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Tropical Weather Discussion 2018

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    We’ve had a total of 1.4” as of this morning since June at our place in Weesatche, we still need rain.


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      I wouldn't worry about it. I flew outta Houston last year for a wedding in Colorado when it was still forecasted that Harvey would be a TS. Truck stayed at the parking spot, high and dry the whole time.
      Originally posted by johnpaul View Post
      Assuming this thing turns into a tropical storm, when are we looking at it making landfall?

      I have a flight out of Houston to go elk hunting Friday afternoon and if it makes landfall around Houston I'm thinking about cancelling and just driving.
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        Just got a text from our ranch foreman and looks like we've had 7-9 inches on most parts of our ranch in the past few days!! We sure needed it!!

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          Originally posted by Merc View Post
          I wouldn't worry about it. I flew outta Houston last year for a wedding in Colorado when it was still forecasted that Harvey would be a TS. Truck stayed at the parking spot, high and dry the whole time.

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          The only reason I am considering driving is because I don't want to worry about flights being delayed or missing my connecting flight and in turn missing a half or even whole day of hunting. I am not worried about my car flooding or not getting back home.

          There is a chance that Houston gets absolutely no rain but I need to make the decision 24 hours in advance in order to get refunded the money for my flight and rental car.

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            Originally posted by johnpaul View Post
            The only reason I am considering driving is because I don't want to worry about flights being delayed or missing my connecting flight and in turn missing a half or even whole day of hunting. I am not worried about my car flooding or not getting back home.

            There is a chance that Houston gets absolutely no rain but I need to make the decision 24 hours in advance in order to get refunded the money for my flight and rental car.
            Are you flying meat home (Assuming you get one)? What is your set up for that? I only ask because the only reason I drive is to get meat home, and to be 100% sure all my gear makes it to my destination.

            Sorry OP, I know its off topic.

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              Originally posted by WItoTX View Post
              Are you flying meat home (Assuming you get one)? What is your set up for that? I only ask because the only reason I drive is to get meat home, and to be 100% sure all my gear makes it to my destination.

              Sorry OP, I know its off topic.
              We are not flying meat home. If the storm is supposed to dump 10”~ of rain on Houston still by Thursday morning forecasts then we are just going to have to drive I think.

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                Originally posted by johnpaul View Post
                We are not flying meat home. If the storm is supposed to dump 10”~ of rain on Houston still by Thursday morning forecasts then we are just going to have to drive I think.
                At this point in time, I don't think anyone knows for sure what types of conditions Houston may have. Going to have wait and make a call on that late tomorrow or Early Thursday most likely.

                Looking at latest batch of computer runs, not seeing a whole lot being made up of this at this point.. meaning not seeing a Strong TS/Hurricane type situation. Never know though when talking about the bath water GOM though so don't take my opinions as more than just that. Euro hasn't run yet this afternoon(will be shortly) and it has been the most bullish on this one. It showed a TS most likely coming ashore around Corpus on Friday. 12Z GFS doesnt do much with it, and never closes it off at surface but the highest vorticity comes ashore slightly N of Corpus Friday morning. Others vary in solutions, but basically the same at this time. Trend is weak & sloppy.. Hopefully it stays that way.

                Isaac is still one to watch. GFS & Euro both buried it into Central America, but need to keep an eye on that one as well.

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                  Don't know how accurate/reliable the CMC model is, but it has Issac passing through the Yucatan slot.

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                    My hurricane tracker app just alerted 95L now has a high probability of developing into a cyclone.

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                      Originally posted by dphillips62 View Post
                      My hurricane tracker app just alerted 95L now has a high probability of developing into a cyclone.
                      Same!

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                        Great...I am supposed to land in Houston from an Argentina business trip Friday morning at 5:30am. Wonder if I can sneak in before this hits?

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                          The NAM is showing a 1008mb TD or TS making landfall around Corpus Christi Friday afternoon. This is just one models output. Either way looks defiant that additional moisture will be streaming into Texas over the weekend
                          Attached Files

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                            Originally posted by SaltwaterSlick View Post
                            Just got a text from our ranch foreman and looks like we've had 7-9 inches on most parts of our ranch in the past few days!! We sure needed it!!
                            Good news! I figured you guys got it too!

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                              Yea, couple of our dirt tanks have a bunch of catfish in them and I'm pretty sure they weren't far from being overheated in the low water... Looks like that issue has been averted for now!

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                                Looks like my guided teal hunt in Katy,Tx for Saterday morning will still be a go then.

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