hurricane season 2022

[bloodstick]

hurricane season 2022

Do we have a front coming down to push it to the East?

Supposed to be. Time will tell how far south it plunges. If it stalls out around north or Central TX, the storm could skip across into mexico but as of now, its predicted to steer the storm NE somewhere between Louisiana snd Florida. At least thats how i’m seeing it. That frontal boundary and where that High pressure dome moves will be key


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[bloodstick]

GFS this morning as of 6am is no bueno. Shows forecast track pushing further west. Even with the few storms this year, I have not seen a whole lot of accuracy from this model. So take it with a grain of salt, but keep an eye on it.



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[breederbuck33]

I'm gonna ignore this post ^ in hopes that it is way wrong!

[rtjh]

Son of a gun, I thought we were done for the year.

[bloodstick]

This particular run has it doing some
strange dogleg turn west around the 30th and I have no clue as to why. It’s still a LONG way out so it will likely continue changing each day.


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[Mexico]

Well heck that last run is not nice.

[WItoTX]

10 days out, after an entire summer of being wrong, I am confident the latest GFS run is not accurate.

[Quackerbox]

east or west I have a concern. Kiddo is in florida. Momma watching it like a hawk already

[waterdog]

NWS Corpus Christi, TX ,
The tropical wave in the southeastern Caribbean Sea is expected to
move to the west-northwest over the next couple of days. The
ensemble spreads of the track of invest 98L from the ECMWF/GEFS/CAN
by Wednesday extends from the Yucatan peninsula to the northern
Bahamas. Until this system develops into an organized tropical
depression, the ensemble spreads will remain large in the days 6-7
time frame. Will have to wait and see if the track of invest 98L
will provide any impacts from higher swells next week.

[WItoTX]

Even the SCW guys think it will turn north much sooner. However they too have had a rough summer of predictions, so take it with a grain of salt

[TexasBob]

10 days out, after an entire summer of being wrong, I am confident the latest GFS run is not accurate.

A lot of ensemble members keep it east. All the chatter I’ve read isn’t buying western LA as a likely solution at all.


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[Saltaholic]

Following

[Johnny Dangerr]

Puff Puff - pass pass...

Watching...

[bloodstick]

A lot of ensemble members keep it east. All the chatter I’ve read isn’t buying western LA as a likely solution at all.


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I agree with this. When I posted this mornings model run, I didn’t understand what it was seeing little more than a week out. Given how its been horribly inaccurate all summer, I know it will shift around alot over the next 5-6 days.


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[Rwc]

What's the space city weather boys saying??????

Rwc