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Old 09-16-2020, 01:18 PM   #1
TexasBob
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Default September Tropical Weather

We sure need a few fronts to clear the coast and drastically drop the odds for TX. That hasn't happened, so any thoughts on 90L? Too close for comfort and seems to be a pretty wide model spread based on the Storm2k chat. Space City Weather guys did mention it as something to keep an eye on this morning.
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Old 09-16-2020, 03:19 PM   #2
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Just saw that.
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Old 09-16-2020, 03:22 PM   #3
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State Operations Center just posted something could brew up in the SW gulf this week. They believe there is a high chance for some tropical formation.
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Old 09-16-2020, 03:29 PM   #4
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. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to
become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Old 09-16-2020, 03:51 PM   #5
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Looks like if it forms it will be heading towards Louisiana
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:05 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zjesse22 View Post
Looks like if it forms it will be heading towards Louisiana
It looks like it will be a weird one that just pops up in the gulf and moves NE.
https://www.windy.com/?2020-09-24-12,30.526,-97.567,5
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:20 PM   #7
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Tag
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:26 PM   #8
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My son has a gator hunt at JD Murphree this Saturday; which pretty much guarantees this will hit JD Murphree this saturday


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Old 09-17-2020, 06:25 AM   #9
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up 90% for development this morning.
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Old 09-17-2020, 07:56 AM   #10
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Looks a lot more organized this morning

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Old 09-17-2020, 08:02 AM   #11
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Just in time for me to be heading to the lease this weekend. I'll be tracking from there I suppose, but likely won't be posting much.

Very good discussion from Jeff Lindner this morning. Very low confidence in any forecast track due to very weak steering, and then a building ridge later in the weekend/early next week. Keep an eye on this one, and always follow the NHC for updates! HWRF Model has performed very well this year.. One to keep an eye on.

Quote:
Tropical depression or storm likely forming over the southwest Gulf of Mexico

Satellite images overnight show what is likely an organizing tropical system over the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico just east of the eastern Mexican coast. Deep convection has developed near or west of what has likely been the formation of a surface low pressure center. A USAF mission will investigate this feature later today to determine if a tropical depression or storm has formed.

Most global model guidance continues to develop 90L and moves it very slowly over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a cool front moves into the northern Gulf this weekend helping to trap the system south of the frontal boundary. It appears the trough associated with the front will help to pull 90L toward the NE into the west-central Gulf of Mexico, but not strong enough to pull the system toward the north-central Gulf. 90L then becomes under the influence of the building high pressure behind the front and will potentially turn westward toward the western or northwestern Gulf of Mexico slowly early next week. There are any number of possible track solutions on the table and confidence in any of the solutions is very low given the overall weak steering patterns that will be in place. It is possible that 90L will be over the Gulf of Mexico for a good portion of next week.

I cannot stress enough how low confidence any forecast solution is at this time with 90L given the various competing track factors and overall weak steering.

As for intensity, overall the pattern looks favorable in the near term for intensification and it is likely that a tropical storm will form as early as later today. Strengthening would be likely over the next 24-48 hours as the system will be over very warm waters in a low shear environment. Over the weekend, a very dry air mass associated with a frontal boundary will move into the northern and portions of the western Gulf of Mexico and some of this dry air may become entrained into the circulation and this could limit development. Most guidance keeps the system as a tropical storm while lingering over the Gulf of Mexico for several days.

Impacts:
The combination of lowering pressure in the southern Gulf combined with building high pressure over the OH valley will produce a moderate to strong pressure gradient over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico starting this weekend and lasting into next week. This is a favorable wind pattern for water level rise along the upper TX coast and using the GFS based extra-tropical storm surge forecast does show coastal water levels nearing 4.0 ft above MLLW by the Sunday high tides. Coastal flooding will be possible as early as Sunday and more likely into next week as the tropical system lingers over the western Gulf south of the upper TX coast resulting in a long fetch ENE/E wind flow.
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Old 09-17-2020, 01:25 PM   #12
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Tagged


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Old 09-17-2020, 01:38 PM   #13
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BOHICA...


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Old 09-17-2020, 01:58 PM   #14
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In


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Old 09-17-2020, 02:02 PM   #15
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In
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Old 09-17-2020, 02:09 PM   #16
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https://www.kbtx.com/2020/09/17/anot...next-few-days/
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Old 09-17-2020, 02:17 PM   #17
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In.
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Old 09-17-2020, 02:57 PM   #18
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Come on cool fronts.....
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Old 09-17-2020, 06:41 PM   #19
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now Tropical Depression Twenty-two.
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:02 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterdog View Post
now Tropical Depression Twenty-two.
And most likely TS Wilfred by tommorow.

Last edited by marshman; 09-17-2020 at 08:59 PM.
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Old 09-17-2020, 10:17 PM   #21
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Default September Tropical Weather

Time for the central and south Texas coast to start paying attention to 22. Spaghetti models are still crazy for it though.

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Old 09-17-2020, 10:35 PM   #22
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Gonna be a wet weekend at Laguna Atascosa scouting!
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Old 09-17-2020, 10:55 PM   #23
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In to follow and learn from the ones that know.


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Old 09-17-2020, 10:57 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marshman View Post
And most likely TS Wilfred by tommorow.
So what happens when we get to the letter "Z"?
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:04 PM   #25
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https://spacecityweather.com/a-tropi...pay-attention/
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Old 09-18-2020, 05:37 AM   #26
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Keeping an eye on this one. Thank you guys for passing on great knowledge on these.
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Old 09-18-2020, 05:59 AM   #27
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Just another 2020 mess. It could do this - that - or there for................

Someone unplug 2020 and let's do a hard boot on this crazy year..............
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Old 09-18-2020, 06:45 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bzzboyz View Post
So what happens when we get to the letter "Z"?

I believe they start using the Greek alphabet - alpha, beta...


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Old 09-18-2020, 07:47 AM   #29
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Definitely needs to be watched closely as the Texas coastline will be under the gun.





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Old 09-18-2020, 07:50 AM   #30
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Old 09-18-2020, 08:30 AM   #31
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In for TD 22 updates.
That storm is dancing!
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Old 09-18-2020, 08:30 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bzzboyz View Post
So what happens when we get to the letter "Z"?
After the "W" storm, they start using the Greek alphabet. There are no X,Y, or Z storm names. The NWS has a list of 6 rotating names for each letter of the alphabet ending with W... If they have a big storm, they retire that name and pick a new one to put in the list. The list is rotated each year... Each name for the letters are 3 male and 3 female names. They could not come up with enough names that end in X,Y, or Z to maintain the list, thus the ending at "W"... We've only had to jump over to the Greek names once before, and I think it was 2009...
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Old 09-18-2020, 08:38 AM   #33
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Man I swore I would never cuss rain being from South Texas but we could sure use a break down here. Been trying to get a pole barn up on my property for 3 weeks now. But its pretty much been raining every other day here. This is as far as the guys been able to get. Guess a all weather road will be my next project.
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Old 09-18-2020, 08:42 AM   #34
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Johnny and company - do you have any insight on how close a system in the gulf has to be before we start seeing water levels going up drastically etc?

As was said in another thread we’ve had hella high tides last couple mornings on some of our coastal holes and just wondering when in the time span of an approaching system with coastal potholes and marshes see dramatic increase in water levels / become not worth a hunt. Thanks for all the info
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Old 09-18-2020, 10:03 AM   #35
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whos who now.... 98l just stole name wilfred. td 22 ( gulf storm ) will be name alpha.
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:07 AM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastxhunter View Post
Johnny and company - do you have any insight on how close a system in the gulf has to be before we start seeing water levels going up drastically etc?

As was said in another thread weve had hella high tides last couple mornings on some of our coastal holes and just wondering when in the time span of an approaching system with coastal potholes and marshes see dramatic increase in water levels / become not worth a hunt. Thanks for all the info
Depends on the strength of the storm.
I live in Bridge City on Cow Bayou and Laura didn't raise the level but maybe a few inches. Now, if you are on the East side of the storm and it's got some significant wind, that's another story.
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:12 AM   #37
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This storm is looking like a mini Harvey Hugging the coastal areas till coming in around Houston, a slow mover
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:19 AM   #38
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Quote:
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This storm is looking like a mini Harvey Hugging the coastal areas till coming in around Houston, a slow mover
Yeah and GFS shows it make landfall, meander around, come back out and go up to the Galveston area.
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:19 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pilar View Post
This storm is looking like a mini Harvey Hugging the coastal areas till coming in around Houston, a slow mover
I thought that too, lets hope not.
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:33 AM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waterdog View Post
whos who now.... 98l just stole name wilfred. td 22 ( gulf storm ) will be name alpha.
Storm by Portugal just stole Alpha. This one will be Beta!
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:33 AM   #41
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Quote:
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Yeah and GFS shows it make landfall, meander around, come back out and go up to the Galveston area.
Windy.com app is awesome not 100% accurate but still awesome to follow the storms
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:41 AM   #42
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I thought that too, lets hope not.

I thought it too was scared to say it out loud


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Old 09-18-2020, 12:13 PM   #43
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I thought it too was scared to say it out loud


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The weather channel just put up a warning to Houston to prepare for 8-12 inch and possibly 20+ inch and lake Charles possibility of more heavy rain
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Old 09-18-2020, 12:24 PM   #44
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Next 7 day rain preview.

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Old 09-18-2020, 12:24 PM   #45
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Quote:
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Storm by Portugal just stole Alpha. This one will be Beta!




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Old 09-18-2020, 12:30 PM   #46
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We have have had / got rain in the forecast for the next week...last thing we need is for it hit here & dump on us when saturated.
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Old 09-18-2020, 12:32 PM   #47
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Well dang... sure don't need this in my area...
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Old 09-18-2020, 12:59 PM   #48
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Quote:
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We have have had / got rain in the forecast for the next week...last thing we need is for it hit here & dump on us when saturated.
Hope it’s not a ton because I know you guys have been getting f pounded
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Old 09-18-2020, 01:02 PM   #49
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Were currently servicing the Shell Perdido platform in the direct path of the storm. Already having 25 knot winds with 5-7 foot seas and slowly increasing as it gets closer. Nothing to crazy yet but were hoping to get out of here tonight. Fingers crossed!
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Old 09-18-2020, 01:07 PM   #50
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Pics dont do it justice but the swells are increasing.
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