CRUZ on the Rise

[J Wales]

CRUZ on the Rise

Trump's popularity is based in large part on the frustration with that same GOP establishment who they don't believe is hearing them much less representing them.

So is Cruz's popularity. The thing is, a lot of the republican base is disgusted by Trumps lack of class, and for that reason, I believe a lot of them will stay home if he is elected.

The big difference between Cruz and Romney is that Cruz is a conservative. The voter turnout won't be remotely the same.

[bigbad243]

Sorry. Anymore, general elections are won on turnout of the base. That is how Obama won the first election. He won re-election because of the lack of turnout by Republicans in 2012. 7 million fewer Republicans voted in 2012 - if it had just been the same as 2008, Romney would have won.

If Cruz wins the 2016 primary, it will be because of the fix put in by establishment GOP/Romney and team. Trump's popularity is based in large part on the frustration with that same GOP establishment who they don't believe is hearing them much less representing them.

So blatantly ignoring Trump supporters in favor of undermining the democratic process to put their preferred candidate in charge will not end well. If it does work, a significant percentage of his supporters will not vote period. They are already ready to abandon the GOP. Cruz cannot win a general election without massive turnout from Republicans.

Before you assume that any Republican will vote against HRC even if they don't like Cruz, remember that is what they thought about conservative Republicans with regard to Romney and Obama. 7 million voters were not excited enough about the GOP candidate to go to the polls and make sure they at least cast a vote against Obama.

I unfortunately believe this to be true. Sad state we are all a part of.

[ttechdallas]

So is Cruz's popularity. The thing is, a lot of the republican base is disgusted by Trumps lack of class, and for that reason, I believe a lot of them will stay home if he is elected.

The big difference between Cruz and Romney is that Cruz is a conservative. The voter turnout won't be remotely the same.

That is a good point. Though it also shows the importance of having a candidate who can pull in new voters and well as pull in independents and moderate dems.

You are not going to see much in the television media that is going to do anything but paint Trump negatively. But the print media has reported frequently about Dem concerns that Bernie supporters will either sit out or vote for Trump.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-supporters-wont-vote-hillary_us_56d7571ae4b0871f60edb9fe

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/1/hillary-clinton-cant-count-on-bernie-sanders-suppo/

[Artos]

If Cruz wins the 2016 primary, it will be because of the fix put in by establishment GOP/Romney and team.

Not sure where you are coming from...the establishment loathes Cruz because he doesn't play ball the way they like. If there is a brokered convention, he is not likely going to be their preferred pick, but may have to?? The establishment wants Rubio at this point & they are in a tailspin dealing with why we the voters are pulling for the two most outside their box. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they picked Romney. The establishment doesn't care what is going on right in front of them.

Again, we aren't on the same page & I think you are totally misguided to align Cruz with Republican establishment simply because of their total hatred for & your blind support for Trump?? They have been attacking both Trump & Cruz from the very beginning...the only reason Trump is getting more is because he is leading. I'm not sure why you can't see this.

[ttechdallas]

Not sure where you are coming from...the establishment loathes Cruz because he doesn't play ball the way they like. If there is a brokered convention, he is not likely going to be their preferred pick, but may have to?? The establishment wants Rubio at this point & they are in a tailspin dealing with why we the voters are pulling for the two most outside their box. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they picked Romney. The establishment doesn't care what is going on right in front of them.

Again, we aren't on the same page & I think you are totally misguided to align Cruz with Republican establishment simply because of their total hatred for & your blind support for Trump?? They have been attacking both Trump & Cruz from the very beginning...the only reason Trump is getting more is because he is leading. I'm not sure why you can't see this.

With all due respect, what candidates are encompassed under the "anybody but Trump" strategy being orchestrated by the GOP? They didn't endorse Rubio or Kasich. So whether they are aligning with Cruz or not, the effect is the same if it undermines the democratic process of letting the voters choose.

I am actually a Kasich supporter and have been from day one. So I don't know what it is you think I should be "seeing". I think I am being about as realistic about the disaster and potential outcomes as anyone else's opinions I have seen.

[Be10dwn]

How is it undermining the Democratic process to try and beat trump in the primary elections?? Answer: it isn't. Now if there is a brokered convention and Trump had a significant amount of delegates, and he just falls short of the needed amount and someone else gets the nomination, that is undermining the Democratic process. Getting voters to turn out and vote against a person that would be a terrible candidate is the epitomy of the Democratic process.

[RevMS]

A brokered convention could be fair if Trump comes up just short of 1237 and 1) delegates coalesce around Trump and push him over the top, or 2) Cruz and Rubio get together and Rubio instructs his delegates to vote for Cruz and they form a ticket. The Trumpkins wouldn't like it and would scream foul ... Trump himself would probably go away.

What would not be fair (though it would be legal) is if the GOP-e turns the screws of the sausage making process and we end up with a Romney/Kasich ticket. In this case the GOP is dead and Trump could easily go independent ... and I have zero idea as to what the outcome would be ... though I would guess we'd be looking at the first woman president.

I can see three reasonable outcomes ... Cruz wins the nomination outright with help from an alliance with Rubio before (or even right after) Florida, Cruz is the nominee via the brokered convention process I detailed above, or the GOP-e blows the party up via the someone else at the top of the ticket scenario above.

[ttechdallas]

How is it undermining the Democratic process to try and beat trump in the primary elections?? Answer: it isn't. Now if there is a brokered convention and Trump had a significant amount of delegates, and he just falls short of the needed amount and someone else gets the nomination, that is undermining the Democratic process. Getting voters to turn out and vote against a person that would be a terrible candidate is the epitomy of the Democratic process.

Are you crazy? The voters are supposed to elect their nominee and like him or not, Trump is winning by a not insignificant number of votes. If party leadership ignores the voters and tries to take the candidate out or usurp the process so they can broker an alternative choice that is absolutely not the epitome of the democratic process.

[westtexducks]

Cruz won Maine and Kentucky they basically split the Louisianna vote and trump just nudged Cruz out by 2 delegates in Kentucky. Trump has 378 delegats and Cruz is sitting on 295. I think if Kasich drops out it would help Cruz out tremendously and allow him to start winning these states by higher margins and blow Trump out in the states they are tying in. Going to be interesting to see what Kasich and Rubio do in the next couple weeks.

[JGreen31]

Are you crazy? The voters are supposed to elect their nominee and like him or not, Trump is winning by a not insignificant number of votes. If party leadership ignores the voters and tries to take the candidate out or usurp the process so they can broker an alternative choice that is absolutely not the epitome of the democratic process.

Great post! I agree.

[muzzlebrake]

Trump may be funding the other two just to keep them in the race and pull votes away from Cruz. He certainly has the money to do it.
The other 2 will stay in it rather than incur the wrath of the establishment for dropping out and giving Cruz the edge. Either way Rubio and Kasich are done.
The establishment wants a brokered convention and Trump may well help them get it if he is in fact helping fund the other 2 losers.
Who is cutting off whose nose to spite themselves?
The biggest cluster fornication is yet to happen.

[Shane]

Are you crazy? The voters are supposed to elect their nominee and like him or not, Trump is winning by a not insignificant number of votes. If party leadership ignores the voters and tries to take the candidate out or usurp the process so they can broker an alternative choice that is absolutely not the epitome of the democratic process.

There is no candidate in the Republican field that currently has a majority of delegates, Trump included. To date, there have been 860 delegates allotted in the states where primaries and caucuses have been held. Here are the totals and percentages won so far by each candidate:

Trump 382 - 44.42%
Cruz 300 - 34.88%
Rubio 128 - 14.88%
Kasich 35 - 4.07%
Carson 8 - 0.009%
Bush 4 - 0.005%
Fiorina 1 - 0.001%
Huckabee 1 - 0.001%
Paul 1 - 0.001%

Nobody has 50% or more. To be named the party's delegate, a candidate has to win at least 8 states and gain at least 50% of the total delegate count (1,237 delegates or more). If, after all the primaries, no candidate has at least 1,237 delegates, then that means the party's voters did not select a candidate in the primaries. It would show that there is not broad enough consensus around a single candidate. It's pretty hard to argue that a brokered convention would somehow be usurping the voters' wishes if there were not a majority of voters who all had the same wish. That would simply show that there is more disagreement than agreement among the party's voters, and that would indicate that some sort of brokered convention process would be needed in order to narrow it down to a single candidate. That's pretty much the scenario that the process of a brokered convention is in place for.

Now, if Trump or any other candidate does get at least 1,237 delegates in the primaries and then the GOP decides to change the rules after the fact so they can take the nomination away from a candidate who did win a majority of the delegates, then that would definitely be usurping the wishes of the primary voters. That would be wrong for sure. But that's not where we are right now, and that's not what is being talked about when people talk about the possibility of a brokered convention. It's definitely possible that we could get through all of the primaries without a single candidate getting at least 1,237 delegates. If either Rubio or Kasich stay in the race the whole way, it's fairly likely that will happen. Hopefully both of them will drop out very soon. A brokered convention would most likely be a nightmare.

[ttechdallas]

There is no candidate in the Republican field that currently has a majority of delegates, Trump included. To date, there have been 860 delegates allotted in the states where primaries and caucuses have been held. Here are the totals and percentages won so far by each candidate:

Trump 382 - 44.42%
Cruz 300 - 34.88%
Rubio 128 - 14.88%
Kasich 35 - 4.07%
Carson 8 - 0.009%
Bush 4 - 0.005%
Fiorina 1 - 0.001%
Huckabee 1 - 0.001%
Paul 1 - 0.001%

Nobody has 50% or more. To be named the party's delegate, a candidate has to win at least 8 states and gain at least 50% of the total delegate count (1,237 delegates or more). If, after all the primaries, no candidate has at least 1,237 delegates, then that means the party's voters did not select a candidate in the primaries. It would show that there is not broad enough consensus around a single candidate. It's pretty hard to argue that a brokered convention would somehow be usurping the voters' wishes if there were not a majority of voters who all had the same wish. That would simply show that there is more disagreement than agreement among the party's voters, and that would indicate that some sort of brokered convention process would be needed in order to narrow it down to a single candidate. That's pretty much the scenario that the process of a brokered convention is in place for.

Now, if Trump or any other candidate does get at least 1,237 delegates in the primaries and then the GOP decides to change the rules after the fact so they can take the nomination away from a candidate who did win a majority of the delegates, then that would definitely be usurping the wishes of the primary voters. That would be wrong for sure. But that's not where we are right now, and that's not what is being talked about when people talk about the possibility of a brokered convention. It's definitely possible that we could get through all of the primaries without a single candidate getting at least 1,237 delegates. If either Rubio or Kasich stay in the race the whole way, it's fairly likely that will happen. Hopefully both of them will drop out very soon. A brokered convention would most likely be a nightmare.

You can try to rationalize it any way to Sunday but the intent is to usurp the democratic process. When the universally recognized head of the party gives a speech condemning the leading candidate - saying people should vote for Rubio in Florida, Kasich in Ohio, etc. for the sole purpose of thwarting the leader in hopes they can broker an alternative to the leading vote getter, what else can you call it?

Some may justify this on the basis of the greater good. In my opinion, the very worst thing about politics is defining right and wrong based on whom we support - whether candidate or party.

[GarGuy]

You can try to rationalize it any way to Sunday but the intent is to usurp the democratic process. When the universally recognized head of the party gives a speech condemning the leading candidate - saying people should vote for Rubio in Florida, Kasich in Ohio, etc. for the sole purpose of thwarting the leader in hopes they can broker an alternative to the leading vote getter, what else can you call it?

Some may justify this on the basis of the greater good. In my opinion, the very worst thing about politics is defining right and wrong based on whom we support - whether candidate or party.

Well i dont like what the party is doing and thats why Im all for Cruz. The partyy would give it to Romney, Bush, Rubio..Anyone they think will butter their bread and I hate that. Now as far as democracy goes, 60 percent of the republican party does not want Trump as the candidate. Give the people a heads up between Cruz and Trump and lets see who the people select, not who the mob bosses put in power.

[Shane]

You can try to rationalize it any way to Sunday but the intent is to usurp the democratic process. When the universally recognized head of the party gives a speech condemning the leading candidate - saying people should vote for Rubio in Florida, Kasich in Ohio, etc. for the sole purpose of thwarting the leader in hopes they can broker an alternative to the leading vote getter, what else can you call it?

Some may justify this on the basis of the greater good. In my opinion, the very worst thing about politics is defining right and wrong based on whom we support - whether candidate or party.

You seem to be under the impression that I am a supporter of the GOP party bosses. I'm not. I'm just pointing out the fact that it's a political campaign, and there are going to be people for and against all of the candidates. If Romney wants to make a speech against a candidate and/or for another one, that's his right to do so. He doesn't have to support Trump or anyone else, just because that candidate happens to be the front runner at the time. And the voters have to right to ignore Romney's speech and vote for whoever they want to vote for as well. That's politics.