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    Draw Hunt Analysis 2

    Here is a write-up I started last year, just updated the numbers.

    Here’s an interesting analysis (for me anyway, probably nobody else). I have been a participant in the draw system for 23 years now. In the descriptions below, ‘the change’ refers to the changes to the program that occurred a few years ago (applying for multiple hunts within a category).

    Direct comparisons to other hunters/success will never be comparable due to loyalty points, loyalty points averaged by group members, and an individual’s preference in where you apply (I tend to just put in for ‘the good spots’) as well as applying for the really difficult categories (like Pronghorn). I’d always thought I was fairly unlucky in the drawn hunts (if you just look at numbers and percentages). But, over the last 23 years, I’ve gone on 19 hunts (12 drawn and 7 stand-by). That’s not too bad (83%).

    In 23 years, I’ve been drawn 12 times (52% yearly success overall), 8 times before the change (35%), 4 times after (133%).

    In 23 years, I’ve applied for 268 total hunts (12/year), 143 before the change (7/year), 125 after (42/year).

    Another way of looking at ‘success rate’ is to look at the number of times drawn relative to the number of individual hunts applied for, which is 5.6% before the change (8 of 143) and 3.2% post-change (4 of 125). But, to be fair, the new system has only been in place 3 years.

    The most hunts I’ve ever been drawn for in 1 year was 3 (last year). Also drawn for 2 hunts in a year several years ago. The rest were only 1 hunt per year.

    I’ve applied every year since 1994. The lowest number of hunts I have put in for in a given year was 2, the most was 17 prior to the change, 52 post-change. The longest I’ve gone without being drawn for something is 4 years.

    I’ve applied for 22 different categories before the change, 24 after the change (28 total different categories).

    Of the 28 different categories I’ve applied for, I’ve only been drawn in 5 of them (for 23 different categories, I’ve never been selected).

    I started applying in 1994, but didn’t get to carry a rifle on any drawn hunt until 2009 (16 years).

    In addition to the hunts I was drawn for, I have also gone stand-by for 7 hunts in 7 years and was selected each time.

    Here’s a breakdown of individual hunt categories:

    Archery Deer – I’ve applied in 18 years, 15 pre-change (drawn 5 times), 3 post-change (drawn 1).
    Exotic – I’ve applied in 13 years, 10 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Gun Deer Antlerless/Spike – I’ve applied 14 years, 11 pre-change (never drawn), 3 post-change (drawn once).
    Gun Deer Either Sex - I’ve applied in 23 years, 20 pre-change (drawn once), 3 post-change (drawn once).
    Pronghorn - I’ve applied in 20 years, 17 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Spring Turkey - I’ve applied in 16 years, 13 pre-change (drawn twice), 3 post-change (not drawn).
    Guided Exotic - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
    Guided Deer - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
    Private Lands Either Sex - I’ve applied 11 years, 9 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Guided Bighorn Sheep - I’ve applied 7 years, 5 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Gun Deer Management - I’ve applied 11 years, 8 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Archery Exotic - I’ve applied 5 years, 3 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Feral Hog - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change. Never been drawn.
    Javelina - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change (never drawn), 1 post-change (drawn).
    Archery Mule Deer - I’ve applied 9 years, 6 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Gun Mule Deer - I’ve applied 10 years, 7 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Private Lands Pronghorn - I’ve applied 6 years, 4 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Alligator - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Private Lands Antlerless/Spike - I’ve applied 5 years, 2 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Guided Gemsbok - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Crossbow - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change (now defunct). Never been drawn.
    Guided Oryx - I’ve applied 2 years, 1 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
    Alligator Management - I’ve applied 2 years, both post-change. Never been drawn.
    E-postcard archery deer- I’ve applied 2 years, post-change, and never been drawn.
    E-postcard multispecies- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
    E-postcard waterfowl/pheasant- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
    National Refuge Exotic- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
    National Refuge General Deer- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn

    #2
    ...and I thought I was a "Draw Junkie"!!

    Remember the scene in The Jerk when Steve Martin runs out of the house yelling :The new phone books are here! The new phone books are here!" - ?

    That used to be me every year when the new draw booklet came out. It's a little less exciting now that everything is on line and I've been lots of places....but I'll still put in for a dozen categories or so, like I do every year.

    Comment


      #3
      It would be nice to be able to compare the spots you applied for to see how lucky your are. I've been applying since the mid 70's. I waited 20 years to get drawn for the Chap. Now I'm back waiting again.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Deerguy View Post
        Here is a write-up I started last year, just updated the numbers.

        Here’s an interesting analysis (for me anyway, probably nobody else). I have been a participant in the draw system for 23 years now. In the descriptions below, ‘the change’ refers to the changes to the program that occurred a few years ago (applying for multiple hunts within a category).

        Direct comparisons to other hunters/success will never be comparable due to loyalty points, loyalty points averaged by group members, and an individual’s preference in where you apply (I tend to just put in for ‘the good spots’) as well as applying for the really difficult categories (like Pronghorn). I’d always thought I was fairly unlucky in the drawn hunts (if you just look at numbers and percentages). But, over the last 23 years, I’ve gone on 19 hunts (12 drawn and 7 stand-by). That’s not too bad (83%).

        In 23 years, I’ve been drawn 12 times (52% yearly success overall), 8 times before the change (35%), 4 times after (133%).

        In 23 years, I’ve applied for 268 total hunts (12/year), 143 before the change (7/year), 125 after (42/year).

        Another way of looking at ‘success rate’ is to look at the number of times drawn relative to the number of individual hunts applied for, which is 5.6% before the change (8 of 143) and 3.2% post-change (4 of 125). But, to be fair, the new system has only been in place 3 years.

        The most hunts I’ve ever been drawn for in 1 year was 3 (last year). Also drawn for 2 hunts in a year several years ago. The rest were only 1 hunt per year.

        I’ve applied every year since 1994. The lowest number of hunts I have put in for in a given year was 2, the most was 17 prior to the change, 52 post-change. The longest I’ve gone without being drawn for something is 4 years.

        I’ve applied for 22 different categories before the change, 24 after the change (28 total different categories).

        Of the 28 different categories I’ve applied for, I’ve only been drawn in 5 of them (for 23 different categories, I’ve never been selected).

        I started applying in 1994, but didn’t get to carry a rifle on any drawn hunt until 2009 (16 years).

        In addition to the hunts I was drawn for, I have also gone stand-by for 7 hunts in 7 years and was selected each time.

        Here’s a breakdown of individual hunt categories:

        Archery Deer – I’ve applied in 18 years, 15 pre-change (drawn 5 times), 3 post-change (drawn 1).
        Exotic – I’ve applied in 13 years, 10 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Gun Deer Antlerless/Spike – I’ve applied 14 years, 11 pre-change (never drawn), 3 post-change (drawn once).
        Gun Deer Either Sex - I’ve applied in 23 years, 20 pre-change (drawn once), 3 post-change (drawn once).
        Pronghorn - I’ve applied in 20 years, 17 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Spring Turkey - I’ve applied in 16 years, 13 pre-change (drawn twice), 3 post-change (not drawn).
        Guided Exotic - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
        Guided Deer - I’ve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
        Private Lands Either Sex - I’ve applied 11 years, 9 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Guided Bighorn Sheep - I’ve applied 7 years, 5 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Gun Deer Management - I’ve applied 11 years, 8 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Archery Exotic - I’ve applied 5 years, 3 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Feral Hog - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change. Never been drawn.
        Javelina - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change (never drawn), 1 post-change (drawn).
        Archery Mule Deer - I’ve applied 9 years, 6 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Gun Mule Deer - I’ve applied 10 years, 7 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Private Lands Pronghorn - I’ve applied 6 years, 4 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Alligator - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Private Lands Antlerless/Spike - I’ve applied 5 years, 2 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Guided Gemsbok - I’ve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Crossbow - I’ve applied 2 years, both pre-change (now defunct). Never been drawn.
        Guided Oryx - I’ve applied 2 years, 1 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
        Alligator Management - I’ve applied 2 years, both post-change. Never been drawn.
        E-postcard archery deer- I’ve applied 2 years, post-change, and never been drawn.
        E-postcard multispecies- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
        E-postcard waterfowl/pheasant- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
        National Refuge Exotic- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
        National Refuge General Deer- I’ve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
        When you were on standby, did you have to sign up for the hunt and not get selected in order to be a standby participant. Or did you just show up at the standby table and hope you get picked?

        Comment


          #5
          Applying for 42 hunts a year?! Wow.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by RGV Hunter View Post
            When you were on standby, did you have to sign up for the hunt and not get selected in order to be a standby participant. Or did you just show up at the standby table and hope you get picked?
            You can do it both ways. I always had put in for the hunt that I showed up standby for, but, you don't have to. You can be a standby participant at just about all the hunts (it will usually tell you if they don't do standbys), whether you applied for it or not.

            Comment


              #7
              I do an analysis as well. Mine does not go nearly as far back as Ive only been hunting here in Texas for the last 3 years. But each year I put all the draws on and the dates and then based on my days off distance and such I put in for my the ones that work.
              Attached Files

              Comment


                #8
                Called half a dozen places last year to hear.... No Standby . What am I doing wrong or are more places limiting standby hunters if all slots are paid up?

                PS... These were spots in the brochure that did not state No Standbys

                Just found this.

                Hunt positions not claimed (paid for) by drawn applicants before specified deadlines may be made available to standby hunters on the beginning day of the respective hunt period provided that the capacity of the hunt period is not exceeded.

                Guess the second chance (people that didn't pay on time) drawings are limiting or eliminateing most of the standby positions.
                Last edited by ABWGTX; 08-01-2017, 04:17 PM.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by ABWGTX View Post
                  Called half a dozen places last year to hear.... No Standby . What am I doing wrong or are more places limiting standby hunters if all slots are paid up?

                  PS... These were spots in the brochure that did not state No Standbys

                  Just found this.

                  Hunt positions not claimed (paid for) by drawn applicants before specified deadlines may be made available to standby hunters on the beginning day of the respective hunt period provided that the capacity of the hunt period is not exceeded.

                  Guess the second chance (people that didn't pay on time) drawings are limiting or eliminateing most of the standby positions.
                  Yup. The second chance drawing takes away a lot of standby positions.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    The second chance drawing is taking up some extra spots, but if you go over the prior years statistics there are always "no shows". That's one thing the system can never account for. The chances of at least one "no show" are high. If you look at last year, there were a couple of hunts that allow stand bys, and only a fraction of the selected hunters showed. One in particular, no one showed up as stand bys either and half of the permits didn't get picked up. I guess its risky to bet on a "no show", and I'd only do it for a hunt that wasn't more than a few hours drive, but "no shows" are giving those stand by hunters opportunities to hunt each year.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by toddamusj View Post
                      The second chance drawing is taking up some extra spots, but if you go over the prior years statistics there are always "no shows". That's one thing the system can never account for. The chances of at least one "no show" are high.
                      You also have to understand, that if a drawn hunter pays for his permit fee and then doesn't show, TPWD can't give that spot to a stand-by.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by sqiggy View Post
                        You also have to understand, that if a drawn hunter pays for his permit fee and then doesn't show, TPWD can't give that spot to a stand-by.
                        Yup

                        Comment


                          #13
                          I didn't know that about stand bys. Where is that on the site? I've poured over it and I've never read that. The FAQs say standbys may be available if all hunt positions are available, but I always assumed no shows forfeited their hunt position. Is that not true?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            sorry, mis typed ".. if all hunt positions are not accepted,..."

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Accepted and show up are two diffrent things. They can accept the permit and still not show up. They would have to call and tell them they can fill their spot with a standby.

                              Comment

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