2019 Astros Season Thread "Take it back" - 2

[mr. buck]

I really feel like we are dodging bullets and extending our window with Stroman and Bauer landing with non-contenders. I'm not sure a contender signing Robbie Ray, Wheeler or Syndegard requires us to give up a top prospect to remain the favorite to win the AL.

Luhnow's patience is paying off. Btw, who wouldn't do this deal, Tucker and Whitley for DeGrom?

[Sackett]

JV continues to be an absolute stud.

No way Cole stays unless he signs a 2 yr deal to match Verlanders. No reason for him to do so. I’d love it but Dodger Blue or Pinstripes is where he is headed I think. He is a SoCal guy and would be crazy to pass the money they are going to throw at him.

I’d love to get him but Boras isn’t going to give a sweetheart deal, I don’t think.


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With state income tax, they ard going to have to pay him a lot more!

[systemnt]

Wheeler.... u heard it here

[Tshelly]

Abreu moved up to the 40 man roster. Most likely means one of the relievers is going to the IL.


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[El General]

Abreu moved up to the 40 man roster. Most likely means one of the relievers is going to the IL.


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Abreu has been on the 40 man all year because he was rule 5 eligible last fall. Pressly went on the DL.

[Tshelly]

Abreu has been on the 40 man all year because he was rule 5 eligible last fall. Pressly went on the DL.

Ya that’s what I meant. Mostly why I always screen shot the tweets lol. Main thing is to get Pressly right for the playoffs


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[TildenHunter]

2019 Astros Season Thread "Take it back" - 2

With state income tax, they ard going to have to pay him a lot more!

They will...I think we can do 7/yrs for $200MM which would be a stretch. We have a lot of people that are going to require more money very soon. Someone will give him 8/yrs $250MM


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[systemnt]

Boras will get coles money from the west coast..

I still think the investment needs to be in a strong or couple of strong relievers....
The core 3-4 havnt lost games...the relief have... repeatedly

[El General]

They will...I think we can do 7/yrs for $200MM which would be a stretch. We have a lot of people that are going to require more money very soon. Someone will give him 8/yrs $250MM


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Under Luhnow, the Astros have never given a pitcher a deal longer than three years. I just don't see them giving Cole a deal that ends when he is 36 years old, even though he has been relatively healthy and profiles as a guy that could pitch that long.

[TildenHunter]

Under Luhnow, the Astros have never given a pitcher a deal longer than three years. I just don't see them giving Cole a deal that ends when he is 36 years old, even though he has been relatively healthy and profiles as a guy that could pitch that long.

True but Cole is 28 and Verlander is 36 and we have him signed until after his 38 year old season. No reason to think Cole wont be solid until he is at least 35 years old. I have seen a lot worse deals made by teams to lock up a guy for his prime by paying him a lot more money when he was clearly passed it i.e. Pujols.

If ever you were going to make a push for a long term pitcher, I would want it to be a guy who is 28, former #1 pick who has a proven track record. Not saying it is going to happen.....I don't think it will. I just think it makes more sense then nearly anyone else in the league at this time.

[bcdom15]

If I had to guess, Cole definitely going back to CA, especially if he wins the Cy Young this season. He's on pace for 300 K's which has only happened 3 times in Astros franchise (once by the same guy)

[El General]

Per this website Houston's estimated total payroll is around $171 million for 2020 including estimates for arbitration eligible players based on comps.

The luxury tax threshold for 2020 is $208 million. Crane has said that the Astros will probably not exceed the luxury tax. So, that leaves $37 million dollars at the very most that the Astros have to spend for 2020. But, the Astros have not approached that threshold under Crane/Luhnow. So, maybe the budget is more like $20-25 million. I'm not sure, except that I read somewhere that the Astros have something like $14 million in budget to pick up a player for this year, which would indicate their budget is somewhere around $172 million for this year ($158 million current payroll).

In addition to losing Cole, the Astros will lose Robinson Chirinos, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, Collin McHugh, Wade Miley, and Will Harris. They will need to replace two or three starting pitchers, four relievers, and their starting catcher. That makes that $37 million look small. And, if it is more like $20 million or $25 million, that looks even smaller.

Maybe two of those positions can be covered by the farm, but that is kinda just a hope and a wish as there aren't many obvious candidates that appear MLB ready for the bullpen or the rotation by the beginning of the year. There aren't any candidates for starting catcher in the high minors.

With Springer being eligible for free agency after 2020, that makes signing Cole to a premium deal even less likely. I think it is unlikely that Cole will take any contract for less than 7 years, and it is unlikely that Cole will give the Astros any meaningful discount on the number of years or average annual value.

This is why young players like Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley are so valuable to a team. While they are young, they are cheap as hell and allow for a team to spend on free agents without exceeding the luxury tax. If Whitley and Martin had delivered this year with the big club, then the Astros could have been in a position to possibly sign Cole and Springer, but that hasn't happened.

If they can trade Reddick during the offseason and insert Tucker into right field, then that would help the cause quite a bit.

[systemnt]

Machetes back

[systemnt]

Kemp was the trade for maldanado

[MacDaddy67]

Breaking News

Alverez, Tucker, Whitley traded to the Nationals for Scherzer.......