Countdown Until Election

[bloodtrailer28]

Trump will lose in a landslide, so not need for court battles. Dems will add enough seats to take the Senate and House will add a few seats too. The nominee for the SC will have passed by then. No need for lawsuits. The economy will slowly recover. Interest rate will slowly increase, Market will remain flat for two years.

You must be having another one of your wet dreams. Let us know when you wake up in November and reality slaps you in the face.

[bloodtrailer28]

This. Unless it's a hard landslide in one direction or the other, nobody's going to back down at any level. It'll be a train wreck wrapped in a dumpster fire.

Extremists on the losing side will burn stuff, and America loses either way. We're being forced to choose between death by aggressive erosion with the D's vs. death by chaotic dumpster fire with the R's.

I don't predict a good outcome regardless of who "wins" and how.

As we've all seen only one side loots and burns things. But hey keep voting for them.

[Thumper]

30 Days and Counting

Trump is hospitalized and the Democrats have quit burning and looting. Even they can see their poll numbers going south. Now its the hook and crook method with the mail in ballots.

I still think Trump will win. R's pick up 25 seats in the house and 4 in the Senate. Barrett is confirmed before the election.

[RattlesnakeDan]

Trump will win handily.
The democrats are being exposed for who they are and more and more are going to vote for Trump. Republicans will have best turnout ever.
God has his hand in it but it is up to us to make a difference with prayers, voting, using social media and other means to get the truth out to those who are spiritually blind or watch the news for information.

[muzzlebrake]

Winning back the house is the single most important thing. Even more than getting another SCOTUS pick confirmed. With the house firmly in the republican hands, all this fake collusion against Trump goes away. Dems can't do squat without the house and if a Dem is president and goes crazy with EO's then the republican house can impeach for abuse of power. KARMA is the word if the house goes red. Next is the senate. If repubs can keep a majority there and also have a red house then they can squash anything the Democrats throw at us.
This is the most important election in American history x1000

[Artos]

SCOTUS appointments are the most crucial & why trump must win...we can deal with the house elections every two years, but lifetime appointments on critical constitutional issues that affect my kids & grandkids matter more than any short term gains.

Trump winning is #1, keeping the senate for the scotus is 2nd & house 3rd...it's a marathon, not a sprint. An uber conservative packed court for the next 30+ years could save the republic for a long time after I'm gone. Losing the potus & having packed courts is terrifying.

[Laszlo]

SCOTUS appointments are the most crucial & why trump must win...we can deal with the house elections every two years, but lifetime appointments on critical constitutional issues that affect my kids & grandkids matter more than any short term gains.

Trump winning is #1, keeping the senate for the scotus is 2nd & house 3rd...it's a marathon, not a sprint. An uber conservative packed court for the next 30+ years could save the republic for a long time after I'm gone. Losing the potus & having packed courts is terrifying.

This.

.

[Mike D]

Winning back the house is the single most important thing. Even more than getting another SCOTUS pick confirmed. With the house firmly in the republican hands, all this fake collusion against Trump goes away. Dems can't do squat without the house and if a Dem is president and goes crazy with EO's then the republican house can impeach for abuse of power. KARMA is the word if the house goes red. Next is the senate. If repubs can keep a majority there and also have a red house then they can squash anything the Democrats throw at us.

This is the most important election in American history x1000

Not even. SCOTUS is way more important. We get a chance with the house every 2 years. SCOTUS is a generation......at least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Thumper]

Not even. SCOTUS is way more important. We get a chance with the house every 2 years. SCOTUS is a generation......at least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Trump has already done his job, he nominated Barrett, Now its time for the Senate to do their job and confirm Barrett.

[Mudslinger]

What gets me is the media is saying Trump needs to win over the middle class, white, EDUCATED folks to have a chance to win.

My problem is if you are EDUCATED, no matter the class or color, how in the world could you vote for Biden!

[Vermin93]

Any reasonably objective analysis of current data suggests that if the election were held today, Trump would be badly defeated. Trump partisans are clinging to the security blanket that "the polls were wrong last time". Such wishful thinking appears to be overly simplistic and doesn't adequately look under the hood at what the data shows. A few key points...

- National polling averages right before election day in 2016 showed Hillary up about 3% nationally. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2%. The national polls weren't way off. Biden is currently up ~7% in national polling averages. If that lead holds it will translate to a lot more votes for Biden in all states and will probably be game over for Trump.

- Trump won the 2016 electoral college by delivering very slim margins of victory in just a few midwestern states (MI, PA, WI). 2016 polling under-sampled certain demographics, particularly white rural voters and white voters without college degrees. It's reasonable to assume that professional polling firms adjusted their models to correct for this miss in 2016 and to produce more accurate results in 2020.

- There were a lot more undecided voters in 2016 right before the election than there are now. Current polling indicates that most Americans have already made up their mind. Trump and Biden are competing for a much smaller pool of undecided voters than there were in 2016, and Trump's aggressive and obnoxious debate performance potentially turned more of them off than he won over. In 2016, a large majority of undecided voters broke Trump's way on election day. James Comey opening back up the Hillary e-mail server investigation days before the election likely contributed to this. Additionally, approval polling showed that Hillary was a generally unlikeable candidate. Biden's likeability ratings are substantially higher than Hillary's were.

- National polling averages, which currently show Biden with a substantial lead, have been very stable for weeks despite the never-ending political drama. This suggests the electorate is unlikely to move much unless a major event or surprise occurs. Additionally, state polling shows Trump losing substantial support in several states that he won easily in 2016. The race appears to be much closer in TX, GA and NC than it was in 2016. Trump won South Carolina in 2016 by 14 points. Recent polling shows this race narrowing to low single-digits. If accurate, that is a huge drop for Trump in what has been a very red state. Even if Trump wins TX, GA and NC, if his margin of victory shrinks substantially from 2016, it suggests it will also shrink in the swing states that he barely won in 2016 (MI, PA, WI, FL). If Biden wins back MI, PA, WI, which Trump won by less than 1% of the statewide vote...it's game over.

Maybe Trump's "silent majority" is really faking out the polls to the tune of 3 - 4%. Trump Nation better hope so, because if that's not the case the current data suggests that Trump is going to get beat, and possibly badly.

[Mike D]

Trump has already done his job, he nominated Barrett, Now its time for the Senate to do their job and confirm Barrett.

Agreed but if they don’t confirm her before Jan 3 and the Dems take the Senate you can bet she won’t be confirmed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[BowhunterB]

Any reasonably objective analysis of current data suggests that if the election were held today, Trump would be badly defeated. Trump partisans are clinging to the security blanket that "the polls were wrong last time". Such wishful thinking appears to be overly simplistic and doesn't adequately look under the hood at what the data shows. A few key points...

- National polling averages right before election day in 2016 showed Hillary up about 3% nationally. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2%. The national polls weren't way off. Biden is currently up ~7% in national polling averages. If that lead holds it will translate to a lot more votes for Biden in all states and will probably be game over for Trump.

- Trump won the 2016 electoral college by delivering very slim margins of victory in just a few midwestern states (MI, PA, WI). 2016 polling under-sampled certain demographics, particularly white rural voters and white voters without college degrees. It's reasonable to assume that professional polling firms adjusted their models to correct for this miss in 2016 and to produce more accurate results in 2020.

- There were a lot more undecided voters in 2016 right before the election than there are now. Current polling indicates that most Americans have already made up their mind. Trump and Biden are competing for a much smaller pool of undecided voters than there were in 2016, and Trump's aggressive and obnoxious debate performance potentially turned more of them off than he won over. In 2016, a large majority of undecided voters broke Trump's way on election day. James Comey opening back up the Hillary e-mail server investigation days before the election likely contributed to this. Additionally, approval polling showed that Hillary was a generally unlikeable candidate. Biden's likeability ratings are substantially higher than Hillary's were.

- National polling averages, which currently show Biden with a substantial lead, have been very stable for weeks despite the never-ending political drama. This suggests the electorate is unlikely to move much unless a major event or surprise occurs. Additionally, state polling shows Trump losing substantial support in several states that he won easily in 2016. The race appears to be much closer in TX, GA and NC than it was in 2016. Trump won South Carolina in 2016 by 14 points. Recent polling shows this race narrowing to low single-digits. If accurate, that is a huge drop for Trump in what has been a very red state. Even if Trump wins TX, GA and NC, if his margin of victory shrinks substantially from 2016, it suggests it will also shrink in the swing states that he barely won in 2016 (MI, PA, WI, FL). If Biden wins back MI, PA, WI, which Trump won by less than 1% of the statewide vote...it's game over.

Maybe Trump's "silent majority" is really faking out the polls to the tune of 3 - 4%. Trump Nation better hope so, because if that's not the case the current data suggests that Trump is going to get beat, and possibly badly.

Polls are typically a bu ch of crap, can be manipulated however you want them to turn out very easily

[flywise]

https://www.blazetv.com/watch/channel/series/series/6h9e60TbKWdu-glenn-tv/episode/6-zlr1ol6gacf5-civil-war-the-lefts-election-night-war-game-ep-56

[Vermin93]

Polls are typically a bu ch of crap, can be manipulated however you want them to turn out very easily

Again, in 2016 the national polling average predicted Hillary winning the popular vote by 3%. She won it by 2%. The national polling average missed the final outcome by only 1%. I would call that pretty accurate.

Biden is up 7.4% in the national polling average. That's 4+% higher than Hillary prior to the 2016 election. A rationale Trump fan would be right to be deeply concerned by this.

Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 1% (only 68,236 votes)
Trump won Michigan by less than 0.5% (only 11,837 votes)
Trump won Wisconsin by less than 1% (only 27,528 votes)

If Biden wins the same states Hillary won, which he almost certainly will, and he wins back PA, MI and WI, it's the end of the Trump era.

Current polling averages show Biden with a lead in all 3 states right now:

Pennsylvania: Biden +5.8%
Michigan: Biden +6.7%
Wisconsin: Biden +6.6%

Current polling averages also show Biden up in other swing states that Trump won:

Arizona: Biden +3.2%
Florida: Biden +2.7%
Georgia: Biden +0.4%
North Carolina: Biden +1.3%
Ohio: Biden +0.5%

All of these are within the margin of error and could go either way, but the current trend favors Biden nationally and at the state level in most swing states. Trump needs to hope most of these are wrong in his favor.

Trump fans would be wise to start emotionally preparing themselves for a loss. Trump will claim voter fraud as a weak excuse to save face, but the current polls indicate a majority of Americans don't want 4 more years of him.