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Old 07-21-2017, 12:25 PM   #1
Deerguy
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Default Draw Hunt Analysis 2

Here is a write-up I started last year, just updated the numbers.

Hereís an interesting analysis (for me anyway, probably nobody else). I have been a participant in the draw system for 23 years now. In the descriptions below, Ďthe changeí refers to the changes to the program that occurred a few years ago (applying for multiple hunts within a category).

Direct comparisons to other hunters/success will never be comparable due to loyalty points, loyalty points averaged by group members, and an individualís preference in where you apply (I tend to just put in for Ďthe good spotsí) as well as applying for the really difficult categories (like Pronghorn). Iíd always thought I was fairly unlucky in the drawn hunts (if you just look at numbers and percentages). But, over the last 23 years, Iíve gone on 19 hunts (12 drawn and 7 stand-by). Thatís not too bad (83%).

In 23 years, Iíve been drawn 12 times (52% yearly success overall), 8 times before the change (35%), 4 times after (133%).

In 23 years, Iíve applied for 268 total hunts (12/year), 143 before the change (7/year), 125 after (42/year).

Another way of looking at Ďsuccess rateí is to look at the number of times drawn relative to the number of individual hunts applied for, which is 5.6% before the change (8 of 143) and 3.2% post-change (4 of 125). But, to be fair, the new system has only been in place 3 years.

The most hunts Iíve ever been drawn for in 1 year was 3 (last year). Also drawn for 2 hunts in a year several years ago. The rest were only 1 hunt per year.

Iíve applied every year since 1994. The lowest number of hunts I have put in for in a given year was 2, the most was 17 prior to the change, 52 post-change. The longest Iíve gone without being drawn for something is 4 years.

Iíve applied for 22 different categories before the change, 24 after the change (28 total different categories).

Of the 28 different categories Iíve applied for, Iíve only been drawn in 5 of them (for 23 different categories, Iíve never been selected).

I started applying in 1994, but didnít get to carry a rifle on any drawn hunt until 2009 (16 years).

In addition to the hunts I was drawn for, I have also gone stand-by for 7 hunts in 7 years and was selected each time.

Hereís a breakdown of individual hunt categories:

Archery Deer Ė Iíve applied in 18 years, 15 pre-change (drawn 5 times), 3 post-change (drawn 1).
Exotic Ė Iíve applied in 13 years, 10 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Antlerless/Spike Ė Iíve applied 14 years, 11 pre-change (never drawn), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Gun Deer Either Sex - Iíve applied in 23 years, 20 pre-change (drawn once), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Pronghorn - Iíve applied in 20 years, 17 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Spring Turkey - Iíve applied in 16 years, 13 pre-change (drawn twice), 3 post-change (not drawn).
Guided Exotic - Iíve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Guided Deer - Iíve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Private Lands Either Sex - Iíve applied 11 years, 9 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Bighorn Sheep - Iíve applied 7 years, 5 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Management - Iíve applied 11 years, 8 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Archery Exotic - Iíve applied 5 years, 3 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Feral Hog - Iíve applied 2 years, both pre-change. Never been drawn.
Javelina - Iíve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change (never drawn), 1 post-change (drawn).
Archery Mule Deer - Iíve applied 9 years, 6 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Mule Deer - Iíve applied 10 years, 7 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Pronghorn - Iíve applied 6 years, 4 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator - Iíve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Antlerless/Spike - Iíve applied 5 years, 2 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Gemsbok - Iíve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Crossbow - Iíve applied 2 years, both pre-change (now defunct). Never been drawn.
Guided Oryx - Iíve applied 2 years, 1 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator Management - Iíve applied 2 years, both post-change. Never been drawn.
E-postcard archery deer- Iíve applied 2 years, post-change, and never been drawn.
E-postcard multispecies- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
E-postcard waterfowl/pheasant- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge Exotic- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge General Deer- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
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Old 07-21-2017, 12:31 PM   #2
Carpe_diem
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...and I thought I was a "Draw Junkie"!!

Remember the scene in The Jerk when Steve Martin runs out of the house yelling :The new phone books are here! The new phone books are here!" - ?

That used to be me every year when the new draw booklet came out. It's a little less exciting now that everything is on line and I've been lots of places....but I'll still put in for a dozen categories or so, like I do every year.
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Old 07-21-2017, 12:41 PM   #3
db@100
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It would be nice to be able to compare the spots you applied for to see how lucky your are. I've been applying since the mid 70's. I waited 20 years to get drawn for the Chap. Now I'm back waiting again.
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Old 07-21-2017, 12:52 PM   #4
RGV Hunter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deerguy View Post
Here is a write-up I started last year, just updated the numbers.

Hereís an interesting analysis (for me anyway, probably nobody else). I have been a participant in the draw system for 23 years now. In the descriptions below, Ďthe changeí refers to the changes to the program that occurred a few years ago (applying for multiple hunts within a category).

Direct comparisons to other hunters/success will never be comparable due to loyalty points, loyalty points averaged by group members, and an individualís preference in where you apply (I tend to just put in for Ďthe good spotsí) as well as applying for the really difficult categories (like Pronghorn). Iíd always thought I was fairly unlucky in the drawn hunts (if you just look at numbers and percentages). But, over the last 23 years, Iíve gone on 19 hunts (12 drawn and 7 stand-by). Thatís not too bad (83%).

In 23 years, Iíve been drawn 12 times (52% yearly success overall), 8 times before the change (35%), 4 times after (133%).

In 23 years, Iíve applied for 268 total hunts (12/year), 143 before the change (7/year), 125 after (42/year).

Another way of looking at Ďsuccess rateí is to look at the number of times drawn relative to the number of individual hunts applied for, which is 5.6% before the change (8 of 143) and 3.2% post-change (4 of 125). But, to be fair, the new system has only been in place 3 years.

The most hunts Iíve ever been drawn for in 1 year was 3 (last year). Also drawn for 2 hunts in a year several years ago. The rest were only 1 hunt per year.

Iíve applied every year since 1994. The lowest number of hunts I have put in for in a given year was 2, the most was 17 prior to the change, 52 post-change. The longest Iíve gone without being drawn for something is 4 years.

Iíve applied for 22 different categories before the change, 24 after the change (28 total different categories).

Of the 28 different categories Iíve applied for, Iíve only been drawn in 5 of them (for 23 different categories, Iíve never been selected).

I started applying in 1994, but didnít get to carry a rifle on any drawn hunt until 2009 (16 years).

In addition to the hunts I was drawn for, I have also gone stand-by for 7 hunts in 7 years and was selected each time.

Hereís a breakdown of individual hunt categories:

Archery Deer Ė Iíve applied in 18 years, 15 pre-change (drawn 5 times), 3 post-change (drawn 1).
Exotic Ė Iíve applied in 13 years, 10 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Antlerless/Spike Ė Iíve applied 14 years, 11 pre-change (never drawn), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Gun Deer Either Sex - Iíve applied in 23 years, 20 pre-change (drawn once), 3 post-change (drawn once).
Pronghorn - Iíve applied in 20 years, 17 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Spring Turkey - Iíve applied in 16 years, 13 pre-change (drawn twice), 3 post-change (not drawn).
Guided Exotic - Iíve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Guided Deer - Iíve applied in 2 years, pre-change, and was never drawn (now defunct).
Private Lands Either Sex - Iíve applied 11 years, 9 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Bighorn Sheep - Iíve applied 7 years, 5 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Deer Management - Iíve applied 11 years, 8 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Archery Exotic - Iíve applied 5 years, 3 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Feral Hog - Iíve applied 2 years, both pre-change. Never been drawn.
Javelina - Iíve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change (never drawn), 1 post-change (drawn).
Archery Mule Deer - Iíve applied 9 years, 6 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Gun Mule Deer - Iíve applied 10 years, 7 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Pronghorn - Iíve applied 6 years, 4 pre-change, 2 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator - Iíve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Private Lands Antlerless/Spike - Iíve applied 5 years, 2 pre-change, 3 post-change. Never been drawn.
Guided Gemsbok - Iíve applied 4 years, 3 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Crossbow - Iíve applied 2 years, both pre-change (now defunct). Never been drawn.
Guided Oryx - Iíve applied 2 years, 1 pre-change, 1 post-change. Never been drawn.
Alligator Management - Iíve applied 2 years, both post-change. Never been drawn.
E-postcard archery deer- Iíve applied 2 years, post-change, and never been drawn.
E-postcard multispecies- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
E-postcard waterfowl/pheasant- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge Exotic- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
National Refuge General Deer- Iíve applied 1 year, post-change, and never been drawn
When you were on standby, did you have to sign up for the hunt and not get selected in order to be a standby participant. Or did you just show up at the standby table and hope you get picked?
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Old 07-21-2017, 02:52 PM   #5
Felix40
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Applying for 42 hunts a year?! Wow.
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Old 07-22-2017, 09:54 AM   #6
Deerguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RGV Hunter View Post
When you were on standby, did you have to sign up for the hunt and not get selected in order to be a standby participant. Or did you just show up at the standby table and hope you get picked?
You can do it both ways. I always had put in for the hunt that I showed up standby for, but, you don't have to. You can be a standby participant at just about all the hunts (it will usually tell you if they don't do standbys), whether you applied for it or not.
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Old 07-23-2017, 04:08 PM   #7
j_chaserman1
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I do an analysis as well. Mine does not go nearly as far back as Ive only been hunting here in Texas for the last 3 years. But each year I put all the draws on and the dates and then based on my days off distance and such I put in for my the ones that work.
Attached Images
File Type: pdf Draw Hunts data base.pdf (820.6 KB, 113 views)
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Old 08-01-2017, 06:02 PM   #8
ABWGTX
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Called half a dozen places last year to hear.... No Standby . What am I doing wrong or are more places limiting standby hunters if all slots are paid up?

PS... These were spots in the brochure that did not state No Standbys

Just found this.

Hunt positions not claimed (paid for) by drawn applicants before specified deadlines may be made available to standby hunters on the beginning day of the respective hunt period provided that the capacity of the hunt period is not exceeded.

Guess the second chance (people that didn't pay on time) drawings are limiting or eliminateing most of the standby positions.

Last edited by ABWGTX; 08-01-2017 at 06:17 PM..
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Old 08-01-2017, 06:53 PM   #9
Etxnoodler
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Originally Posted by ABWGTX View Post
Called half a dozen places last year to hear.... No Standby . What am I doing wrong or are more places limiting standby hunters if all slots are paid up?

PS... These were spots in the brochure that did not state No Standbys

Just found this.

Hunt positions not claimed (paid for) by drawn applicants before specified deadlines may be made available to standby hunters on the beginning day of the respective hunt period provided that the capacity of the hunt period is not exceeded.

Guess the second chance (people that didn't pay on time) drawings are limiting or eliminateing most of the standby positions.
Yup. The second chance drawing takes away a lot of standby positions.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:29 PM   #10
toddamusj
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The second chance drawing is taking up some extra spots, but if you go over the prior years statistics there are always "no shows". That's one thing the system can never account for. The chances of at least one "no show" are high. If you look at last year, there were a couple of hunts that allow stand bys, and only a fraction of the selected hunters showed. One in particular, no one showed up as stand bys either and half of the permits didn't get picked up. I guess its risky to bet on a "no show", and I'd only do it for a hunt that wasn't more than a few hours drive, but "no shows" are giving those stand by hunters opportunities to hunt each year.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:51 PM   #11
sqiggy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toddamusj View Post
The second chance drawing is taking up some extra spots, but if you go over the prior years statistics there are always "no shows". That's one thing the system can never account for. The chances of at least one "no show" are high.
You also have to understand, that if a drawn hunter pays for his permit fee and then doesn't show, TPWD can't give that spot to a stand-by.
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:04 PM   #12
Etxnoodler
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You also have to understand, that if a drawn hunter pays for his permit fee and then doesn't show, TPWD can't give that spot to a stand-by.
Yup
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:25 PM   #13
toddamusj
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I didn't know that about stand bys. Where is that on the site? I've poured over it and I've never read that. The FAQs say standbys may be available if all hunt positions are available, but I always assumed no shows forfeited their hunt position. Is that not true?
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:26 PM   #14
toddamusj
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sorry, mis typed ".. if all hunt positions are not accepted,..."
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:51 PM   #15
Etxnoodler
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Accepted and show up are two diffrent things. They can accept the permit and still not show up. They would have to call and tell them they can fill their spot with a standby.
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:58 PM   #16
JayKen86
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My analysis is a lot simpler... I put in a bunch and get drawn zero.
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Old 08-01-2017, 09:59 PM   #17
Etxnoodler
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Originally Posted by JayKen86 View Post
My analysis is a lot simpler... I put in a bunch and get drawn zero.
Ha. almost the same as mine!! Lol
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:04 PM   #18
JayKen86
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Originally Posted by Etxnoodler View Post
Ha. almost the same as mine!! Lol
I actually got drawn for archery deer at granger in 2012 but couldn't make it due to starting a new job the same day as the first day of the hunt. that was the first time I've been drawn since i was 14 at pedernales falls and I'm 31 now.
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Old 08-01-2017, 10:35 PM   #19
sqiggy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toddamusj View Post
I didn't know that about stand bys. Where is that on the site? I've poured over it and I've never read that. The FAQs say standbys may be available if all hunt positions are available, but I always assumed no shows forfeited their hunt position. Is that not true?
Not true. Got drew on a hunt some years back. Called ahead and informed them I wouldn't make it for the noon orientation, but would be there. After I showed up, they informed me then that they could not give my spot away since I already paid for the permit. Now, if I called them and told them I was not coming at all, then they could, but they said they would be reluctant to do so because they really don't know who is on the other end of the phone.
As far as stand by, best thing to do is call the area couple days before the hunt. They will usually tell you if they have any stand by's available. I have hunted stand by several times.
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Old 08-01-2017, 11:24 PM   #20
bossbowman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toddamusj View Post
I didn't know that about stand bys. Where is that on the site? I've poured over it and I've never read that. The FAQs say standbys may be available if all hunt positions are available, but I always assumed no shows forfeited their hunt position. Is that not true?
Nope. This happened one year a matador, remembr a couple guys that drove all the way from houston to standby, boy were they p!ssed when chip told them he wouldn't give the no shows permits to standbys and sent them packing.

Last edited by bossbowman; 08-01-2017 at 11:27 PM..
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Old 08-02-2017, 08:24 AM   #21
Palehorse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bossbowman View Post
Nope. This happened one year a matador, remembr a couple guys that drove all the way from houston to standby, boy were they p!ssed when chip told them he wouldn't give the no shows permits to standbys and sent them packing.
Just as well. There are no deer at Matador.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:10 AM   #22
Shake N' Bake
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Tagged for later

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:49 AM   #23
toddamusj
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Interesting. Good to know. I hate to be like those guys from Houston. That would suck.
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Old 08-02-2017, 09:56 AM   #24
ultrastealth
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I'll say this, at least for alligator, I used to be able to go standby and get to hunt pretty much every time. In the last two years, I don't think JD Murphry has taken a single standby hunter. This is partly due to the second chance drawing, but I also think they use that as an excuse to take fewer hunters, thus less work for the staff.
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Old 08-02-2017, 01:47 PM   #25
sqiggy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toddamusj View Post
Interesting. Good to know. I hate to be like those guys from Houston. That would suck.
That's why you call a couple days before the hunt. Every time I've called about a hunt, I was always told how many spots were available. Keep in mind though, say they tell you there are 2 spots, there may be 20 people show up for those 2 spots.
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Old 08-13-2017, 02:45 PM   #26
bowburro.53
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Originally Posted by Palehorse View Post
Just as well. There are no deer at Matador.
Yep no deer there, when I drew w/ bud we got first pick on compartment,yea. there were 4 0r 5 guys, some locals, 2 got standby to hunt where there is no deer, either SEX, LOL oh well, think that may be called hiking, ha.
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Old 08-13-2017, 04:15 PM   #27
pilar
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Does anyone know if any of the draw hunts are more handicapped hunter friendly, than others? I would hate to draw and not be able to participate
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Old 08-13-2017, 07:18 PM   #28
Palehorse
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pilar View Post
Does anyone know if any of the draw hunts are more handicapped hunter friendly, than others? I would hate to draw and not be able to participate
On the hunt description, they list "hunt method". It will either be by assigned blind or by compartment. As a general rule, the assigned blind hunts will be more handicapped friendly because there is a blind ready for you. That said, several of the compartment style hunts accommodated handicapped hunters by allowing them to hunt from an offroad vehicle. The best thing to do is call the number listed for the individual hunt area and ask direct. I'd be willing to bet that most of them will make accommodations unless it is impossible for the area.

Good luck!
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