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Old 09-16-2022, 09:27 AM   #451
Mexico
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I agree. Seems we've made it a season without dodging 1 bullet. Kinda nice for a change!
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Old 09-16-2022, 10:48 AM   #452
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Originally Posted by Man View Post
Google machine says Texas has only been hit by 2 hurricanes in October since 1900

Statistical end to our season is coming quick, generally after a couple cool front make it off the coast. A hit can happen but incredibly unlikely


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Old 09-16-2022, 10:54 AM   #453
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I do not believe you are allowed to say that anymore on TBH. Its does not matter how beneficial the water will be to you or your livelihood. If it has the potential to harm someone else either physically or financially and you wish upon it, making it more likely to happen...then that is just wrong. This isn't the ol days of your father or grandfather...your personal thoughts can lead to severe consequences for others.
I take this as a joke,our country is turning into one big wussy
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Old 09-16-2022, 11:16 AM   #454
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I take this as a joke,our country is turning into one big wussy
You may be one of the few who actually got the tongue in cheek LOL
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Old 09-16-2022, 11:44 AM   #455
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Originally Posted by COACH_EM_UP View Post
Since you are offering suggestions on moving, maybe you should move away.from the coast. Maybe you should move away from a place that has annual hurricanes? I mean, just saying. Why does he have to move but you don't? Should he move to the coast so he can get good rainfall from a tropical depression or hurricane? Or better yet, why don't you tell him where to buy a house. What about all the people in fire danger because of the drought? Are you wishing them to stay in danger because you don't want a hurricane? See, it works both ways pal. You want them to stay in a drought and fire danger, so you don't have to experience a hurricane. Devastation goes both ways.

My dad is a farmer/rancher. We are in a drought in Cemtral Texas. Do we need rain? YES. Do hurricanes bring rain to us? YES. Do I have ill wishes on those who might be in the path of a hurricane? HELL NO. Do my wishes actually have any bearing on the weather? ABSOLUTELY FREAKING NOT. Do I want our cattle and hay to survive? YES. Does that mean I want destruction for you? NOPE.

And I am dropping the mic!
Well Pal.....If literally any other member on this site would have mentioned a hurricane I wouldn't have given it two thoughts. gingib has been banned once, got a new name and spouts the same stupid stuff that got him banned in the first place. He contributes very little in a positive manner.

I don't give a **** where he lives. I also live in Houston which is not technically on the coast. I have not had any issues with my houses from hurricanes over the years. I do have a ton of friends who were hit extremely hard by 2 hurricanes in Lake Charles back to back. SE Texas and SW LA need to catch a break.

I don't want anyone's cows to die or have to be sold etc. I just don't have use for his comments because he says the same stupid stuff on every thread. Defend him all you want. I stand by my comments. Nothing he says or I say is going to change the weather that is being served up. It is stupid to wish a major hurricane on anyone so he personally can get a little rain. I wish everyone in Texas had all the rain they need to get by. Hell, I hope gingib gets a pop cell **** floater on his house. Hope that makes you sleep better.

Last edited by TildenHunter; 09-16-2022 at 11:48 AM.
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Old 09-19-2022, 05:01 PM   #456
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Newest model run for GFS has another TX/La storm 10/4. Hope this doesn't play out this way. I know there is plenty of time for new model runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Old 09-19-2022, 05:07 PM   #457
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Wait until the next one’s out in a couple of hours, it’ll probably vanish.

These are some of the same people that can’t accurately forecast 12-24 hours in advance. There’s no way they can consistently be right 2 weeks out.

That isn’t to imply not to be prepared, which I’m sure most of us near the coast are, the time for concern is within 5 days of projected landfall. That’s when there should be a decent idea of where a system is going, or if there’s even going to be a system at all.
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Old 09-20-2022, 10:59 AM   #458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twist View Post
Wait until the next oneís out in a couple of hours, itíll probably vanish.

These are some of the same people that canít accurately forecast 12-24 hours in advance. Thereís no way they can consistently be right 2 weeks out.

That isnít to imply not to be prepared, which Iím sure most of us near the coast are, the time for concern is within 5 days of projected landfall. Thatís when there should be a decent idea of where a system is going, or if thereís even going to be a system at all.
Right.

I almost wish they would keep the 2 week models top secret so the media cant hype people up into a freenzy. Its tiring.
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Old 09-20-2022, 12:08 PM   #459
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Already bought 1000 rolls of toilet paper.
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Old 09-20-2022, 12:12 PM   #460
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We survived the dark winter of death....fugg a hurricane!
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Old 09-21-2022, 06:40 AM   #461
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? the models have been off all season. https://ust.chatango.com/um/c/a/camocook/img/l_570.jpg
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Old 09-21-2022, 08:15 AM   #462
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Originally Posted by waterdog View Post
? the models have been off all season. https://ust.chatango.com/um/c/a/camocook/img/l_570.jpg

Yesterday morning this one was at a 20% chance of development due to the shear coming off Fiona. This morning its in the red (60% +)



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Old 09-21-2022, 10:01 AM   #463
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Hmmm...
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Old 09-21-2022, 10:07 AM   #464
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10 days out it shows hitting the Florida panhandle. Let's see how much that changes this time tomorrow!
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Old 09-21-2022, 10:44 AM   #465
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Originally Posted by Johnny Dangerr View Post
Hmmm...
It's starting to look like a definite possibility.....

This will be my final retirement storm, if it hits.

But our house in Florida is right in the cone of possibility.
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Old 09-21-2022, 05:50 PM   #466
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Whoever the hell we is better not be anywhere near LA

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LOL, agreed.
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Old 09-21-2022, 06:01 PM   #467
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Recon is up now. This might be the storm makes everyone forget this has been a slow season thus far.


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Old 09-21-2022, 06:21 PM   #468
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Recon is up now. This might be the storm makes everyone forget this has been a slow season thus far.


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Hope not. But man itís got a long way to go and lots of time to build.
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Old 09-21-2022, 06:23 PM   #469
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jump to 9:41 for 98l.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Old 09-21-2022, 06:30 PM   #470
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It would make me happy if 98L just blows apart and we go a season with no more storms
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Old 09-21-2022, 07:18 PM   #471
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Odds are not in favor of this storm making a Texas landfall. But this also isn’t a normal year, and there’s no remarkable fronts really in the forecast, but it’s still a long ways from us. Trade winds may also not really be favorable to steer this storm nw.

I think it will start to bend NE and be a Florida stirm
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Old 09-21-2022, 07:21 PM   #472
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Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
Recon is up now. This might be the storm makes everyone forget this has been a slow season thus far.


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Yep. Need to keep a close eye on this one, especially from Eastern Louisiana to Florida.

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Old 09-21-2022, 07:29 PM   #473
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Looking like Floridas going to get a big one but still too early to tell. And gingib needs to just leave this thread, but luckily he can wish in one and and crap in the other lol
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Old 09-21-2022, 07:40 PM   #474
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Yep. Need to keep a close eye on this one, especially from Eastern Louisiana to Florida.

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Good to see you on here, Johnny!
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Old 09-21-2022, 07:40 PM   #475
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I'm just thankful for these 2 little fronts coming that hopefully keep this baby pushed East.

Last edited by Mexico; 09-21-2022 at 08:04 PM.
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Old 09-21-2022, 08:24 PM   #476
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If the models are correct and it comes into the gulf like that, with these conditions, then lord help us.
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Old 09-21-2022, 09:13 PM   #477
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
Yep. Need to keep a close eye on this one, especially from Eastern Louisiana to Florida.

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Theres some words worth listening to!

Glad to see you posting!
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Old 09-21-2022, 09:43 PM   #478
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Predicting to be a monster of a storm.
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Old 09-21-2022, 10:07 PM   #479
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Latest models pushing a little more west
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Old 09-21-2022, 11:01 PM   #480
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Do we have a front coming down to push it to the East?
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Old 09-21-2022, 11:16 PM   #481
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Originally Posted by CoolHandLuke View Post
Do we have a front coming down to push it to the East?

Supposed to be. Time will tell how far south it plunges. If it stalls out around north or Central TX, the storm could skip across into mexico but as of now, its predicted to steer the storm NE somewhere between Louisiana snd Florida. At least thats how iím seeing it. That frontal boundary and where that High pressure dome moves will be key


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Old 09-22-2022, 07:57 AM   #482
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GFS this morning as of 6am is no bueno. Shows forecast track pushing further west. Even with the few storms this year, I have not seen a whole lot of accuracy from this model. So take it with a grain of salt, but keep an eye on it.



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Old 09-22-2022, 08:02 AM   #483
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I'm gonna ignore this post ^ in hopes that it is way wrong!
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:08 AM   #484
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Son of a gun, I thought we were done for the year.
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:21 AM   #485
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This particular run has it doing some
strange dogleg turn west around the 30th and I have no clue as to why. Itís still a LONG way out so it will likely continue changing each day.


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Old 09-22-2022, 08:27 AM   #486
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Well heck that last run is not nice.
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:32 AM   #487
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10 days out, after an entire summer of being wrong, I am confident the latest GFS run is not accurate.
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:37 AM   #488
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east or west I have a concern. Kiddo is in florida. Momma watching it like a hawk already
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:56 AM   #489
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NWS Corpus Christi, TX ,
The tropical wave in the southeastern Caribbean Sea is expected to
move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days. The
ensemble spreads of the track of invest 98L from the ECMWF/GEFS/CAN
by Wednesday extends from the Yucatan peninsula to the northern
Bahamas. Until this system develops into an organized tropical
depression, the ensemble spreads will remain large in the days 6-7
time frame. Will have to wait and see if the track of invest 98L
will provide any impacts from higher swells next week.
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:07 AM   #490
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Even the SCW guys think it will turn north much sooner. However they too have had a rough summer of predictions, so take it with a grain of salt
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:08 AM   #491
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Originally Posted by WItoTX View Post
10 days out, after an entire summer of being wrong, I am confident the latest GFS run is not accurate.

A lot of ensemble members keep it east. All the chatter Iíve read isnít buying western LA as a likely solution at all.


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Old 09-22-2022, 09:10 AM   #492
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Following
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:15 AM   #493
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Puff Puff - pass pass...

Watching...
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:21 AM   #494
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
A lot of ensemble members keep it east. All the chatter Iíve read isnít buying western LA as a likely solution at all.


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I agree with this. When I posted this mornings model run, I didnít understand what it was seeing little more than a week out. Given how its been horribly inaccurate all summer, I know it will shift around alot over the next 5-6 days.


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Old 09-22-2022, 09:29 AM   #495
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What's the space city weather boys saying??????

Rwc
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:37 AM   #496
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Originally Posted by Rwc View Post
What's the space city weather boys saying??????

Rwc
They said they will have a better idea in the next 24-48 hours, but for now the most likely scenario is that it stays east because thatís what all the models are saying
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:40 AM   #497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bloodstick View Post
GFS this morning as of 6am is no bueno. Shows forecast track pushing further west. Even with the few storms this year, I have not seen a whole lot of accuracy from this model. So take it with a grain of salt, but keep an eye on it.



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I like this! Bring it

Move a little west and I will be very happy

Sorry to everyone who may get upset
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:57 AM   #498
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I like to watch the Daily Brew on youtube from Mike's weather page. Here are the ensembles... They are all over the place. Right now it's just a WAG.

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Old 09-22-2022, 10:53 AM   #499
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paging frankie, paging frankie
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Old 09-22-2022, 11:13 AM   #500
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Was wondering if you were in need of rain or just a delta bravo, thanks for removing any doubt.
scroll right on by the trolls and delta bravos
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