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2019 Houston Astros season thread “Take It Back”

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    105 is absolutely doable for the reasons rtp posted about what was done last year even with the B and C teams playing a lot.

    Still have concerns at catcher... martines arm scared off a lot of steals...and he played well till playoffs...
    McCann was a good catcher with bad knees but had a bat.
    Not sure we have anything armwise, catching wise is mediocre to ok, maybe semipro bats...
    Stassi hits a blind squirrel every now and then..but he doesnt scare anyone on base paths...

    Still...
    105.

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      105

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        I think they're right at 100.

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          Originally posted by rtp View Post
          It's just a prediction. But tell me what did they lose that they havent added back? They won 103 last year with a crippled Altuve, a broken Correa and a constant rotation in the outfield. I see more wins within in the division as I believe it is weaker overall than last year.


          I agree with this, possibly even stronger than last year as a team. Oakland shouldn’t be as good or Seattle within the division.


          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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            I believe we will win around 100 games. I believe starting pitching, besides the two horses, will have their struggles at times. I can’t wait for the season to start. Hope we stay healthy at all positions this year. Really that is the main key to success.

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              Morton, Keuchel, and LMJ represent significant lost production that the Stros would be lucky to get 80% replaced by McHugh, Miley, and Peacock not to mention robbing McHugh and Peacock from the bullpen. Bradley is good, but injury prone. Correa has missed 100+ games in the last two seasons. Altuve is coming off his worst season since 2015. Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White mean the Stros will be below average offensively at both 1b and DH. Springer is coming off of his worst year as a pro and his prime is likely behind him. Reddick is coming off his worst year as a pro and his prime is definitely behind him. We replaced McCann and Marteeen with Robinson Chirinos. When someone gets hurt, we won't have Marwin to step in.

              Bregman is a ****ing stud though.

              That is a little too much doom and gloom, but it is ample reason to think this team is unlikely to be better than last year.

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                Originally posted by El General View Post
                Morton, Keuchel, and LMJ represent significant lost production that the Stros would be lucky to get 80% replaced by McHugh, Miley, and Peacock not to mention robbing McHugh and Peacock from the bullpen. Bradley is good, but injury prone. Correa has missed 100+ games in the last two seasons. Altuve is coming off his worst season since 2015. Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White mean the Stros will be below average offensively at both 1b and DH. Springer is coming off of his worst year as a pro and his prime is likely behind him. Reddick is coming off his worst year as a pro and his prime is definitely behind him. We replaced McCann and Marteeen with Robinson Chirinos. When someone gets hurt, we won't have Marwin to step in.

                Bregman is a ****ing stud though.

                That is a little too much doom and gloom, but it is ample reason to think this team is unlikely to be better than last year.
                Morton, keuchel, and lmj were out significantly last season.....and they still did what they did..with mchugh, peacock, pressley and the others.....
                And now some other strengths have been added...
                Its a stronger team.. even if you go to the B or C team...its a stronger team.

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                  98-100 Wins. This team is very good. Health will play a huge role also.

                  They will trade for at least one guy at the deadline again. Astros are known for that and have done a good job at it.

                  I like this team

                  The roster is finalized. The 25 man that is

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                    Originally posted by El General View Post
                    Morton, Keuchel, and LMJ represent significant lost production that the Stros would be lucky to get 80% replaced by McHugh, Miley, and Peacock not to mention robbing McHugh and Peacock from the bullpen. Bradley is good, but injury prone. Correa has missed 100+ games in the last two seasons. Altuve is coming off his worst season since 2015. Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White mean the Stros will be below average offensively at both 1b and DH. Springer is coming off of his worst year as a pro and his prime is likely behind him. Reddick is coming off his worst year as a pro and his prime is definitely behind him. We replaced McCann and Marteeen with Robinson Chirinos. When someone gets hurt, we won't have Marwin to step in.

                    Bregman is a ****ing stud though.

                    That is a little too much doom and gloom, but it is ample reason to think this team is unlikely to be better than last year.
                    Boo this man

                    106 regular season wins, book it

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                      Originally posted by El General View Post
                      Morton, Keuchel, and LMJ represent significant lost production that the Stros would be lucky to get 80% replaced by McHugh, Miley, and Peacock not to mention robbing McHugh and Peacock from the bullpen. Bradley is good, but injury prone. Correa has missed 100+ games in the last two seasons. Altuve is coming off his worst season since 2015. Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White mean the Stros will be below average offensively at both 1b and DH. Springer is coming off of his worst year as a pro and his prime is likely behind him. Reddick is coming off his worst year as a pro and his prime is definitely behind him. We replaced McCann and Marteeen with Robinson Chirinos. When someone gets hurt, we won't have Marwin to step in.

                      Bregman is a ****ing stud though.

                      That is a little too much doom and gloom, but it is ample reason to think this team is unlikely to be better than last year.
                      Love the discussion! I see it as Keuchel was solid not great and expect Miley to be the same. Lance only pitched so so and Morton was unhealthy before the season ended. McHugh has been a workhorse in the rotation or in the pen and dont see that changing and Peacock will lock down the 5th spot quite nicely until Whitley arrives. The bullpen is going to be stronger with a full year of Pressley, Osuna and James. The pen will get stronger when Peacock moves back there on Whitley's arrival. Diaz is equivalent to Marwin numbers wise(we will see if he has the clutch gene though). I still see this team being better than last year. If the pitching stays healthy this team is going to be a monster.

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                        Originally posted by systemnt View Post
                        Morton, keuchel, and lmj were out significantly last season.....and they still did what they did..with mchugh, peacock, pressley and the others.....
                        And now some other strengths have been added...
                        Its a stronger team.. even if you go to the B or C team...its a stronger team.
                        Keuchel threw 200+ innings last year. Morton threw 167 innings. McCullers threw 128 innings (a career high).

                        Miley, McHugh, and Peacock are not better than Keuchel, Morton, and McCullers. 2 out of 3 of those guys were on the team last year and were relelgated to the bullpen because Keuchel, McCullers, and Morton were better.

                        Miley hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2014. McHugh hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2015. Peacock has thrown over 85 innings twice as a professional (131 in 2014 and 132 in 2017).

                        So, we are unlikely to replace the innings those guys threw and even if they do replace them, they will almost definitely not be the same quality innings.

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                          Originally posted by El General View Post
                          Keuchel threw 200+ innings last year. Morton threw 167 innings. McCullers threw 128 innings (a career high).

                          Miley, McHugh, and Peacock are not better than Keuchel, Morton, and McCullers. 2 out of 3 of those guys were on the team last year and were relelgated to the bullpen because Keuchel, McCullers, and Morton were better.

                          Miley hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2014. McHugh hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2015. Peacock has thrown over 85 innings twice as a professional (131 in 2014 and 132 in 2017).

                          So, we are unlikely to replace the innings those guys threw and even if they do replace them, they will almost definitely not be the same quality innings.
                          Throwing a lot of innings does not indicate throwing well.....or throwing healthy.
                          None of them were par for their courses ..self admittedly so.
                          So success was in spite of their performance..not because of it.
                          The pitching staff is stronger. The fielding and batting is stronger...the depth...is stronger... hell even the guys that play orbit are stronger..

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                            Originally posted by systemnt View Post
                            Throwing a lot of innings does not indicate throwing well.....or throwing healthy.
                            None of them were par for their courses ..self admittedly so.
                            So success was in spite of their performance..not because of it.
                            The pitching staff is stronger. The fielding and batting is stronger...the depth...is stronger... hell even the guys that play orbit are stronger..
                            Morton - 3.13 ERA over 167 and 3.1 WAR in 167 innings - Best statistical season of his career

                            McCullers - 3.86 ERA over 128 innings and 2.5 WAR - Probably the second best season of his career.

                            Keuchel - 3.74 ERA over 204 innings and a 3.6 WAR. Probably the second best season of his career.

                            That is alot of high quality innings to replace. If you project McHugh to replace Keuchel, Miley to replace Morton, and Peacock to replace McCullers then all three of those guys would have to have tie the best seasons of their careers to replace those numbers. And, in the case of Miley and McHugh that is the 2012 and 2015 seasons respectively.

                            I think there is a better than 50% that McHugh gets close to what Keuchel did last year. There is maybe a 40% chance that Miley does what Morton did last year. I'd call that chance close to zero if it weren't for Brett Strom and the Astros record on turning dudes around. I think that Peacock can give the Astros about what McCullers did last year overall.

                            The rotation won't be as strong. And, with Peacock and McHugh subtracted from the bullpen and Joe Smith out with an injury, the bullpen won't be as deep at the very least and probably not as strong overall.

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                              Dude..
                              O.k...

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by systemnt View Post
                                Throwing a lot of innings does not indicate throwing well.....or throwing healthy.
                                None of them were par for their courses ..self admittedly so.
                                So success was in spite of their performance..not because of it.
                                The pitching staff is stronger. The fielding and batting is stronger...the depth...is stronger... hell even the guys that play orbit are stronger..
                                With Brantley and Chirinos, they are probably a stronger lineup as hitters, but they aren't better defensively. Reddick and Springer have both gotten worse as defenders and Brantley is a poor defender. Chirinos isn't a better defensive catcher than either of the dudes they lost.

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