. The market wins again!
I wish...sure didnít stop anybody, didnít even slow them down, from building duplexes right across the road from me. Who the hell builds duplexes in the country???
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:26 PM   #21
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Dang, I hope so. Ridiculous how high it got/is.

Now if the same good news can happen for corn prices. Paying $10 a bag might make me take this year off. Was already an "expensive to me" addiction before the increase.



J
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:29 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Geezy Rider View Post
I wish...sure didnít stop anybody, didnít even slow them down, from building duplexes right across the road from me. Who the hell builds duplexes in the country???
Where else are all the NY and CA transplants supposed to go?
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:30 PM   #23
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When is steel going to follow?
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:33 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dusty Britches View Post
Two consecutive days of limit down on cash price.

The Wall Street Journal June 15, 2021

Lumber prices are falling back to earth.

Futures for July delivery ended Monday at $996.20 per thousand board feet, down 42% from the record of $1,711.20 reached in early May. Futures have declined 14 of the past 15 trading days, the last two by the most allowed by exchange rules.

Cash lumber prices are also crashing. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks on-the-spot sales, dropped $122 to $1,324, its biggest ever weekly decline. The pullback came just six weeks after the index rose $124 during the first week of May, its most on record. Random Lengths described a chaotic rout in which sawmill managers struggled to provide customers with price quotes.
Random Lengths has printed down the last three weeks on Yellow Pine & SPF. Last week 2x6 #2YP was down $188/K...which equates to $0.188 a linear foot, or a $1.88 on a 10'er.

Retail or wholesale pricing is based off of replacement cost and that doesn't mean future pricing...yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ken800 View Post
I paused a fence... deck... and so on. I've not bought a single piece of lumber in a year. Worked on everything else. I've been watching this as well and hoping enough people stay on the sidelines and refuse to pay the crazy prices until they come back to Earth. $51 now at Lowes for a 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB. That's a $7.X piece of lumber pre covid.
Anything OSB related is not included in any cost declines. 7/16" was up another $10/K...or $0.32/sheet and will probably continue to go up through the summer and into fall.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playa View Post
I’m hopeful. Would like to build a gabled pergola, but I ain’t doing it at current lumber prices.
Cedar isn't coming down either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ken800 View Post
It's the old Gas story... Prices of gas at the pump jump instantly on any geopolitical issues then they slowly creep back down. When asking why, it's because they have to sell off the expensive stuff that is already in the channel. My question is always, "Why, then, did prices jump instantly? There was cheap gas in the channel..."
Lumber & structural panels have been increasing in cost virtually every week for the last 15 months, so I wouldn't really call that an "instant" jump.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ultrastealth View Post
Lumber prices killed new home construction, so prices are falling due to decreased demand. The market wins again!
Not in North or Central Texas, it hasn't.

Last edited by cj7zrcool; 06-15-2021 at 12:36 PM.
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:34 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Geezy Rider View Post
I wish...sure didnít stop anybody, didnít even slow them down, from building duplexes right across the road from me. Who the hell builds duplexes in the country???
Investors!
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:34 PM   #26
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When is steel going to follow?
No kidding!!!
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:35 PM   #27
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I think timber futures around $250.00 before this pre pandemic mess?
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Old 06-15-2021, 12:50 PM   #28
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Has anyone priced Romex lately? The last roll I bought for our house build was in January, and that set me back $75 for a 250ft roll. Last week that same roll at the Depot was $289.00. We were about to start a 7500 sqft barndo, but that had to be put off until we can get back to being able to afford it.
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Old 06-15-2021, 01:04 PM   #29
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Read this this morning...can't come soon enough..projects to do!
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Old 06-15-2021, 02:30 PM   #30
Dusty Britches
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Originally Posted by ken800 View Post
.... $51 now at Lowes for a 4x8 sheet of 7/16 OSB. That's a $7.X piece of lumber pre covid.
Two weeks ago I saw 3/4" plywood at $98 at HD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JhuntsAlot View Post
Dang, I hope so. Ridiculous how high it got/is.

Now if the same good news can happen for corn prices. Paying $10 a bag might make me take this year off. Was already an "expensive to me" addiction before the increase.

J
This morning on AG news they were talking about how high soybeans are getting and they expect that to drive down corn prices. Brazil in in a drought and their soybean supply is down. Brazil and the US are the largest soybeans producers in the world and China is the largest buyer. I say sell to everyone but China and put that dog in his place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dpg481 View Post
Has anyone priced Romex lately? The last roll I bought for our house build was in January, and that set me back $75 for a 250ft roll. Last week that same roll at the Depot was $289.00. We were about to start a 7500 sqft barndo, but that had to be put off until we can get back to being able to afford it.
Yes, copper prices have been $4.25-$4.90 for several months. I need to sell my scrap copper before it drops.
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Old 06-15-2021, 03:06 PM   #31
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There is a lot of pent up demand out there right now waiting for lumber to fall.
When it does drop, developers are going to green light a bunch of multifamily jobs and the market will shoot up again.
Ever since the freeze vinyl products have been going up, CPVC, window frames, etrc. Copper and sheetrock are also up
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Old 06-15-2021, 05:00 PM   #32
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It’s a commodity that can be manipulated like any other market is my belief
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Old 06-15-2021, 05:43 PM   #33
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OK...Does this mean that builders who paid high prices for lumber, during the increase will keep those resale prices high because they paid high and need to get their money back?
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Old 06-15-2021, 05:52 PM   #34
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OK...Does this mean that builders who paid high prices for lumber, during the increase will keep those resale prices high because they paid high and need to get their money back?
Well of course why wouldn't they.

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Old 06-15-2021, 05:56 PM   #35
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Up here, Lowes, menards, home depot are overflowing with stock..
I need a pallet of 7/16 osb.. wont buy it till its under $10 per sheet.
High was $54.. now $51.
I bought 1000s of feet of 12-2 at $264 per 1000 and 14-2 at $182 per 1000, wont need any wire for a long time, certainly long enough to get thru this disaster.
High here for 12-2 was $893.72 per 1000.
Its now $675..
Hit a deal last Jan and bought a 5000ft reel of 8-3wg, 90c insulation, rated sunlight resist and direct burial,.. gave $850.. its worth about $15k today..lol
I wont ever need to buy wire for stoves, dryers, water heaters, ac units again..lol
Loaded up on several sqd panels, breakers, boxes, fiber and metal, and devices.. including generator wiring parts..
Its a 30 mile drive for parts here.
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Old 06-15-2021, 06:24 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by 88 Bound View Post
Where else are all the NY and CA transplants supposed to go?
That makes me nauseous.
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Old 06-15-2021, 07:08 PM   #37
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We will be building starting early next summer. Maybe I will get lucky and prices will be back to "normal" by then, along with other material prices as well!
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Old 06-15-2021, 09:27 PM   #38
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I got our house to this point and took a three month vacation hoping material would drop soon.
Finally found a deal on my siding and bead board ceiling so I got it while I could.


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Old 06-15-2021, 10:34 PM   #39
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Not around Austin it hasn't. They can't build houses fast enough around here.
Not here either, they are building every where. And can’t build them fast enough for the demand.
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Old 06-16-2021, 04:43 AM   #40
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In my neighborhood east of San Antonio they are still building as fast as they can, and are still selling them. But now, the builders shrank the lot size. They went from 20 houses per street to 25 houses per street. They also shrank the size of the house. From 1600-2200 square feet down to 1000-1300 square feet but kept the prices the same. A 1300 square foot 3 bedroom 2 bath house is selling for $225k. For reference, my 1766 square foot 3/2 house with lots of upgrades was bought in July of last year at a discounted price of $215k.


From what I keep reading, due to a “perfect storm of many factors” and continuation of multiple “random accidents “, the cost of everything is going to either stay where it’s at, with small fluctuations of course, or keep going up. And we haven’t even had any hurricanes or massive power outages, yet.
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Old 06-16-2021, 06:56 AM   #41
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We will be building starting early next summer. Maybe I will get lucky and prices will be back to "normal" by then, along with other material prices as well!
By then the rates will go through the roof. Hope not

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Old 06-16-2021, 07:03 AM   #42
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I am being "forced" into an add on. 3 kids on the ground and twins on the way.
Get a TV or something!
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Old 06-16-2021, 09:27 AM   #43
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this was Monday at Lowe's. Highest I've seen them
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Old 06-16-2021, 11:20 AM   #44
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One thing to keep in mind - Texas is a beast that eats wood for construction compared to other states.

Last year the census showed 15 million+ new residents moving to Texas. And not to start a war, but that is documented residents.

That is simple supply and demand.
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Old 06-18-2021, 07:01 AM   #45
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Now we need copper wire prices to fall.
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Old 06-18-2021, 07:58 AM   #46
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Last year the census showed 15 million+ new residents moving to Texas. And not to start a war, but that is documented residents.
Where did you get those numbers? Fake news? I'd find a new source.
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Old 06-18-2021, 08:02 AM   #47
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You will start to see most prices drop as the fed looks to raise rates and cool down the economy a bit.
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Old 06-18-2021, 08:04 AM   #48
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You will start to see most prices drop as the fed looks to raise rates and cool down the economy a bit.

They said yesterday they still arenít expecting a rate hike until 2023.


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Old 06-18-2021, 08:07 AM   #49
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Might watch what the TLT 20 yr is doing.

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They said yesterday they still arenít expecting a rate hike until 2023.


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Old 06-18-2021, 08:14 AM   #50
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Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Victoria
Hunt In: Mission Valley, Victoria, and anywhere else I can sling an arrow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasCanesFan View Post
Now we need copper wire prices to fall.
Copper base last Wed. $4.53 this morning $4.17
of course it could close this afternoon at $4.60
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