Stock market

[DEADEYE1]

stocks

Market timing is a loser's game. It's been proven time and time again.

Pick an appropriate asset allocation and an investment plan. Stay the course. Ignore the noise.

this!!!!

end thread

[JeffJ]

Some argue timing the market can be done successfully. Buy 18 months after large downturns, like 2001 and 2008, hold 4.5 years and then sell and wait for next one.

Not saying that's the best way to maximize return, but I see their point.

Youre assuming CORRECT market timing.

[TeamAmerica]

I would not try to time the market for anything related to my long term retirement funds. Read Warren Buffet's advice (and even invest in Berkshire!).

On your trading accounts, instead of trying to time the market, focus on buying some natural hedges and limit some of your downside. Never anything wrong with a 20 to 25% cash reserve for buying good opportunities. Natural hedges:
Gold if the dollar weakens
Southwest Airlines (profit goes up when oil prices go down).
College campus real estate (does okay when economy slips, unemployment rises, and people stay in school).
HLI - they offer significant restructuring consulting so they still get business when the economy tanks and companies go bankrupt.

I'm also going to start looking into India treasuries. High yields and they are one of the fastest growth economies out there right now.

[Reelthreat]

Several companies are going to repatriate cash from overseas this year with the biggest being Apple. They plan on bringing back (and investing) $250billion for a one time tax hit of something like $36billion. That is a not a redistribution of existing wealth in the US, it is a straight injection of $210billion into our economy from foreign economies. This and all the other repatriated cash should have the economy at levels we didn't think were possible.

Companies are no longer afraid to spend their cash or bring their cash back!

[ntxshooter]

I have a set asset allocation of how much US equities, International equities and fixed income I want to own. If any one of those classes outperforms and becomes more than my target I rebalance back to the target. Its non-emotional and it causes you to sell high and buy low. You sell the outperformer of the group and buy the underperformer when you rebalance.

For example if you want hold 80% of your portfolio in equities and of that 80% you want those equities split between 70% US and 30% international. Say that US equities go on a run and all of a sudden your portfolio is now 85% equities and of that total 75% is US and 25% is international. I sell however much US equities I need to sell to bring me back to 80% equities of which 70% is US.

Standard and Poors puts out a great report each year on market timing. Its a loser's game. You can convince yourself that you're smart enough to time the market but over the long term you will underperform. IMO if you don't have the cajones to stick to an investment plan and stay invested in a market then you probably shouldn't be in the market to begin with.

This...Throwin Darts pretty much summed up my response. Sounds like he and I share the same philosophy. (Bogleheads). There are tons of articles out there that discuss this and I know I've seen some comparison charts. I'll see if I can find them later

[tommy1005]

For those that sold in 2008 when the market corrected, they would have made their money back by 2011-2012 and those investments would now be more than double what they were to start with.

I have very little individual stocks in our portfolio and the ones we do have are ESPP’s or long term incentives from my wife’s job. Our stock position is less than 10% of our total portfolio. The bulk is in mutual funds that have a long, proven track record of beating the market. If your investments don’t atleast equal the gains in the market, then you might as well be in index funds.

[lilavidhunter]

For those that sold in 2008 when the market corrected, they would have made their money back by 2011-2012 and those investments would now be more than double what they were to start with.

I have very little individual stocks in our portfolio and the ones we do have are ESPP’s or long term incentives from my wife’s job. Our stock position is less than 10% of our total portfolio. The bulk is in mutual funds that have a long, proven track record of beating the market. If your investments don’t atleast equal the gains in the market, then you might as well be in index funds.

What mutual funds do you own that have a long, proven track record of beating the Market if you don't mind sharing?

[Backwoods101]

Hodl!

[ntxshooter]

What mutual funds do you own that have a long, proven track record of beating the Market if you don't mind sharing?

I'd like to know too. As would Warren Buffet who has I think a one million dollar bet that goes unclaimed

[gingib]

I have made $2007 in 1.5 months in American mutual funds. Very happy but i know it's a long term deal.

That is with less then $35k invested. I am adding more monthly.

I am still learning on the stock market and trading/buyin before I add a little money in that. Too risky for me now

[MacDaddy67]

Trump 2020

go trump go

[gingib]

Trump 2020

go trump go

x2

[TxAg]

I'd like to know too. As would Warren Buffet who has I think a one million dollar bet that goes unclaimed

He won that bet

[txwhitetail]

So you never sell? Just buy and then when markets dip you buy more? I'm not trying to time the market top but markets have to dip at some point.



Zero dip in all of 2017 (or total dip under 2%) That's never happened before. Neither has 8 years of straight up.

Interest rates have to rise soon or we will get big time inflation. It's ridiculous for the entire market to go from 17k to 26k in a year. The market should not act like a penny stock.

Why do you say ridiculous so much?

[Rush2Judge]

This...Throwin Darts pretty much summed up my response. Sounds like he and I share the same philosophy. (Bogleheads). There are tons of articles out there that discuss this and I know I've seen some comparison charts. I'll see if I can find them later

Put me in the same boat. I grew tired of fretting and worrying about when and what to buy and sell. I'm all about the allocate and rebalance approach. The comment about taking the emotion out of it is spot on. Combine this with dollar cost averaging, and it can't get much easier. If the market is "too high", I automatically buy less. If it's suddenly a "deal" then I automatically buy more.

The way I see it is there are only two ways you can lose; 1) too little cash reserve in an emergency and you have to sell low (should be part of the allocation strategy) or 2) the market tanks and doesn't come back for a couple decades. In that case, I expect we will have bigger problems than the stock market. My hedge against that is land.