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Old 11-27-2021, 02:19 PM   #1
91cavgt
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Default Winter weather is coming, get ready

I have lurked on a weather forum for a couple of years now to see what professional and amateur meteorologists have to say about our weather. Well, in January several posters were talking about a possible nasty cold spell coming up in a month. Typically winter weather is VERY hard to predict here in Texas, and they freely admit that, but all the models and signs stayed lined up for that storm.


Well, those same people and weather models are once again saying winter weather is on its way, and they have all been consistently stating this for a few weeks. They could be off by a few days, but the models are consistently showing colder than normal weather coming in late the first week to the second week in December. The long range models are showing another cold spell coming in sometime close to or around Christmas.


If you’ve been putting off doing any winterizing, now is the time to do it. Here is the thread where they have been talking about this………

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=121994
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Old 11-27-2021, 03:13 PM   #2
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we have had many, many winter storms at Christmas and or New Years.

One Christmas, I went dove hunting in first week of Jan at -4°.
Went to two New Years parties in consecutive years with sleet on the roads.
It happens.
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Old 11-27-2021, 03:16 PM   #3
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I'm predicting we'll hit 100 next July, August at the latest
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Old 11-27-2021, 03:23 PM   #4
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Farmers Almanac says the same thing.
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Old 11-27-2021, 03:51 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gumbl3 View Post
I'm predicting we'll hit 100 next July, August at the latest
Ill also predict colder weather from dec-feb.
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:14 PM   #6
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And boy were they spot on for hurricane season this year
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:17 PM   #7
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And there's a 60% chance of rain

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Old 11-27-2021, 04:17 PM   #8
easeup
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one of my Haggard favorites.................

If we make it through December
Everythings gonna be all right I know
It's the coldest time of winter
And I shivver when I see the fallin snow
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:46 PM   #9
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Thanks for posting. Weather unfortunately has been politicized like climate. Who knows what to beleive.

Just finished The Perfect Storm by Al Roker and this science is highly accurate and trustworthy, even 120 years ago. I know there are purist, non sinicles out there truly working the magic and getting a good read on what's to come.
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Old 11-27-2021, 08:26 PM   #10
flywise
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Hope its right, i love a good cold winter. Im ready
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Old 11-27-2021, 08:28 PM   #11
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Bring it on! I got plenty Chile and Cornbread!
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Old 11-27-2021, 08:30 PM   #12
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Here in in SE Iowa it was 14 degrees yesterday morning and 65 this afternoon. We were shooting our bows this afternoon at our family Thanksgiving

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Old 11-27-2021, 08:33 PM   #13
CyTxCazador
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Forecast shows highs in the 70’s lows in mid to upper 50’s.
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Old 11-27-2021, 08:35 PM   #14
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Thought I made it last year and lost a pipe in the attic last week. Have doubled the heat in the attic and eves where needed. Think I am ready to dance...
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Old 11-27-2021, 08:43 PM   #15
.243 WSSM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 91cavgt View Post
I have lurked on a weather forum for a couple of years now to see what professional and amateur meteorologists have to say about our weather. Well, in January several posters were talking about a possible nasty cold spell coming up in a month. Typically winter weather is VERY hard to predict here in Texas, and they freely admit that, but all the models and signs stayed lined up for that storm.


Well, those same people and weather models are once again saying winter weather is on its way, and they have all been consistently stating this for a few weeks. They could be off by a few days, but the models are consistently showing colder than normal weather coming in late the first week to the second week in December. The long range models are showing another cold spell coming in sometime close to or around Christmas.


If you’ve been putting off doing any winterizing, now is the time to do it. Here is the thread where they have been talking about this………

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=121994
Most of the posters on there are model huggers. Need to watch the trend vs far out fantasy models and see a consistent trend developing. Keep in mind we are into a full on la nina and are causing a lot of problems with modelistic forecasting. A few days before last weekend's rain/storm system the models were putting out 4-8" of widespread rain in northeast TX. It was a total bust. Beware of those guys on storm2k, many of them live in fantasyland and will go all in on only certain models instead of following a trend. Cold fronts are coming but it's a little soon to be crying polar vortex and mcfarland signature. Dont get sucked into the hype this far out
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Old 11-27-2021, 09:57 PM   #16
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What does Johnny the redneck TBH weather dude predict for this winter?
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:03 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gumbl3 View Post
I'm predicting we'll hit 100 next July, August at the latest
I am going to bet you are correct.
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:11 PM   #18
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I'm predicting a wet cold front with icy roads between the first and 15th of February. What do I win if true?
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:20 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 100%TtId View Post
What does Johnny the redneck TBH weather dude predict for this winter?
I trust him.
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:33 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 100%TtId View Post
What does Johnny the redneck TBH weather dude predict for this winter?
He’ll be along shortly, needs to check the models first.
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:35 PM   #21
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My accuweather forecast doesn’t look too severe.
I hope it stays above 20.
We were -5 here for an hour or two last year.
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:39 PM   #22
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1 cord of cut and stacked oak, and a 13,500 watt back up generator with the system installed in the house. Bring it on!
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:43 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mudslinger View Post
1 cord of cut and stacked oak, and a 13,500 watt back up generator with the system installed in the house. Bring it on!
I make a mean chicken and dumplings. Chilli. Spaghetti. Steak. Pork chop. Dad jokes. You name it. If I get cold. I and my family will bunk with you.
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Old 11-27-2021, 11:01 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Lee View Post
I make a mean chicken and dumplings. Chilli. Spaghetti. Steak. Pork chop. Dad jokes. You name it. If I get cold. I and my family will bunk with you.
I could easily sleep 3 adults in beds, more on cots or the floor!
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Old 11-28-2021, 06:56 AM   #25
91cavgt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by .243 WSSM View Post
Most of the posters on there are model huggers. Need to watch the trend vs far out fantasy models and see a consistent trend developing. Keep in mind we are into a full on la nina and are causing a lot of problems with modelistic forecasting. A few days before last weekend's rain/storm system the models were putting out 4-8" of widespread rain in northeast TX. It was a total bust. Beware of those guys on storm2k, many of them live in fantasyland and will go all in on only certain models instead of following a trend. Cold fronts are coming but it's a little soon to be crying polar vortex and mcfarland signature. Dont get sucked into the hype this far out

I am talking about trends. As they state over and over on storm2k, you can’t rely on one model “fantasyland” run. Are there people there that do this, yes. But not everyone does.

With all of the info that we currently have showing a potential cold snap coming that could trigger power outages again as ERCOT has already warned us about, I would rather prepare now and be wrong then to not prepare and watch my family suffer. It is up to you and everyone else here to make your own decision. Personally, with how messed up our supply chain already is, I would prefer to prepare now while cold weather supplies are in stock and plentiful then to wait and take my chances.
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Old 11-28-2021, 09:06 AM   #26
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Seeing how I am on a knee scooter and bum foot until mid Feb you can almost bet the house that there will be some nasty crap between now and then.
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Old 11-28-2021, 10:28 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrandonA View Post
Seeing how I am on a knee scooter and bum foot until mid Feb you can almost bet the house that there will be some nasty crap between now and then.
That’s the way it usually works! It happened to me in 2011. I was in a cast and we got 11” of snow in D/FW!!
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Old 11-28-2021, 10:41 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 91cavgt View Post
That’s the way it usually works! It happened to me in 2011. I was in a cast and we got 11” of snow in D/FW!!
That was awesome!!
I spent nearly 6 hrs stuck on Bush trying to get home
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Old 11-28-2021, 11:15 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 91cavgt View Post
. . .

With all of the info that we currently have showing a potential cold snap coming that could trigger power outages again as ERCOT has already warned us about, I would rather prepare now and be wrong then to not prepare and watch my family suffer. It is up to you and everyone else here to make your own decision. Personally, with how messed up our supply chain already is, I would prefer to prepare now while cold weather supplies are in stock and plentiful then to wait and take my chances.
Too many people on the systems and still building.
What could go wrong?
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Old 11-28-2021, 05:38 PM   #30
91cavgt
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big pig View Post
Too many people on the systems and still building.
What could go wrong?
Exactly. But it was a once in 100 year storm so we are good. Nothing to see here. Move along…………
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Old 11-28-2021, 09:01 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gumbl3 View Post
I'm predicting we'll hit 100 next July, August at the latest
I predict the same losers that weren’t prepared last year, won’t be this year either.
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Old 11-28-2021, 10:22 PM   #32
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Bring it!
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Old 11-28-2021, 10:28 PM   #33
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Generator is scheduled to be delivered dec 24 and the electrician is scheduled to install the system on the house on it first week of January. What's the forecast on how much the wife is going to complain?
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Old 11-30-2021, 08:16 AM   #34
keep
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Any updates? How’s it looking now?
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Old 11-30-2021, 08:45 AM   #35
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LOL! Nothing the next 2 weeks.

Weathermen
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Old 11-30-2021, 09:12 AM   #36
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I will definitely have plenty of anti-gel for my diesel!
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Old 11-30-2021, 09:17 AM   #37
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Winterized the ranch and equipment last week. Let it Snow !
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:06 AM   #38
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You all crack me up.
We'll get snow, have closed roads for days and be bitter cold.
Life goes on.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:11 AM   #39
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one little sleet/ice storm shuts us down here in the winter!
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:54 AM   #40
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We've only had a couple cold fronts, it's not even full on winter yet, and I am already ready for summer.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:56 AM   #41
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Anything between last February and 75 degrees works for me.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:58 AM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Killer View Post
one little sleet/ice storm shuts us down here in the winter!
Thankfully ice storms are rare up here but when we get it the intestate gets nasty.
Highways may close for a few days but life goes on in town. Stores may get low on a few things but bars are open and we welcome the stranded travelers.

We need the snow right now, drought is going to be bad for the rocky mountain region if we don't get some soon.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:59 AM   #43
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Cold in the winter - cutting edge
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:01 PM   #44
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Winter weather...in the winter. This is crazy. But I like this outside the box thinking.
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:24 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wytex View Post
You all crack me up.
We'll get snow, have closed roads for days and be bitter cold.
Life goes on.
Glad we are bringing smiles to you....
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:25 PM   #46
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What am I missing? The 10 day forecast for dfw has highs in the upper 60s
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:59 PM   #47
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December is Winter, and I will be hunting in 83 degree weather in Christoval Friday afternoon..............
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:03 PM   #48
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Quote:
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What am I missing? The 10 day forecast for dfw has highs in the upper 60s
Models didn't turn out to be correct.
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:15 PM   #49
Traildust
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Chili is HOT!
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:17 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 91cavgt View Post
With all of the info that we currently have showing a potential cold snap coming that could trigger power outages again as ERCOT has already warned us about,
I would have guessed they have spent the whole year using all they learned from the previous debacle to improve the grid so that we don't have a repeat. Was there any improvement made?
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