Anyone moving stocks to more conservative safe haven areas?

[RiverRat1]

COIN - Todays low just under $41 and already $60 again

These markets are broken. COIN is a 15 Billion market cap.

[SharpEnd]

COIN - Todays low just under $41 and already $60 again

These markets are broken. COIN is a 15 Billion market cap.

Down from $357 in November.

[Kdog]

Bought some SPDR today. Haven't logged into my stock account in about a week, oh boy. I feel fortunate that I have some money to invest. My thoughts line up with RTP about inflation eating away at your cash. No matter what you invest in, it is not a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket, especially if you have a lot of them.

[SabineHunter]

Bought some SPDR today. Haven't logged into my stock account in about a week, oh boy. I feel fortunate that I have some money to invest. My thoughts line up with RTP about inflation eating away at your cash. No matter what you invest in, it is not a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket, especially if you have a lot of them.

So, I don't get this kinda thinking. Are you saying people should put some or all of the cash into stock and take a 25 to 30 percent hit on it instead of sitting on cash waiting for the right stock at the right time?

[txbowman12]

If the outcome was as certain as a. Put money in and lose 30% or b. Don’t do that then yes everyone with a brain should pick option a. But unless you believe you can time the market perfectly, you don’t know when it will turn around. So when is “the right time”?

Typical corrections are 15-20% which is where we are, there are plenty of macro things that could cause this bearish run to continue, but usually when markets recover, they recover quickly. If you wait until it turns around you will have likely missed the opportunity.

[IkemanTX]

Anyone moving stocks to more conservative safe haven areas?

If the outcome was as certain as a. Put money in and lose 30% or b. Don’t do that then yes everyone with a brain should pick option a. But unless you believe you can time the market perfectly, you don’t know when it will turn around. So when is “the right time”?

Typical corrections are 15-20% which is where we are, there are plenty of macro things that could cause this bearish run to continue, but usually when markets recover, they recover quickly. If you wait until it turns around you will have likely missed the opportunity.

The DJI closed yesterday down 14.14% from its 52 week high, so we are down into the typical correction, but I wonder if the correction won’t be larger this time from the insane currency creation of the last 2.5 years…

With Fed rates continuing to rise, inflation still not being checked, supply chain issues across most industries, and one of the largest labor crisis in US history….. I think the recovery will be slower than a snap back. I’m wondering if this one won’t look more like the 1987 or 1937 crashes in its recovery.

That said… I am very tempted to buy back in after this 14% discount especially if the next day or two seem to stabilize. If stocks jump back quickly, I won’t be jumping back in just yet. Too many large crashes have a brief little increase before really falling off a cliff.

Notice all 3 of these crashes have that small, quick, rise after the initial sell off… only to truly dump after that. In 2020, that initial dip was about 12%, less for 87 and 29…


In 1938, that initial sell off was 13% which is very close to where it sits today. That was followed by a strong buy back, and then it absolutely tanked.

I think the markets will soon lift for a week or two (maybe a month) and then REALLY take a beating. That said, I am a relatively young man so the markets will absolutely recover completely between now and 2047 when I can draw from these accounts. I could buy in now and not lose any sleep, even if it drops another 30% before recovering.

All that being said, I am just some dumb guy on the internet who doesn’t have any formal education regarding investing, so my word could be worth less than you paid for it…. Which is already nothing.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[RiverRat1]

I'm thinking like 1938 also. Wait until the FED tries selling next month or when they ramp up selling in July/August.

[bbqfan5909]

When you figure out how to exactly time the market, please let us all know!

So, I don't get this kinda thinking. Are you saying people should put some or all of the cash into stock and take a 25 to 30 percent hit on it instead of sitting on cash waiting for the right stock at the right time?

[SabineHunter]

When you figure out how to exactly time the market, please let us all know!

I sure will. But, I'll give you a hint. It'll be after this clown and his crew is out of office.

[Kdog]

So, I don't get this kinda thinking. Are you saying people should put some or all of the cash into stock and take a 25 to 30 percent hit on it instead of sitting on cash waiting for the right stock at the right time?

Haha, yes I am advising people to lose money. I am not giving advice at all actually. I am barely smart enough to decide what to do with my own money, and even that is questionable. What I mean is, I have real concerns about inflation. To my mind having some money in the stock market is one way to try to combat that, because of the potential upside. It's not the only way, hell there are probably better ways. I am probably thinking about my stock account differently than you are. I don't have any plans to cash in my stocks. I'm looking at it more as something possibly my kids can have when they are older. So it is a long horizon. Really my point was it is risky to put all your money into one thing. I have money invested in the stock market, but I am also invested in other things.

[IkemanTX]

I think the markets will soon lift for a week or two (maybe a month) and then REALLY take a beating.…

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well, I didn’t expect it to start 6 hours after I posted this… but if this keeps up for a while it will confirm what I have been thinking.
Or, I may regret buying in yesterday and this little correction is the only hiccup in the markets and all the fake money, inflation, and poor market fundamentals mean nothing…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SharpEnd]

Dead cat bounce. We haven't seen the bottom. Look at 2000-2001 - the bubble popped, market had a huge downswing, then a pretty solid bounce or two, then more big downswing until mid-2003. Similar in 2008, six months of downtrend, two up months, then about 9 months before the recovery started.

[rtp]

Haha, yes I am advising people to lose money. I am not giving advice at all actually. I am barely smart enough to decide what to do with my own money, and even that is questionable. What I mean is, I have real concerns about inflation. To my mind having some money in the stock market is one way to try to combat that, because of the potential upside. It's not the only way, hell there are probably better ways. I am probably thinking about my stock account differently than you are. I don't have any plans to cash in my stocks. I'm looking at it more as something possibly my kids can have when they are older. So it is a long horizon. Really my point was it is risky to put all your money into one thing. I have money invested in the stock market, but I am also invested in other things.

Well stated. It really is shocking to me that some think their way is the only way. 100% of one asset class is extremely risky. But the bigger the risk the potential bigger reward.

I took a huge risk when I was in my 30s and it paid off big time. I’m past rolling the big dice. I keep some play money around to satisfy my need to try something extreme from time to time. I bet I’m close to break even on those itches that needed scratching. Other than that I own some of everything.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rtp]

Powell says he can't guarantee a 'soft landing' as the Fed looks to control inflation.

This comes out and the markets go up. Smdh.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SabineHunter]

Haha, yes I am advising people to lose money. I am not giving advice at all actually. I am barely smart enough to decide what to do with my own money, and even that is questionable. What I mean is, I have real concerns about inflation. To my mind having some money in the stock market is one way to try to combat that, because of the potential upside. It's not the only way, hell there are probably better ways. I am probably thinking about my stock account differently than you are. I don't have any plans to cash in my stocks. I'm looking at it more as something possibly my kids can have when they are older. So it is a long horizon. Really my point was it is risky to put all your money into one thing. I have money invested in the stock market, but I am also invested in other things.

Please read #122. I, too, don't plan to touch my investment account.