Future Real Estate Markets

[Bryan11]

I don't necessarily think the market is cooling but rather stabilizing. I've been looking to buy in the eastern Williamson county/ wester Milam county area only to put myself in the middle of where i work and where my kids live. Lot's of people took advantage of the boom, especially because of the Samsung plant in Taylor, and are cashing in. The properties i see listed that are having to do price reductions are the knock-down shacks that overpriced themselves. The good properties are still going fast and probably over asking.

[kyle1974]

it's going to crash. there is no market, of any item that can survive when it's impossible for new buyers to enter that market.

[axisbuck]

My house went on market Saturday, 3 showings Sunday and 3 on Monday..
Under contract Monday evening $$$ over asking price. As i was signing the offer, another offer came in at full-asking price, which was 10K under what my realtor recommended I should list due to Market Analysis. Comp's went up 30K in three months in my area. Didn't even put a sign up or lock box on door.
located between Copperas Cove and Lampasas area..
20 year old house, 1997 sq ft, 3 bedroom 2 bath on an acre..

Market isn't slowing. But believe current interest rates may be knocking out first time buyers..
Once you go above 250k value you have a limited pool of buyers in my area. And, people are selling in Austin, Georgetown, Round Rock and moving up to this area to escape high taxes and they're commuting to work or work remotely. And, they're leaving Killeen due to crime..

Congratulations! Key to getting multiple offers or a quick sale is pricing it
correctly in this market.

[BrandonA]

Real Estate is headed for a big correction. The FED is going to raise rates. Its very reasonable to see the FED rate at 5-6% minimum in the next year, year and a half. That will put mortgage rates in the 8-10% range if not higher. The days of cheap money are over at least for the next couple of yrs

[Gary Roberson]

Let me start off by saying, this is just my opinion. I have been in Real Estate for 15 plus years and I have never seen raw real estate go down in value or price. Structures and stuff like that can decrease in value over time which in turn can decrease overall value of property, but raw Real Estate will not.

I know that I am a Dinosaur but back in the 80's when I was President of Menard National Bank, I saw land sell for $400/acre that two years earlier sold for $800. This was when all the S&L's in Texas went under and nearly half the banks. Was not a fun time.
Unfortunately, it appears that Uncle Joe and the Dems have us on a "fast track" to get us into a deep recession. If that happens, I feel that we will see a downturn in values, first in home values and then in raw land. It is really very simple to see this happening, high interest rates and cost of living driven by high food and fuel prices will erode buying power. Less buyers, less demand, lower prices.
Adios,
Gary

[Txhunter3000]

Companies are getting used to making more money and making less product by blaming shortages so I'm curious to see what happens when demand decreases, if it even can.

[RiverRat1]

Real Estate is headed for a big correction. The FED is going to raise rates. Its very reasonable to see the FED rate at 5-6% minimum in the next year, year and a half. That will put mortgage rates in the 8-10% range if not higher. The days of cheap money are over at least for the next couple of yrs

Let the stock market correct a lot more over the next 3-5 weeks and the FED won't raise rates (my guess). They will say inflation looks to have stabilized enough and they want to give it more time before raising rates...Some BS like that. Then markets rally HARD and then they raise rates more LOL

[BrianL]

I don't think we will see much RE value drop in Texas for a while. We are seeing a mass migration to Texas that won't stop for several more years IMO. People from retired military, Cali, Illinois, and New York are coming in by the 1000s. That is who is driving the market price here, and also causing much of the shortage. That production increase in the market will have to be met. Almost a gentrification of sorts. I'm planning on riding the wave a bit longer before cashing it out.

[HogHunter34]

^^^ I agree. I know a guy I work with just last week put an offer in on a house for $30k above list price & 2 days later got beat out by a higher full cash offer. Probably from Cali

[Burnadell]

Real Estate is headed for a big correction. The FED is going to raise rates. Its very reasonable to see the FED rate at 5-6% minimum in the next year, year and a half. That will put mortgage rates in the 8-10% range if not higher. The days of cheap money are over at least for the next couple of yrs

I don't think we will see much RE value drop in Texas for a while. We are seeing a mass migration to Texas that won't stop for several more years IMO. People from retired military, Cali, Illinois, and New York are coming in by the 1000s. That is who is driving the market price here, and also causing much of the shortage. That production increase in the market will have to be met. Almost a gentrification of sorts. I'm planning on riding the wave a bit longer before cashing it out.

Who knows who is correct. I don't like to make predictions, but I tend to lean towards Brandon's prediction. Never say never. I remember well, when I was a banker, and people said the same thing that some say today...that R/E will never get cheaper because they aren't making any more. That is a naive thing to state.

From the link I posted earlier. Prices peaked in mid 80's, and it took about 13 years or so to get back to even:

[CaptainDave]

It seems the FED will keep increasing interest rates to try and curb inflation. I agree that as rates continue to creep upwards, traunches of buyers in the current market will also be pushed out, which would assist in decreasing the demand.

I also agree that many areas in TX market have been signficantly impacted by the out of state influx of people, however, you would think that even that is not a never ending pipeline; at least at the volume it's been over the last couple years.

Bottom line, the percentage increases in prices over the last couple years has been on an unsustainable upward trajectory. Will prices actual decrease at some point, I'm not sure; however, a leveling off of some sort in my opinion is inevitable.

[John Paul]

I know that I am a Dinosaur but back in the 80's when I was President of Menard National Bank, I saw land sell for $400/acre that two years earlier sold for $800. This was when all the S&L's in Texas went under and nearly half the banks. Was not a fun time.
Unfortunately, it appears that Uncle Joe and the Dems have us on a "fast track" to get us into a deep recession. If that happens, I feel that we will see a downturn in values, first in home values and then in raw land. It is really very simple to see this happening, high interest rates and cost of living driven by high food and fuel prices will erode buying power. Less buyers, less demand, lower prices.
Adios,
Gary

I agree, it could decrease some but I don’t see it in full correction. If it full corrected land values would go down on average 80% or more. Deals being done lately on raw acreage under 15 acres is around 13,500 an acre where 5 years ago it was $6500-7000. I would think if it decreases that much most that bought with intentions of selling will move to a long play and hold it. Either way even with and 80% decrease you still gained 20% from when you purchased. If land goes sub 6000 an acre on small parcels this guy is buying everything I can find. Lol. Anyway, thanks for the convo.

[RiverRat1]

Who knows who is correct. I don't like to make predictions, but I tend to lean towards Brandon's prediction. Never say never. I remember well, when I was a banker, and people said the same thing that some say today...that R/E will never get cheaper because they aren't making any more. That is a naive thing to state.

From the link I posted earlier. Prices peaked in mid 80's, and it took about 13 years or so to get back to even:

One can't predict what the FED will do. But you can predict what will happen if they raise rates like they say they will. RE would correct at least a good bit.

If they don't raise rates RE will not go down.

[gingib]

Some valid points on here!

I do NOT see how this current biden world can sustain itself. There is no way.

[Burnadell]

One can't predict what the FED will do. But you can predict what will happen if they raise rates like they say they will. RE would correct at least a good bit.

If they don't raise rates RE will not go down.

Go back and look at Fed Funds rates between 1989 and 2004 and compare the land price chart I posted...Rates trended down and so did land.