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Old 11-25-2022, 12:25 PM   #1
tpack
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What are you seeing in your area? Lots of homes for sale over 60 days on Zillow and Trulia where I live. Lots of Reduced homes from 25 to 50 thousand off the original price and still not selling. Lots of uncertainty going forward with rising interest rates. Texas may better off than the rest of the country for now, but that will not last forever. Still seeing a lot of spec homes being built which surprises me. Our builder we used 5 years ago probably has 20+ house completed or in progress right now. When is this train going to run out of gas??


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Old 11-25-2022, 12:27 PM   #2
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20+ spec homes? That’s pretty bold.
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Old 11-25-2022, 12:30 PM   #3
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20+ spec homes? Thatís pretty bold.
Conroe & Huntsville are loaded with spec homes. They are still way overpriced but dropping weekly. bad time to be a homebuilder here pretty soon.
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Old 11-25-2022, 12:53 PM   #4
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20+ spec homes? Thatís pretty bold.
They are in Granbury and surrounding areas. Not all in one town.
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Old 11-25-2022, 01:04 PM   #5
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What are you seeing in your area? Lots of homes for sale over 60 days on Zillow and Trulia where I live. Lots of Reduced homes from 25 to 50 thousand off the original price and still not selling. Lots of uncertainty going forward with rising interest rates. Texas may better off than the rest of the country for now, but that will not last forever. Still seeing a lot of spec homes being built which surprises me. Our builder we used 5 years ago probably has 20+ house completed or in progress right now. When is this train going to run out of gas??


3 Reasons Home Prices Will Fall By 50%...Or More - YouTube
Some builders aggressively marked up margins and are coming off quite a bit. Not all though. The difference between now and the last crash is prices arenít artificially high because of demand. They are high because of material costs. I know of several builders whose margins didnít change but obviously the volume did through the boom. However, there were plenty who marked their homes up a ton and those are going to be the ones who are hurting most.
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Old 11-25-2022, 01:34 PM   #6
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Seems to be slowing down
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Old 11-25-2022, 01:37 PM   #7
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Some builders aggressively marked up margins and are coming off quite a bit. Not all though. The difference between now and the last crash is prices arenít artificially high because of demand. They are high because of material costs. I know of several builders whose margins didnít change but obviously the volume did through the boom. However, there were plenty who marked their homes up a ton and those are going to be the ones who are hurting most.
Demand and lack of supply of labor have driven prices up. Materials are coming back down. Finding good crews cost a lot right now. With interest rates climbing high a lack of demand on the short supply of labor will help ease prices.
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Old 11-25-2022, 04:10 PM   #8
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Gonna go look at a house Tuesday. I’m liking the market now more than I did six months ago. If this house ain’t the one we will probably wait till January when it’s normally slow and see what we can come up with. But there are a lot of houses sitting and plenty marking down there prices.
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Old 11-25-2022, 04:14 PM   #9
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My area has slowed with listings, but there are still some selling. I am seeing price drops too. Here is a thread from last year

https://discussions.texasbowhunter.c...ghlight=estate
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Old 11-25-2022, 08:52 PM   #10
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Got a buddy in the RE business, buying larger plots and selling smaller ones---he hasn't bought a thing in 3 years. Says paying $8-10K an acre that is worth $2-3K is just plain stupid.
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Old 11-25-2022, 09:00 PM   #11
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We close on our house on Tuesday. We definitely were way below the asking price, and low enough our mortgage company didn't require an appraisal.

We weren't in a rush and didn't get attached to anything, which helps a lot. There are definitely deals to be had if you have patience.
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Old 11-25-2022, 10:47 PM   #12
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Train is out of gas already. it’s just coasting to a stop. Interest rates cant go that high and not kill it.
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Old 11-25-2022, 10:53 PM   #13
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Market has definitely slowed - but that’s all it could do from what we were seeing. Didn’t see too many offers well below asking price a few years ago. Now it’s fairly common.
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Old 11-25-2022, 10:54 PM   #14
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We sold at the end of July. Just in time. Living in a small cabin and about to start a home build. Good times and bad I guess. But life is short.

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Old 11-25-2022, 11:04 PM   #15
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You will begin to see a shift in home sizes. There is still a shortage of houses but most families can’t afford 300-400k homes at 7plus %, not to mention the taxes. The market will adjust by adjusting the home sizes. Instead of 2600-3000 sq ft we will begin to see 1600-2000 sq ft homes be the norm again.
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Old 11-25-2022, 11:24 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by PEC View Post
You will begin to see a shift in home sizes. There is still a shortage of houses but most families can’t afford 300-400k homes at 7plus %, not to mention the taxes. The market will adjust by adjusting the home sizes. Instead of 2600-3000 sq ft we will begin to see 1600-2000 sq ft homes be the norm again.

People can’t live in 1600square ft without killing each other. My gf and I are in the market for something different but we are going to watch and see how far can things slide down hill and hope we find someone in a bind that needs to sell.

Last edited by Spiderpig1776; 11-25-2022 at 11:27 PM.
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Old 11-26-2022, 06:18 AM   #17
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We have lived and raised 2 kids in a 1200 ft home for almost 40 yrs . Saved money through the years by doing it and now own a nice ranch with what we saved. It can be done, just have to decide what is more important!
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Old 11-26-2022, 07:21 AM   #18
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I never had a mortgage under 8%, and we survived. Lots of folks had the opportunity to buy a lot of house when the interest rates were so low. That window of opportunity has closed. It is a market shock that will take a while for buyers to adjust to the new reality of what they can afford versus what their friends bought last year. It wouldn't bother me to see a price reduction of at least twenty-five percent. Property taxes need to come down and the only way for that to happen is for values to come down.
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Old 11-26-2022, 08:07 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by ∆theling View Post
Demand and lack of supply of labor have driven prices up. Materials are coming back down. Finding good crews cost a lot right now. With interest rates climbing high a lack of demand on the short supply of labor will help ease prices.
Agreed. I was referring to sub April-May when we started to initially see the slow down. I think labor coming down is definitely what we see a lot more of now that crews are going to start running low on work.
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Old 11-26-2022, 08:29 AM   #20
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People canít live in 1600square ft without killing each other. My gf and I are in the market for something different but we are going to watch and see how far can things slide down hill and hope we find someone in a bind that needs to sell.
I grew up in a 1600 square foot house with 4 people and a dog and two birds and some fish. Itís fine. People are spoiled as hell these days.
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Old 11-26-2022, 08:29 AM   #21
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We have lived and raised 2 kids in a 1200 ft home for almost 40 yrs . Saved money through the years by doing it and now own a nice ranch with what we saved. It can be done, just have to decide what is more important!
This right here.
We raised 3 boys in a smaller house than that.
Know we have 3 ranches and a house too big for me and the wife.
We worked hard and saved for a lot of years.
You have to be able to distinguish between a want and a need.
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Old 11-26-2022, 08:31 AM   #22
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I never had a mortgage under 8%, and we survived. Lots of folks had the opportunity to buy a lot of house when the interest rates were so low. That window of opportunity has closed. It is a market shock that will take a while for buyers to adjust to the new reality of what they can afford versus what their friends bought last year. It wouldn't bother me to see a price reduction of at least twenty-five percent. Property taxes need to come down and the only way for that to happen is for values to come down.
Very true, definitely sticker shock for some of the younger buyers. Our first house was 8 1/2 percent back in 1979 and we assumed that loan. That was a time when rates were in the mid teens and many folks started just walking away. We have gotten so use to lower rates that even 6 percent seems absurd.

As mentioned, if people want to buy they need to either wait to buy larger, downsize their expectations, or overbuy and get into a bind. My wife and I went up in size over our lives but now are on the downside again. We are currently in the process of building a 1400 sq ft house that can be paid for when complete. We sold during the summer at a time that was still profitable but slowed pretty quickly after that. There isn't a single template for how all the different markets reaction to the rising rates and pricing. Where we are building, the market is still strong and most are paying cash for their builds. Labor costs in the area thus far are remaining stable due to this fact. We went back and forth about buying on the ground but prices haven't dropped much where we want to live so building was our option. That is subject to change in the next year however though inventory still remains low.

Anyone contemplating a move should navigate carefully. Best of luck folks.
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Old 11-26-2022, 08:33 AM   #23
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We have lived and raised 2 kids in a 1200 ft home for almost 40 yrs . Saved money through the years by doing it and now own a nice ranch with what we saved. It can be done, just have to decide what is more important!
Thatís the approach I used! My kids felt our small house in a great s/d was child abuse. Now they are out of college and debt free, I hope my ďconservativeĒ nature rubbed off.

BP
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Old 11-26-2022, 08:34 AM   #24
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Yea my timing sucks. We have had two showings in first four weeks being on the market. Have reduced price once but not going lower. Will sit on it if we need to. That being said, we knew our house would take a unique buyer. Not lots of folks wanting/can afford a 4 bedroom 3100 sq ft with 5 acres in the country.
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Old 11-26-2022, 08:45 AM   #25
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Not a huge supply of spec homes in my area, but there is an abundance of high density, multi-family building going on. As these fill up, the impact on traffic gets worse.
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Old 11-26-2022, 09:08 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Spiderpig1776 View Post
People canít live in 1600square ft without killing each other. My gf and I are in the market for something different but we are going to watch and see how far can things slide down hill and hope we find someone in a bind that needs to sell.
Meh, raised 4 kids in 1600sf house that I built myself for under $50k in 1999. But then again Im not the "keep up with the joneses" type
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Old 11-26-2022, 09:12 AM   #27
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Houses with modest acreage Brewster Co aren’t budging. Plan on moving in June and prices haven’t dropped much if any at all.
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Old 11-26-2022, 09:15 AM   #28
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You will begin to see a shift in home sizes. There is still a shortage of houses but most families canít afford 300-400k homes at 7plus %, not to mention the taxes. The market will adjust by adjusting the home sizes. Instead of 2600-3000 sq ft we will begin to see 1600-2000 sq ft homes be the norm again.

Uhh, that the sized house being built around me and selling for your 300-400k asking. Granted they are staying on the market longer at this point.

One just up the road from me just sold. 3/2.5 @1900sqft on 1 acre. Sold for 350k. The only difference it has over mine is 100sqft in the half bath and 2years newer. 124k difference.
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Old 11-26-2022, 09:17 AM   #29
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Meh, raised 4 kids in 1600sf house that I built myself for under $50k in 1999. But then again Im not the "keep up with the joneses" type
In 1983 I signed a contract on a new house, and the interest rate started at 9.5 percent. Within 4 years it would have been set at 13.5 percent. That was the going rate during just before the end of the oil boom. I ended up cancelling the contract before moving in. I then assumed someone's mortgage at 5.5 percent.

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Old 11-26-2022, 09:26 AM   #30
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People canít live in 1600square ft without killing each other. My gf and I are in the market for something different but we are going to watch and see how far can things slide down hill and hope we find someone in a bind that needs to sell.
Sorry but my wife and I have lived in a 980 sq ft bungalow for almost 30. It can be done.
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Old 11-26-2022, 09:28 AM   #31
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In 1983 I signed a contract on a new house, and the interest rate started at 9.5 percent. Within 4 years it would have been set at 13.5 percent. That was the going rate during just before the end of the oil boom. I ended up cancelling the contract before moving in. I then assumed someone's mortgage at 5.5 percent.

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If I remember right I was approved for $125k @ 8% in 1999. Just couldnt accept that kind of debt. Was insane to me. Thats why I bought my land and built the house myself. At this point if I sold I would have gotten PAID $1400/mo for living here the last 22yrs.

I think I made the right decision
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Old 11-26-2022, 09:45 AM   #32
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Just finished paying for the house nearly a year ago. Bought a 1527sq/ft home for $99K. Worth $250-65K now. Raised/raising two kids there(one is still in middle school and other in A&M). Living within means means a lot. I teach biology at a high school, so I must play my hand well.
I could have never done that at 7% interest. Young teachers at my school can only rent and more and more are leaving because of it. Scares me for my students who need competent, professional instructors.


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Old 11-26-2022, 10:40 AM   #33
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We sold at the end of July. Just in time. Living in a small cabin and about to start a home build. Good times and bad I guess. But life is short.

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Well done Mr Chew. I believe you timed it darn near perfectly. How many days left until retirement? I know it has to be really close now.
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Old 11-26-2022, 11:06 AM   #34
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Well done Mr Chew. I believe you timed it darn near perfectly. How many days left until retirement? I know it has to be really close now.
Thanks Richard. I would say it's on the near horizon.

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Old 11-26-2022, 11:08 AM   #35
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The Granbury area already has some builder that are building 1100-1700 sq. ft. spec homes. Have been seeing the trend for a while now. None being built that small 5 years ago. Going to be hard to refinance when rates do come down if homes are worth 10-20 % less.

https://www.zillow.com/granbury-tx/4...oom%22%3A11%7D
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Old 11-26-2022, 11:44 AM   #36
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I just finished and listed 3 homes in Trenton, Tx a few weeks ago. Each home is on 2 acre lots.

Feel free to share.
Iíll even discount for supporting TBH memberís!


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Old 11-26-2022, 11:52 AM   #37
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From what I’ve seen around me land started sitting still about 3 months ago. There are still properties that were listed around that time frame that have not sold! Before that, as soon as one was listed there were 5-6 people in a bidding war and contracted out within 3-4 days. IMHO this crazy market is going to drop back down to the true values.
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Old 11-26-2022, 12:09 PM   #38
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People can’t live in 1600square ft without killing each other. My gf and I are in the market for something different but we are going to watch and see how far can things slide down hill and hope we find someone in a bind that needs to sell.
New house on 14 acres just a bit over 1600 square ft just sold for $925,000 next to me. Collinsville. Houses here seem to be selling fast this one went on market and closed within 60 days. Another 1 mile away sold immediately on 4 acres not sure what he priced it at but gonna ask when I see him. 100 acres across from me on market for $37,500 per acre now that is insane if he gets it
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Old 11-26-2022, 12:21 PM   #39
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I’m south east of San Antonio. Been in the market looking for a home for a little over a year now, but haven’t found anything at a price I want to pay yet. Prices around here are SLOWLY coming down, but they are still high. $70k for an acre lot is still the going rate. $200k for an old home that needs major work is still the norm. $300k+ is still the going rate for a brand new basic home that was poorly constructed and still has issues.



For the guy that said you need 1600+ square feet to not be down each other’s throats, either you aren’t in a good relationship or you are spoiled. My family and I have been living for the past year in just over 300 square feet. 3 of us, plus a dog, and a cat, and a hamster! When you live in a truly tiny place, you realize what your true needs are, and what are actually just wants. We used to think we needed 2000+ square feet. Now our favorite house floor plan is just 1,300 square feet and paying substantially more for that 2000+ square feet house now just looks like a waste of money.
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Old 11-26-2022, 12:54 PM   #40
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Iím south east of San Antonio. Been in the market looking for a home for a little over a year now, but havenít found anything at a price I want to pay yet. Prices around here are SLOWLY coming down, but they are still high. $70k for an acre lot is still the going rate. $200k for an old home that needs major work is still the norm. $300k+ is still the going rate for a brand new basic home that was poorly constructed and still has issues.



For the guy that said you need 1600+ square feet to not be down each otherís throats, either you arenít in a good relationship or you are spoiled. My family and I have been living for the past year in just over 300 square feet. 3 of us, plus a dog, and a cat, and a hamster! When you live in a truly tiny place, you realize what your true needs are, and what are actually just wants. We used to think we needed 2000+ square feet. Now our favorite house floor plan is just 1,300 square feet and paying substantially more for that 2000+ square feet house now just looks like a waste of money.



Iím very spoiled I grew up in a 7k square ft house and the houses Iíve bought since are all 2500 or so. I get we donít have to have the space but I definitely want elbow room. I donít have to keep up with any I just grew up with nice stuff so Iíll continue to work extra hard so I can continue to have those things.
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Old 11-26-2022, 01:04 PM   #41
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Still seeing homes in our area sell decent but prices have dropped. Im in Grayson Co and with TI bringing their corporate HQ to Sherman/Denison, the population in Sherman is set to double in 5 years. Demand will still be here though prices may not be the 2020/2021 variety anymore. I went full blown Dave Ramsey for 5 years with the wife and paid off my student debt from vet school. We were living in a 1400 sq ft 112 year old victorian that I had no desire to work on anymore. Told my wife we needed to start focusing on investment. Told her we could have land or the stock market. She chose land. We bought 15 acres and a 50 year old 2800 sq ft ranch style home with a view in southern Grayson. At that time acreage around us was selling for $28K/acre. Even in the current decreasing market I'm seeing it move for $65K-$$85K per acre. So we're still up for our area, problem our realtor is having with our place is that there are no comps. Tracks of land with a home like ours just don't exist. Only question that remains is where the heck do you go lol. I bought a vacant lot in 2018 and I'm currently working to move it. Probably still double our money but it won't be the triple we were hoping for. I've got 4 acres commercial well located on a major thoroughfare (was going to build a vet clinic but not at these construction prices I won't) and I've now put it on the market. Probably won't see a great return there but we'll see something.

Markets definitely correcting but I'm starting to see information that supports a mortgage rate decrease in January so things may start to fire up again. I wouldn't mind seeing prices drop a little more, I'd like to pick up a few rentals.

Like anything else, just gotta ride the waves. I doubt we ever see anything like 2020/2021 again.
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Old 11-26-2022, 01:09 PM   #42
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Still seeing homes in our area sell decent but prices have dropped. Im in Grayson Co and with TI bringing their corporate HQ to Sherman/Denison, the population in Sherman is set to double in 5 years. Demand will still be here though prices may not be the 2020/2021 variety anymore. I went full blown Dave Ramsey for 5 years with the wife and paid off my student debt from vet school. We were living in a 1400 sq ft 112 year old victorian that I had no desire to work on anymore. Told my wife we needed to start focusing on investment. Told her we could have land or the stock market. She chose land. We bought 15 acres and a 50 year old 2800 sq ft ranch style home with a view in southern Grayson. At that time acreage around us was selling for $28K/acre. Even in the current decreasing market I'm seeing it move for $65K-$$85K per acre. So we're still up for our area, problem our realtor is having with our place is that there are no comps. Tracks of land with a home like ours just don't exist. Only question that remains is where the heck do you go lol. I bought a vacant lot in 2018 and I'm currently working to move it. Probably still double our money but it won't be the triple we were hoping for. I've got 4 acres commercial well located on a major thoroughfare (was going to build a vet clinic but not at these construction prices I won't) and I've now put it on the market. Probably won't see a great return there but we'll see something.

Markets definitely correcting but I'm starting to see information that supports a mortgage rate decrease in January so things may start to fire up again. I wouldn't mind seeing prices drop a little more, I'd like to pick up a few rentals.

Like anything else, just gotta ride the waves. I doubt we ever see anything like 2020/2021 again.

Do you mind sharing the info on the things you have listed? Iím interested. Thanks in advance.


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Old 11-26-2022, 01:32 PM   #43
Cookiemonster1
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Flyway what are you seeing that makes you think rates will go down in January?
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Old 11-26-2022, 01:39 PM   #44
Kong
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We sold 750 acres in May in under 3 days and the buyer was planning to sub divide it down into 10-20 acres plots and they were working on it within 2 weeks of closing which I thought was insane. I noticed today they’ve stopped working on it and all the equipments gone so I’m thinking they’ve abandoned the plan with everything slowing down. Maybe I can buy it back again in a few months..

I was getting calls every day from random people asking to buy a certain piece of property and it’s down to 1 or 2 currently so it’s pretty obvious things are tightening up now which concerns me for the future. Time will tell I guess,,,
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Old 11-26-2022, 01:46 PM   #45
miket
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Originally Posted by Kong View Post
We sold 750 acres in May in under 3 days and the buyer was planning to sub divide it down into 10-20 acres plots and they were working on it within 2 weeks of closing which I thought was insane. I noticed today they’ve stopped working on it and all the equipments gone so I’m thinking they’ve abandoned the plan with everything slowing down. Maybe I can buy it back again in a few months..

I was getting calls every day from random people asking to buy a certain piece of property and it’s down to 1 or 2 currently so it’s pretty obvious things are tightening up now which concerns me for the future. Time will tell I guess,,,
The 23ac next to me was split and sold a year or so ago, they got busy clearing it immediately, then it all stopped. Havent seen them all summer. I sent a text and told them if they decided to sell, to please contact me first. I doubt they will, but something definitely put everything on hold.

Last edited by miket; 11-26-2022 at 02:04 PM. Reason: Edited "see" to "sell"
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Old 11-26-2022, 02:25 PM   #46
RLUM
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Originally Posted by Cookiemonster1 View Post
Flyway what are you seeing that makes you think rates will go down in January?
My wife is a branch manager for a mortgage company and she is saying the same thing.
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Old 11-26-2022, 02:40 PM   #47
Cookiemonster1
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Good to hear RLUM
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Old 11-26-2022, 02:47 PM   #48
91cavgt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kong View Post
We sold 750 acres in May in under 3 days and the buyer was planning to sub divide it down into 10-20 acres plots and they were working on it within 2 weeks of closing which I thought was insane. I noticed today theyíve stopped working on it and all the equipments gone so Iím thinking theyíve abandoned the plan with everything slowing down. Maybe I can buy it back again in a few months..

I was getting calls every day from random people asking to buy a certain piece of property and itís down to 1 or 2 currently so itís pretty obvious things are tightening up now which concerns me for the future. Time will tell I guess,,,


DR Horton has a neighborhood they have been building on to for a couple of years here. In early summer they finished building houses on one branch. The newest branch has all the roads, sidewalks, water, electricity, and sewer infrastructure in place and ready for new houses to be built. However they havenít started building any of the 50+ houses in this new area. Only 1 house in the older area remains vacant and unsold despite having been finished 5 months ago!


Demand has most certainly dropped, but prices really havenít followed suit.
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Old 11-26-2022, 02:48 PM   #49
whitetailtrail
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1600-2000 sq ft selling for 350-400K is the norm here in Melissa. Houses are seeing extended listing times and some price drops but nothing yet that levels out affordability at current rates
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Old 11-26-2022, 02:58 PM   #50
Bucknaked
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Originally Posted by miket View Post
The 23ac next to me was split and sold a year or so ago, they got busy clearing it immediately, then it all stopped. Havent seen them all summer. I sent a text and told them if they decided to sell, to please contact me first. I doubt they will, but something definitely put everything on hold.
I think you may have a very good chance at it! There have been billions of **** poor real estate purchases in the last 2 yrs! Theyíll be scrambling for money!
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