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Old 08-22-2017, 05:02 PM   #151
PapaBear
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now based on what you guys are saying, it doesn't look like San Angelo or west texas will get a drop out of this thing huh? if yall need a dry place, come to angelo, it will split in half and go around us if it does come this way. yall coastal people be safe!
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Old 08-22-2017, 05:26 PM   #152
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now based on what you guys are saying, it doesn't look like San Angelo or west texas will get a drop out of this thing huh? if yall need a dry place, come to angelo, it will split in half and go around us if it does come this way. yall coastal people be safe!
It doesn't look like it. However, and this is a long shot, but if you look at the long range models they are showing another one coming up the western coast of Mexico and coming across Texas. I can't even find what storm they are saying is going to do that though.
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Old 08-22-2017, 05:39 PM   #153
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It doesn't look like it. However, and this is a long shot, but if you look at the long range models they are showing another one coming up the western coast of Mexico and coming across Texas. I can't even find what storm they are saying is going to do that though.
THanks for the response. We are dry out here.
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Old 08-22-2017, 05:59 PM   #154
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wow!
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Old 08-22-2017, 06:06 PM   #155
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Thanks for the information. Reminded me that it's time to buy a generator so I just picked one up. Needed one for the deer lease camper, anyway.

Will be keeping an eye on it like everyone else in its path.
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Old 08-22-2017, 06:52 PM   #156
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THanks for the response. We are dry out here.
Long way out, date is at the top.


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Old 08-22-2017, 06:54 PM   #157
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This should just about be clearing the coast and getting back over water. Starting to get its act together a little bit more, and It should be go time for slow and steady development over next day or two. As it approaches the western gulf is when it COULD really take off.

As well, 18zGFS track looks very similar to the latest Euro, and still just hammers Texas with rain..

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Old 08-22-2017, 07:33 PM   #158
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Tuesday afternoon briefing from Jeff Lindner - HCCFD. Sorry for the long post but this is good info..


***Hurricane landfall along the TX coast increasing likely Friday or Saturday***

Review hurricane response plans and be fully prepared to enact those plans starting tomorrow.

Discussion:
Satellite images show an increasingly well defined surface circulation across the NW Yucatan currently that will be moving over the southern Gulf of Mexico in the next several hours. The system currently lacks any deep convection near the center with thunderstorms currently displaced to the north along the northern coast of the Yucatan. The circulation is moving toward the NW around 10-12mph and this motion is expected to continue.

Track:
There has been little change in the forecast track reasoning today with a general NW track toward the TX coast expected Wed-Fri. Major global models continue to be in decent agreement moving Harvey into a weakness over the TX coast between a building ridge of high pressure over the SW US and high pressure over the SE US and a trough across the Great Lakes. Landfall locations continue to shift around with each model run, but the main consensus continues to be in the region between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay.

The steering flow nearly collapses as Harvey reaches the coast and expect a decrease in forward speed as the system moves inland over the coastal bend on Friday night. This is where the forecast becomes greatly complicated as Harvey becomes trapped in a weak steering regime across SC/SE TX into the early portion of next week. The system is effectively left to meander and loop somewhere in the region bounded by Matagorda Bay, Austin, and Galveston. Eventually it appears Harvey will slowly track E to ENE either along the coast or inland of the coast across SE TX Saturday-Tuesday.

Intensity:
Conditions appear favorable for intensification of Harvey up to landfall on the TX coast. All parameters appear to be satisfied including warm SST’s, 200mb high pressure over the center of the system, potential dual outflow channels to the NE and SW of the center. It is possible that a period of rapid intensification could occur as Harvey nears the middle TX coast on Friday. Intensity forecast skills are poor especially when dealing with rapid intensification…this aspect will need to be monitored closely over on Thursday and Friday as Harvey approaches. Current coordinated NHC/WPC positions bring s minimal hurricane into the coast in the reach between Corpus and Port O Connor Friday evening.

Impacts:
Without any sort of NHC track guidance the following impacts are based on the TCVN (consensus model track) with storm surge forecast off ET surge, but I have cut it back some based on the latest GFS run. Have also taken a good look at the cat 1 SLOSH output for a NW tracking hurricane into just W of Matagorda Bay and merging those values with ET surge seems to be a good compromise at the moment. Additionally, there has been some coordination with the storm surge unit at NHC via the local WFO today. Rainfall has been coordinated with local WFO’s and WPC…mainly to encourage WPC to raise expected totals.

Rainfall:
I have never seen the GFS and ECWMF models forecasting such a large amount of rainfall over such a large area. Widespread rainfall amounts of 8-12 inches is likely with isolated totals of 20 inches or more. River, creek, bayou, and flash flooding would be a given with totals of this magnitude. Unlike so many of the flood events we deal with across this area where isolated areas get the very high totals…the potential here is for a very large area to see excessive amounts of rainfall.

Widespread: 8-12 inches (all areas)

Isolated: 20 inches +

Storm Surge:
Will start to see increasing tides Thursday afternoon and possible we may hit 3.0 ft total water level Thursday afternoon/evening especially Matagorda Bay southward toward Mustang Island. Will go with total water levels Friday rising to 4.0-5.0 feet along all of the upper and middle coast and likely nearing 6.0 feet around Matagorda Bay. 4.5 feet is our critical warning threshold along much of the upper coast for the start of impacts and think we will hit those levels on Friday especially Matagorda Bay. Overwash and coastal flooding appears likely Friday from Palacios southward including Matagorda Island and along the west side of Matagorda Bay.

Tides will increase Friday night across the coast NE of Palacios as SE winds pile water and wave action onto the coast. Will build to 4.0-5.5 feet Friday night along Brazoria, Galveston, and SE Harris coast with overwash likely on the west end of Galveston and Bolivar. With the continued onshore flow well into Saturday and Sunday tides will only worsen over the weekend as water becomes trapped in the bays…especially the western side of Galveston Bay. Certainly looking at potential coastal flooding around Clear Lake, Kemah, Seabrook, Galveston Island, Bolivar on Saturday…but don’t want to go much more than 5.5-6.0 feet total water level at this time as a lot of factors are in play.

Matagorda Bay: 4-5 ft (Friday/Saturday)

Galveston Bay: 4-5 ft (late Friday/Saturday)

Gulf Beaches: 4.5-5.5 ft (Friday/Saturday)

Onset of 3.0 ft total water level rise Thursday afternoon/evening

Winds:
A lot of uncertainty with this aspect.

Tropical storm conditions (40mph sustained) will begin to reach the middle coast on Friday around midday and spread inland into the evening hours. Will bring Jackson, Matagorda, Calhoun, and Wharton Counties into the TS force winds by Friday evening and build to hurricane force (75mph sustained) over Calhoun County southward to near Corpus Friday night. Could be very near hurricane conditions into much of Matagorda Bay Friday night and possibly Matagorda County with tropical storm conditions up to Galveston by Saturday morning. If the system does in fact turn NE/ENE just inland this will bring tropical storm and potential hurricane conditions across a larger portion of SE TX.

Should get better details on this tomorrow if NHC starts advisories.

Actions:
Hurricane plans should be fully prepared to be enacted on Wednesday including fully stocked hurricane kits.

Ride out teams should be notified and activation of COOP’s is recommended starting Wednesday.

Preparations should include the potential for loss of power and prolonged excessive rainfall and flooding along with prolonged high coastal tides. Some areas near the coast may become cut-off as early as Friday.

Significant rises on area rivers, creeks, and bayous is a real threat and residents living in flood prone areas should be prepared for rising water and potentially significant flooding.

Note:
GIV upper air mission is underway over the Gulf of Mexico which should help firm up model guidance for the 12Z runs on Wednesday…some of the samples may get into the 00Z runs this evening.

USAF/NHC have several C-130 53rd missions planned into Harvey starting tomorrow and this will continue up to landfall…so there will be nearly constant checking on intensity trends.

Tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches and/or warnings may be required for portions of the TX coast on Wednesday
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Old 08-22-2017, 07:34 PM   #159
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Great info here. Thanks.


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Old 08-22-2017, 07:40 PM   #160
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I'm sitting on the bullseye. Husband "prepped" today with water and mainly canned raviolis. Lol
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Old 08-22-2017, 07:50 PM   #161
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Well crap I guess my hunting spot will be flooded for awhile
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:12 PM   #162
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My nephew is graduating from boot camp in s/a this weekend. Doesn't sound like good traveling for my mom dad and sister. Prayers to you folks in that area!

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Old 08-22-2017, 08:15 PM   #163
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Now GFS has it meandering around the south central area of Texas, looping back to the Gulf, picking up a little energy and going into Lousiana
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:20 PM   #164
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Yea until there is a low level coc the models will be all over the map. Praying for a fast moving tropical storm.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:28 PM   #165
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Even if it is missing us in West Texas and the Panhandle, we are getting a **** floater right now and suppose to be a lot more rain the next 3 days. We are well above our yearly average.

All of you on the coast and in the path of this, maybe, keep your heads down, stay safe and hope nothing bad happens.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:34 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by offthemap View Post
That's insane. I'm planning on going to a bachelor party in SA this weekend. Anyone from that neck of the woods have any insight as to whether it'll be difficult to get out of town with that much rainfall?
I went to SA back in 01 when we had all that rain 4th of July weekend, was like 18+ inches. If it gets that much again I would just avoid it. Almost impossible to get around in.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:37 PM   #167
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Awesome due to leave on an elk hunt in 8 days. My trailer and boat live in POC....
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:39 PM   #168
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Thanks for all the info guys!


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Old 08-22-2017, 08:45 PM   #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish_25 View Post
I went to SA back in 01 when we had all that rain 4th of July weekend, was like 18+ inches. If it gets that much again I would just avoid it. Almost impossible to get around in.
All depends on the track.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:51 PM   #170
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My wife bought me tics to lyle lovett Fri night in sa, just my luck.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:03 PM   #171
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I had a flounder trip booked from months ago for Saturday night. Guess I'll just have to stay home and watch the fight.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:04 PM   #172
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Gonna drive down to rockport tomorrow and get my boat and travel trailer and get them home.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:04 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Jason Slocum View Post
Beware where you park on campus and around corpus. The campus parking lots flood easily with a little rain. I'd park in the garage if you're coming on campus and its raining heavy.

Jason Slocum
Thanks for heads up Jason!
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:06 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by Mudslinger View Post
Even if it is missing us in West Texas and the Panhandle, we are getting a **** floater right now and suppose to be a lot more rain the next 3 days. We are well above our yearly average.

All of you on the coast and in the path of this, maybe, keep your heads down, stay safe and hope nothing bad happens.
Wettest August of my life I think! But.... look below

Quote:
Originally Posted by adam_p View Post
Long way out, date is at the top.


That pacific hurricane carries moisture right smack on top of us. Seems like we had one of those in Sept 2010 right before we had 4 yrs of drought....
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:08 PM   #175
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Before a drought, we always get flooded. Could be the start of a drought! Hopefully not, but only the weather Gods know!
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:09 PM   #176
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Now GFS has it meandering around the south central area of Texas, looping back to the Gulf, picking up a little energy and going into Lousiana


Multiple models have shown that all day
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:10 PM   #177
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All depends on the track.
The reason for the IF.
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:45 PM   #178
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Yep I am home in Water Valley, it only rains when I am gone. This should be a safe dry spot this week.




Quote:
Originally Posted by PapaBear View Post
now based on what you guys are saying, it doesn't look like San Angelo or west texas will get a drop out of this thing huh? if yall need a dry place, come to angelo, it will split in half and go around us if it does come this way. yall coastal people be safe!
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:45 PM   #179
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levis input.......https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:47 PM   #180
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Multiple models have shown that all day
Models have been all over the place. This is just the first time I've seen it go that route on GFS
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Old 08-22-2017, 09:53 PM   #181
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Beat me to it! Great video by Levi explaining the ULL I mentioned yesterday. I was hoping it would dive farther south pulling the system farther to the north. Unfortunately it has retracted allowing the nasty side to sit on Tx.

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Old 08-22-2017, 10:00 PM   #182
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Thanks for the link. He did a great job of explaining the potential situation in the top video.
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:29 PM   #183
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Hope this thing has a track to South Texas. We don't need the rain here in Houston.


Amen brother. Everyone please say a prayer for me and my family. We can't take another flood


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Old 08-22-2017, 10:33 PM   #184
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Tagged
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:48 PM   #185
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Amen brother. Everyone please say a prayer for me and my family. We can't take another flood


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No one needs a flood but the Houston area does need rain. Tanks are dropping and fields are burning up.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:33 PM   #186
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Thanks for the update Johnny. We will be making preparations.
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:57 PM   #187
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Will be watching closely. Fired up my generator tonight for an hour and she's purring well.were stocked on most things but will need fuel.
My boats in Sargent and will end up going and getting it depending how things develop hopefully just a tropical storm I really hate boarding a house on a ladder and my help (brother in law) is at Disneyland until monday so I also have his horses/pigs/dogs to think about. Hopefully this passes quickly. Looks like Texas is gonna get a lot of rain. Hope we don't get the wind
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Old 08-22-2017, 11:59 PM   #188
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GFS 00z run just in.



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Old 08-23-2017, 12:55 AM   #189
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When's landfall?? Maybe I missed that part.
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Old 08-23-2017, 05:26 AM   #190
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In for some good news......
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Old 08-23-2017, 05:35 AM   #191
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Appears both the Euro and GFS models have shifted east on the last run.

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Old 08-23-2017, 05:50 AM   #192
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Quote:
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Appears both the Euro and GFS models have shifted east on the last run.

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How Far East ?
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Old 08-23-2017, 06:08 AM   #193
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How Far East ?
Not much but 50-100 miles over open water with good conditions and a slow moving storm it could possibly intensify. I honestly don't think will know much more of anything until later this evening after Recon flies and gather some data. It does appear the rain amounts have backed off so that's a good thing. There is actually some dry air being inhaled on the SW side and some shear on the NW side that will hopefully lower the intensity and rainfall amounts.

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Old 08-23-2017, 06:36 AM   #194
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonesplitter View Post
Not much but 50-100 miles over open water with good conditions and a slow moving storm it could possibly intensify. I honestly don't think will know much more of anything until later this evening after Recon flies and gather some data. It does appear the rain amounts have backed off so that's a good thing. There is actually some dry air being inhaled on the SW side and some shear on the NW side that will hopefully lower the intensity and rainfall amounts.

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Well here's to hoping ol Harvey keep sucking in that dry air and he minimize the rainfall! I would like to see the whole **** thing just go away but that's probably not going to happen.

Thanks for the update and I'll be looking forward to the next one!
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Old 08-23-2017, 07:03 AM   #195
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Watching and praying for everyone involved. Due to development around me I have a huge run off issues. If we get more than 5" in two hours, water is coming in the house. I'm getting a sump pump installed tomorrow and I'm renting a gas powered pump on Friday. I'm gonna try to be as prepared as possible. I see a few sleepless nights in my future


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Old 08-23-2017, 07:11 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by Fling em View Post
Well here's to hoping ol Harvey keep sucking in that dry air and he minimize the rainfall! I would like to see the whole **** thing just go away but that's probably not going to happen.

Thanks for the update and I'll be looking forward to the next one!
x1000000000000000000000
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Old 08-23-2017, 07:15 AM   #197
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I wouldn't mind a couple inches of rain but not a 3 day t*rd floater. I guess today and tomorrow will tell the story an what Harvey becomes.
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Old 08-23-2017, 07:37 AM   #198
ccbluewater
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Rainfall totals still looking extreme. This from this morning's GFS.

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Old 08-23-2017, 07:37 AM   #199
systemnt
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Weather reports on the drive in this morning say we should have our Ark's built no later than Saturday....
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Old 08-23-2017, 07:48 AM   #200
TexasBob
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https://spacecityweather.com/harvey-...ast/#more-4848

Not sure I have ever seen so many forecasts of 10-20" inches of rain. Isn't that usually a look back after forecasting potential heavy rains and getting even more?
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