$65 osb

[Black Ice]

I meet a guy last week who owns a local lumber yard and it was an interesting conversation.

He said it’s gotten so high that he’s eating into his normal profit so he can keep up with the Lowe’s and Home Depot’s of the world.

He told me he’s running a truck to Home Depot for OSB and marking it up $2.00 per sheet because it’s cheaper there than what he can get it from his supplier.

Said he got tired of saying he didn’t have it and running the risk of customers going elsewhere for osb and maybe leaving him all together.


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[Dale Moser]

End unemployment.


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[kmitchl]

This reminds me of the Jimmy Carter era in the late 70's when double digit inflation was the norm. Home loans were going for 12-15% on a routine basis.

[miket]

End unemployment.


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Yep. There is a huge labor shortage caused by the lock downs and free money. We are competing against our own govt ( and our own tax dollars ) for employees.

So less is getting done, and it's costing more to get it done.

[J.Shoot]

Been in building supply business my whole life.
This is crazy times and it is going to be tough to correct. It reaches every industry in the building business, windows are 8 weeks out to get from manufacturer, doors are on allocation, everyone knows what lumber is doing and how hard it is to get. Steel products are on the rise and I have heard metal studs are becoming just as difficult to get. There are estimated 1.8 million home starts this year, all the osb mills combined can only produce enough wood for 1.2 million home starts. There are 2 mills coming on line this year but will only add enough wood to cut the gat by 300,000 homes. Like someone said earlier, it is a perfect storm, low supply, high demand. But now add all the seasonal issues that come up. Hail storms, hurricanes, for one thing will push roofing to higher levels and make it harder to get. I won't even get into the labor issues that are putting even more strains on all these issues.... caused by our own government.....

[bakin7005]

This reminds me of the Jimmy Carter era in the late 70's when double digit inflation was the norm. Home loans were going for 12-15% on a routine basis.

This will halt the demand and correct the shortage.

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[kurt68]

Here you go, a new Record.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/lumber-prices-top-1600-first-time-amid-homebuilding-boom-2021-5-1030392438

[Bill]

I was in the semiconductor industry for almost 20 years. I keep reading the analyses of why there are chip shortages.

IMHO the automobile companies cancelled orders with their electronics box suppliers, who cancelled orders for the chips they need, and the semiconductor companies to design them cancelled orders with the foundries (TSMC, Global Foundries, UMC, etc.) for new wafer starts.

The foundries replaced those wafer stats with new orders for consumer related chips. Now- the auto companies are SOL getting the electronic boxes.

Bill’s analysis. But I’ve been wrong by a factor of 10 before.


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[Passafist]

Maybe the government can just print more money and give it away. Oh wait that’s exactly what happened, the government won’t stop printing money so it makes what you have worth less

[Kevin]

I was in the semiconductor industry for almost 20 years. I keep reading the analyses of why there are chip shortages.

IMHO the automobile companies cancelled orders with their electronics box suppliers, who cancelled orders for the chips they need, and the semiconductor companies to design them cancelled orders with the foundries (TSMC, Global Foundries, UMC, etc.) for new wafer starts.

The foundries replaced those wafer stats with new orders for consumer related chips. Now- the auto companies are SOL getting the electronic boxes.

Bill’s analysis. But I’ve been wrong by a factor of 10 before.


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While that might have happened (I am unsure), the chip shortage is widespread even in consumer electronics, but the autos are getting hit hard.

[hpdrifter]

End unemployment.


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This reminds me of the Jimmy Carter era in the late 70's when double digit inflation was the norm. Home loans were going for 12-15% on a routine basis.

Yep. There is a huge labor shortage caused by the lock downs and free money. We are competing against our own govt ( and our own tax dollars ) for employees.

So less is getting done, and it's costing more to get it done.

This will halt the demand and correct the shortage.

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all of this tied together and it looks kinda like a case study in hydraulics. Pressure upstream and downstream don't match, the ripple goes up and down the line until an equilibrium is reached.... and it might not be good.

[Traildust]

Beef cattle is about $1.24lb.......whats that Ribeye going for again?

[OldRiverRat]

I was in the semiconductor industry for almost 20 years. I keep reading the analyses of why there are chip shortages.

IMHO the automobile companies cancelled orders with their electronics box suppliers, who cancelled orders for the chips they need, and the semiconductor companies to design them cancelled orders with the foundries (TSMC, Global Foundries, UMC, etc.) for new wafer starts.

The foundries replaced those wafer stats with new orders for consumer related chips. Now- the auto companies are SOL getting the electronic boxes.

Bill’s analysis. But I’ve been wrong by a factor of 10 before.


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this is precisely what happened and now they are trying to redirect to the auto industry and can't catch up
ford is building trucks and just parking them waiting on the chips




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[Bill]

I saw a guy at Costco today with a MAGA red hat that said, “Make Plywood Cheap Again”.

.... but this is Montana.




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[Mertzon Man]

Friend of mine’s good friend runs a Mc Coys and said they are paying 80.00 a sheet for OSB for their next order.