Financial advisors - CPI - FED

[RiverRat1]

So CPI came in showing higher than expected inflation over 9%

But oil has been going down fast over the last 1-3 weeks. We already see housing cracking and going much lower also.

Is inflation some beast that once it gets going can't be stopped? I guess I just don't understand as it seems if they just stopped raising rates after the last couple big raises inflation would slow down.

But instead it appears they will raise again this month another 75 and markets are predicting in Sept another big raise.

Any insight on this topic?

[scott1022]

Just a random attempt to make sense of it... Maybe everyone is trying to get one last push on price increases while they can? A "get it while you can" mentality.

[ram04]

Man the more i look at it, it seems to me like we should end up pretty close to where we were at the end of 2019 before the Covid crash and lock down. It's like a wave going through the world, lock downs/loss of supply. Fed injects trillions and lower interest rates, supply still low demand sky rockets, prices of assets sky rocket. Interest rates go up liquidity dries up demand slows as supplies try and catch up which should bring prices back down.

The more demand declines and people use up what savings or debt they have left supplies will catch up, inflation could very well crash and deflation could set in. I know a lot of people refinanced assets to buy up summer homes that could be in a huge pickle if asset prices fall back to where they were three years ago. I'm kind of hoping for a major correction in asset prices. My taxes went up on my house and it's the same house I lived in before Covid with no changes lol.

[HogHunter34]

I wish I had that crystal ball. Consumer spending will slow typically & we are seeing it with current housing market. But keen investors should capitalize long term for the right market deals & strategic investing at lower price per share with market conditions

[Pedernal]

Obviously we are in uncharted waters. The amount of money that was “given out” and the shameless way folks would stayed on unemployment during the Covid lock downs has created an even more entitlement type mentality that makes for huge problems.

The fact that most goods are produced over seas is about to again demonstrate why that is such a bad idea. The fact we have an administration colluding with other major countries in a war against fossil fuels is an even greater threat.

Buckle up folks we are in for a ride.

[texasdeerhunter]

Pretty sure i am on record somewhere saying I didn’t think the Fed would raise rates like they have. I’m still surprised, and I fully expect them to raise them again. Although I don’t think that is the right decision. We are barreling towards a recession, and in fact are already in a recession IMO. But the Fed doesn’t care it seems. All they are focused on is the inflation number. The reason for the inflation is the $6 trillion they injected into the economy along with supply shortages. Fix the supply shortages and then you fix the runaway inflation IMO. Not to keep raising rates

[ram04]

Pretty sure i am on record somewhere saying I didn’t think the Fed would raise rates like they have. I’m still surprised, and I fully expect them to raise them again. Although I don’t think that is the right decision. We are barreling towards a recession, and in fact are already in a recession IMO. But the Fed doesn’t care it seems. All they are focused on is the inflation number. The reason for the inflation is the $6 trillion they injected into the economy along with supply shortages. Fix the supply shortages and then you fix the runaway inflation IMO. Not to keep raising rates

That's the only bullet they have is to kill demand by reducing liquidity and raise interest rates. The supply chain is still terrible, I deal with it everyday. Job openings are still sky high, until people have to come back to work supply will be low. Until China gets back to work supply will be low. Until environmentalist get out of the way of more energy production supply will be low. So with that you have to kill demand or you will have inflation. Everything I said before is without an increase in the conflict with Russia or China over Taiwan.

[texasdeerhunter]

That's the only bullet they have is to kill demand by reducing liquidity and raise interest rates. The supply chain is still terrible, I deal with it everyday. Job openings are still sky high, until people have to come back to work supply will be low. Until China gets back to work supply will be low. Until environmentalist get out of the way of more energy production supply will be low. So with that you have to kill demand or you will have inflation. Everything I said before is without an increase in the conflict with Russia or China over Taiwan.

I agree with you. And that’s why I have such a negative outlook right now. Basic demand for certain goods will always be there, the population needs certain items for sustainability. I think most of the luxury items have a much lower demand the last three months. So to me, just the basic things needed for every day living will always be there and they still can’t get a grip on inflation, even after cutting out the higher demand for luxury items. We have stagflation caused by a limited supply. It’s a terrible combination. Regardless of your political affiliation, this administration has shown they have no idea how to handle it. And we’ve got 2 more years of the same policies and mindset

[ram04]

I agree with you. And that’s why I have such a negative outlook right now. Basic demand for certain goods will always be there, the population needs certain items for sustainability. I think most of the luxury items have a much lower demand the last three months. So to me, just the basic things needed for every day living will always be there and they still can’t get a grip on inflation, even after cutting out the higher demand for luxury items. We have stagflation caused by a limited supply. It’s a terrible combination. Regardless of your political affiliation, this administration has shown they have no idea how to handle it. And we’ve got 2 more years of the same policies and mindset

agree 100% and can be argued the current admin. is doing everything they can to keep growth down on purpose because they think the environment will end if humans flourish.

[HogHunter34]

agree 100% and can be argued the current admin. is doing everything they can to keep growth down on purpose because they think the environment will end if humans flourish.

And yet they want to protect & preserve the environment from emissions, energy conservation, waste reduction, protected species ….oh the irony

[ram04]

And yet they want to protect & preserve the environment from emissions, energy conservation, waste reduction, protected species ….oh the irony

Could possibly be the dumbest most least thought out strategy in human history lol unless of course you think humans are the cause.

[topshot]

And yet they want to protect & preserve the environment from emissions, energy conservation, waste reduction, protected species ….oh the irony

Its about creating a new industry and millions of jobs - trillions of dollars is being injected through 2050 and beyond, which will sustain an entire generation of workers, creating countless millionaires as well as some billionaires in the process.

There are so many mechanisms involved in moving to renewable energy resources; policy is being driven by those with money (corporations & wall street). WS is tired of O&G growth/profits and sees an opportunity to revolutionize the way we source energy and has found a message that aligns with the creation of a new industry.

Look back at the market cap of most the EV companies as of last summer - larger than GM, F, and almost all other car companies that rely on CF engines despite the lack of profitability and actual production numbers. Wall Street is throwing silly amounts of money at these companies as incentive to push industry in a whole new direction.

[ram04]

Its about creating a new industry and millions of jobs - trillions of dollars is being injected through 2050 and beyond, which will sustain an entire generation of workers, creating countless millionaires as well as some billionaires in the process.

There are so many mechanisms involved in moving to renewable energy resources; policy is being driven by those with money (corporations & wall street). WS is tired of O&G growth/profits and sees an opportunity to revolutionize the way we source energy and has found a message that aligns with the creation of a new industry.

Look back at the market cap of most the EV companies as of last summer - larger than GM, F, and almost all other car companies that rely on CF engines despite the lack of profitability and actual production numbers. Wall Street is throwing silly amounts of money at these companies as incentive to push industry in a whole new direction.

No one is against the transition, we are against lowering the standard of living for normal people around the world by reducing energy before renewables are able to fill the gaps. Without O&G you wont have the energy to build the infrastructure for the EV industry your calling for. Unless of course your open up Nuclear wide open.

[rockyraider]

"Obviously we are in uncharted waters. The amount of money that was “given out” and the shameless way folks would stayed on unemployment during the Covid lock downs has created an even more entitlement type mentality that makes for huge problems.

The fact that most goods are produced over seas is about to again demonstrate why that is such a bad idea. The fact we have an administration colluding with other major countries in a war against fossil fuels is an even greater threat.

Buckle up folks we are in for a ride."

"That's the only bullet they have is to kill demand by reducing liquidity and raise interest rates. The supply chain is still terrible, I deal with it everyday. Job openings are still sky high, until people have to come back to work supply will be low. Until China gets back to work supply will be low. Until environmentalist get out of the way of more energy production supply will be low. So with that you have to kill demand or you will have inflation. Everything I said before is without an increase in the conflict with Russia or China over Taiwan."

I agree with all of this. I was reading an article yesterday where an economist was saying that there is no quick fix for inflation and once it sets in it is very difficult to tame it and then for it to work itself out of an economy. His point was that there is no quick fix and this will likely be a multi-year, painful process for the American people. We all know economist are like everyone else, they all have an opinion and who knows who's closest to being correct. I do believe that we are in for a long, tough couple years ahead of us. Way, way too many things are very wrong with our country at this point and there is zero doubt that the Democrats are running us off the cliff at full speed.

[ram04]

"Obviously we are in uncharted waters. The amount of money that was “given out” and the shameless way folks would stayed on unemployment during the Covid lock downs has created an even more entitlement type mentality that makes for huge problems.

The fact that most goods are produced over seas is about to again demonstrate why that is such a bad idea. The fact we have an administration colluding with other major countries in a war against fossil fuels is an even greater threat.

Buckle up folks we are in for a ride."

"That's the only bullet they have is to kill demand by reducing liquidity and raise interest rates. The supply chain is still terrible, I deal with it everyday. Job openings are still sky high, until people have to come back to work supply will be low. Until China gets back to work supply will be low. Until environmentalist get out of the way of more energy production supply will be low. So with that you have to kill demand or you will have inflation. Everything I said before is without an increase in the conflict with Russia or China over Taiwan."

I agree with all of this. I was reading an article yesterday where an economist was saying that there is no quick fix for inflation and once it sets in it is very difficult to tame it and then for it to work itself out of an economy. His point was that there is no quick fix and this will likely be a multi-year, painful process for the American people. We all know economist are like everyone else, they all have an opinion and who knows who's closest to being correct. I do believe that we are in for a long, tough couple years ahead of us. Way, way too many things are very wrong with our country at this point and there is zero doubt that the Democrats are running us off the cliff at full speed.

But if demand is killed enough where is it is more in line with supply inflation will come down. The only problem with that obviously is demand is down because no one can afford to do anything or our supplies are very low which lowers our standard of living. This is not as good as increasing supply, but we could actually see a sharp decrease in inflation on many goods we buy in the near future. This is why it's a good idea to get as much cash as you can and wait, you might find some great deals.