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Old 07-08-2019, 08:45 AM   #1
Johnny
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I am leaving for vacation for Gulf Shores Saturday for vacation but looks like I am going to cancel. The probability is high for a tropical system to be effecting travel between the upper Texas coast and Gulf Shores during that time period. Glad we got travel insuarance.

Latest Euro model has it coming ashore just west of Sabine Pass as a hurricane. A little too close to home so would need to stay home to prepare.

Keeping a close eye on this one. Hopefully others will post up some maps shortly

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Old 07-08-2019, 08:49 AM   #2
deerplanter
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Last I seen it was coming in west of New Orleans, guess I'll have to pay more attention but west of Sabine keeps us on the dry side.
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Old 07-08-2019, 08:53 AM   #3
Bowtech Shooter
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Johnny

we have a house rented next week from Sunday to Sunday between Gulf Shores and Ft. Morgan. is it going to be a total Wash out. When Does it show coming in?

thanks for any info. Don't think we had insurance on ours
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Old 07-08-2019, 08:54 AM   #4
jds247
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Man I hope it doesn't hit Sabine Pass. That's right over the top of us.. I guess I better get prepared just incase.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:00 AM   #5
150class
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Dang. If it stays true to the projections it'll be our first rumble with a hurricane since moving to Houston.

In your next of the woods so will have to somewhat prepare also
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:03 AM   #6
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Please stay west, I have a new boat that I need to break in.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:08 AM   #7
CastAndBlast
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We are supposed to go offshore out of Galveston on Sat. It keeps looking worse and worse.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:11 AM   #8
BHDILLEY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 150class View Post
Dang. If it stays true to the projections it'll be our first rumble with a hurricane since moving to Houston.

In your next of the woods so will have to somewhat prepare also
Meh, you're in the Woodlands, you'll be fine! Typically you guys don't get it as severely as those closer to the coast, although that does not downplay that the Woodlands has and does receive damage from tropical systems. And if it comes in around Port Arthur or so, you'll be on the clean side of the storm and hopefully just get a few outer bands. Either way, prepare now and make sure you have the essentials. Good luck to y'all on riding out your first storm, if it comes in!
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:15 AM   #9
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In. Not liking the trends I'm hearing so far. Bene putting off the prep... time to fire up the generator and stock up on gas.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:24 AM   #10
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Latest model looks ugly for home. Would love to see this fizzle out!
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:26 AM   #11
150class
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Can anyone post the links they use to observe models?
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:29 AM   #12
Backwoods101
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We will be at the Frio, might have to extend our stay
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:30 AM   #13
hogslayer78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 150class View Post
Can anyone post the links they use to observe models?
X2
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:31 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CastAndBlast View Post
We are supposed to go offshore out of Galveston on Sat. It keeps looking worse and worse.
Ya I think I’d go ahead and reschedule
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:36 AM   #15
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This is just something to watch for now and act accordingly over the coming days. I'm in Conroe so a 45 mph wind gusts can turn the lights out quick because of all the pine trees up here. The same could be said with The Woodlands area. Not saying this will happen, just a scenario if this gets close to us.

I am thinking about cancelling vacation because our past 2 summer vacations along the coast involved tropical systems which in turn made for a lot of doing nothing. lol I don't feel like driving 10 hours to sit in a beach house with rainy weather nor do I feel like driving in it, especially if it is a tropical storm or hurricane.

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Old 07-08-2019, 09:36 AM   #16
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Won't even sniff the Gulf

Sorry, someone had to say it.
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:37 AM   #17
Neck
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https://spaghettimodels.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:45 AM   #18
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Wondering if I should keep my Galveston hotel reservations for this weekend?
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Old 07-08-2019, 09:46 AM   #19
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Tagged


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Old 07-08-2019, 09:52 AM   #20
RJK70
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Tagged. Hope it stays east of Houston.


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Old 07-08-2019, 09:55 AM   #21
Johnny Dangerr
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Wow...................
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:01 AM   #22
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Man thats my exact flight path to and from Florida this week. Should I just prepare for an extended stay in Florida if I am supposed to fly back Friday???
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:02 AM   #23
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Up
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:10 AM   #24
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We are heading to Orange Beach tomorrow? Do you think we will get rained out? Driving back home on Sunday and concerned about what we may have to drive through. Any thoughts?
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:13 AM   #25
CastAndBlast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKen86 View Post
Ya I think I’d go ahead and reschedule
Whew! This was going to be my son's first offshore trip too! Not sure I want to ruin him with a forecast like that.
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:26 AM   #26
Pin Oak DXT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CastAndBlast View Post
Whew! This was going to be my son's first offshore trip too! Not sure I want to ruin him with a forecast like that.
Don't worry. Your Captain will cancel the charter if this materializes. Hopefully you can get him out there again soon.
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:38 AM   #27
salth2o
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We're heading to Gulf Shores on Saturday as well. My daughters softball team is scheduled to play.

Definitely hope this thing fizzles out.
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:41 AM   #28
BHDILLEY
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European model shows this thing coming ashore around the upper Texas Coast late Saturday.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro...713-2100z.html
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Old 07-08-2019, 10:51 AM   #29
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Don't cancel. If I cancelled every time they expect rain you would stay home over half the time. Go and enjoy the cool rain

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Old 07-08-2019, 11:18 AM   #30
TexasBob
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Any stats on how often the NHC tags an invest over land? That can't be too common.
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Old 07-08-2019, 11:38 AM   #31
Mike
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I trust Johnny 100% on weather, plain and simple. If he has a concern then I will keep my eyes on it as well.

I have spent some time on a few pages and there are a lot of people out there discounting this whole deal and claiming its nothing, there's nothing out there. Some are claiming the models are old, they aren't accurate, it's nuts. I just don't get it at all that people would try and downplay the whole deal.
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Old 07-08-2019, 11:40 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowflake Killa View Post
Don't cancel. If I cancelled every time they expect rain you would stay home over half the time. Go and enjoy the cool rain

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If the OP is cancelling his plans I would listen to what else he is saying. It's not the OP first time doing this weather thing.
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Old 07-08-2019, 11:43 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by USMC View Post
If the OP is cancelling his plans I would listen to what else he is saying. It's not the OP first time doing this weather thing.


What does he do BTW?




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Old 07-08-2019, 11:48 AM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny View Post
I am leaving for vacation for Gulf Shores Saturday for vacation but looks like I am going to cancel. The probability is high for a tropical system to be effecting travel between the upper Texas coast and Gulf Shores during that time period. Glad we got travel insuarance.

Latest Euro model has it coming ashore just west of Sabine Pass as a hurricane. A little too close to home so would need to stay home to prepare.

Keeping a close eye on this one. Hopefully others will post up some maps shortly

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

We are supposed to be coming to Bolivar the 21st for a week, and I have been considering insuring the trip for a while....There will be a lot of broken hearted kids if something spins up around then...
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Old 07-08-2019, 11:49 AM   #35
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Shoot supposed to leave for LA. on Sunday. It may be a real wet drive
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:02 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kdurham View Post
What does he do BTW?




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Johnny is the reason I sent the family off to DALLAS just prior to our 50” of rain during Harvey. Not sure what he “does”, but when it comes to things of the gulf he has my full confidence.

He was DAYS in front of any local or national weather in regards to Harvey. You can find somewhere in the Harvey thread(s) he states something to the effect of - this could be a “catastrophic rain event”.
Nailed it.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:11 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JLivi1224 View Post
Johnny is the reason I sent the family off to DALLAS just prior to our 50” of rain during Harvey. Not sure what he “does”, but when it comes to things of the gulf he has my full confidence.

He was DAYS in front of any local or national weather in regards to Harvey. You can find somewhere in the Harvey thread(s) he states something to the effect of - this could be a “catastrophic rain event”.
Nailed it.
Truth.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:12 PM   #38
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Watching this closely as I am supposed to head to Bolivar Thursday morning-Saturday. Thanks for keeping us posted
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:12 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JLivi1224 View Post
Johnny is the reason I sent the family off to DALLAS just prior to our 50” of rain during Harvey. Not sure what he “does”, but when it comes to things of the gulf he has my full confidence.

He was DAYS in front of any local or national weather in regards to Harvey. You can find somewhere in the Harvey thread(s) he states something to the effect of - this could be a “catastrophic rain event”.
Nailed it.
Yeah, but it didn't even sniff the gulf.... remember?
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:16 PM   #40
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guys with propane back up generators check your tanks. Gas companies always let tanks get low in summer due to limited usage.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:19 PM   #41
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How soon after this passes will bays return to normal. I’ve got a trip July 20
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:21 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by armadillophil View Post
How soon after this passes will bays return to normal. I’ve got a trip July 20
Let some time pass to see what this really does. It may not impact Texas much at all. Wait and see.
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:24 PM   #43
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In
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:36 PM   #44
kurt68
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All beaches are closed in Mississippi for toxic algae. Wow!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-bacteria.html
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:37 PM   #45
.243 WSSM
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Very well could be an east coast storm as well. Give it a little more time to make up its mind. But either way, impact would be this weekend if it evolves
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:41 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kdurham View Post
What does he do BTW?




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Johnny's full time gig is a cocktail waiter at La Bare's!
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:42 PM   #47
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Supposed to be heading to Destin on Thursday and returning Tuesday. I’ve let everyone know what’s going on and they all still want to go. I’m getting outvoted 7-1. I don’t see the point in driving 11 hours just to be cooped up in a hotel room due to a storm. And I know that they close I-10 when a big storm hits so getting home will be a nightmare. I hope I’m wrong and it’s beautiful weather
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Old 07-08-2019, 12:59 PM   #48
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I'll be keeping an eye on this thanks Johnny for keeping us posted!
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:17 PM   #49
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Quote:
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Johnny's full time gig is a cocktail waiter at La Bare's!
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Old 07-08-2019, 01:20 PM   #50
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Great
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