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Old 04-19-2021, 12:41 PM   #1
Burnadell
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Default Texas land prices

I am not trying to start an argument here. This post is purely for educational/informative purposes only.

I have regularly seen posts that some say that real estate prices will only go up, that it is never going to go down; land is the best investment, etc. I am not trying to argue that point, but I do shake my head with the naivety of those statements. Some here were either not around in the 80's or were two young to have been aware. As former banks in those days, I remember all too well that some people bought at the top of the market, both land and houses.

Check out this info:

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/r...#!/state/Texas

Average land prices took 18 years to recoup what the sold for in 1985. Sure, there are/were exceptions, but it happens!

Again, I am not trying to discourage anybody from buying land; just be aware that it is not as guaranteed (in the short term) as some think. Long term...different story.
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Old 04-19-2021, 12:44 PM   #2
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No reason to share logical, factual information!! Thank you for sharing!
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Old 04-19-2021, 12:47 PM   #3
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The housing/land market will go back down. I don’t think the commodities that are used can sustain the pace.
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Old 04-19-2021, 12:53 PM   #4
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Same can be said for the stock market.
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Old 04-19-2021, 12:55 PM   #5
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I bought 20 acres out in Big Bend. Middle of nowhere, an hour from pavement, for 75 hundred a few years ago. A neighboring property sold last week for 30k! Land is selling at a premium price pretty much anywhere.
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Old 04-19-2021, 12:55 PM   #6
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Have a neigbor that bought around 84 or 85. Came in from Middle east oilfield with money to burn. He talks about it all the time. Think he paid almost 2K an acre. And in 86 prices dropped and took till late 90s for it to get back to the same prices. I tell people about this all the time and they think im crazy....
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Old 04-19-2021, 01:09 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Hills of Texas View Post
I bought 20 acres out in Big Bend. Middle of nowhere, an hour from pavement, for 75 hundred a few years ago. A neighboring property sold last week for 30k! Land is selling at a premium price pretty much anywhere.
Are the buyers from California?
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Old 04-19-2021, 01:12 PM   #8
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Are the buyers from California?
I have no idea where they are from. Used to be places for sell all over the place out there. Not so much anymore.
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Old 04-19-2021, 01:13 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
I am not trying to start an argument here. This post is purely for educational/informative purposes only.

I have regularly seen posts that some say that real estate prices will only go up, that it is never going to go down; land is the best investment, etc. I am not trying to argue that point, but I do shake my head with the naivety of those statements. Some here were either not around in the 80's or were two young to have been aware. As former banks in those days, I remember all too well that some people bought at the top of the market, both land and houses.

Check out this info:

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/r...#!/state/Texas

Average land prices took 18 years to recoup what the sold for in 1985. Sure, there are/were exceptions, but it happens!

Again, I am not trying to discourage anybody from buying land; just be aware that it is not as guaranteed (in the short term) as some think. Long term...different story.
*too.

Property in Centerville was averaging 5k an acre 3 years ago. It’s over 10k now.
Ridiculous...

Last edited by Rubi513; 04-19-2021 at 01:16 PM.
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Old 04-19-2021, 01:27 PM   #10
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Real estate folks told me that people are looking to get out of the cities for a number of reasons, but that it took a big jump when the riots started last year.
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Old 04-19-2021, 01:33 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
I am not trying to start an argument here. This post is purely for educational/informative purposes only.

I have regularly seen posts that some say that real estate prices will only go up, that it is never going to go down; land is the best investment, etc. I am not trying to argue that point, but I do shake my head with the naivety of those statements. Some here were either not around in the 80's or were two young to have been aware. As former banks in those days, I remember all too well that some people bought at the top of the market, both land and houses.

Check out this info:

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/r...#!/state/Texas

Average land prices took 18 years to recoup what the sold for in 1985. Sure, there are/were exceptions, but it happens!

Again, I am not trying to discourage anybody from buying land; just be aware that it is not as guaranteed (in the short term) as some think. Long term...different story.
Just remember grasshopper that tax law changes had a big effect on those prices. When you could no longer deduct the interest expense real estate crashed. As long as people keep moving here real estate will be a great investment.
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Old 04-19-2021, 01:40 PM   #12
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We just bough a place for $4200 an acre for 50 acres in the sweet spot. That was tops of our budget and one of the only places we found in that area for miles. Its been 6 months since we had one that was even close to reasonable on price.
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Old 04-19-2021, 01:50 PM   #13
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As mentioned in Burnadell’s post I do remember exactly as you stated. I purchased our first home at 14% in 1983 and after the mortgage bust it took us 13 years to get the home price back up to sale it. We did refinance 3 times during this period. I do know some older guys I worked with that were buying homes 5 at time at auctions in the Houston area. Granted these were bought in the older neighborhoods. Hopefully it never gets like that again.
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:00 PM   #14
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Rural property inventories are low right now. Good if you are selling, more costly if buying due to more competition for less land. Took us a year to find the right place at the right price.
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:11 PM   #15
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Land is a long term investment most of the time. A few advantages are the write offs if you run livestock. Depreciation on wells, fences. vehicles etc. Another advantage is you can't just sale it over night and spend the money on boats, cars, vacations, etc. JMO In other words it's harder to get to your money.

Last edited by doghouse; 04-19-2021 at 02:13 PM.
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:12 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
I am not trying to start an argument here. This post is purely for educational/informative purposes only.

I have regularly seen posts that some say that real estate prices will only go up, that it is never going to go down; land is the best investment, etc. I am not trying to argue that point, but I do shake my head with the naivety of those statements. Some here were either not around in the 80's or were two young to have been aware. As former banks in those days, I remember all too well that some people bought at the top of the market, both land and houses.

Check out this info:

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/r...#!/state/Texas

Average land prices took 18 years to recoup what the sold for in 1985. Sure, there are/were exceptions, but it happens!

Again, I am not trying to discourage anybody from buying land; just be aware that it is not as guaranteed (in the short term) as some think. Long term...different story.
Combination of cheap capital, legal and illegal immigration from foreign and domestic regions, and inflationary government policy combines to further push prices up, but at a slower rate IMO. Of course no tree grows to the sky and price growth is outstripping the fundamentals but significant pullback in terms of non-inflation adjusted dollars is unlikely in my opinion. At the very least I see real estate in general, including raw land, maintaining pace with inflation.

The properties I would be most concerned with are those like a previous poster mentioned way out in the desert. Anything within a couple hours of a major city in Texas is still a solid investment IMO. That being said, raw land is always riskier than good developed property in a desirable area for investment purposes. But the hunting isn't as good
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:14 PM   #17
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As someone who worked distressed bank owned real estate during the 2008 crash I can tell you with 100% confidence that land does not always go up in value year over year.

With that being said, I'm thinking about trading my 640 acres for six 2x4s, a box of 9mm, and a whole home generator.
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:20 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Throwin Darts View Post
As someone who worked distressed bank owned real estate during the 2008 crash I can tell you with 100% confidence that land does not always go up in value year over year.

With that being said, I'm thinking about trading my 640 acres for six 2x4s, a box of 9mm, and a whole home generator.
Ok, I have a box of 9mm, but I'll need a 320 for it.
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Old 04-19-2021, 02:48 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
I am not trying to start an argument here. This post is purely for educational/informative purposes only.

I have regularly seen posts that some say that real estate prices will only go up, that it is never going to go down; land is the best investment, etc. I am not trying to argue that point, but I do shake my head with the naivety of those statements. Some here were either not around in the 80's or were two young to have been aware. As former banks in those days, I remember all too well that some people bought at the top of the market, both land and houses.

Check out this info:

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/r...#!/state/Texas

Average land prices took 18 years to recoup what the sold for in 1985. Sure, there are/were exceptions, but it happens!

Again, I am not trying to discourage anybody from buying land; just be aware that it is not as guaranteed (in the short term) as some think. Long term...different story.
I have that battle with my conservative side every time I bought land for the last 30+ years. I have said the same as you several times but still bought for one reason or another(normally partner driven). It always has gone up. If I hadn't purchased every time I thought this might be the "top end" I would have less than 1/2 my current net worth. Kind of the same with stocks.
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Old 04-19-2021, 03:40 PM   #20
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As the old saying goes . . Ain't no more being made . .
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Old 04-19-2021, 03:47 PM   #21
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As the old saying goes . . Ain't no more being made . .
And the Californians are coming to buy it. I swear this last year has been the dust bowl migrations in reverse.
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Old 04-19-2021, 04:01 PM   #22
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major difference
you didn't have internet in the 80s and the way advertising is now... the majority of the sales are investors and people not even local

so to your point I say its valid but not realistic today
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Old 04-19-2021, 04:14 PM   #23
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you also have to remember the financial crap and other stuff that was going on in the 80's
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Old 04-19-2021, 04:30 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by huntmaster View Post
you also have to remember the financial crap and other stuff that was going on in the 80's
That's going on right now too, just has a mask on it.


I see the housing market taking a tumble in the next couple of years. Right now you're having to overpay but making it up on the back end with basically free money at 2-3% interest rates. Once the inflation hits us and the interest rates go up to 6% and housing cost don't drop, I believe we will see a big downturn in that market.

This is JMO from a chubby Construction worker.

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Old 04-19-2021, 05:13 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by junkmanhunter View Post
That's going on right now too, just has a mask on it.


I see the housing market taking a tumble in the next couple of years. Right now you're having to overpay but making it up on the back end with basically free money at 2-3% interest rates. Once the inflation hits us and the interest rates go up to 6% and housing cost don't drop, I believe we will see a big downturn in that market.

This is JMO from a chubby Construction worker.

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6% interest is cheap, historically speaking. I expect and hope that we achieve balance without a crash.
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Old 04-19-2021, 05:35 PM   #26
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Buddy of mine just sold his very nice house and 300 acres in Madison County. Seven people looked at it and the seventh person bought it, none of the seven were from the state of Texas.
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Old 04-19-2021, 05:44 PM   #27
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I bought in cheap after it crashed back then, it still wasn’t easy. I remember
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Old 04-19-2021, 06:03 PM   #28
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Talking to the TxDot inspector who issued my permit for tinhorn in young county & he said property selling a lot to california folks. Said he was twice as busy or more getting permits out & a lot of out of state people. I told him it was scary hearing they were from communistfornia.

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Old 04-19-2021, 06:24 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Sharecropper View Post
As the old saying goes . . Ain't no more being made . .

But...people keep make-n more people.
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Old 04-19-2021, 06:37 PM   #30
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Man I'd prolly have to tell a Californian to keep walking. Selling out Texas to foreigners is just wrong. If y'all are doing that them you need to just quit complaining about property taxes and the changing politics here because you are the ones creating the problem.

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Old 04-19-2021, 06:53 PM   #31
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But...people keep make-n more people.
Supply and demand . .
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Old 04-19-2021, 06:58 PM   #32
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Supply and demand . .

Yep!...I mean, yes sir-ree!
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Old 04-19-2021, 07:13 PM   #33
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Man I'd prolly have to tell a Californian to keep walking. Selling out Texas to foreigners is just wrong. If y'all are doing that them you need to just quit complaining about property taxes and the changing politics here because you are the ones creating the problem.

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I wonder if Registered Democrat is a lawful reason to refuse a housing contract?
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Old 04-19-2021, 07:18 PM   #34
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Man I'd prolly have to tell a Californian to keep walking. Selling out Texas to foreigners is just wrong. If y'all are doing that them you need to just quit complaining about property taxes and the changing politics here because you are the ones creating the problem.

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Sometimes I feel sorry for whoever has to dress you and tie your shoes each day.
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Old 04-19-2021, 07:26 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnadell View Post
I am not trying to start an argument here. This post is purely for educational/informative purposes only.

I have regularly seen posts that some say that real estate prices will only go up, that it is never going to go down; land is the best investment, etc. I am not trying to argue that point, but I do shake my head with the naivety of those statements. Some here were either not around in the 80's or were two young to have been aware. As former banks in those days, I remember all too well that some people bought at the top of the market, both land and houses.

Check out this info:

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/r...#!/state/Texas

Average land prices took 18 years to recoup what the sold for in 1985. Sure, there are/were exceptions, but it happens!

Again, I am not trying to discourage anybody from buying land; just be aware that it is not as guaranteed (in the short term) as some think. Long term...different story.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dclifton View Post
Have a neigbor that bought around 84 or 85. Came in from Middle east oilfield with money to burn. He talks about it all the time. Think he paid almost 2K an acre. And in 86 prices dropped and took till late 90s for it to get back to the same prices. I tell people about this all the time and they think im crazy....
The place I live on now was put on the market just as prices started the downward slide in the mid-eighties. I passed it twice a day almost every day and kept hoping nobody bought it. The real estate sign finally came down and after a few months I approached the owner and bought it for about 60% of what it had listed for originally.
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Old 04-19-2021, 08:53 PM   #36
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During crashes like the 80s and 08’ the hits were generally on properties with improvements with mortgages, raw land not so much.
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Old 04-19-2021, 09:01 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckSmasher View Post
6% interest is cheap, historically speaking. I expect and hope that we achieve balance without a crash.
You are correct about 6% being cheap. With having to overpay for houses and property that is the only way some people are getting financed and are able to justify building. To be honest, I'm building right now and instead of paying 100% cash, I am getting ready to borrow money to finish up build. I can keep cash and make more in market than the 3% Construction loan and when it converts to final loan it will be 2%.

I hope we can achieve balance without a crash, but look at history, it hasn't happened yet.

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Old 04-19-2021, 09:33 PM   #38
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land is being sold a little different today. Seems most places back home that come on the market are being sold in small 10+ acre tracts. People are seldom buying whole farms and ranches. A few years ago the guy across from my dad put his place on the market, 100+/- acres. Realtor had numerous signs put up ready to part the place. My dad had a deal worked with the owner before the first sign actually went up. He didnít want to have 10 new neighbors.
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Old 04-19-2021, 09:33 PM   #39
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We purchased 500 aces northwest of Katy back in 2001 for 1400.00 per acre, the neighbor just sold his 300 acres for 30,000.00 per acre.
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Old 04-19-2021, 09:35 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by jmeghunts View Post
Sometimes I feel sorry for whoever has to dress you and tie your shoes each day.
It's a choice. You can't ***** about them taking over Texas and then sell out to them. If can't see that that's your issue.

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Old 04-19-2021, 09:41 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RMW View Post
We purchased 500 aces northwest of Katy back in 2001 for 1400.00 per acre, the neighbor just sold his 300 acres for 30,000.00 per acre.
30K an acre?!
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Old 04-19-2021, 09:41 PM   #42
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I think most people that buy land aren’t just looking to resell. We bought our ranch several years back and can’t even thank about selling it. Wife and I have even thought about how to protect if from being sold once the kids get control of it.
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Old 04-19-2021, 09:52 PM   #43
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Good info
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Old 04-19-2021, 10:10 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RMW View Post
We purchased 500 aces northwest of Katy back in 2001 for 1400.00 per acre, the neighbor just sold his 300 acres for 30,000.00 per acre.
Around 1995 I looked at 100 acres just barely outside of Leander for 1k per acre. Today about 1 mile east of the property turned into a business road. Land is now going for stupid high like 200+k per acre on that road.

I only remember because I had just been married and told my wife we could buy the land and suffer but eventually have tons of money or buy a house and she chose house. I couldn't argue because it was probably the right choice but stings thinking about it.
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Old 04-19-2021, 10:28 PM   #45
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30K an acre?!
Yes sir, subdivisions are being built in the area.
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Old 04-19-2021, 11:00 PM   #46
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Same can be said for the stock market.
The difference is that most understand the ups and downs of the stock market, but some have no idea that the real estate market has ever gone down.
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Old 04-19-2021, 11:03 PM   #47
Burnadell
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: White Oak
Hunt In: Bee County
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rubi513 View Post
*too.

Property in Centerville was averaging 5k an acre 3 years ago. Itís over 10k now.
Ridiculous...
Dang it! You got me there. Good catch!
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Old 04-19-2021, 11:24 PM   #48
Tony Pic
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Texas and NYS
Hunt In: The Picarosas North and South, Kerrville, Mountain Home and Harper
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I have a raw vacant 6.5 ac piece in Harper that i must get a phone call a week or a letter asking me to sell. I paid $7500 per and have been offered and refused 100k.
This is on less than ten years my property value has doubled. Hill Country real estate is on fire.
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Old 04-19-2021, 11:24 PM   #49
Burnadell
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Location: White Oak
Hunt In: Bee County
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Originally Posted by M16 View Post
Just remember grasshopper that tax law changes had a big effect on those prices. When you could no longer deduct the interest expense real estate crashed. As long as people keep moving here real estate will be a great investment.
My memory is too muddled to remember tax law changes 36 years ago. Again, I am not trying to discourage real estate investment.


Quote:
Originally Posted by huntmaster View Post
you also have to remember the financial crap and other stuff that was going on in the 80's
You are correct, Billy. Our prime commercial lending rate hit 22% back in the 80's. Longterm mortgage rates were ~12% or so! I bought my first house (~2100 sq ft) in far north Dallas/Richardson for $31,500 in June, 1972; sold it when I moved to San Antonio 8 years later (June, 1980) for $90,000. I liked inflation at that point. That house is now appraised for tax purposes by DCAD at $340,000.
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Old 04-20-2021, 07:44 AM   #50
Tuffbroadhead
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Location: Weatherford.....
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We bought in 2001 at 2000.00 and acre just outside of Weatherford, Tx, its now selling for 20,000 an acre.
We just bought another another place in Oklahoma at 1400.00 and acre appraises for double already with a few simple improvements, Electric, roads, Etc with plans to buy several more properties that will be coming available in the near future with a new 30x50 barn going up as well as house.

Last edited by Tuffbroadhead; 04-20-2021 at 07:46 AM.
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