I don't think anyone would make the argument that Kelley isn't a better football coach than Orgeron. He is certainly a better coach than Les Miles was at the end of his tenure. Is he a better coach than Miles was at OSU and earlier in his tenure at LSU? Probably, but I think that those comparison's are much closer.
Coaches ability isn't static. They generally improve to a certain point, then plateau or start getting worse. The game changes and some keep up better than others. Similar to players. Hunger to win and the pressure of expectations or a giant contract can also change how coaches do things and the nature of their decisions generally take at least one year or years to unravel.
At 60 years old, it is fair to wonder whether Kelley is still in his plateau or on the downside of his career. It seems unlikely he is going to improve as a coach at LSU. I think his hunger to win a championship is a big plus in the pro column for predicting how he will perform at LSU. Will the scrutiny from a giant contract or the pressure of an institution/fanbase that just fired a coach two years after an epic national championship run change him negatively? Who knows, but it is certainly a valid question.
I don't think the bad culture fit will play much of a role in how the Kelley era turns out at LSU. It may play a role in how much rope he has to work with before the fanbase turns on him.
While we certainly now know that Lincoln Riley didn't want anything to do with the SEC and that made him a bad fit for LSU, there is a reason that LSU targeted him before they targeted Kelley and that reason is that he is perceived to have more upside.
Only hindsight will tell us whether there was another coach out there that would have been better than Kelley.
Comparing Kelley's overall wins and losses record against Saban's is a really poor comparison. LSU won't be playing mostly service academies and ACC teams. And, unlike Dabo, there aren't many CFP wins versus elite teams to point at. Dabo wasn't an option for LSU, so I'm not making that comparison like for like, just throwing it out there.
I think it is reasonable to say that LSU did about as good as they could do. It will be a few years before we know if Joey Freshwater, Tucker, Napier, Aranda, or Fickell would have been better hires.
I think it is also reasonable to question the upside of the hire and its long term stability.
Coaches ability isn't static. They generally improve to a certain point, then plateau or start getting worse. The game changes and some keep up better than others. Similar to players. Hunger to win and the pressure of expectations or a giant contract can also change how coaches do things and the nature of their decisions generally take at least one year or years to unravel.
At 60 years old, it is fair to wonder whether Kelley is still in his plateau or on the downside of his career. It seems unlikely he is going to improve as a coach at LSU. I think his hunger to win a championship is a big plus in the pro column for predicting how he will perform at LSU. Will the scrutiny from a giant contract or the pressure of an institution/fanbase that just fired a coach two years after an epic national championship run change him negatively? Who knows, but it is certainly a valid question.
I don't think the bad culture fit will play much of a role in how the Kelley era turns out at LSU. It may play a role in how much rope he has to work with before the fanbase turns on him.
While we certainly now know that Lincoln Riley didn't want anything to do with the SEC and that made him a bad fit for LSU, there is a reason that LSU targeted him before they targeted Kelley and that reason is that he is perceived to have more upside.
Only hindsight will tell us whether there was another coach out there that would have been better than Kelley.
Comparing Kelley's overall wins and losses record against Saban's is a really poor comparison. LSU won't be playing mostly service academies and ACC teams. And, unlike Dabo, there aren't many CFP wins versus elite teams to point at. Dabo wasn't an option for LSU, so I'm not making that comparison like for like, just throwing it out there.
I think it is reasonable to say that LSU did about as good as they could do. It will be a few years before we know if Joey Freshwater, Tucker, Napier, Aranda, or Fickell would have been better hires.
I think it is also reasonable to question the upside of the hire and its long term stability.
Comment