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Old 01-21-2021, 09:47 AM   #1
Preacher Man
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Default When will the ammo shortage end

I went by a small local gun shop a couple weeks ago. Bumped into the owner and asked him when his next shipment of ammo will be. He told me he expected a shipment the next week and that he had placed this order back in July.

yikes....

Any guesses or insight you can share?
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Old 01-21-2021, 09:49 AM   #2
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I don't see it getting any better this year.
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Old 01-21-2021, 09:50 AM   #3
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Next Presidential election.......maybe
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Old 01-21-2021, 09:52 AM   #4
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Not anytime soon. My old neighbor works across the street from Academy in Mansfield and she posted on fb that the line this morning after the inauguration is 3x what it normally is
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Old 01-21-2021, 09:53 AM   #5
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I read something that the relief wasn't expected till early 22
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Old 01-21-2021, 09:54 AM   #6
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If the flippers stop, it will help.
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Old 01-21-2021, 09:56 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by oktx View Post
If the flippers stop, it will help.
If people would stop buying from the flippers it would help!!! If they canít make money they wonít buy
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Old 01-21-2021, 09:58 AM   #8
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Like toilet paper, at some point people will outspend their ability to use it or their paycheck will not be able to sustain the spending rate. That said, 7 million new gun owners, a lot of savvy internet wheeling and dealing, and itíll be a while before the appetite is satiated.


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Old 01-21-2021, 09:58 AM   #9
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when the next Republican president gets elected.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:01 AM   #10
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when the next Republican president gets elected.
So, never

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Old 01-21-2021, 10:06 AM   #11
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When the supply gets flooded to the point retailers cant sell the popular cal. Then they will produce other ammunition until that too is available and on the shelves. It will take a while. It really has nothing to do with the ammunition flippers. Shelves at Academy would still be empty right now. The people buying from the flippers would still be waiting at Academy. If someone wants to get up and stand in line at Academy for 2 hours and buy 3 boxes of ammunition and makes $100 they are not exactly making much money. Figure takes gas, time, effort and 3 plus hours to make $100. Cheaper than getting food delivered from Uber Eats if you do the math
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:13 AM   #12
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just checked.... I have a backorder from April that still has not delivered.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:16 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oktx View Post
If the flippers stop, it will help.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hybridhunternm View Post
If people would stop buying from the flippers it would help!!! If they canít make money they wonít buy
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:18 AM   #14
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Won’t be anytime this year. Probably 2022 before you can walk into an academy and get ammo like normal
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:19 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glen View Post
When the supply gets flooded to the point retailers cant sell the popular cal. Then they will produce other ammunition until that too is available and on the shelves. It will take a while. It really has nothing to do with the ammunition flippers. Shelves at Academy would still be empty right now. The people buying from the flippers would still be waiting at Academy. If someone wants to get up and stand in line at Academy for 2 hours and buy 3 boxes of ammunition and makes $100 they are not exactly making much money. Figure takes gas, time, effort and 3 plus hours to make $100. Cheaper than getting food delivered from Uber Eats if you do the math
I agree with this, but wish Academy and others would limit to 1 box till this is over. That would cut out a lot of the people going with the sole intent to resale the ammo. If they do it 7 days a week because they live close that is $3k/month flipping ammo
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:20 AM   #16
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Anyone remember how long it lasted in 2013 when we had the same issues? Nothing was on the shelves and you couldn't get PMAGs.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:27 AM   #17
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Anyone remember how long it lasted in 2013 when we had the same issues? Nothing was on the shelves and you couldn't get PMAGs.
I was thinking about that also. But I don't remember that shortage including all calibers like this one does.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:39 AM   #18
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It will end when the new administration puts all kinds of taxes and regulations on it including background checks to purchase. It is coming.
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:47 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Throwin Darts View Post
It will end when the new administration puts all kinds of taxes and regulations on it including background checks to purchase. It is coming.
You may be right, and what may help influence it is people not being able to buy it now thinking...."If that passes then it will be back on shelves and still cheaper than I'm paying now"
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Old 01-21-2021, 10:56 AM   #20
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Anyone remember how long it lasted in 2013 when we had the same issues? Nothing was on the shelves and you couldn't get PMAGs.
Or 4 years before that when the first major shortage hit in 2009?

It typically takes a year or so to settle out but Covid has been the monkey wrench in all of this. Ammo shortage started long before the election
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:01 AM   #21
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It typically takes a year or so to settle out but Covid has been the monkey wrench in all of this. Ammo shortage started long before the election

Was Covid the wrench or the Floyd riots starting? I don't remember a drop-off early in the year until folks started getting scared during the riots.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:05 AM   #22
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Was Covid the wrench or the Floyd riots starting? I don't remember a drop-off early in the year until folks started getting scared during the riots.
I think it was the rona coupled with the riots.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:09 AM   #23
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I think it was the rona coupled with the riots.

Maybe thatís just when I started paying attention myself
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:09 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by glen View Post
When the supply gets flooded to the point retailers cant sell the popular cal. Then they will produce other ammunition until that too is available and on the shelves. It will take a while. It really has nothing to do with the ammunition flippers. Shelves at Academy would still be empty right now. The people buying from the flippers would still be waiting at Academy. If someone wants to get up and stand in line at Academy for 2 hours and buy 3 boxes of ammunition and makes $100 they are not exactly making much money. Figure takes gas, time, effort and 3 plus hours to make $100. Cheaper than getting food delivered from Uber Eats if you do the math


Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianL View Post
I agree with this, but wish Academy and others would limit to 1 box till this is over. That would cut out a lot of the people going with the sole intent to resale the ammo. If they do it 7 days a week because they live close that is $3k/month flipping ammo
does academy get a shipment every day? i thought they were only getting maybe two a week.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:12 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by txpitdog View Post
Like toilet paper, at some point people will outspend their ability to use it or their paycheck will not be able to sustain the spending rate. That said, 7 million new gun owners, a lot of savvy internet wheeling and dealing, and itíll be a while before the appetite is satiated.
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This and a few other numbers have been floated and that does not include gun show sales and person/person sales. This was all over the last 4 years. Broke all the records from the previous administration.
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Originally Posted by duckmanep View Post
when the next Republican president gets elected.
The numbers aint working to show that is accurate. It has been hyper gun buying for 12 years with up and down ammo shortages.
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So, never

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I doubt that will come to pass but understand the thoughts around it. Probably next election it will be someone who is actually a conservative and has a vision that includes all aspects of the economy. Leadership has been out of politics for decades.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:14 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by W E H View Post
does academy get a shipment every day? i thought they were only getting maybe two a week.
The stores here get between 1-3 shipments a week. I doubt any store gets a shipment every single day
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:14 AM   #27
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If you take the flippers, hoarders and panickers out of the equation, there’s ammo on the shelf next week.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:14 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W E H View Post
Originally Posted by glen View Post
When the supply gets flooded to the point retailers cant sell the popular cal. Then they will produce other ammunition until that too is available and on the shelves. It will take a while. It really has nothing to do with the ammunition flippers. Shelves at Academy would still be empty right now. The people buying from the flippers would still be waiting at Academy. If someone wants to get up and stand in line at Academy for 2 hours and buy 3 boxes of ammunition and makes $100 they are not exactly making much money. Figure takes gas, time, effort and 3 plus hours to make $100. Cheaper than getting food delivered from Uber Eats if you do the math




does academy get a shipment every day? i thought they were only getting maybe two a week.
IDK. Closest Academy to me is 70 miles away... I did ask the guy behind the counter and he said they get ammo every day, and it will be gone within an hour. But that was when this all started. But if you can know when to make the rounds and go to Academy, Cabelas, Walmart, Scheels......

Last edited by BrianL; 01-21-2021 at 11:18 AM.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:23 AM   #29
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If the republicans retake the House in 2022 it will get better, assuming the dems don't succeed in passing any ammo bills. Otherwise, 2025 at the earliest.
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:27 AM   #30
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4 years
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:29 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duckmanep View Post
when the next Republican president gets elected.
Didn't the shortage develop under a republican administration?
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Old 01-21-2021, 11:35 AM   #32
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I think we'll know within the first hundred days.
Already covid is a non issue. Football stadiums full with no social distancing or masks. Financial institutions sending out emails the lobbies have reopened the same day as the inauguration.
We'll see how they test the waters very soon and what kind of fight the whipped party puts up.

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Old 01-21-2021, 12:20 PM   #33
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Two years is what Iím hearing from some of the ammo manufacturers but thatís their guess.


Sierracharlie out....
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Old 01-21-2021, 12:27 PM   #34
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so, never

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this ^^^^^^
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:10 PM   #35
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Or 4 years before that when the first major shortage hit in 2009?

It typically takes a year or so to settle out but Covid has been the monkey wrench in all of this. Ammo shortage started long before the election
I had no problem buying ammo anywhere before Rona hit. The ammo manufacturers have been hit with Rona in the plants as well as raw materials shortages. It doesn't help that there have been 7 million new gun owners estimated this year. If each person bought 100 rounds, that's 700 million rounds of ammo that have to be added to the market in a shortage already.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:20 PM   #36
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Wait until everyone gets that 1400 dollars and buys a new gun or 2 with it. They are going to need ammo.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:25 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart View Post
Was Covid the wrench or the Floyd riots starting? I don't remember a drop-off early in the year until folks started getting scared during the riots.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TacticalCowboy View Post
I think it was the rona coupled with the riots.
When the first rounds of panic buying on TP started last March is when I saw folks starting to stock pile ammo
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:26 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by panhandlehunter View Post
If you take the flippers, hoarders and panickers out of the equation, thereís ammo on the shelf next week.
Exactly
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:30 PM   #39
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I saw this coming and started casting my own projectiles. It’s not terribly expensive to start and if you reload it’s kinda fun to produce your own rounds. Not precision ammo but with some studying and trial you can get decent results.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:32 PM   #40
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When people realize they're just as dumb for hoarding ammo as they were for buying all the toilet paper up.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:33 PM   #41
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I'm thinking about buying one of those 30 caliber BB guns. Seriously.
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Old 01-21-2021, 01:39 PM   #42
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When people realize they're just as dumb for hoarding ammo as they were for buying all the toilet paper up.
dumb for hoarding ammo? ammo can always be used as a form of currency. would have been pretty smart to hoard about 100k of rounds 2 years ago and sell it now.

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Old 01-21-2021, 02:00 PM   #43
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Some things don't add up. They ammo makers say they are producing more than ever; but the usual stores are not getting but a fraction of what they used to get.
I also would like to see the big stores limit it to 1 box per customer.
As a last resort quit making so many different calibers and concentrate on 3.

22lr.
30-30
300 win mag
If they would do this I would stop biatching.

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Old 01-21-2021, 02:11 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by sotol View Post
Some things don't add up. They ammo makers say they are producing more than ever; but the usual stores are not getting but a fraction of what they used to get.
I also would like to see the big stores limit it to 1 box per customer.
As a last resort quit making so many different calibers and concentrate on 3.

22lr.
30-30
300 win mag
If they would do this I would stop biatching.

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It adds up perfectly... Big stores are selling out every shipment. Not adding 5 boxes here and 10 boxes there to an existing inventory. They are ordering the max they can and hope some of it is filled. The ammo mfgers are trying to fill max orders every day. Not some small 10-15 piece order from Mom and Pop's gun store or a normal order from the big box store during non-panic days. New shooters seems to be a big culprit....Ive seen quotes of 4-5 million of them...buying ammo...that's a lot of demand. My wife is one of them We have been shooting a lot lately trying to get her ready for her CHL. With that I have been shooting more than normal as well.. So there's two folks affected by one new shooter so you can probably add another 2 million to that 4-5 number for folks affected by new shooters. Throw in the scalpers and panic folks and its a recipe for what you see production and inventory wise.... Hopefully it tapers off soon like TP..
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Old 01-21-2021, 02:28 PM   #45
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if you take all the tbhíers out of the equation, thereís ammo on the shelf next week.



fify.
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Old 01-21-2021, 02:41 PM   #46
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It’ll stop when people realize no major gun control legislation will actually get passed. We needed a ****storm to erupt on Inauguration Day for any chance of gun/ammo restrictions to get through Congress. People behaved themselves. If nothing occurred under Obama, I have no reason to believe anything will happen over Biden. The Democrats are just playing to their base and it’s mostly right wing paranoia/flippers/hoarders fueling the buying at this point. What cracks me up is the types that think thousands of rounds will keep them alive if SHTF, but couldn’t run a mile under 12 minutes if their life depended on it.

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Old 01-21-2021, 02:47 PM   #47
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dumb for hoarding ammo? ammo can always be used as a form of currency. would have been pretty smart to hoard about 100k of rounds 2 years ago and sell it now.

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Dumb in the sense that people are scared. Overreacting big time. People that are buying it for the prices that some people are throwing out there are dumb. Can't really blame the people benefiting from it.
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Old 01-21-2021, 03:12 PM   #48
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Itíll stop when people realize no major gun control legislation will actually get passed. We needed a ****storm to erupt on Inauguration Day for any chance of gun/ammo restrictions to get through Congress. People behaved themselves. If nothing occurred under Obama, I have no reason to believe anything will happen over Biden. The Democrats are just playing to their base and itís mostly right wing paranoia/flippers/hoarders fueling the buying at this point. What cracks me up is the types that think thousands of rounds will keep them alive if SHTF, but couldnít run a mile under 12 minutes if their life depended on it.
I would rather have thousands of rounds of ammo over a pair of Nike's.
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Old 01-21-2021, 03:31 PM   #49
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Just ran a 9:35 mile lol hope to be sub 7 by april
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Old 01-21-2021, 03:36 PM   #50
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Just ran a 9:35 mile lol hope to be sub 7 by april
Keep up the good work!

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