Supply and Demand: Texas Hunting Industry

[yotethumper]

Had a discussion with my grandfather, father, and uncles over Thanksgiving. My grandfather used to lease some of his ranch land to hunters in the 70s. My uncles hunted occasionally in the 80s and 90s. My father isn't a hunter at all. It was interesting to get all of their perspectives on current "market rates" for leases and day hunts.

The one question we all discussed was, when will the industry hit its peak? Specifically, whitetail hunts. Will hunting prices rise or will they start to gradually reduce until they plateau at a certain point?

The younger generation is not showing as much interest in the outdoors but hunting ranches are popping up everywhere. When will we see supply and demand play out?

[jerp]

I think you are right - the only thing that has the potential to cause lease prices to fall is a drop in demand from fewer hunters in the next generation. Over the last 20 years every time there is a recession or a big downturn in the oil patch we always think lease prices will fall but it never seems to happen. The rate of increase may slow but apparently - for now - there are enough hunters with deep pockets to keep prices stable if not increasing

[yotethumper]

I think you are right - the only thing that has the potential to cause lease prices to fall is a drop in demand from fewer hunters in the next generation. Over the last 20 years every time there is a recession or a big downturn in the oil patch we always think lease prices will fall but it never seems to happen. The rate of increase may slow but apparently - for now - there are enough hunters with deep pockets to keep prices stable if not increasing

That is a great point. I guess essentially the hunting industry is mainly supported by the top income brackets. If you want to hunt, you have to pay to play.

[forced-2-work]

That is a very interesting topic. Almost like the housing market....... when is it going to drop so I can build a house at reasonable price for a middle class family and it not cost me $500k. Lease prices are the same in my opinion.... it will hit a peak and drop a bit eventually. Supply and demand is the exact way to describe it. Personally it is sad to see some lease prices and how outrageous they are

[44mAG]

On one hand, you have less hunters seeking out places to hunt, but on the other hand, large tracks of land are disappearing due to everything being split up.

I think the smaller demand is being balanced by the smaller available places to lease.

[Dirtymike]

I dont see younger people not interested in the outdoors. I see they are MORE interested because they have not gotten to experience it.

I dont see hunting declining or prices going down. Every newbie i met got hooked on their first hunt. And i am in the Austin area with all the skinny jean wearing kids.

[be12hunt]

On one hand, you have less hunters seeking out places to hunt, but on the other hand, large tracks of land are disappearing due to everything being split up.

I think the smaller demand is being balanced by the smaller available places to lease.

This is exactly my thought.
I think another big shift that is going to create less demand for leases are the HF ranch hunts. It is becoming easier and more financially affordable for people to pay per hunt compared to keeping lease rights and expenses year round.

[Throwin Darts]

The price to purchase a large tract of land is so high these days that it really doesn't make sense to buy a ranch and then turn around and lease it out because the lease income will be peanuts compared to what you're spending on the place.

As large tracts are broken up through passing down to the next generation I bet you see less and less land available for lease. I'd bet that the cost of a hunting lease continues to go up in perpetuity.

Now as far as "hunting ranches" go, if you're talking about a landowner popping up a fence on 300 acres and selling "hunts", I think we will see more and more of that because 1) its generally more accepted by a large part of the population that this canned hunt is somehow ok if you're having fun doing it and 2) a lot of people just want that grip and grin instagram photo rather than the experience of a hunt that they can very likely go home empty handed from and 3) large tracts will continue to be broken into smaller tracts and you can throw up a fence and sell hunts on a small tract.

[flywise]

You have decreasing numbers of younger hunters.....why?
1. It's getting more expensive every year.
2. More and more places have rules that have make it very hard to enjoy the hunt. I believe more and more people see a list of rules so strict that they would second and third guess every buck they see. The number of people willing to pay 2k for a lease and then be told they need permission to kill a particular buck, provide another 2k in feed, get ridiculed for not making a work weekend.

[WItoTX]

Hunting isn't declining in Texas. It's the east coast that loses hunters every year. From essentially Texas west, hunters on are on the increase.

OP, to answer your question, the economy is booming. Everyone has money, and everyone likes to spend that money on all sorts of stuff. Ford stopped selling cars in America, that's how good the economy is right now, everyone wants an SUV/truck. For hunting, that means selling more hunts, leasing more land, and purchasing more outdoor related equipment.

Until the economy craps out (Likely after Trump leaves in 2024, and if a D takes over), prices will likely stay high.

[canny]

Regarding the supply and demand curve on lease prices in the future I have no idea. I do think that if leases start to go down in price you will see and increase in number of hunters per acre per lease. A lot of landowners lease their land to cover their taxes and such and therefore still have a target number in mind that they want to get in total. So reduced prices would lead to increased spots to make it up.

[M16]

I believe a lot of hunting land that was for lease gets bought by someone who doesn't want to deal with hunters. They want the land to hunt for themselves and their families. I could easily lease my properties to 10+ people. I don't lease any of it cause I like hunting it myself. Most of it was leased before I bought it. Those hunters got displaced and they leasing pool got reduced.

[Ryan81]

This is exactly my thought.

I think another big shift that is going to create less demand for leases are the HF ranch hunts. It is becoming easier and more financially affordable for people to pay per hunt compared to keeping lease rights and expenses year round.

This. I hear it often that why spend $2k on a lease + fuel, corn, etc. when you can spend the same amount of money and shoot a nice HF deer.

Some people just want the satisfaction of putting their hands on a nice set of horns. I enjoy the work involved and having a place to hunt/fish/camp year round.


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[PondPopper]

Hunting prices will not decrease anytime soon here in Texas because there are people standing in line looking for places to hunt and someone is always willing to pay more than the last guy..
At the moment we pay WAAAY more than our little lease is worth but we continue to do so because we have a small, controlled group.. We deal with 0 drama and no idiots..
That being said I know my landowner has been offered more than we are paying(insane)which causes our price to increase about every 5 years..

[breederbuck33]

I think the first thing to go will be the small acreage HF places. It think we'll get to a point where the guys who do this loose interest. I have nothing against these places, but I think that it'll be the first thing to take a hit when the market starts to dwindle. I think most deer hunters need to truly feel as if they accomplished something to stay interested. After 5 or 6 years of going to a slam dunk deal it seems that people would loose that sense of accomplishment. I also could be wrong, because it could be a revolving cycle of people who are leaving leases and doing the HF deal as the HF guys are looking for leases. Very interesting topic for sure.