When will we know how the election is going?

[RiverRat1]

I've never paid a lot of attention in the past until election day itself.

But someone surely knows how early voting is going. Since it appears tons of people early voted do they not count them until election day, count them but don't release the info or what?

Wondering when the first indications will come out? I know it will probably come down to late on election day though for final results.

[SB09]

It won't even be election day if Trump is ahead at the end of election day...

Unless Trump absolutely landslides Biden, I think it will be at least 2 weeks after election day to give the Democrats the chance to "find" the mail in ballots they need to make Biden the winner.

If this election is even remotely close, Biden will be the ultimate winner.

[Puggy625]

It won't even be election day if Trump is ahead at the end of election day...

Unless Trump absolutely landslides Biden, I think it will be at least 2 weeks after election day to give the Democrats the chance to "find" the mail in ballots they need to make Biden the winner.

If this election is even remotely close, Biden will be the ultimate winner.

Sadly, yep.

[SaltwaterSlick]

I saw news reports and heard local reports on KTRH and Channel 2 NBC and 26 Fox from the Houston area that mail in ballots and early voting registered voters are pretty evenly split between DemoKraut registered voters and Repulsican registered voters...
That bodes well for Repulsicans since historically, like has been posted, a larger percentage of registered Repulisicans do not early vote. While DemoKrauts do vote early and largely because the DemoKraut political machine physically takes folks to the polls in busses, cars, vans, etc...



This election will be like no other in our lifetime. I personally am praying hard for a good outcome up and down the ballots.

[sqiggy]

Saw it on the news just the other day. Don’t remember the numbers, but early voting was way up compared to 2016. And I mean way up.
As far as numbers to the candidates, I don’t think I’ve ever seen early numbers. Probably will have to wait till November 3rd.

[muzzlebrake]

Saw today where Texas is leading in early voting with 43+% of registered voters have already voted. Don't have a clue what this means other than numbers. Could be red or could be blue votes or could be evenly split. Red tide will roll on election day state wide and that's for sure. Don't mean squat for the rest of the nation.

[CEO]

The prediction is it will be weeks after election day before anything is decided. Some say January before a winner is announced.

[rtp]

This election will be like no other in our lifetime. I personally am praying hard for a good outcome up and down the ballots.

This. I have been doing the same and hope others are doing so. If Trump loses, I think God has had enough of the good ole US of A and what it has become.

[Pstraw]

No ballots are counted until polls closed. At least here in Texas. Some of the early votes will get verified for authenticity but not counted either way. In Texas the votes are counted by precinct, then totaled by the county clerk's office, then forwarded to the secretary of states office. County clerk may send a % of votes to the state office prior to a winner being declared.

[unclefish]

TargetSmart is an analytical tool I like to look at that models early voting patterns. For states like Texas where there is no party registration they do a modeled party approach using primary ballot requests, voter history, etc... They actually have a file for every registered voter. The data is quite good.

For Texas...Trump will likely win by an ever great margin than 2016 (he won by 9%). Right now more R's (50.6%) have voted in early voting (mail-in and early in-person voting) than D's (40.1%). Plus there is an 8% unaffiliated vote in which Trump will win at least half (another 4% for Trump). In 2016 for early voting it was 56-37 Democrats and Trump still won by 9 points.

Its not even gonna be close for Trump....I predict easy double digit win for POTUS...right now its at a 13% Trump win in early voting.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

[WItoTX]

No ballots are counted until polls closed. At least here in Texas. Some of the early votes will get verified for authenticity but not counted either way. In Texas the votes are counted by precinct, then totaled by the county clerk's office, then forwarded to the secretary of states office. County clerk may send a % of votes to the state office prior to a winner being declared.

This is the answer. Even if votes are counted at the precinct prior to November 3, the precinct isn't going to release that number, and the state isn't going to start counting anyways until November 3.

That said, even exit polling is going to be skewed. Sadly there are plenty of people who are ashamed or scared to admit they voted for Trump, and will lie about voting for Trump.

[muzzlebrake]

Sadly there are plenty of people who are ashamed or scared to admit they voted for Trump, and will lie about voting for Trump.

OK ok, I won't lie.
I voted for Trump--------------------AGAIN

[etbowhunter]

That said, even exit polling is going to be skewed. Sadly there are plenty of people who are ashamed or scared to admit they voted for Trump, and will lie about voting for Trump.

I hope this is correct. Hopefully all the "conservatives" that are saying they can't vote for Trump because of his tweeting and how he's not presidential are among that crowd. I read an article the other day talking about how a significant majority (+/-58%) like Trump handling the economy and national security better than Biden but that same majority doesn't like Trump because he's mean.

Obama, George H. Bush, and Jimmy Carter were all "presidential". Anybody better off now than when those clowns were in charge?

[unclefish]

No ballots are counted until polls closed. At least here in Texas. Some of the early votes will get verified for authenticity but not counted either way. In Texas the votes are counted by precinct, then totaled by the county clerk's office, then forwarded to the secretary of states office. County clerk may send a % of votes to the state office prior to a winner being declared.

True....but they do know how many votes were received each day and who the person was that voted. Those results are shared out routinely (some counties are updated daily)....but they don't know who they voted for.

You can garner good info from this which is what SmartTarget does. In some states that have party registration it's even more accurate because they can tell how many R's vs D's voted each day. They model this in Texas because there is no party registration.

[SaltwaterSlick]

unclefish, thank you for posting that link! That is an interesting site. Lots of good data there. I bookmarked that sucker!


Y'all want to see what a blue state looks like, go look at CA!! I've heard news folks quip about even California is in play this year for Trump!... Yea, right... Go look at the early voting numbers, and you won't see that being a remote possibility!


I'm gonna play with this site some and follow some of the battleground states like PA, FL, OH, MI, AZ and the like...