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Old 01-11-2022, 02:03 PM   #1
rut-ro
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Default 2022 weather predictions

Seen a post on tropical storm central string the south could be below freezing for several days middle to north me of January. Unfortunately, I tend to trust some of the weather experts here before the. What do the experts say? Should I go hoard all the pvc and pex in Houston ?
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:06 PM   #2
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Just had a buddy text something similar....below freezing temps 1/26 - 1/28. The model he sent is showing similar temps to February last year.
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:06 PM   #3
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This won’t end well
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:09 PM   #4
RUNNING BEAR
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LOW CONFIDENCE jumps out at me
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:09 PM   #5
Dale Moser
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I don't know anything about how "models" work, but will the ****ery from last February cause any recency bias with the models?
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:12 PM   #6
rut-ro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Moser View Post
I don't know anything about how "models" work, but will the ****ery from last February cause any recency bias with the models?
No clue. Thatís why I reached out here. I trust some of our amateur meteorologist over big media any day
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:14 PM   #7
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IMO the weathers going to do what the weathers going to do several weeks from know and trying to predict it is total BS that far out. I make my living off the weather and I watch it way closer than most and I’ll say weather predictions are less likely to happen than my wet dreams in reality so anything farther than a week is nothing more than total Horse Crap.
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:27 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale Moser View Post
I don't know anything about how "models" work, but will the ****ery from last February cause any recency bias with the models?
I don't think so, it just causes folks to watch the outliers/long range trends more. GFS has performed poorly past 5 days or so this winter from what I have read and this isn't the first time brutal cold has shown on the long range end of the forecast. That said, this time last year people discounted the crazy cold on the models but it verified, if not worse than the model. There is cold bottled up, with the potential to come down for sure.
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:34 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RUNNING BEAR View Post
LOW CONFIDENCE jumps out at me
LOL - That's all I will say.
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Old 01-11-2022, 02:40 PM   #10
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I bet its pretty hot in August. probably even september too
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Old 01-11-2022, 03:26 PM   #11
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Our guy says after Jan.20 for the artic outbreak and is warning of livestock concerns up here.

Let's see what you have on say Jan 25-26th.
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Old 01-11-2022, 03:29 PM   #12
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I bet its pretty hot in August. probably even september too
He seems sharp, i'll buy.

ac
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Old 01-11-2022, 03:49 PM   #13
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It was 23 here this morning. That’s below freezing .
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Old 01-11-2022, 04:34 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by bowhuntntxn View Post
I bet its pretty hot in August. probably even september too
Crap!!

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Old 01-11-2022, 04:38 PM   #15
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Probably outta fish as much as possible before then


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Old 01-11-2022, 05:08 PM   #16
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How will the tinfoil army spin this?
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Old 01-11-2022, 05:16 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kong View Post
IMO the weathers going to do what the weathers going to do several weeks from know and trying to predict it is total BS that far out. I make my living off the weather and I watch it way closer than most and Iíll say weather predictions are less likely to happen than my wet dreams in reality so anything farther than a week is nothing more than total Horse Crap.
Kong, you are King !
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Old 01-11-2022, 08:48 PM   #18
rut-ro
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How will the tinfoil army spin this?
Only way to stop the cold is to get vaxed and boosted !! Not really but probably.
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Old 01-11-2022, 08:55 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bowhuntntxn View Post
I bet its pretty hot in August. probably even september too
I knew this one would get the screen posting
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Old 01-11-2022, 09:19 PM   #20
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Looks like a lot of drama to me.
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Old 01-11-2022, 09:21 PM   #21
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Looks like a lot of drama to me.

PreachÖÖweather will do what it does!


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Old 01-11-2022, 09:21 PM   #22
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The pros donít predict out this far for a reason.
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Old 01-12-2022, 07:10 AM   #23
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GFS has already shifted, sending that arctic plunge east to the Ohio river valley. Anything could happen. But anyone holding onto the GFS as a model is silly at this point. It’s busted all season long
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Old 01-12-2022, 08:35 AM   #24
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I'm just happy we finally have some consistently cooler weather for a change. Going to try and get my daughter a whitetail the last weekend of the season.
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Old 01-12-2022, 09:03 AM   #25
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I was in lowes last week before that other front came. The amount of people buying pipe insulation was mind boggling.

I wanted to ask them if they just moved here or are they too stupid to have learned from any mistakes last year.
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Old 01-12-2022, 09:10 AM   #26
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Most of the models have a hard time dealing with the cold air. Six days out is the earliest I would start to trust them. With that being said, it’s January going into February anything can happen. I would be happy for a nice rainy stretch.
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Old 01-12-2022, 11:05 AM   #27
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i dont know about those models being very accurate, but i have noticed that if i plan to go hunt this weekend in Laredo for end of season, i had better take shorts and flip flops and plug in the AC unit in my blind. Every time this season, it has been hot. so thats how it works for me. it does get cold during the week when at work, but never when hunting >
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Old 01-12-2022, 11:21 AM   #28
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What’s the Euro model saying?
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Old 01-12-2022, 11:27 AM   #29
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Have a duck hunt booked for 1/25-1/26. Something terrible is bound to happen.
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Old 01-12-2022, 12:49 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RMW View Post
Whatís the Euro model saying?
RMW listen to this guy's weather podcast. He covers the models and what may happen to you all if the European model plays out. Watch the end especially for your impacts.

https://dayweatherpodcast.com/
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Old 01-12-2022, 08:46 PM   #31
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Hope that’s.wrong, we’ll be in Ft Worth showing cattle then. Don’t need it that freakin cold
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Old 01-12-2022, 08:52 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by fishfeeder01 View Post
i dont know about those models being very accurate, but i have noticed that if i plan to go hunt this weekend in Laredo for end of season, i had better take shorts and flip flops and plug in the AC unit in my blind. Every time this season, it has been hot. so thats how it works for me. it does get cold during the week when at work, but never when hunting >
Youíll be real comfy in shorts and flippies this weekend.
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Old 01-12-2022, 09:12 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wytex View Post
RMW listen to this guy's weather podcast. He covers the models and what may happen to you all if the European model plays out. Watch the end especially for your impacts.

https://dayweatherpodcast.com/
That was really interesting, probably have a better idea in 7-10 days
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Old 01-12-2022, 09:29 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishfeeder01 View Post
i dont know about those models being very accurate, but i have noticed that if i plan to go hunt this weekend in Laredo for end of season, i had better take shorts and flip flops and plug in the AC unit in my blind. Every time this season, it has been hot. so thats how it works for me. it does get cold during the week when at work, but never when hunting >
Whoa there. Forget the weather.
You have an air conditioner in your deer stand???

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Old 01-13-2022, 07:31 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kong View Post
IMO the weathers going to do what the weathers going to do several weeks from know and trying to predict it is total BS that far out. I make my living off the weather and I watch it way closer than most and Iíll say weather predictions are less likely to happen than my wet dreams in reality so anything farther than a week is nothing more than total Horse Crap.
How do you make your living off the weather?
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Old 01-13-2022, 08:53 AM   #36
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How do you make your living off the weather?
Natural gas trader maybe?
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Old 01-13-2022, 10:42 AM   #37
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How do you make your living off the weather?
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtp View Post
Natural gas trader maybe?

farmer!
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Old 01-13-2022, 11:26 AM   #38
WItoTX
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How do you make your living off the weather?
I was thinking electrical provider. Now I am curious.
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Old 01-13-2022, 11:42 AM   #39
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Eric Berger said on the space city weather page that that post about the major cold snap was just trolling and that there is nothing to be concerned about, especially this far out
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